Open 870 | White Flag Mountainous | Postgame

[Aubrey]

I have some questions, but doubt I’ll get proper answers for them without a flip.

If I had a gun, I’d flip Fire/Ari so fast. I’m just surprised how fast the wagon changed and with what seemed to be little reasoning. The replace out to me is NAI. Any alignment can get pissy feeling defeated and just peace out. Why did y’all flip…surely that wasn’t the reason.

TGP, why didn’t you wait? We’ve been interested in more developed reads yet all we can judge you on is your Shirou idea and this “tired” vote onto Una even though you preferred Ari/Fire?

Shirou, if you didn’t trust either slot then there was no reason for your antics…this just makes Fire/Ari seem more like a prime suspect. Your friend also seemed disinterested in the game so why go to the trouble of keeping her in longer and offing Una? Who couldn’t even defend their slot?

[giuseppina]

So pina you going to vote today?

i likely will yes

i likely would have yesterday too were a wagon not randomly pushed through

so i guess i might not if everyone decides to go that route again

[giuseppina]

VOTE: shurro

Wanna murder shurro before he starts spamming?

i actually thought about voting shirou at daystart for what it’s worth

[Toto]

Ari replace out felt like frustrated townie imo. Scum are more likely to hold on for their scum team.

[Aubrey]

Nah. I’m not going down that rabbit hole of thought. That player I can see replacing out in a fit of emotion and dissatisfaction in the game either side.

[Toto]

Also the supposedly scum atey self is not consistent with replaceout mentality.

[giuseppina]

If I had a gun, I’d flip Fire/Ari so fast. I’m just surprised how fast the wagon changed and with what seemed to be little reasoning. The replace out to me is NAI. Any alignment can get pissy feeling defeated and just peace out. Why did y’all flip…surely that wasn’t the reason.

the wagon changed because shirou changed it and then while hard pushing una was still saying ‘but if una town get aristeia!!!’ as if aristeia was the one eliminating una not shirou

[Aubrey]

Shirou didnt “change it” everyone followed and dropped it. That blame doesn’t really go to him unless we say he encouraged change. Everyone is responsible for themselves.

[fireisredsir]

ari wasn't disinterested in the game

[giuseppina]

Shirou didnt “change it” everyone followed and dropped it. That blame doesn’t really go to him unless we say he encouraged change. Everyone is responsible for themselves.

i don’t wholly disagree and am frustrated across the board with the way the day ended and everyone involved

but had shirou pushed through aristeia elimination instead then aristeia would have been eliminated not una

unless you disagree with that? which wouldn’t really make all that much sense to me as aristeia had even self-voted

like do i think gamma emerald and whoever else is town there should have unvoted and taken a step back and assessed? yup

do i think mafia would have been likely to take great advantage of shirou’s desire to end the day (even though shirou told me like three hours before that that was not his desire) if shirou is town (especially if aristeia was mafia but either way)? yep

but like i said before it’s pretty difficult to find any town motivation for any of that

and i don’t really understand why you feel shirou shouldn’t bear additional responsibility

aristeia would not have even been potentially eliminated at that exact moment either were it not for shirou randomly being bloodlusty so it’s weird to me that it seems like you wanted that pushed through but don’t think of it as shirou changing the target

[Cat Scratch Fever]

oops apologies csf i will try to linebreak and/or punctuation more

That was fine! but thank you :p

[Cat Scratch Fever]

the goals are mostly thread control and get townread

i don't think that it meaningfully accomplished anything that would benefit town it was just like pure performance to dance on top of town who will respond to it with "scum wouldn't do something that crazy, right?" and people who just saw him act in a surface level similar way in dance game

the comparisons kinda end at the surface level tho, i think his play in dance game made him town for reasons that aren't present here at all (there he clearly believed in his reads, and the level to which he pushed the push he was making wouldn't really help scum in the long run at all)

If you and Una were competing TvT wagons, I don't really see why Shirou had to do what he did there? What are your thoughts on that?

[giuseppina]

Shirou didnt “change it” everyone followed and dropped it. That blame doesn’t really go to him unless we say he encouraged change. Everyone is responsible for themselves.

i don’t wholly disagree and am frustrated across the board with the way the day ended and everyone involved

but had shirou pushed through aristeia elimination instead then aristeia would have been eliminated not una

unless you disagree with that? which wouldn’t really make all that much sense to me as aristeia had even self-voted

like do i think gamma emerald and whoever else is town there should have unvoted and taken a step back and assessed? yup

do i think mafia would have been likely to take great advantage of shirou’s desire to end the day (even though shirou told me like three hours before that that was not his desire) if shirou is town (especially if aristeia was mafia but either way)? yep

but like i said before it’s pretty difficult to find any town motivation for any of that

and i don’t really understand why you feel shirou shouldn’t bear additional responsibility

aristeia would not have even been potentially eliminated at that exact moment either were it not for shirou randomly being bloodlusty so it’s weird to me that it seems like you wanted that pushed through but don’t think of it as shirou changing the target

and it’s not like i am faultless either - if you want to say my lack of direction contributed to the game being in a state where that could occur in the first place i would probably agree with you

[Cat Scratch Fever]

i'm also pretty tired and frustrated and want a flip. i think una is +rand to be scum but this is not a strong read and i'd prefer ari, i just... want a flip more than i want to try to push for a lim on the ari slot.

I think this is pretty bad justification for the hammer btw. TGP doesn't mention a read on Una at all before this, and it's not clear to me what kind of answers an Una flip would give to help TGP solve.

[fireisredsir]

the goals are mostly thread control and get townread

i don't think that it meaningfully accomplished anything that would benefit town it was just like pure performance to dance on top of town who will respond to it with "scum wouldn't do something that crazy, right?" and people who just saw him act in a surface level similar way in dance game

the comparisons kinda end at the surface level tho, i think his play in dance game made him town for reasons that aren't present here at all (there he clearly believed in his reads, and the level to which he pushed the push he was making wouldn't really help scum in the long run at all)

If you and Una were competing TvT wagons, I don't really see why Shirou had to do what he did there? What are your thoughts on that?

ik i said i wasn't gonna try to hero solve too much but i do think suspicion and support for a wagon was building on tgp at the time actually

and the time when una was eliminated was like the absolute peak of una limmability. there i think was a good enough chance that once she's not v/la she ends up getting more townread and can't be so easily pushed

just sitting back and letting two town wagons linger when a lot of the game is kinda afk or not actively pushing things and both of the wagons are on people who are talkative is dangerous

i think things over time could have easily turned and enough people start to townread both that now you've lost two lims for nothing. instead he gets to pull out some bs in 1360 to try to get both of them

[giuseppina]

the goals are mostly thread control and get townread

i don't think that it meaningfully accomplished anything that would benefit town it was just like pure performance to dance on top of town who will respond to it with "scum wouldn't do something that crazy, right?" and people who just saw him act in a surface level similar way in dance game

the comparisons kinda end at the surface level tho, i think his play in dance game made him town for reasons that aren't present here at all (there he clearly believed in his reads, and the level to which he pushed the push he was making wouldn't really help scum in the long run at all)

If you and Una were competing TvT wagons, I don't really see why Shirou had to do what he did there? What are your thoughts on that?

ik i said i wasn't gonna try to hero solve too much but i do think suspicion and support for a wagon was building on tgp at the time actually

and the time when una was eliminated was like the absolute peak of una limmability. there i think was a good enough chance that once she's not v/la she ends up getting more townread and can't be so easily pushed

just sitting back and letting two town wagons linger when a lot of the game is kinda afk or not actively pushing things and both of the wagons are on people who are talkative is dangerous

i think things over time could have easily turned and enough people start to townread both that now you've lost two lims for nothing. instead he gets to pull out some bs in 1360 to try to get both of them

i think there’s probably also noteworthy associatives with lucian (now gimli) since shirou kept asking aristeia about lucian/una solve and others had voiced suspicion of lucian at various points but shirou only ever focused on una

like some sort of implied if aristeia wrong and una is not mafia then lucian is not mafia either but aristeia probably is mafia? all of which doesn’t really add up

[Cat Scratch Fever]

and the time when una was eliminated was like the absolute peak of una limmability. there i think was a good enough chance that once she's not v/la she ends up getting more townread and can't be so easily pushed

I'm not so sure about this, because there was a wagon on Una when she was still present and active in the thread.

I think the rest of your post makes sense if you're scumreading Shirou though, but I still kind of think he's town.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

VOTE: TGP

[fireisredsir]

I'm obvtown

If you weren't scum reading me and the person I'm pushing at the same time as if it's something reasonable I would be inclined to agree you were one of the townier ones

unironically im like 80% that town shirou has the reaction more along the lines of "ohoho, cross bussing my partner on day one when neither of us was a major suspect? that does indeed sound like the type of devious plan i may attempt to pull off as scum [anime gif]"

instead he sounds like... annoyed that the plan isn't working lol and just jumps to discrediting

[fireisredsir]

and the time when una was eliminated was like the absolute peak of una limmability. there i think was a good enough chance that once she's not v/la she ends up getting more townread and can't be so easily pushed

I'm not so sure about this, because there was a wagon on Una when she was still present and active in the thread.

I think the rest of your post makes sense if you're scumreading Shirou though, but I still kind of think he's town.

i agree that una wasn't sufficiently towny for me to find her as town early on either

but my point was that given time she may end up towntelling enough to not get eliminated and i think shirou would be concerned about that possibility

[fireisredsir]

i think there’s probably also noteworthy associatives with lucian (now gimli) since shirou kept asking aristeia about lucian/una solve and others had voiced suspicion of lucian at various points but shirou only ever focused on una

like some sort of implied if aristeia wrong and una is not mafia then lucian is not mafia either but aristeia probably is mafia? all of which doesn’t really add up

its possible

my lean town on lucian is independent of other reads and is based on his own play. i think this is a game where he would be more likely to struggle to really sink his teeth into it (which imo it felt like that was the case) as town than he would as scum

he also has been complaining about being so tired of being scum with potatoes and shirou may be many things but a potato he is not

so i kinda think lucian's lack of engagement and motivation is slightly antiassociative with shirou who is more than willing to do the heavy lifting that lucian is tired of doing

neither of those things are probably rigorous enough to fully base a read on, but from spec im allowed to make those sort of reads without being challenged on them and my accuracy is generally higher than it is when im in the game so idk maybe ill allow myself to give it a little weight

[Cat Scratch Fever]

VOTE: TGP

Aside from the hammer, I also think TGP is scummy for pushing Shirou for policy reasons but trying to not make it seem like a policy push (1076 says shirou's metapush is scummy but he also needs to be fearlimmed)

Then his transition to a Shirou townread in 1328 feels too sudden and unnatural. If you look at TGP's ISO, he has alternated between scumreading Shirou and being uncertain about him ever since page 22 (614 - votes Shirou). The quoted Shirou post that gives him a change of heart doesn't even feel that AI to me -

Spoiler:

I haven't that much experience on Lucian/Una so I feel scummy vibes but not "never wrong"/"almost never wrong" confidence

If you do feel that I can vote Una

i'm insanely skeptical that you can even hit that level of confidence on d1 reliably ever

...but god, you're just town aren't you Shirou

UNVOTE:

i maintain that i should vote you if i don't reasonably strongly townread you but right now even trying to discount hard for the fact that activity makes you seem more towny you seem actually trying to solve the game

Also 865 feels like it was edited after the fact to add a respond to Aristeia's 653 (the quoted posts are out of order)

[fireisredsir]

Also, I will be lazy this game. That is what I told myself, at least. University is killing me right now. Will I end up going back on that and posting a lot anyway? Probably. But I will try not to.

he did say from the start that he was going to be lazy but idk i think he just felt kinda lost most of the game. like he wasn't sure what to do or where to go

the only time ive seen him even vaguely like that as scum was in spring fling dance but i still think there it felt like he clearly had goals and direction

i don't think it's an inability to engage with the game from the mafia side of things bc he was getting several people suspecting him and one of his favourite angles into the game as scum is arguing with people who scumread him

whereas town is less sure that arguing is going to be productive especially if he knows that his contributions so far haven't been super towny

so if he's scum i feel like it has to kinda be an intentional choice to give off lost and confused townie vibes which just doesn't really feel like the play here? it wasn't really working

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: TGP

Aside from the hammer, I also think TGP is scummy for pushing Shirou for policy reasons but trying to not make it seem like a policy push (1076 says shirou's metapush is scummy but he also needs to be fearlimmed)

Then his transition to a Shirou townread in 1328 feels too sudden and unnatural. If you look at TGP's ISO, he has alternated between scumreading Shirou and being uncertain about him ever since page 22 (614 - votes Shirou). The quoted Shirou post that gives him a change of heart doesn't even feel that AI to me -

Spoiler:

I haven't that much experience on Lucian/Una so I feel scummy vibes but not "never wrong"/"almost never wrong" confidence

If you do feel that I can vote Una

i'm insanely skeptical that you can even hit that level of confidence on d1 reliably ever

...but god, you're just town aren't you Shirou

UNVOTE:

i maintain that i should vote you if i don't reasonably strongly townread you but right now even trying to discount hard for the fact that activity makes you seem more towny you seem actually trying to solve the game

Also 865 feels like it was edited after the fact to add a respond to Aristeia's 653 (the quoted posts are out of order)

i agree with this. the awkward approach to shirou i think is super questionable regardless of shirou's alignment but i also think it makes sense as paired to me (and shirou's handling of it on the other side was also p weird imo)

[fireisredsir]

to be specific, in the world where shirou and tgp are scum together, i think the plan (or at least a plausible hypothetical plan) was:

1) cross bus and look unaligned just through the ridiculousness of their approaches seeming unbelievable as paired
2) actually try to flip tgp
3) if it works, shirou uses that correct flip to get thread control to defend whoever the remaining scum is and push town elims instead
4) if it doesn't work, they still look unaligned bc he legit tried to get him flipped, and they can take that to endgame

i think him saying that toto is ridiculous for suggesting that it's even possible they could be scum together is p silly and not really believable

i also think (again, if we live in this hypothetical world) he knew the anti-associatives weren't as good as they needed to be and the plan might not work and so he didn't full commit to the tgp push and skipped straight to yeeting town so that "bad reads" can be a reason why he isn't getting nightkilled

i don't think that the way he pushed tgp and then backs off actually makes any sense at all as town. it's all positional there's no real read behind it