Open 897 - Cop 17er [DAY 6]

[Aristeia]

and this bella case/push came when Dann had voted for Dave and Dave was the leading wagon so if Dave is town and Bella is mafia - strategically it doesn't even make sense for her to push this case against John Wayne[empty slot] at that point because the pressure is on Dave who is also town.

if Dave/Bella was a team then maybe it would make sense for her to make this bad push but I don't see why she'd do it for a town!dave

[Aristeia]

Any reason for all the bella townreads or is it just her not scumposting

Didn't u put her in too

Yeah but she's there for not scumposting so we wanna know if we missed something that made bella obvtown

I think Bella was the useful townie for scum who wanted Ari dead yesterday.

I agree with this assessment

the ari wagon yesterday sprang up right after I argued with Bella so I feel like it means scum thought they could get her vote on me and kill me there - the votes as I remember were Davesaz/Lemon/UserPython before Dannflor put his foot down and said no ari kill today so I kinda think it points to Python or Dave being mafia since if it was 2 T 1 S wagon it would probably pick up a 4th scum vote and maybe Bella joins to make 5. Python hopped on in a really weird way too and hopped off after Dannflor said no to ari being limmed.

[davesaz]

like i am explaining to you my viewpoint on why the conclusions you draw are wrong and how i believe mafia play in that game state and the reasons why mafia play that way.

maybe im wrong and you're right and john wayne is mafia

maybe you're mafia who is making things up.

i do not know either way i am uninformed.

so the best i can do is explain to you my perspective as to why i disagree with you and your conclusions.

im not really sure what more you expect from me here.

Ari, you thought Bella could be mafia here, and this is a reaction to the same post where you now think it's towny. Wouldn't lemon flipping scum after Bella's 4725 make that post more likely to come from scum?

[usesPython]

Any reason for all the bella townreads or is it just her not scumposting

Didn't u put her in too

Yeah but she's there for not scumposting so we wanna know if we missed something that made bella obvtown

I think Bella was the useful townie for scum who wanted Ari dead yesterday.

I agree with this assessment

the ari wagon yesterday sprang up right after I argued with Bella so I feel like it means scum thought they could get her vote on me and kill me there - the votes as I remember were Davesaz/Lemon/UserPython before Dannflor put his foot down and said no ari kill today so I kinda think it points to Python or Dave being mafia since if it was 2 T 1 S wagon it would probably pick up a 4th scum vote and maybe Bella joins to make 5. Python hopped on in a really weird way too and hopped off after Dannflor said no to ari being limmed.

Did this happen between votecounts cause I can't find you having more than 2 votes at any point after day 2 this game

[RCEnigma]

Mueh, ht, Ari and gamma voted for nearys on some pretty bad reasoning. Considering that's confirmed town and flipped town, I'd eat my hat if one of Ari/the ht slot wasn't scum.

Because the case was bullshit, Ari, frankly. Do you disagree?

Youbare telling me that scum get the chance to sheep conf!town onto lhf that other people had fairly low down their reads list and every one of them said nah, not today?

About the flash wagon on nearys. It was bad.

Meuh made a pretty bad case on nearys.

Mueh, you, gamma and hu tao voted for her basically in reaction.

I don't think four town and no scum look at the shit case and vote.

Considering one of the four is conf town and the other is flipped town, I'd really struggle to see that scum wouldn't jump on the opportunity to get an elim through (I will check who was actually being wagoned at the time as well)

Thereofor, I feel more Sus of you and Hu. Considering I was fine voting for both of you anyway, I may be conf!biased but I think the flash wagon is at least worth discussing.

Ari, that's an awful lot of words to exceptionally miss the point.

The thing I don't like about the case is that it lacks depth and everyone was... fine with that?

In fact, I think I'm the only person who went on the ask ney about her meta, her experience with Titus, etc., and it was her responses to that that made me doubt my sr: she wasnt trying to convince me of her take, even when I flat out disagreed with what she was saying about Titus's recent scum game - it felt like she was just stating her truth.

So of course the votes on look more opportunistic. Town, to Me, want to understand what's going on. It's what I'm not seeing in our interactions - you don't want to understand, you just wanna argue. You did the same to yessiree.


When I made my points about yess, although he started off being really 'wtf is this ' he later came back to 'meh, it's bad but I can why town would see this and think what Bella's thinking ' that thought process of 'can I see why someone would do that'. It's what I try to do as town so I tr it more naturally.

I expect you to go 'hey, it's not unreasonable that Bella thinks that four people flash wagonning someone without any apparent critical thought or engagement is a bit sus'.

It's not about being informed. This is what I said earlier to you: you keep adding in random stuff that feels really agenda led that isn't anything to do with the conversation. It stresses me out because I can't tell if you are mafia madly deflecting, or just blinkered town, or just massively defensive for??

It feels like it did with yessiree, that anything that looks like vaguely critical of you, you just kick off about. It's just a normal part of mafia and also the process of sorting people.

^ this sequence is why I think Bella is town in this game. Like she put forth a pretty flawed case[imo] about how Naerys was LHF and people were sheeping conftown!meuh onto Naerys!lhf and that there must be mafia in those sheep - and when I pushed back on her case being bad - she doubled down and got upset at me for fighting her and not trying to understand her. I feel like this shows she

geniunely believes

her case about - which would necessitate that she actually sees Naerys as an LHF slot and not a partnered slot.

I agree, it’s what I was alluding to with the hee vs you thing.

But, it’s a similar situation to why tangerine gave me the ick. It’s such like a weird interaction that it sticks out and it makes sense from multiple perspectives.

Example:

Dave!scum is gunned by town!bella for reasons they think are weak but Bella doesn’t let go and it forces Dave to hold on to a Bella scumread out of necessity.

Also in the Dave!scum world, Dave needs to keep at least one reasonably townread player in the lim pool to up their chances and Bella is a decent choice to that end. It’s also convenient since they’ve had some back and forth previously.

Scum!bella, idk I don’t have a strong case for scum Bella past day 2 but up to 2 they were very Dave focused and hyper fixating on a specific player is always going to be scummy to me.

They could both be town but I’d expect them to come around to them being tvt at some point if that was the case OR scum would point out it was tvt for townpoints somewhere down the line and neither happened.

[davesaz]

Spoiler: data

734 DragonEater70 vote Aristeia 1 was yessiree 2
736 Doctor Drew vote Aristeia 2 was Titus 2
748 Doctor Drew vote Firebringer 4 was Aristeia 1
773 Enchant vote Dannflor 1 was Doctor Drew 1
977 Doctor Drew vote Aristeia 2 was Firebringer 3
980 Theta Alpine vote Aristeia 3 was yessiree 1
982 usesPython vote Aristeia 4 was Firebringer 2
1013 Bingle vote Aristeia 5
1025 Aristeia vote usesPython 1 was lemon.tangerine 0
1062 Firebringer vote lemon.tangerine 1 was Titus 1
1078 Enchant vote Aristeia 5 was Dannflor 0

Ari had a 5-wagon on d1, checking later days.

[RCEnigma]

I guess to get more to the point on the part that pings me is the longevity of the mutual scumreads and nothing really coming from it.

[Aristeia]

like i am explaining to you my viewpoint on why the conclusions you draw are wrong and how i believe mafia play in that game state and the reasons why mafia play that way.

maybe im wrong and you're right and john wayne is mafia

maybe you're mafia who is making things up.

i do not know either way i am uninformed.

so the best i can do is explain to you my perspective as to why i disagree with you and your conclusions.

im not really sure what more you expect from me here.

Ari, you thought Bella could be mafia here, and this is a reaction to the same post where you now think it's towny. Wouldn't lemon flipping scum after Bella's 4725 make that post more likely to come from scum?

no the point I was making that Bella's post makes sense if she's scum and Lemon is town because she's seeing Lemon as an LHF slot when its not clear to me at all that Lemon is town lhf. my suspicion atp was that Bella was mafia tmiing lemon as town - if lemon is mafia it makes bella's line of play extremely unlikely if partnered with Lemon

[davesaz]

Spoiler: ari wagon d3 data

4699 Bellaphant vote Bingle 4 was Enchant 0
4717 Dannflor vote lemon.tangerine 1 was davesaz 2
4719 Firebringer vote lemon.tangerine 2 was davesaz 1
4725 davesaz vote Aristeia 1 was Bingle 3
4728 usesPython vote davesaz 2 was Bingle 2
4729 RCEnigma vote Theta Alpine 3
4747 usesPython vote Aristeia 2 was davesaz 1
4751 lemon.tangerine vote Aristeia 3
4762 usesPython vote yessiree 1 was Aristeia 2
4763 usesPython vote davesaz 2 was yessiree 0
4765 davesaz vote yessiree 1 was Aristeia 1

Ari got to 3 after John Wayne (Bingle) got to 4, and before the move to lemon. Theta Alpine was also at 3 during this stretch.

Pedit: you don't think scum, especially townread scum, would try to call their partner lhf in defense? Never heard of that? I see it often...

[Aristeia]

no because Lemon wasn't even being attacked at that point - the most votes was on you[3]

[Aristeia]

I just feel like she really believed Lemon was town!LHF in the way she approached that argument - I don't think she has the personality to double down on a theory she

knows

is wrong

[Aristeia]

plus Dann's conclusion from my spat with Bella was that she was town for it and he knows her a lot better than I do so I am somewhat relying on him there

[Aristeia]

4699 Bellaphant vote Bingle 4 was Enchant 0
4717 Dannflor vote lemon.tangerine 1 was davesaz 2
4719 Firebringer vote lemon.tangerine 2 was davesaz 1
4725 davesaz vote Aristeia 1 was Bingle 3
4728 usesPython vote davesaz 2 was Bingle 2
4729 RCEnigma vote Theta Alpine 3
4747 usesPython vote Aristeia 2 was davesaz 1
4751 lemon.tangerine vote Aristeia 3

yea the context here was that Bella/Me began fighting about Bella's Bingle push with her logic - Dannflor decided to start pushing Lemon - then Dave votes me and Lemon/Python jump on and try to shove me - Dann comes in and shuts down my wagon by saying I'm town so it makes sense to me that Lemon/Python saw the threat from Dannflor pushing Lemon and decided it would be a good oppurtunity to push me when I'm fighting bella and hopefully get her vote and maybe even Yessirree's

[usesPython]

4699 Bellaphant vote Bingle 4 was Enchant 0
4717 Dannflor vote lemon.tangerine 1 was davesaz 2
4719 Firebringer vote lemon.tangerine 2 was davesaz 1
4725 davesaz vote Aristeia 1 was Bingle 3
4728 usesPython vote davesaz 2 was Bingle 2
4729 RCEnigma vote Theta Alpine 3
4747 usesPython vote Aristeia 2 was davesaz 1
4751 lemon.tangerine vote Aristeia 3

yea the context here was that Bella/Me began fighting about Bella's Bingle push with her logic - Dannflor decided to start pushing Lemon - then Dave votes me and Lemon/Python jump on and try to shove me - Dann comes in and shuts down my wagon by saying I'm town so it makes sense to me that Lemon/Python saw the threat from Dannflor pushing Lemon and decided it would be a good oppurtunity to push me when I'm fighting bella and hopefully get her vote and maybe even Yessirree's

I'd like to remind you that we're perfectly capable of ignoring the conftown to push who we want like we did with furtive

[usesPython]

Also ignores there's the much easier and bigger wagon of Theta during that time which would be way easier to force through

[Aristeia]

I'd like to remind you that we're perfectly capable of ignoring the conftown to push who we want like we did with furtive

yes because Meuh was afk and 2 days inactive and didn't care about the game

Dannflor was extremely loud and present in threat to shut things down he didn't like

completely different scenarios

[Aristeia]

Also ignores there's the much easier and bigger wagon of Theta during that time which would be way easier to force through

I'm glad you're evaluating which wagons are easier to shove through rather than who the mafia are A+

[Aristeia]

like the whole defense of "oh I wasn't doing this thing like trying to kill you when it's possible to kill you because I could easily kill this other person over here instead" is just unconvincing to me.

when you are mafia you can only choose to kill one person at a time. Whether person A or person B or person C is

easier

is a subjective evaluation.

What I do know is that you didn't vote me to figure me out or anything you just did it because you felt like it and you never really explained your reasoning for doing so. in a vaccuum it looks pretty clear to me that you're planning to take advantage of in thread conflict to shove me to protect lemon.

[usesPython]

We're already voting for mafia, we're waiting on the lims to start coming through

[usesPython]

like the whole defense of "oh I wasn't doing this thing like trying to kill you when it's possible to kill you because I could easily kill this other person over here instead" is just unconvincing to me.

The defense isn't "we weren't trying to kill you" because at the time we def were trying to kill you otherwise we wouldn't have a vote there. The defense is that the killing you part wasn't to save lemon because there's way easier ways to do so than trying to kill you

[Aristeia]

We're already voting for mafia, we're waiting on the lims to start coming through

wdym

[Aristeia]

like the whole defense of "oh I wasn't doing this thing like trying to kill you when it's possible to kill you because I could easily kill this other person over here instead" is just unconvincing to me.

The defense isn't "we weren't trying to kill you" because at the time we def were trying to kill you otherwise we wouldn't have a vote there. The defense is that the killing you part wasn't to save lemon because there's way easier ways to do so than trying to kill you

why would it be easier to kill theta rather than me when I have conflicts with Bella+Yessiree and Bella is vocal in her suspicion of me and Dave just voted me

[usesPython]

like the whole defense of "oh I wasn't doing this thing like trying to kill you when it's possible to kill you because I could easily kill this other person over here instead" is just unconvincing to me.

The defense isn't "we weren't trying to kill you" because at the time we def were trying to kill you otherwise we wouldn't have a vote there. The defense is that the killing you part wasn't to save lemon because there's way easier ways to do so than trying to kill you

why would it be easier to kill theta rather than me when I have conflicts with Bella+Yessiree and Bella is vocal in her suspicion of me and Dave just voted me

Because Bella and Dave have no clout at that point whereas joining the Theta wagon (Theta has no clout) with Drew, yessiree, and RCEnigma who just got bonus clout after d2 is a much stronger position to be in

[Aristeia]

like just looking at that on its face you have lemon+you+dave + bella(maybe) + yessirree(maybe) add in your 3rd member + enchant autohammer = 7

why is theta the easier push for you? who is going to vote for theta with you?

[Aristeia]

Because Bella and Dave have no clout at that point whereas joining the Theta wagon (Theta has no clout) with Drew, yessiree, and RCEnigma who just got bonus clout after d2 is a much stronger position to be in

clout doesnt matter Bella+dave have votes