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Post Post #4025 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 8:40 pm

Post by Enchant »

If you see it from other perspective, Enigma questioned Guilty claim previous day and then bah Enigma jailed.
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Post Post #4026 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 8:42 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

frankly I'm not even sure whether I would register as a player that can 'remove' players, at the time when I thought he investigated me and was hinting at a 'can remove players' result I figured that meant jailing someone is 'removing' them from the game for a night. but it's possible I would actually turn up inno if the definition of 'remove' is strictly night kill

p-edit: yes because I thought that meant Enigma had already used two investigations and likely didn't have a third. and I also thought scum might be more likely to kill him so that it would be just 'assumed' that I'm guilty and he wouldn't be able to explain why he was asking me to claim
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Post Post #4027 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 8:46 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I recognize this all does sound objectively suspicious so I'm not going to be too offended if I'm limmed, but I will try to call out the votes on me that seem like bullshit. I think Ali is being genuine but Titus + KKFC should receive scrutiny for their votes. I'm also a tiny bit paranoid that Dusa loosely defending me / voting furtive is someone who knows for sure that I'm town but overall it's probably more likely than not she's just familiar enough with me to know that me believing Dann isn't scum-indicative
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Post Post #4028 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 8:49 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 641, Dannflor wrote: I am like pretty comfortable with [ina, GL, Fire Assassin] as town right now

I wish that list was a little longer

[Titus, Drew, Ari, Dusa] I can all see as town if i squint at them enough such that I probably don’t want to go anywhere there today
I would bet there's at least one scum in the 7 players in this post. It's not Ari, it's not me, if we believe Ranger it's not FA. personally I'd bet on the top three all being town and Titus or Dusa being scum in the "squint town" tier, probably Titus
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Post Post #4029 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 8:53 pm

Post by Enchant »

There's actually big hole in GuiltyLion logic if think about it.


Previous day Enigma pressured Guilty to claim, and it's not something you will ask from someone who you know are innocent. So there's possible logic followings:
1. Enigma has "Can't kill" result on Lion-Town and then started to pressure for claim even if Lion should be "Innocent". It's a kin if Ranger now pressured me to claim after i was investigated as town. Weird huh? So Lion beliving Enigma has innocent result on him and then deciding to protect them is... Well. Unreasonable. Because that's not how you approach innocent checks.
2. Enigme questioned Lion-Mafia for future check. Lion fearing real investigation "protects" them in jail. I think motivation to do so is clear.
3. Enigma has "Can Kill" on Lion-Mafia and questioning to claim. Then jail was mostly... Idk, useless or preventive, i am not guessing what honestly, yet Lion didn't claim to "Dodge" investigation which a tells in a his benefit. A little.


I will stay on Furtive but damn it's weird.
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Post Post #4030 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 8:53 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

also I'm just vomiting some thoughts right now in an effort to maybe magically townspew but @RCE for the record it's Not Cool to demand that I claim like that when you're reason for asking is nothing but your own theory about how I reacted to somebody else's claim. Your reasoning was wrong and I wouldn't have agreed to claim if I had known you didn't actually have any hard info from your own role that was making you question my alignment. I might have had to wind up claiming today regardless, and I don't think me claiming is a tremendous loss here, but in the future that's an anti-town way to play
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Post Post #4031 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:00 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

Spoiler: D1 interactions between Dann & Norwee regarding Wheme
In post 673, Dannflor wrote: If Whemestar flips town I would lim Norwegian in a heartbeat for this TMI-feeling defense
In post 676, Dannflor wrote:
In post 674, NorwegianboyEE wrote: You’d lim me for being good at the game?
Damn dannyboi
your skills would be too powerful
In post 703, Dannflor wrote:
In post 661, NorwegianboyEE wrote: yah there's some fluff. But i think that at the crucial moments they have shown to have some real substance too their thoughts.
This post shows an conclusion about a lot of different circumstances that all required real thinking.
In post 579, WhemeStar wrote: Ok I’m caught up

Thoughts thoughts thoughts

-surprised I’m not on bottom of rangers readslists what’s going on Ranger
-initially townread 1 of jjh’s posts but don’t really like their pressuring on ari
-I thought osukas catchup was rly towny idk how ppl are scumreading it
-dusas ari/ranger vote was weird and I’m still thinking to myself if scum places those votes like that cause it seems like such an obvious ping
I wouldn't call it strong evidence but it did make me raise an eyebrow at how you were claiming that they "have no substance behind their posts".
I just don't believe this read Norwegian

that post takes no real stances, it's hedgy, and it doesn't directly engage with anyone.

the only real stance taken is a town read on osuka, that's barely content. there is no substance in this post! I can't really gauge whether this makes Whemestar town or scum until Whemestar shows up with the supposed substance that is supposed to be behind this post

but the fact that you so strongly see substance behind the post feels like that's only the case because you *know* it is there
In post 711, Dannflor wrote: kinda think norwegian doubling down on a strong town read of whemestar is a panic reaction
In post 713, Dannflor wrote: like this is not a situation where a soul read is justified
In post 724, Dannflor wrote: I wish you'd led with norwe


angleshooty theory here - this feels to me like scum theatering over disagreeing on how to read a town-slot (Wheme). I think if Dann knows Norwee is scum and both of them know Wheme is town, this is exactly how they'd riff on each other to create some distance that ultimately amounts to nothing except making Norwee look good. Dann's 180 between and is very fast if Norwee is a slot he might want to miselim at some point in the game, and I question what his overall goal with this push was given how quickly he dropped it.
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Post Post #4032 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:13 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I also don't see Norwee as unpartnered with Dann in any sort of way reading his ISO for Dann mentions

he calls him "obvious town" in , pushes back on Osuka suspecting Dann in , Dann wagon "will never get any support" , now knowing Dann is scum is just a super pockety comment towards Andres, especially since Andres was steering incorrect with his team solves.

this post is so bad I will quote it so it stands out:
In post 3588, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 3548, GuiltyLion wrote: Hmm

I believe Dann tbh. As many people have said, "Behavior > Mech" and I do not think he has played like scum

Can we stick with Ranger? Ali do you actually think Ranger is town and if so why?
Yeah Dann not claiming ascetic was bad, but like i could see it as a town misplay. Dann’s reaction seems good. Though if he’s scum and we let him go it would be quite painful post-game lol.
@Alisae - if you want a wolf who's paired with Dann and is trying to defend him while still hedging based on what town decides to do, that's what THIS is. "reaction seems good, but idk guys imagine if we lose to Dann lol". This is somebody who knows Dann's alignment.

I also think Norwee's momentum and influence in this game has steadily declined after he picked up sufficient townreads on D1. Like in he says he's down to end the day once everybody else is, why does he have no interest in partner hunting or commenting on anything else going on? That feels to me very much like the kind of post I make as scum when there's an obvious elimination that has to go through (whether it's on my buddy or town) and I want to move the game along while sounding like I'm being pro-town by letting other people talk about things and vote when ready. I would normally want and expect town to have a little more impetus here, there were already people pushing for me after Dann, there was KKFC claiming neighbor weirdness, RCE claims, etc. No comments on any of that and no comments on who he thinks Dann's buddies are. In D4 so far he's only posted
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Post Post #4033 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:18 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

hot take but feels like it should clear osuka as never partnered with Dann in this game. That strikes me very strongly as scum who is attempting to both manipulate and discredit a townie's opinion, NOT theater.
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Post Post #4034 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:21 pm

Post by Dusa »

Nah that's real good shit but dann's a monster he could write that real good shit
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Post Post #4035 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:22 pm

Post by Dusa »

Norwee scum theory is pretty good? I think
?
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Post Post #4036 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:23 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 881, Dannflor wrote: I think [Dusa, Aristeia, jjh, GL, Fire Assassin] is like a very solid town block

There's like a small part of me wary about GL soft-defending / trying to talk me out of my osuka scum read earlier, but that's fully off of pre-flip associations and every other aspect of GuiltyLion's iso makes me want to town bin him. There have been several times he's prodded slots right when I was thinking along the same lines. I like that he's challenged Andres town reads because I *think* that would be an easy slot for him to townblock with given their entrances together and rapport right off the bat. Also, more recently, I like the effectiveness of in trying to make a point super super clear and cut off any extraneous discussion. I know as scum I love to carry on explaining misunderstandings or unproductive conversations because it's just like free content, whereas that post felt like GL wanting to communicate as efficiently and as quickly as possible.
In post 882, Dannflor wrote: mmmm probably put ina marija in there too

I think after the opening ina has felt pretty agendaless, and recently I think the almost indignant "why aren't you talking about me" to several slots is pretty towny. I don't feel ina would be asking for the same type of attention as scum
these posts are interesting

FMPOV knowing all of Ari+jjh+GL+(most likely) FA are town, the question is whether Dann would really sign up for a town block that doesn't have any buddies in it. I don't think there's a particularly strong reason not to, and if anything I think it's suspicious that Titus disappeared off his townreads list at the same time Dusa got a lot stronger. I would guess this indicates that Dusa is town and at this point felt less threatening to Dann, he felt more comfortable not needing to shade/discredit her since he had enough of a sense of her reads that she wasn't a threat at this point.

adding on ina as an after thought is ++town for Alisae too. I think I'd say this is most likely all town players, and it does further reinforce my Titus suspicion.

Also I feel compelled to say the second half of is pretty clearly meant to pocket me and not something scum needs or tends to do about a buddy, wax poetic about how much they like how they're reading the game. WIFOM coming from me I guess but like come on, let's use our brains for a minute here
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Post Post #4037 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:29 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 886, Dannflor wrote: [kkfc, bluesnakelet, rce, whemestar, osuka] are the slots I'd be most enthusiastic about wagoning and probably fine with limming today

osuka i won't go into

kkfc, pretty much I think aristeia's points on the slot are salient

whemestar, I didn't love their pop in to defend themselves before just ghosting again

RCE, rereading the last several pages I hated . i feel like if scum were actually TMIing whemestar this is actually it. the timing of it comes after a few other people express a similar read and it feels like it's trying to blend in more than anything? RCE also feels like they are in a similar mode as osuka besides that post

Bluesnakelet, now that I think Ari vs. jjh is more strongly TvT, I hate its positioning around that 1v1. doesn't read like BS thinks the fight is TvT, in fact it reads as specifically attacking/discrediting Ari, but he later says he's town reading Ari in and says his goal was to "make ari stop doing that" in which... I just do not think the wording of 501 is how someone talks to a town read to try to convince them to stop doing something. I also just in general think scum are more likely to position around the fight safely by calling it a TvT off the bat but still try to egg it on in some ways
I'm less certain on this post but I also wouldn't be surprised if this is all town

I should probably sleep soon and rest my brain before continuing & finishing the Dann deep dive as I'm going to be prone to confirmation bias and tunneling but it stands out that all of furtive, Titus, and Norwee are not in either Dann's town or scum bloc at this point in the game. I guess I'd be surprised if that's the exact team but it definitely raises the odds of each of them being scum individually
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Post Post #4038 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:29 pm

Post by Dusa »

Doesn't everyone kinda wanna believe every claim. But then you gotta go turn the hologramachine off idk
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Post Post #4039 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:33 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1040, Dannflor wrote:
In post 907, Dusa wrote:
In post 881, Dannflor wrote: I think [
Dusa
, Aristeia, jjh, GL,
Fire Assassin
] is like a very solid town block
Why?
I don't think I've found a child of the Professor yet.. and you doubt most of my theories!

I cannot remember Fire Assassin well even when he comes through often..

Ina Marija is a greater hero than all of these! Especially me ..
- fire assassin isn't playing for optics imo, stuff like shutting down lines of discussion and going against the current grain of the thread (voting me or defending Norwegian) feels anti-scum
-I also really liked their engagement with osuka. tbh I think it would've been really easy to pile on the attacky pressure hard, but and feel like genuine attempts to sort what might be an easy slot to pile onto

- my read on you is more vibey
- i haven't agreed with all your stances but you take *a lot* of stances and you mistrust GuiltyLion who is a pretty universally town read slot, both things I would not expect as much from your scum game
- idk im like marginally worried i just am predisposed to townreading the fun dusa aesthetic but you seem relaxed, inquisitive, have your *own* reads that aren't the thread's reads necessarily. I think I trust you more because I don't agree with you a ton.


this looks unpaired with Dusa I think, more Dusa's than Dann's reply but I get pockety vibes from this. And the "I disagree with your stances but I think you are town thing" fits in with my theory that Dann increased his townread on Dusa the more Dusa started pushing or suspecting town, while grabbing towncred himself by WKing those slots or sticking to his own miselims

I'll need to go back and check what specific 'theories' were in dispute to really form a full opinion but it's a good starting point if someone else wants to do that work
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Post Post #4040 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:38 pm

Post by Dusa »

Dannflor townreading me kinda says nothing about my alignment cause I'm Isis. I think in Magical Girls uPick he said something like you're always obviously town or something. In Ali V Pine he hard townread me multiple times when I was a consensus scumread, and he was scum. When I rolled scum with him in apocalypse uPick, he went a townread onto me because it was the most natural. When I rolled scum against him in nightmare mafia, I snowed him. I think I also snowed him in purgatory mafia? I did well in general in purgatory but being forced to flip townread partners in that setup incriminated me I think he voted me this weird trend has an upper limit.
As you know in the nsg neighborhood game he correctly townread my slot earlier than most people.

I think it didn't take much progress out of low information stage for him to be at a point where it was hard to pretend he doesn't like always townread my playstyle and it's playing hard mode on emulating the town version of oneself to not pocket me.

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Post Post #4041 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:39 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

also a pattern I'm seeing is Dann peppering furtive with a lot of random small questions that don't lead anywhere notable
In post 130, Dannflor wrote:
In post 125, furtiveglance wrote: Dusa, can you explain what the demigod stuff means? I think it's the only thing I don't understand in the thread so far.
is that actually the only thing you want to interact with so far?
In post 140, Dannflor wrote:
In post 134, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 130, Dannflor wrote:
In post 125, furtiveglance wrote: Dusa, can you explain what the demigod stuff means? I think it's the only thing I don't understand in the thread so far.
is that actually the only thing you want to interact with so far?
Do you understand what it means - what kind of read it expresses?
she’s roleplaying as Dusa from the acclaimed video game hades and using greek myth references to explain her reads

Do you have any thoughts on ina or ranger or me
In post 474, Dannflor wrote: why is drew town furtive
In post 1184, Dannflor wrote: Furtive are you concerned at all about the RCE / Andres / Ranger vote hop ons to the osuka wagon?

or do the Sail votes you talked about just seem strictly worse for some reason
In post 2355, Dannflor wrote: furtive why is ranger town to you

what exactly has been consistent with her town game

what would you be looking for to see if she was a daughter of the Professor?
Like at this point we're a solid 2300 posts into the game and these are all the interactions with furtive that Dann has, I'm not cherrypicking, you can verify yourself.

Contrast that to the novels that he's writing in dialogue with me, osuka, Dusa. and while he always has nitpicks with furtive's reads or posts, furtive didn't make the scum bucket in
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Post Post #4042 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:40 pm

Post by Dusa »

U can def scumread me bc you don't like my progression on your slot lion idk what my progression on your slot is either
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Post Post #4043 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:41 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

ok I'm gonna pause there as my head is starting to ache with tired but I will resume this exercise at some point tomorrow as I do think Dann's ISO is a goldmine for associative content and I figure this will be a useful legacy to leave behind in the event I am limmed
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Post Post #4044 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:43 pm

Post by Dusa »

Furtive is getting limmed you can do a baller jailing as your legacy
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Post Post #4045 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:45 pm

Post by Dusa »

Wait enchant was originally fire assassin?

what a soggy cop check
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Post Post #4046 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:54 pm

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 4032, GuiltyLion wrote: I also don't see Norwee as unpartnered with Dann in any sort of way reading his ISO for Dann mentions

he calls him "obvious town" in , pushes back on Osuka suspecting Dann in , Dann wagon "will never get any support" , now knowing Dann is scum is just a super pockety comment towards Andres, especially since Andres was steering incorrect with his team solves.

this post is so bad I will quote it so it stands out:
In post 3588, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 3548, GuiltyLion wrote: Hmm

I believe Dann tbh. As many people have said, "Behavior > Mech" and I do not think he has played like scum

Can we stick with Ranger? Ali do you actually think Ranger is town and if so why?
Yeah Dann not claiming ascetic was bad, but like i could see it as a town misplay. Dann’s reaction seems good. Though if he’s scum and we let him go it would be quite painful post-game lol.
@Alisae - if you want a wolf who's paired with Dann and is trying to defend him while still hedging based on what town decides to do, that's what THIS is. "reaction seems good, but idk guys imagine if we lose to Dann lol". This is somebody who knows Dann's alignment.

I also think Norwee's momentum and influence in this game has steadily declined after he picked up sufficient townreads on D1. Like in he says he's down to end the day once everybody else is, why does he have no interest in partner hunting or commenting on anything else going on? That feels to me very much like the kind of post I make as scum when there's an obvious elimination that has to go through (whether it's on my buddy or town) and I want to move the game along while sounding like I'm being pro-town by letting other people talk about things and vote when ready. I would normally want and expect town to have a little more impetus here, there were already people pushing for me after Dann, there was KKFC claiming neighbor weirdness, RCE claims, etc. No comments on any of that and no comments on who he thinks Dann's buddies are. In D4 so far he's only posted
I don't even care anymore.

This game can go to hell.
Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting

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Post Post #4047 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:55 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

sorry couldn't resist one last thought
In post 1554, Dannflor wrote: I don’t really think osuka is scum anymore
In post 1608, Dannflor wrote:I finally got around to reviewing some osuka games. I’m hesitant to back off completely now and look stupid later, but I don’t really think osuka’s reaction to me or the gamestate has been out of character. It can certainly be faked, but looking back, I’m also not sure the rapid build of the back half of their wagon makes the *most* sense for a red flip
I also think the timing and execution of Dann backpedaling his osuka push points fairly strongly to osuka town

Dann and I are similar players overall I think, that is why I am extra susceptible to being pocketed by him, but this reminds me so much of my own scum game, where I am always trying to think a few steps ahead and reassess or re-evaluate my "scumreads" at a time when I believe town!me would authentically be re-evaluating.

(the silly thing there is that town!me is probably much more stubborn and bullheaded than I conceive of myself on the whole)

reading this just instills in me a feeling that scum!Dann was worried that osuka was town telling in a way that town!Dann would have picked up on, and he wrote this narrative about 'reviewing osuka games' to a) pretend like he was doing Work and Solving like a Good Townie Does and b) emulate how he believes he comes across as town by thoughtfully re-evaluating an incorrect scumread rather than continue to beat the table and tunnel (which always feels extra scummy when you're scum).

whereas, if osuka and Dann were buddied, I think Dann would have more of an agenda to continue scumreading osuka more strongly here. it's generally unlikely to begin with that he hardpushes a partner on D1, there's not enough towncred there to survive you to endgame in a large, but if that WAS the plan then I don't think he would decide to reverse course and hop onto Sail once it's convenient. I think he would want to maintain the push there in perpetuity so that whenever it is most tactically optimal to bus on D2 or D3 or D4 or whenever, he has the seeds planted throughout.

idk if anyone is like hard-scum reading osuka at this stage anymore but I am fairly convinced he is town based off these interactions
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #4048 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:59 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 4047, GuiltyLion wrote: was worried that osuka was town telling in a way that town!Dann would have picked up on
EBWOP - either this explanation, or he's more worried about the #Wagonomics as he indicated in . but either way I just get the vibe so hard that this is scum being like 'how do I pivot off of my D1 comfort scumread in a way that looks like I'm a Deep Thinker' as opposed to 'how can I come up with an excuse to not kill my teammate', and partly because I don't think the situation would have gotten to that stage in the first place if Dann wasn't ok with osuka going down
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #4049 (ISO) » Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:21 pm

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In post 4030, GuiltyLion wrote: also I'm just vomiting some thoughts right now in an effort to maybe magically townspew but @RCE for the record it's Not Cool to demand that I claim like that when you're reason for asking is nothing but your own theory about how I reacted to somebody else's claim. Your reasoning was wrong and I wouldn't have agreed to claim if I had known you didn't actually have any hard info from your own role that was making you question my alignment. I might have had to wind up claiming today regardless, and I don't think me claiming is a tremendous loss here, but in the future that's an anti-town way to play
I backed off it yesterday but I was fine with it today because based on yesterday the lim was definitely between you or furtive. Dann flipping red kinda sealed that.

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