Open 889 | Secrets of the Anuket Topaz | fin.

[Andresvmb]

Okay off to bed for real. Let’s hope I finish reading before I get randomly executed.

[imaginality]

My first impression of Andres' bunch of posts just now is the thought process makes sense to me. Particularly the suspicion of gob but also the wariness over Shirou.

I feel like it woule have been really tempting for Andres as scum to add to the pressure on StD rather than redirecting to gob. Unless the scumteam is specifically Andres and StD. But I still doubt camel escapes first with StD as a scumbuddy though. So I'm going to say Andres is town.

VOTE: gob

[Prism]

My first impression is that it is an impressive set of posts: very clear, mostly logical, and relatively thorough.

Unfortunately, my opinion of his alignment is unchanged. I don't think it's an accident he lands on gob. I also don't think it's an accident that he skipped my argument about camel's pairing of him and gob instead of using it to point to gob, nor that he skipped camel openly stating he "felt a weird" compulsion to defend gob.

I have more work to do on reading into gob, but my confidence ticked a little bit higher tonight.

[jjh927]

I dunno Prism, my first impression is that there are a couple of tells that Andres hasn't read enough of the last 10 pages to understand the current gamestate

[jjh927]

I wanted hard stances on STD or Andres (you know, like votes) at this point as more of an insurance policy than anything but I think that ship has sailed

[Prism]

I dunno Prism, my first impression is that there are a couple of tells that Andres hasn't read enough of the last 10 pages to understand the current gamestate

I definitely believe he doesn't have complete knowledge, but he was clearly aware of the increased pressure on gob and wasn't trying to hide that fact.

[redacted for brevity]

I’m guessing gob has attracted a lot of scrutiny for this and 528, 559 already? I think you can safely argue gob shouldn’t be trusted, and should remain in anyone’s pool.

He's guessing it's old ground because he knows there's pressure on the slot right now.

I don’t expect to be listened to, and I think STD is probably a decent slot to flip if we aren’t consolidating onto gob. I’ll come back tomorrow.

The fact he thinks town "consolidating onto gob" is very plausible means he knows this is a pretty general sentiment.

Moving from your general point and returning to my specific point about skipping camel's gob/Andres argument, he responded (very thoughtfully!) to the second part of my long post, and it is unlikely he does not take the first part more seriously on scumreading gob.

[Dannflor]

VC 3.4

Drunken Sailor

Save The Dragons [2]:

jjh927, Firebringer

imaginality [2]:

Save The Dragons, gob

gob [2]:

Andresvmb, imaginality

Andresvmb [1]:

Prism

T3 [1]:

Lazy Shirou

Firebringer [1]:

T3

Not Voting [1]:

Ydrasse

With 10 on-board, it takes 6 to force someone to walk the plank. Day 3 ends in (expired on 2023-11-09 13:16:15).

Mod Notes:

Firebringer is V/LA

[Lazy Shirou]

*looks at the sort of slots voting Gob*

It almost feels like the push on Gob is scum motivated like I said before...

[Prism]

From what I can tell your pool is T3, Dragons, jjh, and myself. The two voters aren't in this pool, and of the 4 only jjh has really challenged the gob townreads.

[Prism]

To be fair, you (very accurately) call imaginality and Andres coinflips, but they don't appear to be in your bottom even by default. I am skeptical of your pool on various other grounds, but I don't think the "this push is scum-motivated" line really squares with your own reads.

[Prism]

To be fair, you (very accurately) call imaginality and Andres coinflips, but they don't appear to be in your bottom [reads] even by default. I am skeptical of your pool on various other grounds, but I don't think the "this push is scum-motivated" line really squares with your own reads.

Unfortunate time to forget a word, lmao

[Prism]

I'm keen to look back and see who helped funnel today into me v Titus. And at camel interactions.

Any update on this?

This is what I found in terms of people trying to guide the D2 focus towards Titus v me:

gut impulse is that it's titus + imaginality + 1

Imaginality scum becomes a lot more likely if you're town [this was to Titus]

i think titus is a good vote if people wanted to vote her but i don’t think that happens so i’m on imaginality

UNVOTE:
going to reread soon, don’t feel so keen about this vote anymore
titus v imaginality could be s/s but that doesn’t feel right rn

Well we never want to vote outside of Titus/imaginality today because they were both the strongest c-wagons when you factor out people afk-parked on Ydrasse.

This is probably the most +town post imaginality has made all game. It squares very clearly with the reevaluation reads he gave earlier that weren't explained indepth:

Spoiler: Reads wall

Since my previous posts (aside from the one liner) I looked again at the time line and yeah my Prism-gob paranoia was probably indeed just paranoia. Although of the two, I still feel a bit wary of gob individually.

...

Town: jjh, Shirou, T3, Prism
Lean scum: gob, Ydrasse

I get that the Prism/gob speculation died and the timeline criticism eased. Can you explain why it moved me all the way up to town? I'd also appreciate an update with where your reads are at.

You got promoted to town based on vibes - in that whereas earlier I'd found it hard to get a sense of how I read your posts (they felt pro town but in a way that could come from town or from skilled scum), but that later passage of play felt like you were responding genuinely to me. It also felt like it would have been a good time to push me harder if you were scum and thought my reasons were bad, whereas you disagreed in a more open way. Gob on the other hand even though I was wrong on that particular point, I got scummier vibes from how he interacted with me.

My reads are a bit fucked after scumreading both the lims. My confidence is low and I'm secondguessing myself about who else I'm wrong about one way or the other.

Townlean:
Prism
Jjh

Unsure:

Shirou (not sure Shirou bothers to vote me for bad reasons end of D2 if he knows I'm town as well as Titus - could have reflected badly on him if I were limmed)
T3 - need to reread more
Fire (hasn't triggered any alarms but I don't feel particularly confident enough to call him town)
Andres - I remember some D2 posts seemed not great but I haven't dug back into it yet
SavetheDragons - like I say, I'm not sure camel leaves before StD (unless maybe there's some juicy associatives with StD; if there is it'd probably be someone defending him/steering attention away from him at the times it seemed his wagon could build to a lim... will try to look into that)

Scumlean:
Ydrasse
gob

The short of the spoilered is that he wound up with gob and Ydrasse at the bottom.

[jjh927]

The biggest thing for me right now is I think that there is no way andres and std are both scum together at this point, which is what I was talking about with regards to insurance

The number of people who sat doing fuck all is the big problem that makes it really hard to get good info

[Prism]

That was my leading scumteam guess. I thought the Andres vote today was against that idea but not decisive. Rereading Dragons' ISO, though, I can see what you mean. Of the two, I'm still definitely flipping Andres first.

I'm very concerned about the pick today. Some of my townreads I am very sure on (jjh, Shirou), others I am pretty sure on (T3), and others are much more tenuous (Fire, Ydrasse). Individually, these reads have a high chance of being correct, but taken collectively the chance of all being correct is 50% at best, and likely much worse. Being wrong anywhere down that line means a loss if we miss today and the easy scum escapes.

[Prism]

I'm still not sold on gob. I think this is correct as far as it points to gob town, even though there is a WIFOM element to it.

I wasn't keen on trying hard today to lead on anyone and still ain't, but if you're going to post about gob, which Camel publicly said "he felt a duty to defend" and "sell me on this wagon it can't be that bad since shirou is on it", I think I may as well address my own tinfoil theory which is T3.

[Prism]

Did you read gob's scumgame by chance, jjh?

I think there are a few takeaways from it. I recommend Ctrl+F searching Animated Wiz and Merlyn, his partners.

First, gob tends to be very noncommittal when townleaning a partner. Second, looking at the partner ISOs and comparing it to gob's, he continuously failed to respond to the partner's questions and to interact with them at all. I think this is a stark contrast to this game, where he repeatedly returned to dialoguing with camel.

[Prism]

I missed a post in your ISO that suggested you have read it. I concur that his tone isn't very AI, though I suspect his chronic aversion to ever voting someone out is.

[Prism]

I am now extremely confident that gob is town.

I will not be voting there today under any circumstance. I will only be voting Andres unless required to vote elsewhere.

So uh, on camel we have


-Scum on backend of std wagon (pointing away from camel)
-Suddenly, camel is scum for what gob posted earlier

(which does not exist because the prior posted quote is the only earlier commentary on camel)

and is a plausible option for scum on the std wagon
-gob reads 2 posts from before, the latter of which contains camel's reads and then he's like yep that's town now because he agrees with the reads

This wasn't true. Here's the progression:

shirou is scum

UNVOTE: gob

VOTE: Save The Dragons

what was this about? kind of odd to say someone is scum but then vote someone else.

jjh927 is also pretty towny

imginality i think just plays like that so i don't think they're scummy anymore

camel is pretty scummy for what i posted before

I still stand by what I said about the StD wagon. camelCasedSnivy, Shirou, Ydrasse, Alisae, Prism

This probably does have one scum. I'd say camel or Alisae. Prism, idk they're weird. We'll see.

It's very reasonable imo-he thought camel scumreading Shirou [a misinterpretation because camel was playing an opposite joke] but voting Dragons was a bizarre choice.

so im not quite sure if it was obvious but i didn't have much to go off of that std was scum

i liked his posting after we built up a wagon on him so after some time i got off

the gob wagon feels like the same process but with different results i don't like it

HM maybe you are not scum after all.

gob liked that camel was wagoning to drive content rather than to actually get Dragons voted out. He then pretty consistently townreads camel, dialogues with camel about reads, defends camel to me and T3, and talks with camel about how he also wants to flip me.

The next day, he flips his read on camel to more of a null-scum. His reason is "I've felt camel was solvey day 1. This past day though I feel like they have just been messing around." This is a clear progression from his Day 1 read where he liked camel's early wagoning and prodding around.

[Prism]

The above post is very rigorous, and the result of several days of thought culminating in a more pointed review and decisive conclusion.

I want to distinguish it from what I am about to say next, which is much more off-the-cuff, intuitive, and not yet researched.

I think the team is exactly Andres and Firebringer.

[Prism]

Skimming through, I'm not really sold on that scumteam proposition (Andres/Firebringer exactly) even though it's plausible.

I think for now it suffices to say that I am extremely sure gob is town after 3139, 3140, and 3142, and that I scumread Andres greatly after 3083 and 3127. If I were to get a single shot at winning this game, I am flipping Andres every single time.

I am lukewarm on Dragons. I did a cursory review there and found it plausible either way, and while I could explain more fully the competing perspectives in my mind, I will save it for now. I am equally uncertain about imaginality.

[jjh927]

I am going to be immensely pissed off if I go with Andres and he flips town and then std leaves the game

[jjh927]

I do see the gob progression now though. Makes more sense. I didn't connect that earlier post as being the reason gob scumread camels at that time

[Prism]

I am going to be immensely pissed off if I go with Andres and he flips town and then std leaves the game

If it helps so will I but that's sandbagging for you, he's deadweight as town so he can be deadweight as scum in games like these

[Prism]

Dragons is next up on my review list FWIW

[gob]

I am wondering why everyone forgot about Imaginality today. Do people just not find them scummy like me or what?

Thanks for the defense Prism.