Open 891: STDBINSBICACOT (Game Over)

[Something_Smart]

Maybe this setup shouldn't have a confirmation phase. It's probably not too bad if you open the thread when you send out updated PM's and ask people to confirm before they post.

That way you can avoid these icky mid-pregame replacements entirely.

[Something_Smart]

It's been too long since I've played with Dunn but I think this kind of spec is something he might do as a scum tactic.

[Something_Smart]

I don't really like how SS showed up and didn't say anything about pisskop and the conversation going on with him.

Do you really think I should be sharing my opinion on whether or not pisskop is VT?

[Something_Smart]

Happy to see shaddowez is back, btw. I think it's been literally seven years since we've played together.

[Something_Smart]

No, but I guess I just thought you should have some opinions on his reactions and his vote on Dunn

I understand why pisskop would be uncomfortable with Dunn's comment regardless of alignment. It is a pretty gross thing to be speculating on.

[Something_Smart]

Dann feels townie based simply on the fact that he has played two games with me very recently, one where I was scum and one where I was town, and I think he's the type of player to be able to read me well, even early on.

That is a bold claim. Then again, it's page 2, we don't really have non-bold ones.

Dannflor "Deepwolf" Myth Debunked As He Can't Fake Even A Single Read. More at 11

[Something_Smart]

I don't appreciate the acting like I've done something reprehensible.

You've done something that I don't like and wouldn't do. It's not against any rules and it's arguable whether it advances your wincon if you're town.

You're within your rights to do it and I'm within my rights to be unhappy about it. We don't have to dwell on it.

[Something_Smart]

...implying that that is all the conversation is about

Not necessarily all about that. But speculating about how likely pisskop is to be VT or town PR or traitor is how I would contribute to the conversation if I were to contribute to it. Which is why I chose not to contribute to it.

[Something_Smart]

davesaz is the only slot that has posted so far that i feel is greater than rand to be scum

This is an example of what gob thinks is scum indicative -- giving a reason that isn't actually a reason.

I'm having such a hard time parsing this post. Who's giving a reason that isn't actually a reason? Do you agree with gob or disagree?

[Something_Smart]

Not sure how this didn't connect.

The part that didn't connect is that Dann clearly isn't claiming to give a reason there. "Greater than rand to be scum" is just the predicate of the sentence; there's no "because" or anything.

[Something_Smart]

He feels like a topic that exists for the sake of being a topic.

This is kind of how the early game works.

[Something_Smart]

Scum that wants to emphasize that they are doing nothing in order to continue doing nothing might do it. I'm not saying this makes Drew scum but I don't see how it clears him tbh

It's a pretty brazen play as scum to admit that you aren't doing anything and then just... keep not doing anything.

In retrospect though, that's not what he did, because his post right after this one did show some actual effort.

[Something_Smart]

Seems a bit too easy for Doctor Drew to be mafia. They aren't exactly hiding that they aren't doing much.

Dunnstral you havent been doing too much either. What's that about?

I don't have a scumread.

I want to think this post is towny but maybe I just appreciate the restraint.

I think it actually is towny though, iirc scum-Dunn kinda likes to control the game?

[Something_Smart]

Not a bad vote. Responded to me calling him out for making too many neutral sideline comments with a neutral sideline comment.

Nice to meet you, I'm Something_Smart. Expect many more comments where those came from.

[Something_Smart]

I don't try to hide the fact that most of my posts are what you would call "neutral sideline comments". I don't have a ton of substantive thoughts, especially early on, and so I figure it's better to be posting more, even if each individual post has relatively low (but not no) value. I am always open to people engaging me on specific topics, but I won't ever force a stance that I don't believe in, so don't come looking for a hard read one way or the other.

[Something_Smart]

I like dave's posting on this page.

[Something_Smart]

When you get a chance look at 189. Rebuttal is welcome. Others are also invited to check it out.

Oh, well if nothing else you're conflating anti-town with scummy. Even if what Dunn did was anti-town that doesn't mean it was malicious rather than misguided.

It also assumes as an inherent premise that Dunn's analysis was completely wrong-- I think it's a pretty big stretch to say that he was implying "we should not consider these people as targets AT ALL", and a smaller stretch to say that maybe we shouldn't focus on them for now, but if he was implying the latter then it's only anti-town if he's not correct.

[Something_Smart]

one day I'll be able to read Something_Smart

Me too tbh.

I'd be skeptical if you claimed to have a solid read on me now, anyway.

[Something_Smart]

And I'm pretty sure we had that exact same exchange in the last game we played lmao

[Something_Smart]

Sure, and that's a valid reason to prod at someone early on. I'm mostly just taking issue with the claim "using pregame replacement spec is scummy".

[Something_Smart]

I did a double take when you said pisskop had 30 posts

They were mostly early though

[Something_Smart]

idk it just feels like he's offering commentary on the game not actually playing the game

Unfortunately, I can empathize with being on the wrong end of this accusation.

We'll see how he responds to it though, because it's probably not the same way I would.

[Something_Smart]

he's not as passive as you (no offense) in my experience

None taken. I haven't played with him recently so I'll take your word for it.

[Something_Smart]

You were angry? Lol, dude relax its just a game

What other emotion would you expect to show through someone's posts besides anger?

[Something_Smart]

Can you not show happiness through post?

I think it's pretty hard to demonstrate happiness, like you can say that you're happy, but that doesn't really provide evidence of anything.

When you were asking people for emotions, what emotions did you have in mind?

[Something_Smart]

Oh I forgot this game has shortish deadlines

Yeah I should probably get my ass into gear sooner rather than later. (For some definition of "into gear".)

[Something_Smart]

I'll do a reread and at least come up with a division of people I'd be uncomfortable limming and people I'd be not uncomfortable limming.

[Something_Smart]

I think Titus is almost always in group A for D1 though. We may not see eye to eye basically ever but I went back to look at Warrior Cats and I had forgotten how much everyone dogpiled (catpiled?) on her for basically no reason.

[Something_Smart]

Titus has been surprisingly reasonable this game which if anything is a red flag, but there's not much to go on.

[Something_Smart]

So many vanity voters holy.

It doesn't count as vanity voting if there aren't any major wagons

[Something_Smart]

As far as Shadowez has gone, I admit the guy has flown completely under my radar and I should probably give him a look. I don't have any real lean on him either way right now.

This is basically how I feel about him too

[Something_Smart]

Let's play a little game: Who actually is on your radar?

For being scum? It's way too early for me to be saying that with any confidence.

I said I would reread at some point and try to separate everyone into would-lim and wouldn't-lim. I'll probably do that on Monday.

[Something_Smart]

Shaddow's ISO is unimpressive. Not bad per se, I think maybe he was a bad choice to wagon like this because he's known to be V/LA over weekends.

If shaddow is town, there's potentially some valuable information from the way his wagon rose and then the thread completely stalled. I have ideas but I would want to hear his thoughts on it before I say anything.

[Something_Smart]

Shadow doesn't have to respond to the pressure right away in order for us to get something out of it

This is true, in my head we could have already seen a pressure response and potentially moved on to something else or at least built up an informed CW, but the amount of people getting prodded (and me making that post when I did because I was 1 hour off of a prod) makes me think it's probably mostly RL business. (Although I may be projecting but I'm the type to check the thread a lot and if nobody's posting then I generally won't either, so if nobody wanted to post it could be because town was waiting for a reaction and scum was trying not to shake things up hoping the wagon would go through, although that's a bit of a long shot theory.)

When shaddow did respond in 616 I do like the analysis, well more specifically I like the direction he chose to go because the analysis itself is fairly simple and easily faked. But the fact that he jumped immediately to analyzing the people on his wagon, their votes/positioning and what that might mean, is not the first angle I would expect scum to go for when trying to talk themself out of a lim.

That said I do get the impression that shaddow is a pretty analytical player so maybe that was just his best instinct as either alignment, plus I very heavily implied that I wanted to see some analysis like that so maybe he chose that line of thought as scum specifically to tie in to what I was asking for.

[Something_Smart]

Pisskop is completely avoiding any comment on the Shadowez wagon, and sitting on a splinter he's not trying to push. This says to me Pisskop wants the wagon to go through, but he doesn't want to be associated with it. Based on Pisskop's behavior, I'd wager Shadow is probably town here. Scum loves to hide by themselves on splinter votes early in the game.

This is putting the cart before the horse. This is absolutely something that some people will do as scum, in order to make it look like they are doing something while not directly tying themself to the mislim wagon they expect to go through. But it's also just something townies will do when they have a pet scumread and you have only posited one possible explanation for pisskop's behavior, not tried to show why it's more likely than other possible explanations.

[Something_Smart]

Titus usually takes a while to get going, right?

[Something_Smart]

Well I'm less than thrilled with the events of the last few pages, but I agree that Titus should be left alone for now. Even if she's a scum rolecop her ability to benefit scum is severely curtailed by her need to share her results.

[Something_Smart]

Got any reads you want to share?

I townlean gob and Black for aggression that doesn't seem strategically directed. I townlean you as previously mentioned. I think Titus is more likely town than random? But the whole situation is icky and I don't want to think about it.

After I've typed this I realize that these are the three top posters (and Titus is 5th), and I have almost no recollection of what most of the bottom half of the activity chart has done. So there's probably some kind of recency bias going on but it's D1 so.

And actually I could buy the argument that higher postcount is correlated with being town in this game, because as you mentioned there are multiple times when it seemed like the bottom dropped out of the game and those louder voices have been the ones actually keeping the game going when it might otherwise have just died in apathy.

[Something_Smart]

There is a scum rolecop in this setup.

[Something_Smart]

The relevance of a scum rolecop isn't in the ability to safely fakeclaim, it's in the ability to fake results. If Titus is scum and there isn't a rolecop on her team, she'll need to either report results on her buddies or make stuff up (or cop-out and say she investigated the person who died I guess, or say she was roleblocked).

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Dannflor

too happy. no, jovial. i just got here but you have no excuse

Not a fan of this vote.

How much of the game did you read?

[Something_Smart]

The solve being off is part of why I think he's a bad vote. I'm not sure if scum-Dann feels the need to go that hard on shaddow if that wagon is likely going to go through anyway (barring Titus coming in with a steel chair).

There's also another reason that I'd rather not elaborate on right now.

[Something_Smart]

Ahhh the OMGUS vote to signal "look I'm town!"

Since when is that how people interpret OMGUS votes

[Something_Smart]

Black, do you not see shallow reads as a bad thing? Not necessarily scummy bad, but to me the term implies that you haven't thought very deeply or considered very much.

[Something_Smart]

Wait for everyone to check in before doing anything.

[Something_Smart]

We dont need an opinion of Gob's role to read gob's play.

I think we should read him as if he were a vanilla, and ignore the claim ftm

This was pisskop's reaction to gob's claim.

Food for thought.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think that pisskop makes that post if he's scum who took informed and knows there's no cop?

That idea crossed my mind from pisskop's entirely unconcerned response to gob today.

It actually makes me wonder if that's traitor-gob signaling to pisskop although that feels... ill-advised. But based on what I've seen of gob it's maybe something he might do?

[Something_Smart]

I should have been more on the lookout for potential traitor softs yesterday. I guess we can revisit that once we actually have a red flip.

(Though pisskop said he'd take informed/recruit traitor as scum so maybe he just told the truth about that.)

[Something_Smart]

I actually agree with Black's analysis. What I did was a misplay... if i was actually Cop.

Youre badposting rn black. You already explained what your meant, and now youre building a narrative off of an extremely superficial premise

I completely disagree.

VOTE: pisskop

I guess gob probably does not drop the gambit and go immediately into bussing if he's pisskop's traitor.

[Something_Smart]

I didnt consider it could be a signal from gob

that's a decent point actually

I had only considered it in the context of a traitor crumb toward you. I'm not sure if it makes sense as a crumb if you're town, I guess I don't see what about it would alert scum unless it were aimed at someone known to be scum.

Also, I remembered the reason I didn't care about hunting the traitor yesterday. We don't actually have to kill the traitor to win, so if we lim someone specifically off of a read that they're the traitor, that has a pretty poor expected outcome.

[Something_Smart]

telling me hes a traitor and telling randoscum hes a traitor is essentially the same thing. its the actions that matter, why would gob faking a cop guilty or even joking about a cop guilty on me affect that, ss?

My understanding is that, at least in theory, a traitor signal should tell a specific person that you know they're scum, in a way that uninformed townies wouldn't pick up on. Not just broadcast to the whole game. Maybe that's not how traitors play in practice; I don't know, and gob is from another site so all bets are off probably.

My other point still stands though that it's a mechanical blunder to target someone specifically because you think they're traitor. In the best case (unless they're randomly groupscum) you've barely advanced the town wincon, and in the worst case you've killed a townie and gained no info.

[Something_Smart]

Was busy all day. I think I'm most interested in wagoning pisskop out of the available options.

[Something_Smart]

I think I'm most interested in wagoning pisskop out of the available options.

Taly replaces pisskop.

A tragedy in one act.

[Something_Smart]

Black (low confidence read)

What does it mean to have someone in your highest tier who's low confidence? I thought the high tiers usually meant high confidence?

I don't object to you voting me because I've been low-impact, by the way, I can see that I need to be doing more. It is going to be tough though, I'm moving in a few days so this week is pretty busy for me.

[Something_Smart]

Unconvinced Dann sorry. I want to see what comes of this.

What exactly are you expecting to come of it?

[Something_Smart]

a red flip and maybe more liberal voting so theres more content to analyze

Is Gamma your strongest scumread? Or just the strongest people will vote?

[Something_Smart]

SS

you seem wholly unconcerned with your wagon and i sadly predicted that

Two people are voting me. That isn't a wagon.

[Something_Smart]

If you were hoping I'd devote more time to the game, I'd love to, but I have bigger RL priorities at the moment.

[Something_Smart]

then give me a short, digestible readslist, that has to be pretty low effort

It's gonna be a mess but uh sure

Dann, dave
Gamma, gob
Psyche, Alisae, Black
Taly, Roden

The problem isn't that I can't generate reads, it's that I can't invest the time to read in-depth and generate deeper reads, especially when those deeper reads almost certainly wouldn't be any more accurate. (They would help people read me better, which is why that's an issue right now. But everyone who's voted/scumread me has been welcome to engage me on anything, and shockingly most of them haven't.)

[Something_Smart]

I'm a power wolf y'all

All I remember of your scum game is Echo Bay Grits SEO. And the fact that you powerwolfed that hard in a shitpost game definitely scared me.

But if you couldn't tell, that read is based mostly on your predecessor.

[Something_Smart]

I think pisskop's reaction to the fake guilty was bad, and I think it might be because he knew there was no cop.

[Something_Smart]

I wasn't trying to hurt you. But I do generally think meta talk is worthless. And the fact you wrote a big paragraph about it is just lol.

Just because you find something worthless doesn't mean other people can't get value out of it. And if Taly wants to write big paragraphs, that's his prerogative.

[Something_Smart]

idrk what to say here. bad time for me to roll scum because I was genuinely quite busy, I think Gamma slot disappearing so many times and leaving bad associations doomed us combined with the PRs that we couldn't hunt because shaddow was such an obvious shot that anyone would make.

I think most of the subsetups are townsided, that was kind of by design because scum get so much control, but it's definitely brutal when town ends up with PRs that you don't have an answer to.

[Something_Smart]

Oh wow idk what soft you're referring to but I went back and looked and he very obviously softed BG. Unfortunate that I didn't have time to comb through ISOs for those.

[Something_Smart]

Oh did you protect Alisae on N2? Mod PT didn't say. If so there really wasn't anything we could do. This interaction is what I was afraid of, and why I said the subsetup was townsided.