TM 2023 | Super Mario Bros Mafia | Game Over!

[Radical Rat]

I have received confirmation from Cakez that the Tanuki would NOT have allowed piercing my protection.

This makes me feel a lot better about HPE, and that puts us pretty close to auto-win.

VOTE: petapan

If peta's Town, flip Jingle tomorrow, and that should be the game.

[petapan]

I have received confirmation from Cakez that the Tanuki would NOT have allowed piercing my protection.

This makes me feel a lot better about HPE, and that puts us pretty close to auto-win.

VOTE: petapan

If peta's Town, flip Jingle tomorrow, and that should be the game.

i dunno in what world you think you have the clout to make declarative statements like that lmao

[petapan]

yeah i'm not gonna quote it because i don't want to edit the great wall of china but cerb's handling of HPE is just not scum/scum

And you think my handling of Cerb is?

i hadn't stated a conclusion on you yet actually


but...yeah, plausibly? i just did a quick check on a reread, tell me what you believe makes you unaligned with cerb?

It would have been completely unnecessary for scum!me to bus him yesterday. I could have very easily gone after Fate instead. He also spends the whole day sucking up to me instead of distancing from me.

i do not buy this for a second ftr (i missed it last night or woulda replied to it then)

cerb was a dead man walking who had already been brought to E-1 Day 1, and at a minimum we accept that several town players were pushing him. He was giving an effort (enough to fool a scrub like me), but his heart clearly wasn't in it

in that spot, we have a claimed town UB with a track that's going off that night which is effectively a cop check

any scum player that isn't completely green or dogmatically anti-bussing knows you throw your teammate under the bus there because otherwise you risk getting copped and losing the game. attempting to start a 1v1 with fate there has significant downside because i think more people would have sided with fate than you and cerb had very little hope of going the distance.

so, yeah, i think scum absolutely busses in that spot, this is easy to say fmpov but also it's just how games tend to work

[petapan]

Why do I hard bus Cerb instead of going after Fate? Why do I claim rolestopper at all instead of an impossible to verify (at the time) Doctor?

if you had claimed doctor with a bodyguard already claimed in the setup, i would have started screaming to instakill you because those roles do not exist together in a 10p. as it is rolestopper has a little more anti-synergy and you could have easily not anticipated fate having a PR


i'm, like, eh, because i make these sort of "why would i do this as scum" arguments all the time as town but nothing about your play is illogical or anti-wincon as scum

it's not impossible you are town making these arguments they just don't do a lot for me

[petapan]

i checked over jingle last night and while his progression on cerb is very easily one i could see coming from a partner (start off townreading him for questionable reasons, gradually shift to a scumread as his posting fell off and pressure mounted, unvote after the claim, bury him hard day 2), i'm really loathe to let go of my prior read that when i was yelling at him like an idiot he was just town with sincere convictions. every time i get in a shitfight like that with someone they end up being town.

i think recent experience has shown to me town players can have questionable associations with scum and you shouldn't use those as the primary basis of a read and overall social reads matter more

there's the paranoia in the back of my head that he's going after RR because i'm, like, way easier to beat in a 1v1 at f4 given my less than stellar play this game but rationally i'm more inclined to trust him, to the point of being more uncertain of

adorable

last night (I don't think she's...all that likely but mostly because the claim is believable)

[petapan]

Spoiler:

Well, the Fabled Wgeurts Readwall will likely get the discussion train rolling again, but in the meantime you could always try probing others yourself. Don't think CSF or RR have really posted anything like read lists yet? Would like to see that personally.

Jingle, wgeurts
Adorable, Fate
HPE
---Town Line---
Porkens
Cerb, peta
CSF

I'd be theoretically okay eliminating anyone below the Town line, though I am hesitant on Porkens since CSF is the one mainly pushing right now, in addition to the growing probability of replacement.

It's mostly because of the early wgeurts defense still. Since then you've looked plausibly town, but so far that's the only moment in this game I can point to as someone actively doing something scummy, whereas everyone else in my lim pool just hasn't been doing Townie things.

As for my team, honestly we haven't been discussing as thoroughly or frequently as we probably should be, but early on Klick said you were pinging him as well, and then Bella's recently said you look Town to her.

Did you catch my thoughts wrt CSF's push on cerb being probtown?

No, I didn't see that one, point me to it?

VOTE: Cerberus v666

I believe that's E-1.

It does really need to be Porkens here.

Cerb's claim is at least partly verifiable, wgeurts is off the table for me, and while I personally would be okay with CSF or peta, my team is very firmly not.

Porkens is the only scummy slot left, I'm not moving.

for reference, this is the only discussion RR had of Cerb Day 1, which i certainly wouldn't consider un-aligning in any world

i'm not gonna say it's inherently damning because you can get stuff like this happening incidentally but the lack of discussion around cerb is circumspect? it doesn't feel like there's attention being drawn there or attempts to solve him, just a very sudden E-1 vote

[Jingle]

@Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?

If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.

Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.

Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).

Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.

The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.

Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.

This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?

[Radical Rat]

I'm not dogmatically anti-bussing, but I am very much against unnecessary bussing, and I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there. ESPECIALLY not with multiple investigatives and a Bodyguard in play, where I would much rather take the fall myself than let the roleblocker die.

I think you're heavily overestimating just how much Cerb's fate was sealed, and I find it interesting how that's the same line of defense Cerb had for not using the BP shot.

[Jingle]

FWIW, the above plan works if we choose to lim me over peta as well, it's just an XLO of RR, Peta and HPE with one of RR/Peta conftown instead of me being the conftown.

[Radical Rat]

I'm not dogmatically anti-bussing, but I am very much against unnecessary bussing, and I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there. ESPECIALLY not with multiple investigatives and a Bodyguard in play, where I would much rather take the fall myself than let the roleblocker die.

I think you're heavily overestimating just how much Cerb's fate was sealed, and I find it interesting how that's the same line of defense Cerb had for not using the BP shot.

This was in response to peta

[HighPrincessErinys]

If peta's Town, flip Jingle tomorrow, and that should be the game.

This one can get down with this plan considering it's been suspicious of peta nearly ALL the damn game. Feel like you're also not entirely out of the water imho but my super-ultra Tracker immortality plan doesn't work without trusting you for a night or two, so this one declares a truce.
VOTE: petapan

p-edit: Jingle's idea doesn't sound half bad either.

[Jingle]

I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there.

Cerbs was dead the minute he claimed BP, JSYK. It was a scumclaim, pure and simple, and the only reason the day extended was because I wanted to see what spew would happen.

[Radical Rat]

@Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?

If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.

Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.

Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).

Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.

The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.

Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.

This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?

I agree with this. It seems to me like Cerb was the intended way for scum to bypass protection, and I cannot imagine there just also being a strongman, especially with the potential for a double kill from hitting Adorable's target.

[Adorable]

@Adorable
I know we did this with the Tanuki already, but would you mind asking Cakez if the mushroom can protect you from dying if your target is attacked?

The mushroom would protect me.

[Radical Rat]

Now THAT'S spicy

[Radical Rat]

Adorable doesn't need to holster in that case, which means wgeurts can be kept alive.

[Adorable]

Thoughts Time:

My first guess for scum here is peta. He was on Porkens, but off Cerb, I've been scumreading him off and on throughout the game, and judging by end of day, Fate would have agreed.

Jingle is a source of mild paranoia for me. In general, I'd trust him more than myself on mechanical matters, but when he's saying my role shouldn't exist, and I have my role... at the very least, he's wrong. I also think that if there was scum bussing peta, Jingle is the most likely to be that scum.

Adorable is probably just Town. We know she's Loved, and she was the swing vote for Cerb, probably could have turned it onto me instead if she'd wanted to.

HPE scares me a lot, because while I'm leaning Town presently, if it is scum we're kinda fucked. Was also on Porkens but off Cerb, was frankly bizarrely trusting of his claim, the kill makes the most sense in this world, and I'm not 100% convinced Daisy makes sense as a UB... but also willingly generating conftown is something scum usually avoids, and there were a couple angles that could have been taken to mislim me instead... but also doing things this way is safer and no one's going to want to lim it in MeLo... but I don't know if I'm willing to give up a potential cop shot going into ELo.

Wgeurts is IC now, because even if HPE is lying, they can't both be scum, but I was strongly townreading them anyway.


Conclusions: I don't fuckin' have any

I have paranoia on all of the players here except for wgeurts and these reads looks reasonable. Last day you should have claimed 2 shot rolestopper instead of claiming it on day 3 because now there has been doubts on the claim.

[HighPrincessErinys]

Last day you should have claimed 2 shot rolestopper instead of claiming it on day 3 because now there has been doubts on the claim.

This one has had it's doubts about the claim regardless, to be frank.

[petapan]

okay, so i asked a question about how today's powerup would interact with a town bodyguard, and if a BG is protected by it, and someone tries to kill the BG's target, the BG would be prevented from dying. that lets us doc 2 slots instead of just 1

feel free to confirm this yourself


even night tracker in a 10 player game is a bit of a mean trick, it seems like it'd be useful twice, except

if we go to 4p the mafia just have no incentive to kill even if we vote no elim, we're not getting useful results from a tracker ever again

yell at me for saying this if you want but there's 0 chance a team of 4 people wouldn't be able to figure that out

so the only thing that can be done night action wise is to gamble on a possible save giving us an extra ML

[Radical Rat]

So you were brainstorming with your team on how to escape autoloss, eh?

[petapan]

So you were brainstorming with your team on how to escape autoloss, eh?

no?

what the fuck purpose does a post like this serve, why are you talking shit at me? what does this accomplish?

if you're absolutely convinced that action is somehow scum motivated, lay out a case as to why to sell it to other people, don't snipe

if you're actually trying to figure out my alignment then ask me questions

i do not care at all if i am voted out today and accepted that as a likely reality the moment i was not cleared by the tracker

[Radical Rat]

I just found the way you framed your point amusing is all.

You are right, holstering would be the correct move for scum to make in that situation, but there's also no inherent risk for Town in that case since it'll just be the same day again, so like. Even if the chance they don't figure it out in time is small, why point it out?

It's not like it's mutually exclusive with using the protective roles

[petapan]

@Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?

If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.

Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.

Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).

Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.

The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.

Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.

This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?

i had this thought as well ftr but i think scum radical rat probably just kills the protection target and goes "oh i guess mafia do have a strongman" etc so i wouldn't count on it at all

[petapan]

I just found the way you framed your point amusing is all.

You are right, holstering would be the correct move for scum to make in that situation, but there's also no inherent risk for Town in that case since it'll just be the same day again, so like. Even if the chance they don't figure it out in time is small, why point it out?

It's not like it's mutually exclusive with using the protective roles

i have too much respect for every player in the game/their teammates to even begin to pretend that wasn't an idea scum would have thought of

like, what are you even saying here, i am scum who is dying today but also i will dump my plan to avoid autoloss to the whole thread? makes no sense

[Radical Rat]

I mean, you do still have to pretend to care. And seeing as you've already started taking the angle of "all these plans are stupid and won't work, so kill Rat instead of me..."

Yes, I think you're scum trying to derail Town coordination.