TM 2023 | Super Mario Bros Mafia | Game Over!

[wgeurts]

Okay the Fate interaction with the Porkens wagon does not strike me as Scum white-knighting at all

[Jingle]

Hmm. I don't think the E-1 on cerb is all that compelling given thread sentiment was already very anti cerb. I do think there's something odd going on if RR/cerb but more to the direction of the soft guilty and RR/Fate playing out with cerb being the other scum. If cerb is scum does RR really throw soft evidence on that pile in a way that doesn't really make them look much townier?

[wgeurts]

Okay HPE + RR is off the table that makes no sense with the claims

[wgeurts]

Which means HPE is probably town and that makes me sad

[wgeurts]

Okay I am fully up to date now.

We are wagoning cerb today, and will keep doing so unless he convinces me why we should be voting someone else. I don't care about him speaking why we shouldn't be voting him to be frank.

I think the chance of RR being town and I'm fucking up elsewhere is significant enough that I'm not comfortable going for it.

Adorable is conf town in my eyes for now
Jingle and Peta are probably town
Fate may as well be probably town

This leaves me with HPE/RR/Cerb

There's too many things at play and I'm not yet confident enough in my judgement of the game to point out a pair, there's also room for error in my town reads. But one of those three has to flip red otherwise I'd be willing to just surrender this game as is.

[wgeurts]

VOTE: Cerb

[wgeurts]

Hmm. I don't think the E-1 on cerb is all that compelling given thread sentiment was already very anti cerb. I do think there's something odd going on if RR/cerb but more to the direction of the soft guilty and RR/Fate playing out with cerb being the other scum. If cerb is scum does RR really throw soft evidence on that pile in a way that doesn't really make them look much townier?

I'll reread it again tomorrow, I'm tired having just spent hours catching up again

[Radical Rat]

Speaking of E-1 on Cerb

[Radical Rat]

I do think Cerb should be allowed to at least speak before anyone hammers. I don't see my mind being changed, but no need to rush at this point.

wgeurts catch up looks very Townie, probably about where I'd be landing if I weren't me

[Jingle]

UNVOTE:

To allow cerb to discuss. I am potentially wrong, after all.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 2.3

Cerberus v666 (3) - Fate, Radical Rat, wgeurts
Radical Rat (1) - HighPrincessErinys

Not voting (4) - Petapan, Adorable, Cerberus v666, Jingle

(expired on 2023-05-08 13:31:00) remain until day end

Fate is V/LA through Sunday April 30.

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 to reach a majority.

[petapan]

at the risk of being called unoriginal, i largely agree with what jingle has said

fmpov i don't think jingle and wgeurts are ever aligned which means finding scum in the PR claims should take priority

i feel comfortable with treating this like quasi role-madness, and in role madness setups often scum are going to have roles that are NAI which they can trueclaim.

that being said i think adorable's claim is very likely to be real

mechanically i think it's fairly unlikely all of bg/watcher/rolestopper exist in the setup and are town aligned, and of those the one most likely to be fake would be RR

[petapan]

i'm going to withhold judgment on cerb until he actually posts the content he's promising

i dunno game feels like a puzzle still

[petapan]

powers for cerb in a vacuum are more useful for scum than town

however analyzing games that way is very likely to result in a lot of losses because mods will give scummy sounding roles to town so i'm unconvinced

by that particular reason

- i was stuck with a role in hollow knight where the abilities were all near useless for town but would have had incredible pro-scum utility. i was still town, and i got heat because all i could do was trueclaim my role.

it could be that cerb is scum who stepped on a rake and had no ideas so he just claimed his role without changing things but i wouldn't be sure it's the only possibility yet

i still need to give people a proper reread when i have time

[Jingle]

powers for cerb in a vacuum are more useful for scum than town

however analyzing games that way is very likely to result in a lot of losses because mods will give scummy sounding roles to town so i'm unconvinced

by that particular reason

- i was stuck with a role in hollow knight where the abilities were all near useless for town but would have had incredible pro-scum utility. i was still town, and i got heat because all i could do was trueclaim my role.

it could be that cerb is scum who stepped on a rake and had no ideas so he just claimed his role without changing things but i wouldn't be sure it's the only possibility yet

i still need to give people a proper reread when i have time

I agree that cerb having a vanilla cop as town isn’t impossible. It could be designed to soft clear vts due to the rather large probability of double scum prs.

My suspicion is far more fueled by how he used or claimed to use it than that he claimed VC.

[Radical Rat]

Sure seems like it's a bit later than 7 MST, and no sign of Cerberus

[HighPrincessErinys]

Happy Birthday wgeurts!

[Fate]

UNVOTE:

To allow cerb to discuss. I am potentially wrong, after all.

NOTHING TO WAIT FOR HERE DONT LET DOUBT CLOUD YOUR MIND


only thing I havent seen anyone do is ISO Cat Scratch FOR READS AND PONDER WHY THEY WERE NKd

do i have to carry this whole goddamn town

[wgeurts]

UNVOTE:

To allow cerb to discuss. I am potentially wrong, after all.

NOTHING TO WAIT FOR HERE DONT LET DOUBT CLOUD YOUR MIND


only thing I havent seen anyone do is ISO Cat Scratch FOR READS AND PONDER WHY THEY WERE NKd

do i have to carry this whole goddamn town

They were quite evidently town and also gave away that they were a PR if scum knew about Toad flavour

[Cerberus v666]

I'm here and only 14 hours late!

So this is what I'm going to be doing - I went through Adorable's and RR's ISO's through end of D1, I'll do the same for everyone else, and then I'll be reading/re-reading D2 and get to the mech stuff.

Adorable's D1:

40 null all
47 wgeurts, jingle, cerb, peta interact=null
48 asked peta why they thought a jingle post was scummy
66 waffle jingle
225 dislikes fates naked HPE vote, dislikes Cerbs questions/sees them as useless, HPE is null/town lhf
283 votes fate
322 jingle town because of vibes and mech talk and reevaluation
427 lost in the game
527 read walls about peta nad hpe, their actions look nai
529 asks wgeurts about HPE scum partner
536 jingle/wgeurts town lean, cerb scum(omgus)
581 /615 cerb vote because he said shady stuff, okay with cerb and porkens wagons
619 dislikes meta read on porkens
694 - GIF(teammate) TR's CSF, Fate, and Porkens, Adorable TR CSF, null Fate and Pork
703 /721 OMGUS on porkens
728 accuses fate of making things up
761 questions why cerb as mario wouldn't be town
766 unvotes cerb
767 votes porkens
958 fate scum due to porkens defense
991 porkens looks scummy, thinks fate might have TMI
993 asks for jingles case
1006 floats Porkens/Fate team
1048 noted fate contradicting themselves by going after lhf after saying scum aren't there
1050 asks peta to respond to her jingle read from 322

Adorable's ISO and play this game is, from my perspective, characterized by omgus - at least for all of D1. Anyone who floats her as scum or describes any of her actions as scummy is immediately painted as scummy and placed under closer scrutiny by her - and she does this to everyone. I generally find this sort of behavior to be innately scummy, as having no case for anything other than people suspecting you makes it pretty easy to both fail to truly commit to anything, and this also generates your content for yourself. The inconsistency I mentioned earlier comes from her play around Fate's slot - namely, she mentions various concerns about fate, but doesn't really press him on them, and simultaneously thinks that fate is WK'ing Porkens and is scum with TMI, but also thinks porkens is scum, and then also floats a Porkens/Fate scum team. With no regard given to the contradictions inherent in that entire line of reasoning. This is actually the towniest part of her ISO imo, given the type of player I'm seeing presented here. Generally, only town are so completely oblivious to not making fucking sense. Also of note is the complete absence of RR and Peta in her reads and interactions(that she initiates at least) in D1. In an Adorable scum universe, I would expect one of RR/Peta to be the teammate.

With that said, the omgus'ing thing can be bad town, and bad town also do completely oblivious things like contradict themselves. More likely town than not, but some of her actions do hold scum potential.

Adorable: Can you please elaborate on your position on both RR and Peta, and let me know how you got to wherever you are with them? Also, where are you with regards to fate now? Did the Porkens flip make you more or less suspicious of Fate?

pedit: Fate, I skimmed their ISO, and I guess I'll include that slot in this set of analysis, at least to make sure I'm not missing any important reads. Strongest scum read expressed were on you, Fate, and Porkens. Had Adorable, Peta, RR, HPE, and wgeurts as null-townish, and had Jingle and myself as null.

[wgeurts]

They though, me, Adorable, HPE, RR and Peta were town iirc

They didn't like Cerb and Porkens

[Radical Rat]

Cerb, while you're here I'd like you to talk about your check a bit.

You said before that you assumed Adorable would only softclaim as Town if she were pulling an NK bait gambit, and that's why you checked her.

Has the knowledge of her being loved changed this thinking for you?

[Jingle]

@Cerbs

: As outed JOAT, why didn't you use BP?

[Radical Rat]

@Cerbs

: As outed JOAT, why didn't you use BP?

Shhh, I was getting to that

[Cerberus v666]

Cerb, while you're here I'd like you to talk about your check a bit.

You said before that you assumed Adorable would only softclaim as Town if she were pulling an NK bait gambit, and that's why you checked her.

Has the knowledge of her being loved changed this thinking for you?

Oh hey the person who I'm actually writing up things on right now!

The powers of being loved are twofold. One, you are publicly verifiable - which may or may not give the game a mechanical reason to clear you, regardless of your true alignment. Two, you can foil quickhammers and use the role to fake twilight posting, which might be enough to get votes on to scum and save a game(particular in setups where scum have the potential to quickhammer+double NK into a win and basically openly claim with their hammer).

I don't think either of those benefits are particularly relevant to claiming the double vote. I can get wanting the double vote, particularly as scum!adorable, as it effectively negates the loved modifier - but I don't think that's a good enough reason for town!adorable to soft their role.

Actually, the entire play around the powerup is kind of confusing to me. There's a concerned effort, in the form of softing mech needs, to get the powerup, but there isn't actual/active campaigning. People don't put a number of votes towards that for her, and she just doesn't push it. As either alignment, I really don't know what a loved (x) Adorable is really trying to accomplish with their behavior there.

Hmm. Actually, an argument could be made that a bodyguard adorable is equally happy being shot directly, or redirecting a shot, so I suppose the PR soft is...more reasonable of an action for an actual PR to take than I was giving her credit for yesterday/last night.

While I'm finishing up the analysis on you, RR, who do I ISO next? I was planning on just going through shortest ISO's first so I can get as many slots done as possible in case something comes up today, but if there are priorities people want to see I can do that instead.

pedit: Because I have a very strong grasp of the game state, knew that there was a high likelihood that I would be on the chopping block today, and expected any reasonable scum to also see that. I also expected that if I weathered attempts at eliminating me today, despite claiming an investigative action that was more likely to come from scum than town in a void, it would be because I had actually played the game the way I do and town'd up so much that I would be at risk of being shot at tonight - so the BP was reserved for that.

back to RR writeup, but I'll be refreshing my other window every few minutes and trying to respond to things.