Mini Normal 2309 | Finished!

[iamveryhappy]

yimmy is e-2 right? this phase isn't over yet but it doesn't have long left, i'm more interested in checking what your intentions are than asking you to move now anyway tbh

E-1. Read up.
My intentions are basic caveman instincts.

[iamveryhappy]

Don't you even try to pressure me into hammering Yimmy so I get turboed d4 and I don't get ISOed from Yimmy.

Tell you what.

I'll unvote him, you vote him, and I'll hammer him.

That way if anyone wants to bitch they'll have to deal with me.

no.
still not getting miltank out

[the worst]

i think yimmy is town and i'll hammer if we need. everyone is already going to fight me so it's win/win.

[iamveryhappy]

i think

yimmy is town

and

i'll hammer if we need

. everyone is already going to fight me so it's win/win.

ok
can't we just not get someone out if yimmy is town.

[Random Nurse]

Don't you even try to pressure me into hammering Yimmy so I get turboed d4 and I don't get ISOed from Yimmy.

Tell you what.

I'll unvote him, you vote him, and I'll hammer him.

That way if anyone wants to bitch they'll have to deal with me.

no.
still not getting miltank out

We NEED information.

At this point it's either him or you.

If you won't commit on Yimmy I'm willing to hammer you instead.

[iambrad]

so iahv is unwilling to move to yimmy?

[the worst]

i think

yimmy is town

and

i'll hammer if we need

. everyone is already going to fight me so it's win/win.

ok
can't we just not get someone out if yimmy is town.

probably not. there's a bit of an impasse about whether or not yimmy is town, and i haven't really been able to get through with anyone.

thing is - there's an impasse with EVERYONE in the poe. most people would be ok with brad, but he's not today's lim. i think a few people would be ok with me but others are giving me a pass for this phase. same with yimmy, same with you, same with dragons.

i think it's ok if we leave brad or i alive longer, because i think we're both fairly trivially solvable later in the game. i don't see you or yimmy becoming more clearable later in the game. i also think folks are taking dragons off the table wayyy too easily but that's not getting much love.


also if rn is correct & there is no vig, we never no-lim today. liming in 1:8 puts us into 1:6, 1:4, 1:2 (final 3), with 4 lims in total. if we don't lim today, then tomorrow we're in 1:7, then 1:5, then 1:3 (final 4), with 3 lims in total. town's winrate is much higher with 4 lims + final 3, than 3 lims + final 4

[the worst]

good question - iavh are you unwilling to vote yimmy at all? or are you waiting for yimmy to come & advance their read on you?

[iamveryhappy]

I'd want to wait for a iab lim. it's just better after all imo

[iambrad]

maybe this guy is town

or mafia is just slow rolling and refusing to widen the poe because of the threat of it bouncing back. otherwise, the only two people who don't fit this criteria is worst and the dragon man.

[iambrad]

maybe we do kill dragons then

[the worst]

i'm really sorry if nobody else finds this interesting, but just dawned on me that it's actually higher ev% (assuming random lims) for town in the POE to self-hammer today rather than no lim

there's some parts of this that aren't 100% accurate but iavh asked the question and i thought it was a fun theoretical exercise




with lims in the POE

Code: Select all

11.11%	day 3: 1/9 chance to win; 8/9 chance to go to n3
00.00%	night 3: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d4
14.28%	day 4: 1/7 chance to win; 6/7 chance to go to n4
00.00%	night 4: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
20.00%	day 5: 1/5 chance to win; 4/5 chance to go to n5
00.00%	night 5: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
33.33%	day 6: 1/3 chance to win; 2/3 chance to lose.

------
78.72%	chance of town win
21.28%	chance of scum win

no lim d3, then random lims:

Code: Select all

00.00%	day 3: no elimination, 9/9 chance to go into n3
00.00%	night 3: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d4
12.50%	day 4: 1/8 chance to win; 7/8 chance to go to n4
00.00%	night 4: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
16.67%	day 5: 1/6 chance to win; 4/5 chance to go to n5
00.00%	night 5: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
25.00%	day 6: 1/4 chance to win; 3/4 chance to lose.

------
54.17%	chance of town win
45.83%	chance of scum win

with a guaranteed town lim d3 (i.e. town self-hammers):

Code: Select all

00.00%	day 3: town self-hammers; 9/9 chance to go to n3
00.00%	night 3: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d4
14.28%	day 4: 1/7 chance to win; 6/7 chance to go to n4
00.00%	night 4: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
20.00%	day 5: 1/5 chance to win; 4/5 chance to go to n5
00.00%	night 5: 100% chance 1 townie is shot, going to d5
33.33%	day 6: 1/3 chance to win; 2/3 chance to lose.

------
67.61%	chance of town win
32.39%	chance of scum win

[the worst]

maybe this guy is town

or mafia is just slow rolling and refusing to widen the poe because of the threat of it bouncing back. otherwise, the only two people who don't fit this criteria is worst and the dragon man.

every single lim here feels icky but the only reason dragons feels icky is because he's vla, not because he doesn't make sense as scum.

unfortunately i couldn't find a single other person who was willing to vote him. he's getting a lot of free pass because of d1 conversations which i honestly just can't pass as unaligned.

[Random Nurse]

If this game is 9:4 I'm going to have words with dragoneater.

[iambrad]

i like your funny words magic man

[the worst]

i did the addition wrong sorry but the general gist of the theory is right

If this game is 9:4 I'm going to have words with dragoneater.

if it's 9:4 i'm very very very curious to see what the reviewers say. i've played one 4:9 closed game with nightkills on here, it wasn't a normal, and it was widely regarded as a big mistake.

[iambrad]

i doubt the setup is outlandishly favored for scum most setups on this site are weighted heavily in favor of town.

[the worst]

intent to hammer

talked myself into something

[iambrad]

uh oh

[Hu Tao]

Just vote...

[Random Nurse]

We need a VC.

[Random Nurse]

Scum will likely try to keep me alive because they perceive me to be easy mis-lim bait. Could be Hu Tao or Worst in that regard.

[iambrad]

VOTE: Yimmy

[Random Nurse]

So I messaged dragon asking for clarification on if this game is 10:3 or not and he said he's not able to provide more information that wasn't already in the OP.

SO, that's not a "yes" or a "no."

[the worst]

unofficial

Yimmy (4): Hu Tao, Naerys, bob3141, Random Nurse [E-1]
iamveryhappy (2): iambrad, the worst
the worst (1): Save The Dragons
iambrad (1): iamveryhappy
Random Nurse (1): Yimmy

Not Voting (0):

good catch, i can hammer before deadline

this is accurate still

VOTE: Yimmy