Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[Thomith]

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

What I do see here is a potential Follower crumb and since Cobbler claimed Follower, I could see scum thinking there is a follower in the setup and trying to draw a future counterclaim out of them with this plan. It's a common enough expression, but worth noting as a potential crumb I think.

Did you misread Celeboki as Cobblerfone?
I'm Celebloki's replacement, and this is not helpful speculation.

No I didn't misread it, what I'm saying is Celebloki and Cobbler potentially coordinated to crumb follower so that in the event one was going down, they could try to bait a CC from what is probably the only role that could guilty them if Celebloki rolled strongman, which seems the most likely.scenario if Cobbler claimed specifically Follower. My guess is scum rolled strongman and because strongman can shoot through Babysitter, Roleblocker, and Jailkeeper, the only PR to worry about is Follower

I think the other possibility to this is Scum maybe rolled Rolecop and took the 50/50 on what side of the clock we're on.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah but the puzzle fits so nicely if it's strongman

[Thomith]

Yeah but the puzzle fits so nicely if it's strongman

True

[Thomith]

Idk, I'm not sure I buy imaginality as scum tbh. While I get your points that it could be possible, and why you think it could be possible, it feels like there are a few too many what ifs that make me question it a little.

[Puffalicious]

Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith

Everyone else is clear

I think we go

Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements

[Thomith]

Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith

Everyone else is clear

I think we go

Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements

Enchant is dead, and how is everyone else clear?

[Puffalicious]

Gamma never voted Cobbler.

Thomith voted Cobbler first thing but was not voting EoD. (distancing)

Elements and Enchant were the last to jump on Cobbler. May have just seen the writing on the wall and hammered their partner.


This is what I think.

[Puffalicious]

Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith

Everyone else is clear

I think we go

Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements

Enchant is dead, and how is everyone else clear?

Everyone else (except my slot lol) voted Cobbler at one point or another. Gamma didn't vote. You did vote but then unvoted. Elements was last to jump on among alive.

[Thomith]

While I unvoted, I was pretty vocal about suspecting Cobb throughout the day.

[Thomith]

Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith

Everyone else is clear

I think we go

Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements

Enchant is dead, and how is everyone else clear?

Everyone else (except my slot lol) voted Cobbler at one point or another. Gamma didn't vote. You did vote but then unvoted. Elements was last to jump on among alive.

So you also don't think there is any possibility that somebody bussed Cobb?

[Puffalicious]

gob and I disagree on our reads on Thomith. I am town reading Thomith and gob is not.

- A

[Elements]

Town Pile
ssbm_Kyouko
Thomith
Mizuki

The Rest
Puffalicious
Gamma Emerald
imaginality

[Alianna]

2.02

Votecount 2.02

Gamma Emerald (E-2): Mizuki, Elements
imaginality (E-2): Puffalicious, ssbm_Kyouko
Puffalicious (1): imaginality

Not Voting (2): Thomith, Gamma Emerald

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-12-06 12:48:37).

[imaginality]

Feels like maybe you missed Cobbler's claim which is maybe a little yikes

I know Cobbler claimed Follower. Your post was talking about a crumb and quoted my predecessor whose name also begins with C. I think it was pretty reasonable of me to ask what you were talking about.

[imaginality]

@Thomasina I don't see why Cobb feels the need to unvote Puff in 119 if Puff is town. Why not just stay on Puff there? Maybe you can argue it's NAI rather than my take of it pointing to them being aligned but I think it's a stretch to call Puff town because of it.

What did you think of my other points about Puff?

@kyouko you can see in the 'statistical reasons' comment in 101 that Cobb was already preparing to jump ship at a suitable time.

If I'm honest I genuinely think you could be tunelled on Puff, the same way I think Puff is tunelled on you.

It's possible. I have been known to tunnel a bit. I do think the timing of Puff arguing today that I was bussing fits with scum!Puff wanting to attack and weaken the voice the person scumreading them most. But I mean, it's true I (or anyone) could be bussing, though I still would argue it was a bad plan to bus so it's still less likely scum did than if it was clearly advantageous. [For example if they'd had a strong read on who the invesitgative PR is.]


I could go for Gamma today, the point in 437 about Gamma's D1 reads on Cobb is reasonable.

I'm still strongly disinclined to go for anyone outside Puff or Gamma today though. I think you're letting wifom get to you a bit.

[Puffalicious]

Seems a lot of us agree on Gamma.

[imaginality]

VOTE: Gamma E-1

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: imaginality
I was already kinda leaning this way fwiw

[Thomith]

Should Gamma claim?

[Gamma Emerald]

I’m vanilla town

[imaginality]

With both Gamma and me at E-1 I don't plan on claiming unless someone declares intent to hammer me.

I'm frankly pretty surprised to be E-1. The logic seems to be "if imaginality is scum then here's why he did the things he did" without considering "if imaginality is town, would he also have had good reason to do the things he did?" Like I said earlier, I wouldn't want anyone hard-clearing me for pushing the Cobb wagon hard but neither do I think it's a reason to scum read me.

[imaginality]

One thing that did interest me though was when someone said (not sure who, will check) that maybe the Cobb lim went through faster than I expected so I couldn't unvote my buddy in time. Which makes me want to check back and see if that is a possible scenario for anyone else on the wagon to have been in.

[Thomith]

At this point I'm more inclined to hammer Gamma than you, but I'm not sure I'm ready for the day to end yet, because I'm still a little conflicted.

[Thomith]

I'm just gonna

VOTE: Imaginality

His position after the catch-up is just too perfectly aligned with how scum should be playing in that slot. TRs on popular/consensus TRed slots, suspicion on the most nullish, the take on Cobb's recent post being well thought out just doesn't feel legit. I think the best shot Imaginality had was to counterwagon Puff but maybe he wanted a more natural progression where he has these 3 SRs/suspicious slots in Cobb/Puff/Shadowwes and wanted to move from Cobb to Puff over time, but the Cobb wagon was too fast for him to stop

I think this is the post you are referencing @imaginality

[imaginality]

Cobb was at E-3
Mizuki voted post 303
Elements "tempted to E-1" 328
Mizuki posted, kyouko told Elements to put Cobb E-1
Elements voted Cobb 343
Mizuki called for Cobb to claim 353
Cobb claimed 354
Enchant hammered 355

Kyouko didn't post while Cobb was at E-1, but did call for the E-1 vote and if scum were planning to fakeclaim Follower it's definitely a foreseeable possibility that the fakeclaim would be followed by the real PR hammering. Plus in any case the discussion of Enchant's propensity to quickhammer had happened by then.

So I don’t think anyone on the wagon was caught by surprise and unable to hop off. Especially given there was half a day between 353 and 354.

So I'm back to thinking remaining scum is more likely in {Puff, Gamma} with a side chance of Thomith.

Of note Puff and Thomith were trying to get a counterwagon on me going, and then Gamma voted Enchant. I think Gamma as scum there, deciding not to bus Cobb, would be much likelier to jump onto my wagon which was at E-2 at that point. Voting Enchant seems too neutral in that position?

So:

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald

I think I'm back to Puff.

VOTE: Puffalicious