open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[Afrayed Knott]

why are you pushing this?

Because it's much more likely the jk has a guilty than a doctor heal.

but what if the Doc protected the JK and the JK stopped the hit?

[camelCasedSnivy]

actually i want to try voting here for today

VOTE: Bellaphant

[camelCasedSnivy]

damn it afrayed knott

[Afrayed Knott]

oops my third page top.. yeah

[Afrayed Knott]

actually i want to try voting here for today

VOTE: Bellaphant

why?

[camelCasedSnivy]

actually i want to try voting here for today

VOTE: Bellaphant

why?

black flip

i didn't iso black but i think i remember bellaphant like not deciding their read on black

which would've been like normal but the e-1 looks so bad to me

[Titus]

why are you pushing this?

Because it's much more likely the jk has a guilty than a doctor heal.

but what if the Doc protected the JK and the JK stopped the hit?

That's what I am saying...so we only vote wagons from yesterday that aren't Skygazer...

[camelCasedSnivy]

i want to take into account the fact that an overturn onto black's wagon was probably not expected

[Afrayed Knott]

why are you pushing this?

Because it's much more likely the jk has a guilty than a doctor heal.

but what if the Doc protected the JK and the JK stopped the hit?

That's what I am saying...so we only vote wagons from yesterday that aren't Skygazer...

so where do we go, considering we have a day in hand, T3?

[Afrayed Knott]

i want to take into account the fact that an overturn onto black's wagon was probably not expected

I forget you are in the game, but that's down to your predecessor. where are your reads right now?

[camelCasedSnivy]

{dannflor (based off a loose skim of blacks iso), T3}
{knott (also based off of that)}
{everyone else}
{skygazer}
{bellaphant}
{me}

anyway i gotta rake the leaves from my backyard before it inevitably snows kbye

[Titus]

why are you pushing this?

Because it's much more likely the jk has a guilty than a doctor heal.

but what if the Doc protected the JK and the JK stopped the hit?

That's what I am saying...so we only vote wagons from yesterday that aren't Skygazer...

so where do we go, considering we have a day in hand, T3?

Yes.

[Titus]

That or K based on a no kill but T3 preferred unless a jk says otherwise. (Won't happen).

[Afrayed Knott]

got you. funny though that you think the JK will not say otherwise, please tell me why?

[OutWorldER]

I have not read anything yet but I pre-typed some thoughts during the night. Will properly catch up later as currently I'm occupied today.

VOTE: Afrayed Knott

Spoiler: Wall

Current Townblock: Myself, Titus, Dann, Skygazer, Project, ¿¿Bellaphant??

Project was Black's top townread, being heavily pushed by Dann, but had a lot of pushback, most of which was by Titus though, who's extremely likely to be town. Project likely to just be town.

Kurta also heavily pushed by Dann but wagon fizzled out, townread by Black, but gamestate theory presented by Dann beforehand still holds weight. Probably town?

Afrayed Knott pushed by Black in a really soft way, and Black never really tried to get anybody on the wagon. Seems very much like distancing. Most confident in this partner equity.

T3 was on the chopping block and both him and Black tried to setup a counter-wagon on Titus. Don't see a reason for Black to get off T3 if he's a mislim, and the sudden shift in reads suggest she was getting ready to bus but switched to try and counter momentum on the T3 wagon. Unless she was just trying to get Titus speed-limmed so she didn't have to deal with the NKA of night-killing her? "I'll deathtunnel Titus if T3 flips Town" feels like scum setting up a chain mislim. But why try to get Titus limmed off T3's case if you were setting up to lim Titus tommorow off a T3 mislim? Occam's Razor probably just says T3 is scum here.

Biggest suspicions in T3/Afrayed Knott. Bellaphant and Skygazer least confident townreads. Self-hammer at 24 hours left in deadline feels strange, optimal play here is to hope Town's momentum fizzles out and they no lim, thinking Black tried to make it look like Bellaphant was bussing. Weak TR though.

Skygazer vote on Black seems too early to be a bus when she could've tried to continue pushing T3 or try to add credibility to the case against Titus. Skygazer probably only scum in a Black/Skygazer/T3 world and preferred bussing Black over bussing T3, but that seems unlikely for a multitude of reasons.

[Titus]

got you. funny though that you think the JK will not say otherwise, please tell me why?

Because a jk wouldn't jail to protect here with a doctor and this many obvtown. A jk and a doc cannot protect them all. If scum fake a jk, then they just create follow the jailkeeper.

[Titus]

T3 is also hardclaimed VT so he can't.

[Afrayed Knott]

gotcha

[Afrayed Knott]

VOTE: T3

[Afrayed Knott]

T3 was on the chopping block and both him and Black tried to setup a counter-wagon on Titu

huh?

[Titus]

There is technically justification for a K wagon but I find it much more likely T3 given he was more townread.

[Afrayed Knott]

@ Ower when did I even try to set up a counter on Titus? you are so far off the reservation you need some sort of first nation cure to bring you back to reality

[Titus]

I have not read anything yet but I pre-typed some thoughts during the night. Will properly catch up later as currently I'm occupied today.

VOTE: Afrayed Knott

Spoiler: Wall - cut to relevant, brackets mine

Current Townblock: Myself, Titus, Dann, Skygazer, Project, ¿¿Bellaphant??

Kurta also heavily pushed by Dann but wagon fizzled out, townread by Black, but gamestate theory presented by Dann beforehand still holds weight. Probably town? [Postulate the K wagon fizzled due to early in the day and Black defense]

Afrayed Knott pushed by Black in a really soft way, and Black never really tried to get anybody on the wagon. Seems very much like distancing. Most confident in this partner equity. [Postulate: Black needed a town to join before pushing as Black's push was shopping for anything but T3.]

T3 was on the chopping block and both him and Black tried to setup a counter-wagon on Titus. Don't see a reason for Black to get off T3 if he's a mislim, and the sudden shift in reads suggest she was getting ready to bus but switched to try and counter momentum on the T3 wagon. Unless she was just trying to get Titus speed-limmed so she didn't have to deal with the NKA of night-killing her? "I'll deathtunnel Titus if T3 flips Town" feels like scum setting up a chain mislim. But why try to get Titus limmed off T3's case if you were setting up to lim Titus tommorow off a T3 mislim? Occam's Razor probably just says T3 is scum here. [Follow this. Why would I need to be nightkilled enough to try and fabricate suspicion where non existed?]

Biggest suspicions in T3/Afrayed Knott. Bellaphant and Skygazer least confident townreads. Self-hammer at 24 hours left in deadline feels strange, optimal play here is to hope Town's momentum fizzles out and they no lim, thinking Black tried to make it look like Bellaphant was bussing. Weak TR though. [Postulate: Black needs all the people who were on T3 and shifted to Black to turn on each other.]

Skygazer vote on Black seems too early to be a bus when she could've tried to continue pushing T3 or try to add credibility to the case against Titus. Skygazer probably only scum in a Black/Skygazer/T3 world and preferred bussing Black over bussing T3, but that seems unlikely for a multitude of reasons.[Postulate: Town weren't biting on limming me and there were town biting on Skygazer enough to make it viable if town split focus between T3 and Black.]

Please see above.

[Afrayed Knott]

actually i want to try voting here for today

VOTE: Bellaphant

why?

black flip

i didn't iso black but i think i remember bellaphant like not deciding their read on black

which would've been like normal but the e-1 looks so bad to me

I did not see this, can you show us where, and how that is relevant?

[Afrayed Knott]

{dannflor (based off a loose skim of blacks iso), T3}
{knott (also based off of that)}
{everyone else}
{skygazer}
{bellaphant}
{me}

anyway i gotta rake the leaves from my backyard before it inevitably snows kbye

why are you putting yourself as scum?