Yeah, this game needs something to get it going. Idk if a claim plan does that but it could be worth a shot.
I haven't even found a reason to vote yet. I will take this RVS off though.
UNVOTE:
I townread Alianna.
Post #1000s Collected: 25
On hiatus from playing mafia.
Yeah, this game needs something to get it going. Idk if a claim plan does that but it could be worth a shot.
I haven't even found a reason to vote yet. I will take this RVS off though.
UNVOTE:
Forgive me for keeping my vote on you
'dREW DID IT BETTER' - T-Bone
'doctor drew our hero' - Shiki
'I love playing with him, he's got an amazing presence to him that just feels like the game is lacking something when he's not there' - JacksonVirgo
Yeah, this game needs something to get it going. Idk if a claim plan does that but it could be worth a shot.
I haven't even found a reason to vote yet. I will take this RVS off though.
UNVOTE:
Forgive me for keeping my vote on you
I have some ideas as to why I might be sus here, but why am I sus?
I townread Alianna.
Post #1000s Collected: 25
On hiatus from playing mafia.
Yeah, this game needs something to get it going. Idk if a claim plan does that but it could be worth a shot.
I haven't even found a reason to vote yet. I will take this RVS off though.
UNVOTE:
Forgive me for keeping my vote on you
I have some ideas as to why I might be sus here, but why am I sus?
It's less you are suss(my vote was rvs as well), and more I wanna see how this plan of yours plays out.
And admittedly, I kinda wanna vote Merlyn......but it pains me to do so.
'dREW DID IT BETTER' - T-Bone
'doctor drew our hero' - Shiki
'I love playing with him, he's got an amazing presence to him that just feels like the game is lacking something when he's not there' - JacksonVirgo
In this setup, we've got a 25% chance that there's 3 in group 1 and 4 in group 2, a 50% chance that there's 4 in group 1 and 3 in group 2, and a 25% chance that there's 5 in group 1 and 2 in group 2. And of course, there's always 2 mafia goons, so there's 2 extra claims regardless of what setup we're actually in.
The placement of the extra claims might end up being important. Depending on the numbers, we can gain information on what the scum might have claimed. There is a chance we gain nothing of use, a chance we can confirm one of the groups contains at least one scum, and a smaller chance we can confirm one of the groups contains both scum. I'm not going to go through possible setups/outcomes/strategies unless I need to, scum can do the work themselves.
I'm not dead-set on doing this, it's just an idea.
I'm gonna be honest, i think this should be a D2 plan, not a D1 plan, there are just too many downsides to doing it D1, and most of the time we find out nothing.
Returning win rate: 4/1, 80%
In the process of creating a game to mod, we will see what it holds.
That plan would prevent vigis from shooting bombs.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
I'm not sure how frank I should be about optimal scum play. I know what I think is probably optimal town play but it's only optimal if you assume scum will play optimally.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
In post 294, Alianna wrote:
And to clarify, is it that you think my plan is actually likely to do more harm than good or is it just a bias towards SRing me?
No I am just over tired and am struggling to understand the benefit of it.
Not saying there isn't a benefit, I think I just need it to be explained to me like I am 5.
Group 1 = Vig/Blank Vig
Group 2 = Bomb/SS
In this setup, we've got a 25% chance that there's 3 in group 1 and 4 in group 2, a 50% chance that there's 4 in group 1 and 3 in group 2, and a 25% chance that there's 5 in group 1 and 2 in group 2. And of course, there's always 2 mafia goons, so there's 2 extra claims regardless of what setup we're actually in.
The placement of the extra claims might end up being important. Depending on the numbers, we can gain information on what the scum might have claimed. There is a chance we gain nothing of use, a chance we can confirm one of the groups contains at least one scum, and a smaller chance we can confirm one of the groups contains both scum. I'm not going to go through possible setups/outcomes/strategies unless I need to, scum can do the work themselves.
I'm not dead-set on doing this, it's just an idea.
I'll need do do some actual EV estimates before being sure this is a bad idea (which I don't have the time nor the willpower to do now) but I did scribble some caveman computation myself and:
doing this would drop the chances of the killing mafioso blowing up tonight from 1/4*4/14+1/2*3/14+1/4*2/14~0.214 to 0 (assuming the mafia not to shoot in group 2 for fear of bombs)
the added information would increase the chance of limming mafia today very slightly. Making no assumptions on the probabilities that mafia picks a claiming strategy over another, and making the assumption that my scribbles are correct,
if the claims don't even permit to determine that a group has at most 1 scum in it, we gain nothing.
if the claims determine that group 1 (the vigs) has at most 1 scum, the chances that any one member of group 2 is scum is 4/15;
if group 2 (ss & bombs) has at most 1 scum, the chances that any one member of group 1 is scum is also 4/15 (that it is the same number is weird; just a happy coincidence)
if group 1 has 2 scum, the chances grow to 2/7;
if group 2 has 2 scum, it's 1/3
now the last two cases are quite improbable; if each mafioso decides what to claim at random, this would give an expected increase of our chances to lim correctly today of (2/9*(3/8)+4/15*(1/2)+2/7*(1/16)+1/3*(1/16))-2/9 ~ 0.0331. Since the strategy of claiming at random is probably not optimal, we can't expect to do better than this on average and we would likely do significantly worse if the mafia plays optimally. Of course, that's an average, it's possible to do much better; but that would be conditional on the RNGod smiling upon us.
and the point is that 0.214 is much greater than 0.0331.
I don't know exactly what the increase in the utility of Vigilantes would be, but I can't imagine it being much higher than that. Based on this (very brutish) computation I'd say that doing this claiming plan would on average decrease the number of expected scum deaths between D1 and N1, which would be detrimental EV-wise. It does probably also decrease the expected number of Vigilantes blowing up tonight, idk if that would be enough of an offset, but it's also harder to say since Vigilantes may want to shoot in group 2 anyway if scum can be there
And the above post is just a showing of why we aren't doing this claim today, if you actually understand the mechanics of how this works, you should agree.
No one should explain this, just accept it.
Returning win rate: 4/1, 80%
In the process of creating a game to mod, we will see what it holds.
When i open this game, and starting read, i immediatly close it because i starting strongly consider self last townie alive and others are just jesters.
There's really not much of a defense I can make against 'you aren't as obvtown this time'. But the case against me is not a good one, that's just all there is to it. If I'm the lim today it might be worth thinking about whether scum sat on sidelines or actively participated.
In post 320, Merlyn wrote:
There's really not much of a defense I can make against 'you aren't as obvtown this time'. But the case against me is not a good one, that's just all there is to it. If I'm the lim today it might be worth thinking about whether scum sat on sidelines or actively participated.
Idk who this was targeted to but I don't think people are scumreading you because of meta. I think people are scumrssding you because of your reaction and how disingenuous you sound. I think those who are expierenced are having a hard time reading you because you are new and usually these disingenuous tells come from new town but are also very much viable from scum
I know I was harsh on you earlier, and I apologize for that. I will admit I did have confirmation bias, but I do still think you are the vote for today.
I am trying to figure out who your possible partner could be if you're scum.
