Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Game Over!

[Natirasha]

I never saw why tubby wasn't lynched already.

[Battle Mage]

unvote tubby216

Maybe I'm underestimating scum-tubby, but that reaction feels townish to me.

I've been calling him townish this whole time, but I completely agree with you. I am absolutely against a tubbywagon.

Shanba realises Tubby is widely regarded as town, and desperately tries to make it look like he saw it first as it were. The whole tone sounds distinctly anxious. I mean, talk about overstating it!

The fact he didnt respond to my vote suggests that he wants to avoid scrappy confrontation if at all possible, and isnt confident enough to confront suspicion of him.

BM

[Shanba]

Unvote

I like Yos' response, it makes a decent amount of sense.

That being said, his attacks on Oh God My Life just seem really scummy to me, as I explained. Do you really think that make him "look fairly town" to you?

Not especially, I admit. But the whole vibe I get from him is new player rather than scummy player.


@BM: Defending the player with the biggest wagon on him is defending a player who is widely regarded as town?

And I don't respond to votes with no reasoning as a matter of course. What's the point? If you feel like elaborating, I'm sure you will, in due course. If you don't, then there's nothing to respond to - and I'm hardly like to make you change your mind.

Finally, I've been defending or at least generally pro-tubby for a while now.

[OhGodMyLife]

I've seen nothing indicating tubby shouldn't be lynched, nor have I seen enough support for a Sir T wagon to know that my vote would be doing anything worthwhile if I moved it back to him.

[Battle Mage]

@BM: Defending the player with the biggest wagon on him is defending a player who is widely regarded as town?

Yup. Because people havent had time to Unvote. Tubby wont be strung up today. But if he was, that'd be even better for you. Distancing from a mislynch and all that.

Finally, I've been defending or at least generally pro-tubby for a while now.

This is exactly my point. There should be no reason for you to be so desperate for you to emphasise this position if its been something youve felt for a while. A townie is happy to prevent a mislynch. A scumbag will want to gain credibility for doing so.

BM

[Xylthixlm]

BM clearly thinks tubby is town, and apparently believes all right-thinking townies should share his opinion.

Unfortunately for him the people who share his opinion are me and Shanba, who he doesn't think are right-thinking townies.

I see some cognitive dissonance here.

[Hoopla]

Nov 20:

Will make a post more with a more detailed amount of my thoughts so far later

Dec 05:

My game changing analysis is nearly here. Hopefully sometime sunday

Finally delivers:

Tubbys claim really doesnt convince me so I think my vote is happy were it is

unvote, vote: Der Hammer

, lets play some mafia please.

On a side note K7 should be back from vacation, hopefully you're ready to play too.

[Xylthixlm]

Go lurker wagons.

unvote, vote: Der Hammer

[Ectomancer]

I never saw why tubby wasn't lynched already.

I believe it was because BM thinks the mod showed a town card on Tubby. I dont think The Fonz did and while I can understand that BM could have that belief, I dont share it. I think that what BM saw is his own gut's reaction. Let it influence his own thinking, but it does not justify the rest of the town dropping the pursuit of they believe in the case against Tubby.

While I think chasing lurkers out of the corner is a priority, I dont see why a Tubby wagon would be flagging if the proponents of it felt that they had found scum.

[tubby216]

man i just hate this. I think ogml is scum so i am leaving my vote where it is. at least until some one can look at it and tell me why he is not wich no one has done. I also do not like der hammer and would not mind seeing hiim lynched or at least run up to a claim.

[vollkan]

Yos:

In the interests of exploring new, and possibly fresher pastures, Vote: Natirasha pending meta investigation of his playstyle.

Natirasha's play struck me as possibly scummy depending on whether or not he always played like this. Checking, he is often concise, sarcastic and does not necessarily comment on everything.

And I agree that Yos is not distracting from the issue, because I have yet to raise the issue, mostly because it's gut. I'm working on articulating what it was that made my gut go off, but it may take some time. Consider this a placeholder until then.

I don't see, though, why you would cast even a gut vote in such a weird way. You said nothing related to Yos all post, give no preface to the vote, and don't even say "For gut reasons I am going to vote Yosarian2".

Psychological research tells us that decisions made on gut are usually better than decisions made on logic.

*groan*

This is a game of incomplete information where some people are bad and want to kill the other people. Gut might well be, for many people, reliable. But it let's the scum slink by without accountability - you cannot critically evaluate somebody's gut. Moreover, even townies are susceptible to emotional prejudice and error.

This is exactly my point. There should be no reason for you to be so desperate for you to emphasise this position if its been something youve felt for a while. A townie is happy to prevent a mislynch. A scumbag will want to gain credibility for doing so.

Town won't want to do things to reduce their own chances of being lynched?

[Xylthixlm]

You don't critically evaluate a gut read. You evaluate whether the person making it really has a gut read.

[vollkan]

How?

[Xylthixlm]

Ask questions, like you're doing. There's always a reason behind a true gut read, even if it takes a while to find. But there's nothing wrong with putting the vote on first and looking for the reason later.

[vollkan]

In which case, you've really just affirmed my point. In order to obtain insight into the gut voter, one needs to look at the gut voter's reason/s. Gut is a fine means of pointing oneself in the direction of people to have a closer look at. But a vote should only be based on reason/s, so people are held accountable at the time. Of course, if gut votes are bad, having gut votes on a lynchee or on somebody at L-1 is worse still and totally unacceptable.

[Xylthixlm]

I agreed with you up until "But a vote should only be based on reason/s". I think this is just a playstyle difference.

Shanba's "gut" vote makes me think he's more likely to be protown, for now. He's not the type of person who fakes gut reads as scum. I'll be interested to see what reason he comes up with though, and if he never comes up with one I'll have to change my assessment.

[tubby216]

whats the vote count btw??

[Shanba]

Confused
I don't see, though, why you would cast even a gut vote in such a weird way. You said nothing related to Yos all post, give no preface to the vote, and don't even say "For gut reasons I am going to vote Yosarian2".

You're right, it is a little odd. But I don't feel it's counter-productive. It's the end of a chain of thought I've been mulling over for a while, which I may as well outline here.

Basically, neither scum nor town have all the information available in a setup. For town, fixing this information deficiency is the aim of the game. However, they don't necessarily want to reveal all the information they hold in a setup, as that would be counter-productive. In other words, day 1 massclaim gives too many advantages to the scum compared to the disadvantages it imposes on them. This information being public knowledge is harmful to the town.

So there is such a thing, in mafia, of "bad" information, of data that hurts the town more than helps it by being public knowledge. But why should "bad" information only be roleclaims? Indeed, some people believe that talking about who you believe is town is harmful to the town. The distinction between "good" and "bad" information is not very clear, to me.

So I began to think about why provide reasons for a vote. From my perspective, it's irrelevant: whether my vote is well founded or not well founded is independent of whether I decide to share my information with the town. So, why do I give reasons? Well, to let people judge me. Perhaps because a strong case increases the pressure. Because I want to get him lynched, so I need to convince other people to vote with me.

Then the question must be asked: are there any reasons to hold off? Yes, is what I believe the answer to be. It might be that what you've spotted is a possible pattern of behaviour, and you don't want to disrupt it too much while still letting people know you are suspicious of them. Reasonless votes (and votes with weak cases) tend to draw out defences from scumpartners more often. Furthermore, a reasonless vote is a somewhat different kind of pressure for a scum: how do they react? Laugh it off? Attack the player who voted them?

Furthermore, you don't lose the more direct pressure a stronger case would give, nor the opportunity for other player's to judge you/your reasoning, as you can always give the reasoning later. But a vote without the reasons supplied can be beneficial.

I'm still feeling out when such a vote is beneficial and when it is not. I suspect that when my case is at any rate gut, I may as well test my ideas. And I got, at least from the timing perspective, an interesting reaction from BM. I'm certainly considering a him/Yos partnership, now - but until more evidence comes up, I'm not going to pursue it further.

Vote: Der Hammer

This is a wagon which I finally can support. Puta Puta was a fool, tubby's not reading scum to me, Sir T I want more time to get a more accurate read on. Der Hammer has contributed nothing, sat in the background ad doesn't look to be about to start being helpful to the town if we give him more time.

Xyl: I've already provided my reasoning, and Yos has responded.

[Ectomancer]

Der Hammer,
posts very little and when he does there is hardly any content
so what aever happened to this

Will make a post more with a more detailed amount of my thoughts so far later

My game changing analysis is nearly here. Hopefully sometime sunday

It's almost a week past schedule. Any cost overruns as well on this project?

[killa seven]

I'm back, catching up.

[The Fonz]

Deadline for day one is the 7th of January 2009, or three weeks on monday. Prodding farside22.

Tubby216 (6): SensFan, Yosarian2, Der Hammer, OhGodMyLife, xyzzy, Natirasha,
Der Hammer (3): Hoopla, Xylthixlm, Shanba
OhGodMyLife (2) - farside22, tubby216,
Xylthixlm (1): Sir Tornado
curiouskarmadog (1): iamausername
Shanba (1): Battle Mage

not voting: Killa Seven, skitzer, curiouskarmadog, militant, (Puta Puta), Seraphim, vollkan, Ectomancer

ED: Musta copied when I thought I cut. You'll notice the totals are right. Cheers hoopla.

[Hoopla]

Hey Fonz, you have my name voting twice.

[farside22]

Prod received. Will catch up on Monday.

[The Fonz]

Claus replaces Puta Puta.

[Claus]

Puta Puta? What a name... *roll*

Hey kids! I'll try to read the thread and post some stuff tomorrow. If there is anything in particular you want me to answer or comment on, feel free to point it out in the mean while.