Cosmos Mafia (Postgame)

[Past Present Future]

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=89992&user_select%5B%5D=36815

And here, not really sure how helpful that will be to you, since the vast majority of posts were made by RR in that.

You can look up my main since I usually ego post in all of my hydra games.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=89739
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=88034
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=85710
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=83872

Enjoy, none of them are very long
Let me know what you get from them please!

Really not very much, probably stick to trying to read Bella then.

I'll be blunt and say that I don't think I'm capable of doing what I've done in this game as scum, and my abysmal performances in all of my scum games in the past two years is my evidence for it

On the other hand, all of my town games in recent history have looked basically like this game

[Past Present Future]

Well like I said I think Fire can only be solar or town. I honestly don’t believe he can be lunar, so if you’re telling the truth, you need to look deeper.

[Enchant]

Let's try process of elimination.


Dingle Dangle Scarecrow
Magician
Enchant

Past Present Future

Impossible. Sun Attunement.
Cat Scratch Fever
Firebringer
T-Bone

^ Potential Lunars

Dingle Dangle Scarecrow

Impossible. Lunar Blessing.
Magician
Past Present Future
Cat Scratch Fever
Enchant
Firebringer
T-Bone

^ Potentional Solars


P.S. I know that i know i am not any of these teams, i mostly want to know why YOU think i am not.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Well like I said I think Fire can only be solar or town. I honestly don’t believe he can be lunar, so if you’re telling the truth, you need to look deeper.

Who do

you

think is Lunar, Nancy?

[Past Present Future]

Well like I said I think Fire can only be solar or town. I honestly don’t believe he can be lunar, so if you’re telling the truth, you need to look deeper.

Who do

you

think is Lunar, Nancy?

That’s what I’m trying to find out but not CSF or Fire. Could be you or T-Bone? I guess Magician and Enchant possibilities? I just don’t think it’s Fire. I think Ydra flip spewed Fire as NOT lunar and I think CSF probably town due to both my Yume read and RR flip.

So assuming it’s not you, if you took Fire off the table, who would be your next likely guess? Or maybe tell me who you think is highly unlikely. I don’t believe STD and FA are ever buddies here, so I’d pretty much bet the. game on that. I would be totally shocked if I’m wrong about this.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Let's try process of elimination.


Dingle Dangle Scarecrow
Magician
Enchant

Past Present Future

Impossible. Sun Attunement.
Cat Scratch Fever
Firebringer
T-Bone

^ Potential Lunars

Dingle Dangle Scarecrow

Impossible. Lunar Blessing.
Magician
Past Present Future
Cat Scratch Fever
Enchant
Firebringer
T-Bone

^ Potentional Solars


P.S. I know that i know i am not any of these teams, i mostly want to know why YOU think i am not.

I really, really like this as a thread exercise. Let's do it.

It can keep us on track with one topic at a time and actually progress us towards a logical general reads list that is difficult to dismantle. When a sizable chunk of players agree a player can be crossed off, we can cross them off the 'main list'? Dunno if we want a strict method of deciding when someone's out of the PoE. (Unless you were just intending to have this as your personal list, which is also cool)

I'll contribute a few reads here that I think should be easy for anyone to cross off the list:

T-Bone is not Solar.

This is due to his interactions with Radical Rat and the Burn mechanic. T-Bone received the Burn message from Porkens that backed up Radical Rat's claim. We KNOW that scum had the ability to send that message to someone unaligned with them. To assume that T-Bone is Solar is to assume that they chose to have a buddy play that role instead, and also intentionally chose not to use Porkens' role to mess with someone unaligned with them. I don't believe that's plausible at all.

Magician is not Solar.

I believe this because of JunkoChan's approach to the Porkens wagon. I'm strongly of the opinion that the last Solar wouldn't have willingly let Porkens die on the day of his elimination. Look at how Radical Rat reacted to the sudden Porkens pop-up if you want a glimpse at the general feelings the Solar scumteam had about that wagon forming. Now look at JunkoChan's play around that wagon:

Though maybe part of the reason that every wagon is stalling is that we (or at least i) don't want to end the day with an empty Porkens slot, since i don't want to sit through another 5 day nightphase waiting for a replacement again

Thoughts on flipping that slot then?

But actually this. You don't want to end the day or wait for 5 night days but You want to vote fire

Like make up your mind dude at least i'm being honest about just wanting to end the day unlike all of You, heck i don't think porkens slot is scum and i said so, but If it ends this stupid day i'm down for that

C.. can we just kill this and maybe still have a game to play?
VOTE: porkens

T-Bone
Professotic
JunkoChan
CSF
Meuh
Enchant

Porkens et al.

PPF
Ydrasse
Firebringer
MathBlade/DDS

Enchant is the lowest one on the list that I'd consider to be a townread.

I'm sorry you are going to lose your buddy, it sucks I know

the slot is in a spot in your read list usually around where scum puts their buddies

what changed your midn since then? who's a better target? why? why haven'¿t you pushed for it?

compromise or stfu

This player wasn't Porkens' and Radical Rat's partner. There's gambits, and then there's throwing away your team's chances for no reason.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I have others I'd like to add to that list but I want to start with the obvious ones to not flood the idea space too much and let others weigh in on the PoE idea itself

[Past Present Future]

I have others I'd like to add to that list but I want to start with the obvious ones to not flood the idea space too much and let others weigh in on the PoE idea itself

I’m inclined to agree but I think Fire is an extremely obvious not lunar. The way STD reacted to FA push isn’t how scum usually reacts to being pushed by a buddy. I still can’t understand how you’re not seeing that. Why STD react the way he did if FA was a buddy? I think scum caught for the wrong reasons. I think STD would have probably made that same post as town wrt the mech thing and got rattled when FA jumped on him for that.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I get that you really want to talk about that specific read
I don't agree with your reasoning and think getting into it at detail with you specifically wouldn't actually be productive at this time
I think I'd rather talk about other reads at the moment and we can come back to that one if that's alright
Preferably with more people involved in that discussion

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I specifically think the Group PoE thing is a VERY good tool for telling what is ACTUALLY obvious to the group of people that we have, as opposed to what one person says is obvious and a few other people aren't sure about. Having clear points of discussion will help massively with that.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Plus, when we do get to that read you can clearly, wholly present the evidence you have for Firebringer not being Lunar all in one condensed area, so that your reasons for thinking that are really clear and can be agreed or disagreed with really clearly. Instead of the jumbled-across-the-thread approach we currently have.

[MegAzumarill]

A reminder that speculating reasons why a player replaced out is against the rules.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

I agree that Magician and T-Bone are not Solar. If you remove me from the Solar list because of no NK that first noon, the list of Solar is really just:

PPF
Enchant
Firebringer

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

...I hadn't considered that, but yeah I agree that that is very clear evidence that you're not Solar. I was going to present different evidence based on what I wrote in 8118 but that's a lot more solid.

[Past Present Future]

I don't think Frozen Angel and STD were partners
I think the FA and STD argument doesn't happen the way it did if they were partners

I looked up that post you made wrt CSF and found this on the same page.

No one else other than flipped scum has claimed any kind of protective, so I think CSF’s very likely town.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I remember thinking save the dragons (ydrasse) and frozen angel (firebringer) were probably unaligned because they had that heated convo about dragons not wanting to learn mech. I still think fb is solar. Really not sure who the last lunar is

This was my reason for thinking Firebringer couldn't be Lunar

I'm kinda running out of options though. And I already thought STD didn't make sense as scum period for that interaction, and was wrong. That makes me unwilling to rule out Firebringer as Lunar from the interaction. I don't think anything FA did makes the slot unlikely Lunar. I don’t think anything Firebringer has done makes him unlikely Lunar. It's just the STD interaction that I've already read incorrectly once, and so with limited options for Lunar, I feel as though that could be the weak point in my thinking at the moment.

Regardless I think Firebringer is likely to flip any flavor of scum so it's not hugely relevant. But still!

I was just rummaging through my ISO and found this fun post that might provide some context to your post

And while I was there I also found this post

I get that you really want to talk about that specific read
I don't agree with your reasoning and think getting into it at detail with you specifically wouldn't actually be productive at this time
I think I'd rather talk about other reads at the moment and we can come back to that one if that's alright
Preferably with more people involved in that discussion

[Cat Scratch Fever]

don't give me this bullshit

fucking hell

These two posts are in response to professotic, not FA

I believe it's obvious that STD is legitimately angry with FA
I don't believe this disqualifies FA from being STD's partner

I don't personally feel confident sorting at all based on the STD interactions, because I already confidently read STD as town based on them and was wrong. So I'm looking for other evidence that suggests FA/Firebringer wouldn't be Lunar, and I'm not convinced there's anything else substantial to back that idea up.

I think that's fair. I've recently become more wary of clearing people based on 1 associative

Many people have at least one interaction or another around flipped lunar that makes them somewhat unlikely to be Lunar. In the spirit of the PoE list, i can compile a separate list when I get home with reasons each person is slightly more/less likely Lunar and see where that gets us

[T-Bone]

I'm pretty certain it's against the rules to discuss reasons for replacing out?

Where is that against the rules? I’m pretty sure it isn’t - not on MS anyway.

I was pretty sure this was a thing but I now can't find it

Yo T-Bone could you weigh in on this pls

I can't weigh in on rules when I am a player.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Ahh. News to me, but that's fair. Meg makes it clear anyway

[T-Bone]

I agree that Magician and T-Bone are not Solar. If you remove me from the Solar list because of no NK that first noon, the list of Solar is really just:

PPF
Enchant
Firebringer

I think this is correct.

[T-Bone]

Like for me I'm weighing whether I want to finally find out what MMR'S deal was, or trust in thinking Nancy has been town enough. And that also means saying goodbye to a town read I've held for the whole game.

[Firebringer]

all i hope from this game is that TBone wasn't converted.
cause otherwise i think we lose to that.

Tbone too townie for his own good imo

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I'll go ahead and add:

Cat Scratch Fever is not Lunar

The evidence that persuades me of this is CSF's immediate suspicion of Radical Rat. I think there are clear hints in CSF's early posting that she found Radical Rat in particular scummy for their claim. I think this suspicion only makes sense when you consider that CSF is a town-aligned protective role. (In other words, if CSF were a Lunar Guardian or something, I don't think her suspicion of RR looks the way it does.)

These are quotes showing CSF having a particular early interest in RR and their claim:

UNVOTE:

Okay, I'll buy that. Response was fast enough for there not to have been deliberation, and it also explains why you were on mastina/Meuh in the first place.

Which also means Meuh is 99% likely to be Town, and I owe mastina an apology...

Not sure what this does for the rest of my reads yet.

Are you thinking Mastina is likely town because scum tried to kill her?

Given there was no kill, do you feel comfortable outing your doc target Rat?

Here's CSF pretty clearly showing suspicion of RR repeatedly rather early on:

My list of people who are fairly likely to be scum at the moment, either aligned with MMR or not, and therefore who I'd love to vote today:

Radical Rat
Enchant
Toogeloo
Furtiveglance

VOTE: furtiveglance

Over the night I also had mastina, Firebringer and unwnd as potential scum, but I think all three have interactions that make them unlikely to be partnered with MMR

I'm okay with the other 3 names in the list

But what about furtive's last minute push to swing the vote onto MMR?

My list of people who are fairly likely to be scum at the moment, either aligned with MMR or not, and therefore who I'd love to vote today:

Radical Rat
Enchant
Toogeloo
Furtiveglance

VOTE: furtiveglance

Didn't RR claim a doctor like role and no one died? Yet you still want to lim them?

~Titus

I don't think that makes them town in multiball. I think it's a bit suspicious how Rat didn't come out of the gate announcing their doc target. T-Bone is also an interesting target given he wasn't on that final MMR wagon

But mechanically I don’t see what scum were doing.

If MMR wanted to look better on a PPF flip, I'm kind of confused why they didn't push PPF?

Mastina/Yume/RR/PPF => assume all town why no RR dead

I think RR has a decent chance of being scum.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I ALSO think that if CSF were a Lunar Guardian, it would have been a very large risk on both N1 and N3 to not target Ydrasse.