Hollow Knight Mafia [game over]

[Gimli]

if furtive is scum then he has no reason not to push for no elim again and then kill fireisred and then win with me

oh jee it works with everybody

[Klick]

let me put this in a way you understand: if I'm scum then it makes so much more sense for me to push for no elim again and then kill fireisred and then take you to f3 with furtive. which is what you're using to defend yourself from accusations of being scum, that you'd push no elim and kill furtive. do you see how your defense is hot air?

if furtive is scum then he has no reason not to push for no elim again and then kill fireisred and then win with me

oh jee it works with everybody

The key difference being, again, the part you've chosen not to consider

The key piece of information you are not considering when you call this WIFOM is

Assuming I am scum and furtive is town

I am aware enough of how furtive plays to know that that kind of WIFOM would ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT ACTUALLY BE EFFECTIVE.

[Gimli]

it shouldn't work with anyone man, I'm telling you how your argument is a glove that fits in everyone's hands

[Klick]

And I'm telling you it's not and giving you evidence for that claim

What is your response to that evidence?

Specifically, I'm talking about the quoted part of 6338

[Klick]

This part here, specifically

The key piece of information you are not considering when you call this WIFOM is

Assuming I am scum and furtive is town

I am aware enough of how furtive plays to know that that kind of WIFOM would ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT ACTUALLY BE EFFECTIVE.

[Gimli]

[Gimli]

I either already responded in many different manners or I have no idea what you're talking about

[fireisredsir]

I think klick can throw a good sounding twist to any position he takes in the game, even when they're contradictory or nonsensical. the daystart message and follow up posting is an example of how something that only makes sense from a scum standpoint can be reasoned out to the point where at least one player thinks klick is even more likely to be a townie just for doing it. and it's something I can't get it through, at least not with fireisred, that it makes no sense for that message to be playing around furtive's scumread as a townie, and not just scum taking a neutral position and then making any bs reasoning when that doesnt play out like he wanted to.

granted I might not be making much sense myself, my push might look weak and the evidence I'm presenting about furtive makes it odd that I'm not pushing him instead. that's fine, and I'm not against the possibility that it's actually furtive and I'm stuck in a tunnel and losing the game regardless because of it. but also I'm done reading the game, which means I'm unlikely to change my position on a whim. I owe it to myself after dedicating so much time to it that if I'm not doing a proper read, I'll just go with what I decided was best.

gimli the reason it isn't convincing to me is that i have literally played elo with a similar mindset before as town

i don't think that only scum can take into account how others are reading people and how to play around that in order to win. elo is a unique situation and it isn't always optimal for town to play with full transparency or honesty 100% of the time

i also just kind of think you're jumping from "i don't understand why klick would to this as town" to "it must make more sense as scum". i don't really think it's good scum play at all. and i think klick would have to have had a very good scum game besides that, so it's not a lack of capability

[fireisredsir]

I think Gimli!scum is far more likely to outright refuse to consider this perspective than Gimli!town because Gimli!scum only needs to get to ELo with myself and furtive.

I'd like your opinion on the above reasoning fire

mmm maybe

i think you could argue for anybody that continuing the stalemate is fine/good bc then they can just kill whoever they don't like and get a favorable 3p. but i think that scum could take other paths

i think you have different opinions on what gimli would/could play like both as town and as scum than i do and not knowing where those are coming from is actually one of my bigger hesitations with you

cause the whole line of "i have a lot of respect for gimli's abilities" and talking about how much you like the way he solves or whatever felt kind of out of place and pockety at the time but then that high level of respect seems like it's also being used to keep considering him as scum at a point where i think he's miles out of range, and also doing things that i would expect him to do as town

it has felt at times to me like stretching things a bit past the point of reasonableness. but if you're town then clearly we have different thoughts on gimli and maybe one of us is wrong

maybe you can explain what experiences you had with gimli that led you to feel the way you do?

[fireisredsir]

Gimli, why do you TR me?

Fire, I might want you to tie this.

Belay that, I want you to hammer

what was your thought process that led you to make each of these posts

expand please

[furtiveglance]

Whether or not Gimli was scum

[fireisredsir]

i will just vote you if you don't want to play the game

[furtiveglance]

Pretty sure this is town Gimli

[fireisredsir]

why

[fireisredsir]

and what made you think it wasn't earlier

[furtiveglance]

I was just worried

But Klick 2 scummy

I don't think Gimli would randomly pull up the kill choices which incriminate Klick in that way as scum, it looked 2 natural

[fireisredsir]

I was just worried

But Klick 2 scummy

I don't think Gimli would randomly pull up the kill choices which incriminate Klick in that way as scum, it looked 2 natural

quote the posts that you're referring to?

[furtiveglance]

Spoiler: When it Klicked for Gimli

I think its klick with a traitor role

MT can u go over everything that happened in hood with u and rest of dead townies?
I feel like there could be something there.

Absolutely.

Grimme Troupe (Black + Peta)

Black knew he was going to die. He said well-played to me if scum, but also said I should have been replaced so im a little confused what exactly he was saying about me.

Peta said that smart cash money $$$ is on Klick, he thinks.

Black questioned whether Klick was trying to find scum -- pointing out for instance that Klick votes for wagons even if he thinks they're town (Alisae for instance). He concluded off with saying that he thinks it's either FB or Klick, but expressed dissatisfaction with himself

I agreed with Black regarding the Alisae point (I thought E was obvtown immediately after the cakez flip, so much so i healed em) but I dont think he could tell what i was saying lol.

Petapan says that he's been turned off to the game for a while (mood) but thinks from gameplay and role perspective, klick made the most sense

Black said that he didn't understand why scum isn't killing Firebringer.

-----

My lingering questions:

The Firefluffer problem

Why isn't scum killing Firebringer? I understand that he hides behind people and clears them somehow -- so... why no kill that. The obvious answer to that would be "He's hiding".

i can hide behind someone to prevent my death. if they die that night i die.
alternatively if i hide behind someone who is performing a kill, i will die instead of their target.

Ah. That's a supremely good role, isn't it? Now that you've claimed that last bit and turned it into an investigative

But in order to do that, you have to announce your targets. So why hasn't scum shot one of those targets and killed Fire? Black's last thoughts and my own at this point.

Even if the target is nullish/scummy, it's more than worth it to shoot Firewoofer too. From what i can tell after he claimed, he said he'd hide behind either FireR or redFF.

Fire's role isn't gated like everyone else's. And it's so good. Get rid of him. Why aren't they?

It was a 50/50 shot, so scum couldn't kill him for sure, they had to guess between FireR/redFF (he didnt indicate which he was picking). So that could be why. Would be disastrous to miss that. That's probably why Fire's alive as town.

,,,,,,,,

Petapan's final remaining suspicion

Petapan said that role-wise and gameplay-wise Klick made the most sense to him. He didn't elaborate much on that but it is interesting to me he would say tgameplay and role -- what is Klicks role

Scum already know my role and I'm gonna get hero shot by furtive tonight so I'll jump the queue

Each night I can choose to write an anonymous message for the mod to post at day start
N1 I deliberately chose not to do this because I had nothing to say - I was hoping Cakez would be an investigative and I could out his results anonymously
N2 I just fell asleep before writing a message (evidence: it's 3:45am right now)

Bruh

So it's a reporter and functionally not very helpful. What were the other scum?

Cakez - nonconsecutive commuter
TSQ - 4-shot flavour/role cop
ActionDan - 3-shot combined roleblocker/rolestopper

Yeah i could see it. Klick could also have other power not claimed. Sure.

But what about gameplay-wise?

Spoiler: Klick on Cakez

TOWN
furtiveglance
Morning Tweet
Black
SirCakez
Alisae

LEANING TOWN
Firebringer
VP Baltar
Gimli

NULL
Mistyx
Asri Teroka
Aristeia
redFF
Taly

LEANING SCUM
petapan
Lycanfire
Cat Scratch Fever

SCUM

TOWN
Morning Tweet
Black
Asri Teroka
Alisae
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
furtiveglance
SirCakez
redFF
VP Baltar
Cat Scratch Fever

NULL
Gimli
Mistyx
Aristeia
Taly

LEANING SCUM
petapan
Lycanfire

SCUM

I'd really like him to explain why he's townreading Cakez though.

I've had thoughts on this since last night but I went to sleep instead of responding.

Basically, I think my Cakez townread was poor. Early in Cakez's posting I thought his forwardness and willingness to bring a lot of opinions to the table was towny. I think this was biased somewhat by comparing him to Lycanfire in my head and thinking, 'well Cakez is being pretty free with his reads and Lycan isn't doing anything so if there's a scum between them it's more likely to be Lycan.' Which isn't a well-thought-out point.
In my last reads list I brought Cakez down a bit because I kinda realised this but still wanted to give credit to my initial gut ping.

I think ultimately I townread what you are scumreading. I ISO'd Cakez late last night and felt pretty similarly to you, that what he was doing could pretty easily be scum projecting false confidence. I don't feel strongly about it but with you saying it's his scum meta I kinda want to sheep you on it.

VOTE: SirCakez

TOWN
Morning Tweet
Black
Asri Teroka
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
Cat Scratch Fever
Aristeia
furtiveglance
Alisae
VP Baltar

NULL
redFF
Gimli
Mistyx
Taly

LEANING SCUM
petapan
{Lycanfire, SirCakez}

SCUM

Considered thoughts are closer to here
The whole list is ordered
At this point petapan being leaning scum is kind of a meme but I like it anyway

I'm going to make a reads list completely from scratch based on my very removed impressions of everyone right now

TOWN
Aristeia
Black
furtiveglance
Asri Teroka
Thestatusquo
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
fireisredsir
Cat Scratch Fever
SirCakez
Morning Tweet

NULL
Alisae
petapan
redFF

LEANING SCUM
Gimli
Mistyx
ActionDan

Klick has Cakez town early, reconsiders at the behest of Ari questioning the TR, has him in scum for a while, then he shifts back to being a townread but i dont see a discernible reason why anywhere

Cakez stays as town for Klick a long while (i wont bother quoting the many posts where Cakez is around the 4th or 5th most highest TR for Klick) all the way up until the guilty. Klick tried to get Cakez to claim his role privately to him, which he did, and Klick believed it and defended cakez (until he got guiltied a little later)

Klick also has TSQ as high town during D1 before any deaths (2150, 2207) -- but as soon as TSQ gets guiltied, Klick says:

oh also i have another guilty - tsq visited csf

Makes me feel good about where my reads list was up to last night

Spoiler: reads

100% TOWN
petapan
Aristeia
furtiveglance

OBVIOUS TOWN
Alisae
Cat Scratch Fever
Black

VERY LIKELY TOWN
Asri Teroka
Gimli
Firebringer

LEANING TOWN
redFF
Mistyx
fireisredsir

POE SCUMMY
Morning Tweet
Thestatusquo

Klick apparently TSQ as town but then started suspecting him the night before the morning of the guilty happened. Which is a little convenient, Klick's might be trying to get away with keeping Cakez and TSQ as high as possible until they can't anymore. Maybe because ActionDan got limmed so early in part thanks to Klick

I mean, I'm grasping a little bit here because my own interactiojns with TSQ and Cakez are YIKES because i recall townreading them both (Cakez primarily). But still seems very noteworthy.

Especially considering there is NOTHING role-wise that clears klick, and it *seeeems* to me based on about an hour skim that Klick didn't cause the thread to go in TSQ or Cakez directions, only ActionDans

I see what peta was trying to get at when he said role-wise and gameplay-wise he couldnt rule out Klick. So far I'm with him.

Firebringer - See: firefluffer problem
Aristeia - guiltied multiple scum
fireisredsir - INNOed by Firebringer
Gimli - Obviously suggested killing himself and me but also he just kinda seems towny. Also the giving guns ability, didn't need to give it to Ari and suggest shooting him with it,
furtiveglance - I actually forgot about furtive. Sorry. He's a Lazy Jailkeeper. I see he shot Misty. I skimmed and couldn't find the precise reason why it's not him. I assume it's night action based
Klick -
Morning Tweet - not in a PT with living players

My role for anyone that cares

I'm Hornet. I think it's like a tsundere type deal where i attack but also, i

protect

. I dig it.

I think it's Klick, but barring that, it's technically possible for it to be Gimli. And everyone is taking furtive as town for granted, I assume he did a jailkeep that was pivotal and i just cant bother to find it RN. I believe Firewoof/Aristeia/fireisred can safely be ignored.

peta and black were solving it as being just klick and then peta died and ari shot black

those conversations never had the relevant impact ITT, that's why klick is still here

VOTE: klick

I thought a lot about this game and this is where I'm at and sorry if I'm wrong

I think this stuff is town

[fireisredsir]

what about that seems natural or difficult to fake when it was something that he had prepared overnight (pretty clearly, as either alignment. those were his first posts of the day)

[furtiveglance]

It could be fake

I just don't think it is

I think Klick's reactive vote and then him saying he thought it was Gimli all along looked sus

[Klick]

I wrote this to Gimli a few hours ago but lost WiFi
I haven't read new stuff yet. Having a nap, will read it later.

Right, let's break this up more fundamentally

[6349]

Could you push for no elim, kill fire, and then go ELo with me and furtive? Yeah.
Is that Gimli!scum's only realistic method of winning? No, you have a few options. Gimli!scum is generally fine in the current gamestate and has been for a while.

[6350]

Could furtive!scum push for another no elim, kill fire, and then go ELo with me and Gimli? Yeah.
Is that furtive!scum's only realistic method of winning? No, furtive has a few options. furtive!scum is generally fine in the current gamestate and has been for a while.

Now, could Klick!scum push for no elim, kill furtive, and then go to ELo with you and fire? Yeah.
Is that Klick!scum's only realistic method of winning? YES. Because if I'm scum, furtive is town, and he's been consistently stating a scumread on me, and I know how he plays and am aware that he won't realistically change his mind against the evidence of this argument. This argument has potential to have impact on you, on fire, or on myself, but it is completely unreasonable for Klick!scum to stake his game plan on this argument swaying furtive, because it's not an argument that furtive would be convinced by.

[furtiveglance]

Why is not a decent plan for scum!Klick to pocket fire and then kill me if we no lim?

[Gimli]

YES. Because if I'm scum, furtive is town, and he's been consistently stating a scumread on me, and I know how he plays and am aware that he won't realistically change his mind against the evidence of this argument.

I think it's interesting how much you're painting furtive as some kind of death tunneler who never changes his mind. the only times I saw furtive having a strong neverchanging opinion on someone, it was twice against me and I was scum and he was right both times. maybe your experience with him differs though so, okay.

speaking of which, if I'm scum I'd never keep furtive alive cause he knows me better than the rest of the playerlist, caught me real hard twice already and I'd be scared of playing it out with him around. if I'm scum I just take aristeia with me to d8. hell if I'm scum I keep peta around and kill furtive in n5. have you considered that these NAs make little sense for me to make as scum?

[Gimli]

btw what are the rules for this? if it goes like 2-1-1, or 2-2, does it actually no lim and we have to play day 10?

[Klick]

I think Gimli!scum is far more likely to outright refuse to consider this perspective than Gimli!town because Gimli!scum only needs to get to ELo with myself and furtive.

I'd like your opinion on the above reasoning fire

mmm maybe

i think you could argue for anybody that continuing the stalemate is fine/good bc then they can just kill whoever they don't like and get a favorable 3p. but i think that scum could take other paths

i think you have different opinions on what gimli would/could play like both as town and as scum than i do and not knowing where those are coming from is actually one of my bigger hesitations with you

cause the whole line of "i have a lot of respect for gimli's abilities" and talking about how much you like the way he solves or whatever felt kind of out of place and pockety at the time but then that high level of respect seems like it's also being used to keep considering him as scum at a point where i think he's miles out of range, and also doing things that i would expect him to do as town

it has felt at times to me like stretching things a bit past the point of reasonableness. but if you're town then clearly we have different thoughts on gimli and maybe one of us is wrong

maybe you can explain what experiences you had with gimli that led you to feel the way you do?

So starting point: I know that I have a lot of respect for Gimli's play as town. That largely comes from this game, where Gimli replaced in and consistently gave correct takes and argued them effectively. His townread on me was right for the right reasons, as were several of his other reads. He demonstrated really strong levels of critical thinking and using it effectively. (Notably, that game started after this one did - these are thoughts that have developed about Gimli as this game has run its course.)

The thing is, I agree with you that Gimli's current play more closely matches what I've seen from Gimli's town meta than from his scum meta, on a surface level. It's been a while since I did the meta dive on Gimli's scum games, but I agree that what he has done thus far on site has been rather limited as scum and he has surpassed it in this game.

Here is my current theory: if Gimli is scum in this game, it is the first time he has had to play the role of 'carry' as scum, and thus that's making him level up his scum game individually. A large part of every scum game Gimli has played on-site has been his ability to set his partners up for success; I noticed that in reading over his games, T-Bone notes it in his recent nomination of Gimli for a Scummie when they were partners together (found here). When Gimli and I were scum together in our first game together, his intention was to get himself eliminated in a way that set me up for endgame, before realising that we were playing White Flag and therefore he shouldn't have been playing that way (link). Overall it seems clear to me that Gimli chooses to play scum as a support role, where he props up his partners for endgame instead of himself. I think this is something he would acknowledge as true.

In this game, that kind of play fundamentally would not be possible for Gimli!scum. The first three scum all were eliminated in the first three Days. If Gimli is scum here, he couldn't play by his normal game plan, by what you or me have seen before from him as scum. He had to carry the team. Which is why we're seeing leveled-up play compared to what we'd expect. The idea is that Gimli is

capable

of playing a rather strong individual scum game (and is doing so here), but normally chooses not to do so in favor of propping up his team. (My support for believing this is plausible is that I know Gimli highly values teamwork in this game in general; he has frequently praised me for being a 'team player' in my town games so I know he cares about that; and the previously mentioned high-level critical thinking skills that he has.)

The thing is, in Gimli's scum games, even though the

output

that he gives in-thread isn't super towny-looking, he is clearly thinking really hard about how to set up the carry and you can see it in how he communicates in scum PTs. He plays scum at a high level, it just usually isn't with the ultimate goal of getting him to endgame. Since it would be necessary for Gimli to endgame in this game from very early on if he's scum, I believe that would necessitate a massive change from his usual play.


Typing this out into words has given me a bit more conviction in it as an idea than I had beforehand. The thing is, the main reason I'm considering it at all is because we're in a situation where one of Gimli/furtive is scum choosing to go after me, and the other is town who is misguided on me. Between those two options, my interpretation of what's happening right now is that furtive has been wrongly scumreading me all game and refuses to reconsider, and Gimli is scum who has locked onto me as a win condition. It feels a lot more likely to me than Gimli wrongly deciding I must be scum today and all of his posts pushing that idea forward, and furtive being scum benefitting from this push. Furtive feels like town today and Gimli feels like scum today.