Mini 673 - Game Over!

[strife220]

Strife thinks that there is an sk and a vig, which is plausible. I don't know why he jumped to that conclusion, however. Strife, did you even consider the possibility of there being two scum groups, which one gone and the other with only one member remaining?

3 deaths day 1 in a mini made me assume a typical mafia, scum, + vig. Death of 3 mafia without the game ending reinforces this. I suppose there could be a strange role like CPR doc, but this is a mini normal, and Occam's razor says otherwise.

I've never seen a mini with two scum groups. I've also never seen a large game with two scum groups where the two groups weren't differentiated by name, e.g. "bacteria" and "virus" (http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2306).
Since the three scum dead on the first page are all plain ol' "Mafia," I don't see why you would think there could be two scum groups.

[MadCrawdad]

MC:

Who's more likely to be scum?

Darox or Strife?

Hard to say at this point... you mention their popularity, but they're the only other two posting in this game, and happen to be popular with each other.

There's a deadline in 3 days, and half the town hasn't even posted anything on Day 3. Keep going with those rereads, and just post when you get a chance, so we can all just guess away on the day of the deadline.

[stark]

MC:

Who's more likely to be scum?

Darox or Strife?

Hard to say at this point... you mention their popularity, but they're the only other two posting in this game, and happen to be popular with each other.

There's a deadline in 3 days, and half the town hasn't even posted anything on Day 3. Keep going with those rereads, and just post when you get a chance, so we can all just guess away on the day of the deadline.

All the more reason for mass claim

[MadCrawdad]

Fine by me...

[hp [leaves]]

Fine by me too even though I don't have much to claim.

[MadCrawdad]

Fine by me too even though I don't have much to claim.

Well, it looks like you just did

[hp [leaves]]

Well, it might not be what you think.

[strife220]

I've given a clear reason why we shouldn't mass-claim, and I still haven't seen anybody give a reason why we should.

We can certainly afford a massclaim with so many dead anti-town.

We can afford it = admitting there's a downside but not addressing the upside.

I also think it'll guide us to the path of victory.

How?


Deadline is in 48 hours and 4 out of 6 people don't have a vote out. Go read the 19 pages of text, decide who the scummiest person alive is, vote for them, try to convince people to take your side, get them to L-1, force a claim, rethink the target, and then ultimately choose the lynch for the day. i.e. play mafia.

Darox is obviously at the top of my list, but I'd be more than interested to hear other's opinions.

[scotmany12]

Vote: strife220

This is a good vote; reasoning coming when I have more time on my hands, most likely sometime over the weekend.

[MadCrawdad]

So you're willing to put someone at -1 and not give a reason? Right. You don't have a couple of spare minutes to even just give a hint? Right.

I believe that deadline is tomorrow, and you're not sure when when you'll actually be able to give a reason. Okay then...

[MadCrawdad]

Strife, that puts you at -1... Anything you want to say?

[hp [leaves]]

More time on hand... More like on the next day.

[scotmany12]

So you're willing to put someone at -1 and not give a reason? Right. You don't have a couple of spare minutes to even just give a hint? Right.

I believe that deadline is tomorrow, and you're not sure when when you'll actually be able to give a reason. Okay then...

He is actually at lynch -2. And yes, I am. I was busy finishing up a paper yesterday, and I thought the deadline was monday for some reason. It simply means I have to post something today instead.

[MadCrawdad]

He is actually at lynch -2. And yes, I am. I was busy finishing up a paper yesterday, and I thought the deadline was monday for some reason. It simply means I have to post something today instead.

In looking at the most current vote count below, he was already at -2. Your vote puts him at -1.

Vote Count

strife220 (1): (Darox)

Not Voting (5): (stark, strife220, scotmany, [hp]leaves, MadCrawdad)

5 alive, 3 to lynch

Deadline is Nov. 22nd
I'm willing to extend the deadline if activity keeps up

this was a mod mistake it should be 6 alive 4 to lynch

[dahill1]

Vote Count

strife220 (2): (Darox, scotmany12)

Not Voting (4): (stark, strife220, [hp]leaves, MadCrawdad)

6 alive, 4 to lynch

Deadline is tomorrow

[strife220]

Vote: strife220

This is a good vote; reasoning coming when I have more time on my hands, most likely sometime over the weekend.

Not a particularly fair vote right before deadline...


Mod: What time of day is deadline? Also, my vote is on Darox, so the vote count is off.


Stark, HP and Crawdad, please post your opinions. It's still totally unclear who you think should be lynched today with deadline in under 24 hours. If it's me, then force me to claim. If it's Darox or someone else, please put your votes out.

[scotmany12]

Vote: strife220

This is a good vote; reasoning coming when I have more time on my hands, most likely sometime over the weekend.

Not a particularly fair vote right before deadline...

I see no reason why anyone who is town would oppose a massclaim today. If we have a vig, then it gives the vigs options. You stated that you gave a good reason against massclaim which you never did. I also find you the most likeliest candidate to be a sk as you jump to the conclusion that we have a sk. While it is possible, it is not the only possibility.

I also disliked your interaction with cow when you started talking about statistics. It was unnecessary and unhelpful. And then you voted for stark at the end of deadline. Taking away that you had a reason that was inaccurate, your reason for voting stark was that he was proud that he was right about fuzzy, which means nothing, and that he was not voting, of which darox was also guilty of. It looked like you were just trying to put your vote anywhere but gurgi, as if you were afraid he was truly the doc and didn't want to be caught on his wagon. Then there is also my gut, and it is telling me that you are scum.

[strife220]

I see no reason why anyone who is town would oppose a massclaim today. If we have a vig, then it gives the vigs options.

It's not lylo, so massclaim means scum knows who to kill tonight.

I also find you the most likeliest candidate to be a sk as you jump to the conclusion that we have a sk. While it is possible, it is not the only possibility.

What other explanation is there for the game being ongoing? 4 mafia in a mini? A cult?

I also disliked your interaction with cow when you started talking about statistics. It was unnecessary and unhelpful.

He said Gurgi was his second top suspect. However when asked how likely he was to be scum, Has said 30%, which was the percent chance of Anyone being scum at that point. I came up with two possible explanations for his math being wrong. Either he wasn't/isn't good with percentages, i.e. if 1 scum is left in the game, your 'percent chance of being scum' of everyone combined should add up to 100.
Other explanation is he was anticipating Gurgi flipping town and wanted to downplay his role in the lynch - i.e. he gets the opportunity to say 'oh... well I thought he was probably town anyway.' Hindsight gave me the answer, but in general, I think it's a scum-tell when people downplay their confidence in the soon-to-be-lynched's alignment. It's a sign of them knowing that person's alignment.

your reason for voting stark was that he was proud that he was right about fuzzy, which means nothing, and that he was not voting, of which darox was also guilty of. It looked like you were just trying to put your vote anywhere but gurgi, as if you were afraid he was truly the doc and didn't want to be caught on his wagon. Then there is also my gut, and it is telling me that you are scum.

There was absolutely no reason to lynch Gurgi yesterday, since his alignment would effectively be proven overnight. By lynching Gurgi, scum got rid of the doc and cop in a single day. How is me trying to get another wagon going a scum-tell? You think the pro-town thing to do was lynch the claimed doc?

[Darox]

talking about PEG's post doesn't make any sense at all. Say's he's "not sure if [he's] comfortable interpreting peg's quoted post" but that "it's certainly interesting." What?

Can't recall the specifics of this comment, but I don't see what's wrong with saying something is interesting/relevant but not concrete enough to draw immediate specific conclusions.

Because you are drawing attention to something without attaching any of your own opinions to it. It's a very 'safe' move which is at best a distraction and at worst a way to mislead the town without putting yourself in the spotlight.

then reveals that his big speech prepared on fuzzylightning boiled down to "He survived Day 1" (Uh, okay?)

Adding 'Uh, Okay?' to the end of comments is not an argument. You asked why I was suspicious of Fuzzy. I gave my legitimate reasoning. You're using the fact that I was obviously wrong to paint me as scum. Now let me flip the attack around - What information could possibly be gained out of requesting a player to make an attack on a confirmed innocent, besides the opportunity to stand up on a high-horse and state the obvious 'you're wrong'?

If you can't beat them, attack them hard and fast with a misrep to try and catch them off guard. I never suggested that because you thought fuzzy was scum when he was a survivor made you scum.
Your entry into the game consisted of "I had a lot written on fuzzy, but he's dead, oh well" which smacks of being an excuse for any input. When pressed on what your thoughts on fuzzy were exactly by Madcraw (Who gets townie points for this) your summary boils down to "He survived day 1" which is pretty bare boned considering you said you "had a lot ready to say about the fuzzylightning issue." Basically, it looks like a stretch to find something to fill the gap after being called out on not having any opinions.

Goes on to explain a bit more about his points against tomato and on PEG. This is just baffling. He states that PEG clearly ordered his list of the wagons at that time in a specific way (Clearly )

What are you trying to convey with your sarcasm this time? How is what I said scummy or incorrect?

You're taking PEG's list of bandwagons and trying to stretch it in the mad hope it will turn into evidence. Normally I would call this blatant misrep but your lack of anything other than "Hey look at this" and your general play in the rest of the game makes me think you're just trying to seem helpful when really you're just twiddling your thumbs.

then goes on to say that there is lots of information in the post (Mind sharing some?) but that "Strong Conclusions can't be made" (Que?) and to top it all off, he says people should make up their own minds. (How about telling us what's on yours first, hmm?)

I noticed you didn't answer this, and this isn't too surprising.

Moving on, in response to further questions about his prior statements on PEG, he responds "I'm not going to answer this question (No change here then), because I don't think such subtle town- tells (Err... I'm at a loss for words at this)" and then goes on with some poorly considered WIFOM questions.

This can be broken down into my belief that scum-tells should always be brought up, but town tells should usually be kept to ones-self, at least until said person is at risk of getting lynched. If you don't understand why, I'm sure there are some lengthy posts in the mafia discussion forum discussing this issue.
The specific issue I was referring to is PEG's defense on Scot, which I considered to be a town-tell for Scot, because scum seldom defend their partners so explicitly. However me making this argument at that time would not have been helpful to the town for the same reason town-tells are seldom worth bringing up. If he was close to being lynched, I would have explicitly brought it up. However, he wasn't close to being lynched, so I just highlighted it so that others could see its significance.

So you believe towntells should be kept to ones self because they just help the scum pick off the most pro town players, but then you spit one out at me while explaining the dangers of revealing towntells? Come on, really? And you completely ignored my comments about you avoiding questions and using bad WIFOM.
--

In other news, I'm fine with a massclaim, although I haven't had much success with them.

[dahill1]

Vote Count

strife220 (2): (Darox, scotmany12)
Darox (1): (strife220)

Not Voting (3): (stark, [hp]leaves, MadCrawdad)

6 alive, 4 to lynch

Deadline is today at 8 PM EST. There's a possibility it could be extended by a few hours but assume 8. Any votes that come in before I lock the thread

will

count.

[strife220]

talking about PEG's post doesn't make any sense at all. Say's he's "not sure if [he's] comfortable interpreting peg's quoted post" but that "it's certainly interesting." What?

Can't recall the specifics of this comment, but I don't see what's wrong with saying something is interesting/relevant but not concrete enough to draw immediate specific conclusions.

Because you are drawing attention to something without attaching any of your own opinions to it. It's a very 'safe' move which is at best a distraction and at worst a way to mislead the town without putting yourself in the spotlight.

If we're talking about PEG's 7th post, then I wasn't attaching opinions to it because they were town tells - see below.

then reveals that his big speech prepared on fuzzylightning boiled down to "He survived Day 1" (Uh, okay?)

Adding 'Uh, Okay?' to the end of comments is not an argument. You asked why I was suspicious of Fuzzy. I gave my legitimate reasoning. You're using the fact that I was obviously wrong to paint me as scum. Now let me flip the attack around - What information could possibly be gained out of requesting a player to make an attack on a confirmed innocent, besides the opportunity to stand up on a high-horse and state the obvious 'you're wrong'?

If you can't beat them, attack them hard and fast with a misrep to try and catch them off guard. I never suggested that because you thought fuzzy was scum when he was a survivor made you scum.
Your entry into the game consisted of "I had a lot written on fuzzy, but he's dead, oh well" which smacks of being an excuse for any input. When pressed on what your thoughts on fuzzy were exactly by Madcraw (Who gets townie points for this) your summary boils down to "He survived day 1" which is pretty bare boned considering you said you "had a lot ready to say about the fuzzylightning issue." Basically, it looks like a stretch to find something to fill the gap after being called out on not having any pinions.

You're accusing me of having no opinions? I started the day saying I had an attack ready but since he died, needed to come up with a new theory. 2 days later, I came up with a new theory and made a large post. So I was filling in the 48 hour gap? You're accusing me of just making a useless noise post when I was posting opinions all day. Look at your own posting history - when you subbed in, all you produced was noise for the first 2 or 3 weeks of gameplay.

then goes on to say that there is lots of information in the post (Mind sharing some?) but that "Strong Conclusions can't be made" (Que?) and to top it all off, he says people should make up their own minds. (How about telling us what's on yours first, hmm?)

I noticed you didn't answer this, and this isn't too surprising.

I did - it was in the 'town tells' part. i.e. People should make their own opinions because I'm not going to explicitly say in game I think person X is town.

Goes on to explain a bit more about his points against tomato and on PEG. This is just baffling. He states that PEG clearly ordered his list of the wagons at that time in a specific way (Clearly )

What are you trying to convey with your sarcasm this time? How is what I said scummy or incorrect?

You're taking PEG's list of bandwagons and trying to stretch it in the mad hope it will turn into evidence. Normally I would call this blatant misrep but your lack of anything other than "Hey look at this" and your general play in the rest of the game makes me think you're just trying to seem helpful when really you're just twiddling your thumbs.

Again, the master D2-lurker is accusing me of not contributing..

So you believe towntells should be kept to ones self because they just help the scum pick off the most pro town players, but then you spit one out at me while explaining the dangers of revealing towntells? Come on, really?

The mafia are dead - we already know that Scot wasn't PEG's partner. The towntells are now irrelevant.

And you completely ignored my comments about you avoiding questions and using bad WIFOM.

Because you didn't say how or where I was avoiding questions and using bad WIFOM, you just said I was doing it.

[stark]

I am really unconvinced by the arguments today.

But I'm going to put a vote on strife since I'm probably not going to be in contact with a computer until after the deadline passes.

We can also afford a mislynch today, so no big problem.

vote: strife220

[stark]

EBWOP:

Massclaim definitely tommorow

[strife220]

Claim-time it is then.

I'm a vig. I killed PEG N1 right after I subbed in to the game. Which means scum killed Fuzzy and 'someone else' killed Simpor. I've been assuming that 'someone else' is a SK since the the beginning of D2.

N2 I killed Simenon. Recall this conversation:

I don't see how a vig (or whatever) coming out before mass-claim is useful to town.


I got Stark and Simenon mixed up yesterday it seems - for some reason I thought Stark was the one who said he had 'figured the game out.' Certainly need to give them game a quick re-read before I get a new top suspect.

Strife, how did you come to the conclusion that you got stark and Sim mixed up if you didn't re-read already? I must've missed where someone brought it to your attention.

I was going to choose Stark as my target. I double-checked his posts to make sure I was confident, and realized I was mixed up. It was Sim who made the scummy comment that I had been talking about all D2. So I chose him to NK.

I assume there were only 2 kills on N2 because of the 3 killers, 2 of them overlapped. So either the SK and scum both targetted Has (very likely - cops are dangerous), or the SK and I targetted Sim. Alternatively, there is no SK or the SK chose not to shoot, but neither of those seem likely given the circumstances.

I didn't want to massclaim today because it would probably have meant my death tonight. Massclaim wouldn't help town because a SK would be able to claim vanilla and town would gain nothing.


Please keep in mind that if I was the SK, I would have no motivation to claim Vig.
Assume we have a SK and 5 townies alive - one townie can NK. If the SK claimed vig, then the real vig would shoot the SK overnight, guaranteeing a SK loss. We're also not in lylo, so a counter-claim on D4 would Still guarantee a SK loss.


Barring a counter-claim, I believe my claim is indisputable. If someone does counterclaim, then he is the SK and we will shoot each other overnight. Darox has played the entire game with the motivation of a serial killer. He should be the lynch today. We have a few hours until deadline, lets please get a good lynch off today.

[scotmany12]

Sigh...

Unvote, Vote: Darox

As a vig, you should want a massclaim strife...that being said, this is not a claim scum would make.