Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

[bionicchop2]

While I am at it:

If town is lynched, we are 2 scum 6 town at night. A double kill would put us at 2:4 (3 confirmed) and essentially lylo. We could nl, but a confirmed would be killed and it would be pointless. If he hides behind scum, we get the guaranteed lynch (still 2 night deaths) and finish off at 1:3 again (2 confirmed).

[afatchic]

Heres my idea that im having right now, if its flawed someone please tell me. but everyone list there top three suspects out of the 5 uncleared. ill add them up by:
1)+3
2)+2
3)+1
and whoever gets the most points(suspected by the most people) will be who i will check.

[StrangerCoug]

Heres my idea that im having right now, if its flawed someone please tell me. but everyone list there top three suspects out of the 5 uncleared. ill add them up by:
1)+3
2)+2
3)+1
and whoever gets the most points(suspected by the most people) will be who i will check.

I think it's obvious that Xtoxm's my #1 given that's whom I'm voting. I don't have a very good scum read on anyone else, though. Somebody needs to remind me of the case on Crazy.

[afatchic]

I don't really have a "case" against crazy. i just did process of elimination and case up with crazy as one of the scum. but beside that i've had a little scummy feeling from crazy most of the game. tomorrow after my last two finals i will try to put a case up against one of the three remaining possible scum in my mind.

[bionicchop2]

Heres my idea that im having right now, if its flawed someone please tell me. but everyone list there top three suspects out of the 5 uncleared. ill add them up by:
1)+3
2)+2
3)+1
and whoever gets the most points(suspected by the most people) will be who i will check.

I would limit this to the 4 cleared players for the obvious reason that 2 of the uncleared are scum.

Out of the 4 uncleared besides myself, I would put Ortolan as most-likely to be town. Crazy has lurked a good portion of this game. I can't figure out if it is his general lack of interest in forum mafia which he claims or a strategic avoidance. My vote is on Camn, so obviously suspicious of her. Xtoxm, as I said near the end of yesterday, is playing more in line with his scum-meta than his town meta IMO. He did have a 'townie outburst' today, but it doesn't completely eliminate my meta-read.

To rank:

1. Camn - could drop down, but I feel like everybody is ignoring her as a suspect. Could be the posting style of overly joking that has my read on scum.

2. Xtoxm - As I stated, mostly meta-readons. He is generally more decisive and aggressive as town. Post lengths are always consistant, but he tends to make less waves as scum.

3. Crazy - lack of content leads to lack of anything identifiable as a scum action, but the same lack of content is very troublesome.

4. Ortolan - Out of the 4, seems to be the most genuine in his approach to the game so far. While the scum-hunting hasn't been great, I think his early game ideas about the open setup were town motivated and I think he handled Camn's pressure fairly well.

[StrangerCoug]

bionicchop2, not to draw any heat in my direction, but since when was I cleared?

[bionicchop2]

bionicchop2, not to draw any heat in my direction, but since when was I cleared?

Okay here are my thoughts....
Im the hider. i was going to wait and hope a scum would try to claim it first, but im very impatient and the game has slowed down tonight.
Clears:
Afatchic
OrangePenguin
IcemanE
StrangerCoug

Unclear:
Bionicchop2
Camn
Crazy
Ortolan
Xtoxm

He hid behind you last night.

[StrangerCoug]

Oh.

[Xtoxm]

Tbh, this is what I think is best.

Fat, I think you should hide behind no-one, and garantee that we keep two mislynches. Given how yesterday went down, i'm happy to say Ort is town. I'm actually surprised people are suspicious of me.

Then we just lynch Me/Crazy/Bio/Camn.

Infact, Bio's fluff about what you should do at night just looks scum trying to think of a way of giving his team a small chance of being played back into contention, when town can realistically cruise to victory here. I think Bio is scum and realises the chance that Ort-Town being mislynched (which is required for his victory) is near zero.

So, when you take your night action Fat, please consider the chance that you will be playing town out. No action may well be the optimal decision.

[bionicchop2]

Fat, I think you should hide behind no-one, and garantee that we keep two mislynches.

This sounds a little like scum who might be afraid of suspects being narrowed down / scum being figured out.

current - 2:7 - 5 suspects
mislynch - 2:6 - 4 suspects
night kill (no hide) - 2:5 (hider dies) - 4 suspects
mislynch - 2:4 - 3 suspects
night kill - 2:3 - 3 suspects

Even though we have an extra mislynch, the mislynch does not gain us anything. The 2:3 endgame is the same as the 2:4 endgame generated and afatchic hiding functions as a mislynch if she chooses town. The possible benefit of her hiding is to find scum without any doubts.

[Xtoxm]

Lol.

Unvote Vote Bio

When i'm offering myself as a lynch?

That post makes me quite confident you are scum.

[orangepenguin]

It really sucks that my role copping powers can do nothing, regarding scum. At this point, all I can do is confirm that afatchic is the hider, which, considering that nobody has counter-claimed, and probably won't, it seems a bit useless.

I don't think we should rule out ortolan as scum. If ort is scum, I am thinking his partners (either bio or xtoxm) are trying to get the idea that ort is town out there, that way, when either of them is eventually lynched, there partner is saved for the win. Now, I think there is a good chance crazy is scum still.

I think afatchic should hide behind whoever she thinks is the scummiest, since, if there is no double kill, it will reveal scum, right? I don't know how that works at all. Hopefully, we lynch scum today though.

The big back and forth between bio and xtoxm just makes them look bad though, IMO, and makes me think one of them is definitely scum. Eh. So confused. I'll have to look at each.

I chose Crazy to rolecop though, because I thought he was scum, going under the radar. I got the town result, indicating he wasn't the hider. So he is either town or scum.

[Xtoxm]

Anyway, cleared townies: Don't listen to the BS Bio is spewing. Although on the surface it appears to help town, the low precentage chance of it helping scum, which would be zero if Fat no-actioned.

[Xtoxm]

It really sucks that my role copping powers can do nothing, regarding scum. At this point, all I can do is confirm that afatchic is the hider, which, considering that nobody has counter-claimed, and probably won't, it seems a bit useless.

I don't think we should rule out ortolan as scum. If ort is scum, I am thinking his partners (either bio or xtoxm) are trying to get the idea that ort is town out there, that way, when either of them is eventually lynched, there partner is saved for the win. Now, I think there is a good chance crazy is scum still.

I think afatchic should hide behind whoever she thinks is the scummiest, since, if there is no double kill, it will reveal scum, right? I don't know how that works at all. Hopefully, we lynch scum today though.

The big back and forth between bio and xtoxm just makes them look bad though, IMO, and makes me think one of them is definitely scum. Eh. So confused. I'll have to look at each.

I chose Crazy to rolecop though, because I thought he was scum, going under the radar. I got the town result, indicating he wasn't the hider. So he is either town or scum.

It confirms scum, but wastes a mislynch. It's better for Fat to stay alive, and we can just use the mislynch on the one he would otherwise have hid behind.

[bionicchop2]

Day 1 posts referencing me:

I can see PS scum, but Bio looks good to me.

Day 2 posts referencing me:

(after you thought I claimed hider)

Yay, another game with me OP and Bio being confirmed town

Bio has claimed Hider, clearing me and Camn.

Read Bio's last post. He had to claim because the risk of being CCed later when he apparantly hid behind the nightkill wasn't worth staying hidden. Not much harm in Hider claiming by this point anyway really, he can just hide at night...

It sounded an awful lot like you were, Bio.

Bio N1 was Camn.

Lo and behold after I present you as my 2nd suspect:

Then we just lynch Me/Crazy/Bio/Camn.

Infact, Bio's fluff about what you should do at night just looks scum trying to think of a way of giving his team a small chance of being played back into contention, when town can realistically cruise to victory here. I think Bio is scum and realises the chance that Ort-Town being mislynched (which is required for his victory) is near zero.

===========
xtoxm - you never answered my question as to why you voted for crazy today, especially after this post from you earlier in the day:

I thought Crazy looked better towards the end of yesterday

[bionicchop2]

I don't see why you would push a no-hide here:

If we could 'waste a mislynch' on who he would hide behind, why not just let him hide behind them? It has a chance to 100% nail scum - and if we lynch scum today, it would guarantee a town win. Not hiding leaves an extra possibility for scum to win.

[StrangerCoug]

Xtoxm, stop vote hopping.

[camn]

um...
1)+3 Xtoxm
2)+2 Crazy
3)+1 Bionic

Though this would be some pretty sweet distancing if Xtoxm and Bionic were the scum!

[orangepenguin]

1. Xtoxm
2. Crazy
3. Bionic
4. camn

[orangepenguin]

ETA: Put camn at 5, with ort at 4.

[afatchic]

Mine:
1)Crazy
2)Bionnichop2
3)Xtoxm

Xtoxm-9(bio:2,Camn:3,OP:3, AFC:1)
Crazy-8(bio:1,Camn:2,OP:2, AFC:3)
Bionnichop2-4(Camn:1,OP:1, AFC:2)
Camn-3(bio:3)
Ortolan

Not voting: Xtoxm, Crazy, StrangerCoug, Ortolan, IcemanE

And I would like everyone, not just the clears, to vote on this. I don’t think two scum will be able to through the votes off too much without making it obvious. And it will give us more info tomorrow.

And yes I will be hiding tonight. I like taking chances and I wanna go for the win. So I will be hiding.

[camn]

This is the most Math-Driven mafia game I have ever played!

[afatchic]

This is the most Math-Driven mafia game I have ever played!

Haha, i know, gotta love it.

[orangepenguin]

3 Mafia Goons (Haschel)
1 Rolecop (Penguin)
1 Hider (AFC)
2 Watchers (TCS, KMD)
5 Townies (Iceman, SC)

-------------

2 Mafia Goons
3 Townies

Scenario A: bio is scum. partner is camn
Scenario B: bio is scum. partner is Crazy
Scenario C: bio is scum. partner is ort.
Scenario D: bio is scum. partner is xtoxm
Scenario E: camn is scum. partner is crazy.
Scenario F: camn is scum. partner is ort.
Scenario G: camn is scum. partner is xtoxm
Scenario H: Crazy is scum. partner is ort.
Scenario I: Crazy is scum. partner is xtoxm.
Scenario J: ortlolan is scum. partner is xtoxm

There are 10 different scenarios.

[afatchic]

Im gonna take scenario B.