Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[Jebus]

Well, then we'd probably lose our vig for sure seeing as the doctor is gone... But at least the mafia/SK won't be taking down another pro-town player.

Or the vig would kill EA, in which case we end up better off. I dunno.

As for niv, I'm all for it.

unvote
Vote: niv

@Llama - I saw that, got nothing to say, though, 'cept unvote.

[Niv]

read and post now in progress

[LlamaFluff]

vote: LlamaFluff

How do you know that the town are in lylo with the Greek mafia? I say scum slip again.

Please use some logic about what the setup is. We have three dead Jap mafia and still four kills a night, which means that there is four (or more) from that faction. Balanced factions would mean likely three Greek mafia left, which with four NKs can make it lylo at 11 players since a town lynch followed by four non-greek deaths leaves it at six players, three Greek.

[BlakAdder]

Fair enough.

unvote

Just applying pressure for the sake of experimentation.

[Sierra]

That was a very confusing read, thanks to Jebus faking results. Still, with EA confirming having killed CKD, I believe he's really a watcher.

I agree with others saying that it might be useful to figure out which killing method belongs to which faction. I tried doing that the previous day already, but with the information night 3 gave us I'm going to have to review that attempt.

killed

15- Stef - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 1
13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 2
20- Rush - vanilla townie - killed on Night 3

murdered

16- ooba - cult leader - murdered on Night 1
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member - murdered on Night 2
07- curiouskarmadog - vanilla townie - murdered on Night 3

assassinated

09- Electra - greek mafia member - assassinated on Night 2
04- armlx - vanilla townie - assassinated on Night 3

slain

21- Tarhalindur - tracker - slain on Night 2
11- hasdgfas (TheSweatpantsNinja) - roleblocker - slain on Night 3

I previously assumed that a vig wouldn't kill night 1, but the deaths of Stef, GW and Rush really look to be the work of a vig. There is always the chance that it's an SK (or even Greek mafia) trying to pass as a vig, but I'm putting my money on it really being a vig.

EA murdered ooba, sekinj and CDK. He claims to be vig. I find that very hard to believe. The reasons he gives for targeting the three of them all come down to "I didn't agree with them" in some way. When asked why he didn't vote for a more obvious choice like Rush or massive last night he answers:

I of course would have shot either Rush or massive if they weren't in the duel, making killing them a potential waste.

From what I understood, he had his chance to send in your target

after

the duel took place. His excuse is void.
I think EA is either SK or Greek mafia.

I don't think the 'assassinated' or the 'slain' kills were done by a vig. The only way I could see the 'assassinated' kills done by a vig, would be if the vig was springlullaby, because she was the only one expression any serious suspicion on armlx. Electra could have been killed by a vig. These kills could just have well been done by an SK or Japanese mafia though. The 'slain' kills could have been done by anyone but a vig. Tar and hasdgfas were both strong town-players in my eyes, so I see no reason why a vig would target them.

Speaking of springlullaby, why hasn't she been replaced? Her last post was Nov 27th:

I have limited time to devote to mafia right now and for the next week and will probably give my attention to games I'm more engaged in. If that is unsatisfactory, I should be replaced.

It is unsatisfactory. She should be replaced.

Mod

, any word on this?

In conclusion, lynching EA will result in the death of a SK or Greek Mafia for 90% sure. This is obviously the most rational action to take.

Vote EA.

Hey wait... Are people voting Niv? Are people really finally voting Niv, prev. Gorckat, prev. Seph, aka. Mr "OMG I'm busted - I'd better replace out"?!
THANK YOU!

Unvote. Vote Niv.

[ShadowGirl]

I'm not too keen on voting EA at this point seeing as there still is a possibility is a vig (and no one else has stepped forward).

I'd very much like to see spring come back or... at least have her replaced. :/

Niv is now at L-1 (three votes and his self vote), and I implore that no one hammer him until he's posted/claimed.

[Claus]

Mod

, any word on this?

Spring Lullaby has picked all her recent prods. I'll prod her again, if she picks it and doesn't post in thread, I'll replace her.

[Jahudo]

This is what I thought about Niv's predecessors from reading:

Seraphim - His posts were mostly setup talk and jester theory but no opinion on scum or analysis on players. His suspicion on Empking looked to be limited to the possibility he was a jester and his hammer had the feel that he knew Emp wasn't a jester.

He could be Jester; I don't care. I'll deal with that next day.

This really confused me. If Emp was a jester he would've just won the game so how do you deal with that the next day? He might've meant endgame, but saying it doesn't bother him seems to go against his earlier concerns.

Tar, just remember, this was your idea.

I really don't like that he was passing off his actions onto another player. It feels like he knows what's going to happen and he's not expecting scum. This sentence looked far more scummy to me than anything else Seraphim had said. I also think his lack of opinion early on was anti-town and easy for scum to do because it isn't policed as easily in a large group.

gorckat: It does look counterproductive that he is trying to defend his predecessor, he spends three posts on it but didn't have alot of opinion on other people at that point so it seems like he's purposefully prioritizing from what he sees.

His vote on massive does not explain a whole lot. He says that massive is willing to vote anyone. I didn't get a strong feel of that from anyone on my first read so I'll have to look back at a few people. But gorckat didn't give examples of this so his vote does not look like good scumhunting.

I didn't see gorckat as too scummy because his opinions didn't get to develop on a wagon or jump to a new one, but I can see his motivation for just barely suspecting two people who had several spotlights on them at the time (massive and ShadowGirl).

I think Niv can turn things around and look pro-town so I'm interested in his post.

[farside22]

The problem with if EA is a vig or SK should be noted that most SK have nk immunity in games like this. I don't like the idea of leaving him alone based on the kill flavor.

unvote:
vote: EA

Really Jebus didn't like the lie on BA considering most including myself still think he is part of the Jap group.

[LlamaFluff]

@farside - EA doesnt get lynched if no one counters vig. If you are vig, counter him. I already how showed taking out a faction works given the WIFOM situation it makes for scum involving their next NK.

[farside22]

@farside - EA doesnt get lynched if no one counters vig. If you are vig, counter him. I already how showed taking out a faction works given the WIFOM situation it makes for scum involving their next NK.

You want if someone is the vig to claim? Is that smart considering that unless niv is the last jap that there is a chance that person could be killed? Sorry but that is the facts. No I'm not counter claiming I'm just saying that outing a PR is bad.
Why would the vig kill CKD? That's who Jebus targeted and EA admitted to. I never saw CKD as scum in any way shape or form. I want a reason and a valid one on why EA targeted who he did.

[LlamaFluff]

First Niv isnt going to be Jap mafia, I am pretty sure of that on connections alone and how much we knew when Seph made is slips. EA I dont know what he is going to be, if its anti town, there is a higher chance of non-Greek. If we can take out someone who has a chance of finishing a faction at the expense of getting our vig in the open, it is worth it to me.

[farside22]

First Niv isnt going to be Jap mafia, I am pretty sure of that on connections alone and how much we knew when Seph made is slips. EA I dont know what he is going to be, if its anti town, there is a higher chance of non-Greek. If we can take out someone who has a chance of finishing a faction at the expense of getting our vig in the open, it is worth it to me.

How about an answer from EA on his choice of kill first. Humor me on this.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah fair enough, just given my read and guesses on what the groups were overnight, coupled with how people are acting today make me certain that Niv is scum.

Still hold true what I said about no counter-vig means we dont lynch EA. A scum-scum-SK-SK-cult setup is just wow.

[Jebus]

It happens, though in that case the SK's would likely be killable at night, in which case the other SK should be able to kill EA. SK's are generally town-aligned until they're the only scum left.

[Erratus Apathos]

Unvote
Vote: massive

From what I understood, he had his chance to send in your target after the duel took place. His excuse is void.

God damnit you're right. I sent in my action before.

@farside - EA doesnt get lynched if no one counters vig. If you are vig, counter him. I already how showed taking out a faction works given the WIFOM situation it makes for scum involving their next NK.

You want if someone is the vig to claim? Is that smart considering that unless niv is the last jap that there is a chance that person could be killed? Sorry but that is the facts. No I'm not counter claiming I'm just saying that outing a PR is bad.
Why would the vig kill CKD? That's who Jebus targeted and EA admitted to. I never saw CKD as scum in any way shape or form. I want a reason and a valid one on why EA targeted who he did.

CKD dismissed my D2 Cybele vote to try to get me to switch to BA, despite my case on Cybele basically being a repeat of his D1 case on Cybele. I thought that was scum sensing a new easy target and forgetting the old one.

[LlamaFluff]

Can someone explain the massive wagon to me? When we have someone like Niv still in the game I dont understand that choice of a vote.

@Farside - If no one claims vig would you still want a EA lynch?

[springlullaby]

Hi, I'm here. I'm being terrible and getting prodded everywhere. Worst is I have a VLA coming up dec 20 to janv 2.

Posting better later.

[massive]

I think it's because I look "lynchable" ... as LlamaFluff pointed out, lynching a townie and multiple non-Greek deaths ends in a Greek victory, and as you watch people stream onto and then off of me, you get the very distinct feeling that, since I had suspicion on me yesterday (and was in the duel), that I am an easy target. That's my impression.

I think that EA's kills, while turning out to be beneficial to the town, were not made with the best town intentions. I've previously voted for Seraphim and would happily vote for Niv, so I guess we're just waiting.

[farside22]

@Farside - If no one claims vig would you still want a EA lynch?

No but seriously if I was the vig and looking at yesterday well never mind. I don't agree with EA's reason's at all. They are weak, weak reasons. However till a counter claim happens (which I really believe there is a vig out there that is not EA) I will unvote

unvote:
vote: BA

I think BA is part of the Jap group. I have no case on Niv myself. BA's interactions with past dead Jap group mafia is too hard for me to ignore.
Jebus fake claim comment about BA just muddies him which hurts the town. I really wish he had not done that. Of course BA can say he didn't target the player in question. And no I'm not buying the vanilla claim.

[Jahudo]

Still hold true what I said about no counter-vig means we dont lynch EA. A scum-scum-SK-SK-cult setup is just wow.

I looked through finished large games going back to 2005 and found a few games with 2 vigs:

• Mafia 44 – 20 players, 1 vig, 1 day vig, ? scum
  Mafia 36 – 25 players with 2 vigs, 1 five player mafia
  Mafia 33- 32 players with 2 vigs, 1 five player mafia, 1 three player mafia?
  Mafia 30 – 24 players with 2 vigs, 2 SKs on same team, 2 3-player mafias
  Mafia 27 – 30 players with 1 1-shot vig, 1 vig, 2 5-player mafis, 1 SK

Only Mafia 27 and 30 are comparable games because Mafia 30 had a 3:1 ratio of town to scum, and Mafia 27 had a 2.7:1 ratio of town to scum.

If we assume there's two 4-player mafias + 1 cult and 2 vigs (no SKs), we have a 2.67:1 town to scum ratio.

The two 4-player mafia + 1 cult + 1 SK is a 2.4:1 town to scum ratio.

I'd bet we have one of the lower town to scum ratios in the large games I looked through, although cross-killing would statistically help town. The point is, I think there's a chance of 2 vigs so a case on EA should not be pushed based on a second vig claim.

But I do agree that EA's kills do not have the best reasoning. The CKD kill looked more like getting rid of a personal threat than a town threat.

[LlamaFluff]

I still dont believe two vigs. As far as I am concerned though, EA is not going to be lynched unless someone counters him.

[Jebus]

^Bad way to go about this. We don't want our vig outed, since there'd be no docs to protect him/her.

Assume that the claim didn't happen, and go from there.

[LlamaFluff]

I still like the possibilities of the WIFOM situation where we kill SK-EA and scum have to let him live or risk getting caught by you. You indirectly act as a doctor in this game now.

[Jahudo]

Niv: How's that post coming along?

I still like the possibilities of the WIFOM situation where we kill SK-EA and scum have to let him live or risk getting caught by you. You indirectly act as a doctor in this game now.

It is a good strategy because if Jebus is town we should have some factor to increase his chances of staying alive now that his role is out there. But if Jebus is scum the only way he could be scum is with EA. I'll support outing the other vig but only later in the day.