Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[Alianna]

1.04

Votecount 1.04

usesPython (2): Oclaxian Empire, The Bulge
IceDragon70 (2): biancospino, usesPython
Malakittens (2): Black, IceDragon70
furtiveglance (1): Aureal
Aureal (1): Doctor Drew
Black (1): Kokichi Oma
The Bulge (1): furtiveglance

Not Voting (3): osuka, Malakittens, HighPrincessErinys

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-04-20 18:48:28).

[Aureal]

I think it's the other way around, Oclax is voting Python for main-account hunting whereas Bulge is voting Python for perceived poor use of meta. And furtiveglance voted Bulge for the "unexplained" vote but I think Bulge had already given explanation in previous posts. So yes I do see it all as kind of linked, though probably not in a "furtive is scum voting Bulge because he's partnered with Python" way if that's what you think I'm saying. And I'm not sure what you mean by middle ring?

[Oclaxian Empire]

I mean yeah. There’s no reason to hunt for someone’s main because if they’re playing on an alt, (unless it’s blatantly a gimmick alt like a couple of my alts, like Totally Not Korina), odds are they are trying to play differently than usual.

I just do not like the concept of “this player is using an alt; I’m going to read them like they’re playing on main” UNLESS ITS A GIMMICK ACCOUNT. I don’t think DE is playing this account for gimmicks, therefore, in my eyes, trying to metaread/push someone based off their main is scummy.

Town does not need that to kill someone in my eyes - only scum do. Town can find a genuine reason someone is scum and kill them. Scum cannot find a truly genuine reason, because the town player is not scum, and in most cases, scum know they’re not scum!

[Oclaxian Empire]

This game is obviously different but I still think the core principle of “town don’t need a reason like that to scumread/wagon someone” still applies in multiball, but with multiball it could legit just be scum trying to kill suspected scum

[usesPython]

I mean yeah. There’s no reason to hunt for someone’s main because if they’re playing on an alt, (unless it’s blatantly a gimmick alt like a couple of my alts, like Totally Not Korina), odds are they are trying to play differently than usual.

I just do not like the concept of “this player is using an alt; I’m going to read them like they’re playing on main” UNLESS ITS A GIMMICK ACCOUNT. I don’t think DE is playing this account for gimmicks, therefore, in my eyes, trying to metaread/push someone based off their main is scummy.

Town does not need that to kill someone in my eyes - only scum do. Town can find a genuine reason someone is scum and kill them. Scum cannot find a truly genuine reason, because the town player is not scum, and in most cases, scum know they’re not scum!

You don't think IceDragon signing up for fire and

ice

mafia and then claiming ice mafia in the first post is part a gimmick?

[Oclaxian Empire]

I think that is the whole gimmick we can expect from the account but I don’t think that’s the sole reason DE would sign up for a game under a gimmick account.

[Oclaxian Empire]

I think DE is the type of person to do that for a joke and seriously play differently after that point.

[usesPython]

Like I'll absolutely meta Dragon for diverging from my mental model of him because the divergence happened at the skill level and not the playstyle level

-A

[Oclaxian Empire]

And we’re just gonna ignore your meta read LOL.

[usesPython]

Cool, didn't ask

-A

[Aureal]

I think there's some level of gimmick involved.

And that's why I'm a little wary of Dragon. The vote thing actually feels like awkward RVS stuff which I guess he's known for, but combined with the Ice Mafia opening post, it feels worse. Because if my account was named icedragon and I rolled ice here, I'd find it absolutely hilarious to just come out and say so.

[Black]

I'm not seeing a gimmick? I mean beyond using his Ice account for the Ice Mafia game but is that even really a gimmick?

[Black]

I don't really think python "main hunting" is AI though

[Aureal]

Well yes, he said he was using the ice account for the game with ice. It's related!

I'm a little wary of Python's vote too since I kind of expected like a page of setup spec from them more than hopping on a wagon. But I totally expect meta research like this. I'm just surprised they waited until now to do it, I already knew the accounts were linked from those posts (as if it wasn't obvious from the name).

[usesPython]

Well yes, he said he was using the ice account for the game with ice. It's related!

I'm a little wary of Python's vote too since I kind of expected like a page of setup spec from them more than hopping on a wagon. But I totally expect meta research like this. I'm just surprised they waited until now to do it, I already knew the accounts were linked from those posts (as if it wasn't obvious from the name).

Mega mech-posting is more Nameless's style, and all the mech theorycrafting favors scum over town in this setup anyways

-A

[Aureal]

I disagree. I was thinking how hard it would be to win with four Mafia but then I came up with a cool mech plan to win the game.

First, we vote out a Mafia.
Then, the Fire and Ice Mafia shoot a member of the other team.
Then we vote out the last Mafia.

See? We

could

actually win in just a couple of rounds!

[usesPython]

Oh no you got Nameless to mech post

-A

It's actually optimal to lim every day. Since scum targetting the same person stops the nightkill that leaves a

G

/(

T

+

G

) chance of shooting the other groupscum, and a 1/(

T

² + 2

T

) chance of both targetting the same townie if a townie is getting shot

The chance of limming scum is

S

/(P - 1)

Plugging in the numbers that means that for now a lim gives an expected result of 8/12 chance of limming town whereas the chance of scum nightkilling town (Ignoring any doctor plays) is 9/11 - 1/99 = 80/99

Spoiler: What the letters mean

P - number of players alive

T

- number of town alive

S

- number of scum alive

G

- number of enemy groupscum alive

-Nameless

[HighPrincessErinys]

This one understood... Mostly none of that, unfortunately

[Doctor Drew]

Oh God, we are in the intense mech speak portion of the game?

Someone bring back rvs.

[HighPrincessErinys]

This one thinks it trusts Python, and of course it's got a scumread on Ice for his vote on Mala, but otherwise it's... rather lacking in reads honestly. Need to give this game a look over sometime and try to come up with SOMETHING.

[Black]

Great Aureal look what you did

[Black]

This one thinks it trusts Python, and of course it's got a scumread on Ice for his vote on Mala, but otherwise it's... rather lacking in reads honestly. Need to give this game a look over sometime and try to come up with SOMETHING.

Why does it seem like you're afraid to vote?

[HighPrincessErinys]

This one thinks it trusts Python, and of course it's got a scumread on Ice for his vote on Mala, but otherwise it's... rather lacking in reads honestly. Need to give this game a look over sometime and try to come up with SOMETHING.

Why does it seem like you're afraid to vote?

Because that's what you're interpreting me as feeling.
But also because 1) Python is a townread and 2) IceDragon is a scumread, yes, but for something that's very inconclusive on it's own. He hasn't given us much else which, to be fair to you, is probably worth an eyebrow raising too, but... either way, not in a hurry to get a lim when we still have alot of discussion time available.

[Aureal]

Oh lord I asked for that, didn't I?

I just wanted people to have hope that scum would shoot each other.

[Black]

Don't get me wrong...I'm not in a hurry to lim either. I just don't see the benefit of not using your vote in a situation where you SR someone and have the opportunity to use it as pressure