Mini 702--Serum & Steel(The rust has settled/Game Over)

[Vi]

1080 Snowboarding was a video game too right?

You know my area of expertise well

Since Mycosynth Golem is really a card, and really an artifact, I don't think the whole idea of being mycosynth and steel is suspicious. It doesn't seem to contradict itself to me.

So in order to take the metal off a Mycosynth Golem, you have to throw it into a pit of... more... mycosynth...
My head's starting to hurt, and I only just woke up :v

Why TonyMontana in particular?

[TonyMontana]

I would rather lynch TM than try to lynch Geraintm to test the metal claim. I might actually like to lynch TM anyways. If Vi is scum, I think it's with Illumina. That's all there is to it. TM however could go with Ill or Ger. That makes me think TM may yield more information.

Maybe if I were scum. What kind of info will you get from me flipping town?

I would say i'm pretty confident that at least one of the claimed metals are scum. I'm slightly more suspicious of geraintm versus Vi, but I don't think testing out his metal is a better bet.
So I still think we should lynch Vi, and throw geraintm in the synth tomorrow.
I guess it's a choice between risking a mislynch and risking a no-lynch. What sounds better?

[Vi]

I would say i'm pretty confident that at least one of the claimed metals are scum. I'm slightly more suspicious of geraintm versus Vi, but I don't think testing out his metal is a better bet.
So I still think we should lynch Vi, and throw geraintm in the synth tomorrow.
I guess it's a choice between risking a mislynch and risking a no-lynch. What sounds better?

That depends entirely on how much you believe the person you No Lynch is Town. Longer deadline, no potential for auto-loss overnight, and less likelihood of a quicklynch loss at LyLo

vs

confirmation that someone is/has been Town, should you need it. (Of course, you can sub in "killing a scum" on the right side of the italics if you believe that's the case.)

It seems like you've pegged the remaining mafiers between me and geraintm. Do you think that we are partners, or is there anyone else you think is being sketchy?

[TonyMontana]

That depends entirely on how much you believe the person you No Lynch is Town. Longer deadline, no potential for auto-loss overnight, and less likelihood of a quicklynch loss at LyLo

vs

confirmation that someone is/has been Town, should you need it. (Of course, you can sub in "killing a scum" on the right side of the italics if you believe that's the case.)

Well... when you say it like that... testing geraintm might not be that bad. It's certainly the chance of lynching scum without the risk of a mislynch. I'm just worried about what the state of affairs will be tomorrow, if the lynch doesn't go through.

I do see Vi/ger as the most likely scumteam, but only under the premise that one of you are lying about the metal. If there isn't a scumteam between you, ger and Ill, i'd be looking at porkens or ort. Ort bus-hammering SSK seems more likely if Vi is town.

After reading up, I find it most likely for Illumina to be the one to blame for gremwells death. I also regret in retrospect that Illumina is in the synth instead of the noose. Synthing gerintm while testing Illumina would have been a better play, as I find Illuminas claim way less convincing.

[TonyMontana]

EBWOP: Strike that about ort. I did a whole lot of reading while writing the post, and meant to exclude ort when I was reminded he claimed Glissa.

[Vi]

I do see Vi/ger as the most likely scumteam, but only under the premise that one of you are lying about the metal.

Considering how much I'm drilling into geraintm now?
(Also note that I'm obvflesh, and have never claimed anything to the contrary of being once-metal.)

If there isn't a scumteam between you, ger and Ill

, i'd be looking at porkens or ort. Ort bus-hammering SSK seems more likely if Vi is town.

And how do you plan on finding this out?

After reading up, I find it most likely for Illumina to be the one to blame for gremwells death.

I also regret in retrospect that Illumina is in the synth instead of the noose. Synthing gerintm while testing Illumina would have been a better play, as I find Illuminas claim way less convincing.

Why?

[TonyMontana]

Considering how much I'm drilling into geraintm now?
(Also note that I'm obvflesh, and have never claimed anything to the contrary of being once-metal.)

Well, obviously I'm referring to you and TE as the same person.
You drilling into geraintm is too WIFOMy for taking into consideration. If you and ger are on a team, I would expect nothing less.

And how do you plan on finding this out?

By lynching one of you, obviously

After reading up, I find it most likely for Illumina to be the one to blame for gremwells death.

I also regret in retrospect that Illumina is in the synth instead of the noose. Synthing gerintm while testing Illumina would have been a better play, as I find Illuminas claim way less convincing.

Why?

Process of elimination, coupled with his sketchy claim. I think both geraintm and Illumina is scum, but not together, and geraintm seems more likely to be mafia.
I think I dismissed you having gotten a kill out of the serum, since you have proven you g ot a doublevote. But thinking about it, it wouldn't be improbable that you would get doublevote as an SK.
Who do you see as most likely to be the thrid party?

[Vi]

Considering how much I'm drilling into geraintm now?
(Also note that I'm obvflesh, and have never claimed anything to the contrary of being once-metal.)

Well, obviously I'm referring to you and TE as the same person.
You drilling into geraintm is too WIFOMy for taking into consideration. If you and ger are on a team, I would expect nothing less.

How is pointing to obvious connections between SSK and geraintm WIFOMy? Independent of the claims, mind.
Moreover, considering the odds are still good that I'm going to be lynched, if I flip scum after providing these links (which you would consider "bussing") I'm doing you a favor!

By lynching one of you, obviously

If there isn't a scum

team

[two or more people]

between

you, ger and Ill,

[three people]

Quick quiz, what's 3-1, and is the answer small enough to preclude the possibility of a team?

Process of elimination, coupled with his sketchy claim. I think both geraintm and Illumina is scum, but not together, and geraintm seems more likely to be mafia.
I think I dismissed you having gotten a kill out of the serum, since you have proven you g ot a doublevote.

But thinking about it, it wouldn't be improbable that you would get doublevote as an SK.

Who do you see as most likely to be the thrid party?

I see it as most likely that there is no third party.
Also, I'm not sure how you can connect the dots from doublevote -> SK more easily than doublevote -> Town.
Meanwhile, you're saying Illumina is scum because nobody else is, aside from me and geraintm. Correct?

[TonyMontana]

How is pointing to obvious connections between SSK and geraintm WIFOMy?

No, I meant that whether you going after geraintm should be a rose in your cap, if one are to believe geraintm is scum, is wifom.

Quick quiz, what's 3-1, and is the answer small enough to preclude the possibility of a team?

What are you trying to say, that I should give up the scumhunt?

I see it as most likely that there is no third party.

You're saying you believe there's a vig then?

Also, I'm not sure how you can connect the dots from doublevote -> SK more easily than doublevote -> Town.

I didn't say you were more likely to be Sk from your doublevotes. I said doublevotes didn't exclude you from being one.

Meanwhile, you're saying Illumina is scum because nobody else is, aside from me and geraintm. Correct?

Nope. Wanna have another go at trying to make me look dumb?

[TonyMontana]

Hmm, I was about to hammer. Thanks for the extra time Nati.

Btw, hammer what?

Just so everyone's aware, as far as I can see, the current count is:
1 vote on Vi (Porkens)
and
1 vote on geraintm. (Ort)

[Vi]

No, I meant that whether you going after geraintm should be a rose in your cap, if one are to believe geraintm is scum, is wifom.

I see. That's not what I was interested in doing; I'm countering your claim that me and geraintm may be scumpartners.

What are you trying to say, that I should give up the scumhunt?

Putting words in my mouth.
I'm asking how you can feasibly deduce that the scumteam is among three people based on one lynch. In other words, Try Harder.

You're saying you believe there's a vig then?

I believe there is an ability that is not counted for so far. It is most likely scum-aligned.

I didn't say you were more likely to be Sk from your doublevotes. I said doublevotes didn't exclude you from being one.

Obvious following question: Why do you think I could be an SK, since you're entertaining the possibility?

Nope. Wanna have another go at trying to make me look dumb?

You're doing a good job of doing it for me; I just need to ask the right questions. Let me show my thought process here.

Process of elimination,

coupled with his sketchy claim. I think both geraintm and Illumina is scum, but not together, and geraintm seems more likely to be mafia.

I do see Vi/ger as the most likely scumteam, but only under the premise that one of you are lying about the metal. If there isn't a scumteam between

you, ger and Ill

, i'd be looking at porkens

or ort.

So your argument against Illumina is "process of elimination"; elaborate on it.

Talking of making you look dumb, the vote on geraintm belongs to Illumina. (1073)

[CF Riot]

TM, yeah you're right. I missed both your unvote and Ort's unvote I guess.

In my mind, the lynch choices today are Vi or TM. We straight up can't lynch Illumina. I think it's more likely that Ger is steel than flesh, and I don't think it would be a good idea to test this theory because if I'm right we'll be back at even numbers tomorrow which will makes us all want to no-lynch again tomorrow. That would mean scum gets 2 night kills (they pick who dies) and then we're in lylo. Or, we could lynch today and (if town flip) scum gets only 1 NK, then we're in lylo. Therefore, lynch > no lynch, and the possibility of Ger being flesh doesn't narrow that gap enough for me.

If TM flips scum, I think Vi is town. Ill is the logical lynch tomorrow cause he'll be flesh. If TM flips town, we spend tomorrow arguing about who's scummier between Ill and Vi.

[Porkens]

So lynch Vi?

[ortolan]

I think we should seriously consider nolynching or lynching geraintm

I'm getting a strong feeling the scumteam is just Illumina/ geraintm now (remember they were the two with the dodgy fakeclaims). I've liked TM and Vi's more recent posts. Still re-reading, give me a moment.

[Porkens]

nolynch? you want to take all the power away from the town? If I didn't think you were town, I'd hang you.

Even if your strong feeling is right; Hang Vi.

If there's still a second nightkill; I'll poop my pants.

I agree with you about Illumina and Geraintm. but, we can't assume which is flesh and which is metal (or maybe both are metal).

If we hang Geraintm, we risk an effective no-lynch anyway.

There're seven left.

If you think it's illumina and Geraintm, how can you explain the double-kill?

Unfortunetly, ort, you're consistent "don't hang the most probably SK" stance is making me think you are the SK.

[ortolan]

See I see Illumina as scum possibly defending town-Vi because he knows it will look good when he flips town having defended him.

I also see his trying to divert the lynch onto geraintm as something which, if it even succeeds, will make it look like he is suspicious of his scumbuddy (thus dissociating the two) but will do no real damage because geraintm is metal anyway.

Also, remember that if we misslynch today and there's another double kill tonight, we actually *lose* outright. However I could still consider lynching Vi if desired.

[ortolan]

I honestly think it unlikely there's an SK in this setup- not only would 8 townies vs 4 scum players be kind of unfair (especially in light of the whole needing to mycosynth most of them before they hand thing), but it does seem quite a crappy SK role that only gets a night-kill when they get serumed.

But as I said, maybe we will have fewer regrets if we just lynch Vi at this point anyhow.

[Porkens]

See I see Illumina as scum possibly defending town-Vi because he knows it will look good when he flips town having defended him.

Illumina doesn't know if Vi is an SK either, so...

I also see his trying to divert the lynch onto geraintm as something which, if it even succeeds, will make it look like he is suspicious of his scumbuddy (thus dissociating the two) but will do no real damage because geraintm is metal anyway.

Yes, a thousand times yes, I agree.

Also, remember that if we misslynch today and there's another double kill tonight, we actually *lose* outright. However I could still consider lynching Vi if desired.

Yep, I think I said this in my first big post of the day; assume MYLO.

I honestly think it unlikely there's an SK in this setup- not only would 8 townies vs 4 scum players be kind of unfair (especially in light of the whole needing to mycosynth most of them before they hand thing), but it does seem quite a crappy SK role that only gets a night-kill when they get serumed.

It's swingy. It's obvious that if we had 12 players with 4 team-skum is overpowered. But a 3 team-skum and a 3rd party SK isn't unbalanced because the SK also needs to kill the scum. So instead of 50-50 town/scum wins, its 30 30 30 Town, Scum, SK win. So is an SK worse for the town? Yes. But it's also worse for the scum.

I'd say we have a 5050 chance of hitting the non-metal scum today. If we kill the SK, we'll loose 1 town, leaving us with 2 scum and 3 town. lylo. Then we lynch illumina, and loose a town, and we're at 1 scum 2 town. I'll let oyu figure out who those 3 people would be.

If we no-lynch, I'm betting the SK would hit a mafia. That would leave us with SK, 1 scum, 3 townies.

But...it's hard to plan on the SK.

I'd take you up on lynching Vi as option 1. If it was down to no-lynch as the only alternative, my 2nd option would be to take a chance on lynchng Ger.

[Vi]

Porkens, it bothers me to no end that you want to lynch me for the SK but prefer to merely chant LYNCH VI LYNCH VI WHY HAVENT YOU LYNCHED VI YET instead of laying out exactly why you believe this is a good idea... especially considering the trust I've banked in you for the first half of the day at least. I would recommend you state your reasons immediately, because I would hate to be in your position tomorrow if I'm lynched and you survive the night. But I will readily enjoy watching you sweat from the sidelines.

@CF Riot: What is the problem with even numbers?

If there's still a second nightkill; I'll poop my pants.

Enticing as that is, it's not nearly satisfying enough to justify a Town loss if it DOES happen.

It's swingy. It's obvious that if we had 12 players with 4 team-skum is overpowered. But a 3 team-skum and a 3rd party SK isn't unbalanced because the SK also needs to kill the scum. So instead of 50-50 town/scum wins, its 30 30 30 Town, Scum, SK win. So is an SK worse for the town? Yes. But it's also worse for the scum.

There's one other factor you're not considering, unintentionally or otherwise.
What kind of lame SK role

requires

the serum to operate? If you do not think it's serum-dependent, what reason are you willing to give for the prevention of an NK N1 (remembering that the N2 hit pierced metal)?

Last, lest he be forgotten we're still waiting on geraintm.

[Porkens]

I've always said it was serum dependent. And that's why it's either you or Ort.

I can't bring mself to believe that Glissa would be an SK, so...it's you.

"backing" me doesn't ingratiate you into my confidence.

[Vi]

I've always said it was serum dependent. And that's why it's either you or Ort.

I can't bring mself to believe that Glissa would be an SK, so...it's you.

Wait, so you're buying that I have the most retarded/useless SK role ever. And you're trusting a claim with no discernible serum effect over a claim that has a proven serum effect. And you're still not answering my questions or laying out your reasoning, leaving me to believe that you're pushing the easiest lynch for the sake of it being the easiest lynch.

I would press for your lynch with extreme prejudice, but unfortunately I don't think that would be allowed given the serum majority. So I'll just point your obviously fallacious logic out and find some popcorn to munch on as I watch your roast tomorrow (hopefully).

[Porkens]

Agree with it or not; my reasoning was posted days ago:

Who’s the SK?

Like I said above; I think that the SK must be either Vi or Ort.

I can see either one being an SK for the following reasons.

Each of their cards has an ability that would coincide with the idea of a killing role.

I am abandoning the idea that Glissa

must

be town. That’s purely flavor-biased idea, and I really think this game is going to come down to more than flavor.

Ortolan could be the SK for the following reasons.

His serum-granted power is hard to verify, so it’s a great choice to claim as scum.

Vi could be the SK for the following reasons.

In this setup a 3rd party would need to be quite powerful in order to have a hope of winning.

A metal-kill and a double vote don’t actually sound that bad for a 3rd party. Especially so if these are limited use abilities.

An SK would need to convince the town to give them the serum. Don’t forget what set the tone for this whole game; it was TimeEater, claiming metal, and asking for the Serum. IIRC, Vi has also pushed for getting the serum.

Triskelion’s stuff (warning, this is flavor again), comes in 3s. A double vote is, at best, 2.

so…

I think I believe that TE/Vi is the SK. And I think we should lynch them/him/her today.

So that moves the mycosynth to Illumina (I was pained about not synthing illumina first anyway).

In his last couple posts this page, TM has also done quite a bit to sway me on him, so I’ll change my suspect list to Illumina and Geraintm for the time being.

Unvote
Unsynth

Vote: Vi
Mycosynth: Illumina

you have a double vote, too, guy. That, in combination with being able to kill metal, is a pretty powerful god damn role and I think plausibly balanced in this setup. Getting the serum early, of course, would be key...

I am Triskelion.

I am a "steel fleet" a town aligned steel being. According to my flavor, I noticed a hole in the razor fields, saw a war waging, and decided to help the fleshies. I win when my faction is the last standing.

If (the serum is) received, I will give full disclosure, and cooperate in any way I can to help verify my claim.

[ortolan]

You do realise if you're still suggesting I was responsible for the night-kill that Porkens originally thought I was a vig. If I were an SK I could have just ridden on that claim he manufactured for me. Instead I told the truth and pasted the ability pm I got- which says what I got out of the serum was simply being untargetable. I also don't think if you get lynched today and flip town I'm going to be particularly suspicious of Porkens for the fact tomorrow anyway.

[Vi]

So, wait, you're using my doublevote as an argument to further suppose that I have killing power? I've never seen a role like this before, and I don't think you have - or will - either.

I am abandoning the idea that Glissa

must

be town. That’s purely flavor-biased idea, and I really think this game is going to come down to more than flavor.

'Looks like you've abandoned this abandonment; your reason for leaving ortolan out of the picture entirely is wholly based on flavor.

I would also argue that in a case like this, getting the serum

late

would be better. But that's me arguing about a hypothetical scenario about someone who likely wouldn't have bothered with the strategy, so :v

You do realise if you're still suggesting I was responsible for the night-kill that Porkens originally thought I was a vig. If I were an SK I could have just ridden on that claim he manufactured for me. Instead I told the truth and pasted the ability pm I got- which says what I got out of the serum was simply being untargetable.

WIFOM, etc. It's feasible to assume you had the safeclaim plotted overnight and didn't bother to change gears.

[ortolan]

Trying to divert suspicion onto me when clearly no-one is going to vote me is not going to help you not get lynched

geraintm, when you post give us something big to dissect. Tell us if you think we should lynch/ no lynch Vi today, and tell us who you think is the scummiest out of you/ Tony Montana/ Illumina / Vi.