In post 221, Mizuki wrote:For some reason I thought 191 was your post. Don't ask me why, I'd just woken up at that time.In post 218, Cobblerfone wrote: -SNIP-
When you say "the setup speculation didn't seem calculated to influence the town to choose a bad option" can you provide a more specific example? Where exactly are the points you think Kyouko could've misled town?
I'm a little confused, by the question. My point is, if mafia is going to bother with setup speculation (which to my understanding is held by conventional wisdom to be NAI or scummy for much the same reasons you expressed as my statistics speculation to be scummy), they're going to do it to either bait the town into doing something that gives an edge to the speculator or (more likely imo) convince them not doing anything unusual is the best option. Admittedly, that can last one can also come from cautious town, but Kyouko seemed to be leading discussion in a more unconventional way. Admittedly it's kind of a blur. I'll have more time tomorrow to review it all because I don't actually remember what note we ended on
In post 224, Thomith wrote: -SNIP-
Could you expand a little on why you think you attract misguided town tunnels?
Honestly it's been long enough I don't really remember. Even at the time I wasn't sure. Probably my idiosyncrasies? Unconventionalities? In my newbie game I got tunnel-vision. Early on in my mafiascum career I tended to be a sheep. I'd sheep the one highly confident and charismatic scumhunter that was in the game (I used to mostly play large themes, and there's always one it seems. Heck if I were the way I was back then, I'd be sheeping Kyouko 100% in this game). Of course that eventually backfired, of course -- charismatic scumhunters are sometimes scum after all. IDK. I also used to trust my intuition for detecting town too much. Though I recognize now that's probably statistical error. "Firm town reads" that are actually based on bad intuition are still more likely to be town than scum. I also tend to get kind of emotional and anxious when I have a lot of votes on me whether town or scum. I used to have a lot of pride in not being executed as town, until I did. I regard it as failure as much as, or perhaps more so, than when I am scum. I think I considered it a "duty" to be perceived as town as town. I'm always trying some new angle to try to "solve" the game I guess. Aspiring but crank scumhunter, I guess
In post 230, Elements wrote:I always vote hop day 1In post 224, Thomith wrote: @Elements, do you agree with the assessment that you've been vote hopping?
It's probably the most nai thing I can do
Fair enough, it is day 1. NAI until the day 2 wagon analysis.
In post 243, Thomith wrote: Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.
IMO that doesn't matter as much on its own. More important if subsequent
In post 252, Puffalicious wrote: Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.
Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.
What do you think @kyouko
I'm not Kyouko but while I do think being scum is more likely to get you into that mindset, I think there are too many other reasons for someone's first post to be like that (generally boiling down to excitement mixed with laziness / tiredness) for it to be alignment indicative. More important is a pattern of behavior.
Granted, considering how we had two competing wagons with 2 votes on at the same time and neither even got to a 3rd vote, I would not be surprised if one or (or even both scum) were in Shadowez / Celebloki. Puff also only ever got to 3 votes. Although, I we guess we do have plurality at deadline. That might make scum less eager in general to hop on wagons.
