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Post Post #850 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:24 pm

Post by shiki »

there was a wagon on not known 15 when there was a counterclaim

but then enchant dropped the counterclaim

so now there is only one cop claim
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Post Post #851 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:24 pm

Post by beeboy »

In post 846, MathBlade wrote:
In post 845, shiki wrote:
In post 839, MathBlade wrote:If anyone can, please give a two second version of why each wagon exists. I don’t care if you support it or not, but that history would help.
marashu wagon exists because not known 15 (non-cced cop) wanted it and asked for a readslist - marashu has been working on this for two days now i guess?

the votes on narrow parking were largely because narrow parking’s reaction to the cop claims i believe
And why exactly did NK15 claim cop?

And why is the other wagon not on NK15?

I don’t see how a third wagon flows from that.
Why would I want to vote a cop claim? Like regardless of how I feel about them pushing random claims.
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Post Post #852 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:24 pm

Post by Freedom »

In post 841, shiki wrote:
In post 836, MathBlade wrote:
In post 825, Freedom wrote:
In post 799, Roden wrote:Btw, it should be evident by now that the Doctor not claiming is good for scum, otherwise they'd fake claim by now it if it would put them in a favorable position.
I agree.
It does give scum a good fakeclaim for later.
Though, could it be possible that the Doctor is inactive?
Is there an active/inactive mechanic?

I kinda feel like I am missing something major here.
pretty sure freedom meant inactive as in not currently posting
Yeah.
This is what I meant.
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Post Post #853 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:24 pm

Post by Enchant »

In post 846, MathBlade wrote:
In post 845, shiki wrote:
In post 839, MathBlade wrote:If anyone can, please give a two second version of why each wagon exists. I don’t care if you support it or not, but that history would help.
marashu wagon exists because not known 15 (non-cced cop) wanted it and asked for a readslist - marashu has been working on this for two days now i guess?

the votes on narrow parking were largely because narrow parking’s reaction to the cop claims i believe
And why exactly did NK15 claim cop?

And why is the other wagon not on NK15?

I don’t see how a third wagon flows from that.
Because NK15 hoped for GA+Engineer chain.

Because it's suicidal.

wha
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Post Post #854 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:26 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 847, shiki wrote:
In post 840, MathBlade wrote:I guess since no one is on I will give a general thoughts dump.

With 4 group scum in the game (based on the setup above) the game becomes much easier to solve after 4 elims.

Assuming there is a game after 4 elims then one of the elims HAS to be in town or Bug. After 5 there must be at least one on town.

It can generally be assumed that a NK is on town (or Bug).

Using this work backwards to correct mistakes.

Based on the VC I linked I have a possible theory but want to see what other people do

UNVOTE:
3 groupscum - the traitor doesn’t actually count towards win condition i believe

hmm
Doesn’t matter for counting backwards

Once there are five deaths one has to be town or bug.
Assume not. Then 5 scum exist. This is logically impossible.

Then you’re working off facts.

It’s why almost any cop claim in a flipless gets elimmed eventually. It’s really counter intuitive but then it allows someone to say on like D3-D4 well before elo go “Hey I am the cop elim me and (results)”

Then either A) Person is town and info is true
Or B) scum and not true

It drastically reduces worlds people are in.

However then we have to elim the cop too to stop scum claiming cop and floating.

I know it’s really against the grain but eventually elimming all cops/PRs is really protown in flipless.

Then scum have to claim VT to survive and gives us more likely clean info.
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Post Post #855 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:26 pm

Post by beeboy »

I just looked at the setup and it's weird...
Town is so powerful in this setup but also like, this ratio is so bad for us lmao 10:4:1 where the 1 can side with scum.
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Post Post #856 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:27 pm

Post by Freedom »

In post 853, Enchant wrote:
In post 846, MathBlade wrote:
In post 845, shiki wrote:
In post 839, MathBlade wrote:If anyone can, please give a two second version of why each wagon exists. I don’t care if you support it or not, but that history would help.
marashu wagon exists because not known 15 (non-cced cop) wanted it and asked for a readslist - marashu has been working on this for two days now i guess?

the votes on narrow parking were largely because narrow parking’s reaction to the cop claims i believe
And why exactly did NK15 claim cop?

And why is the other wagon not on NK15?

I don’t see how a third wagon flows from that.
Because NK15 hoped for GA+Engineer chain.

Because it's suicidal.

wha
Why did NK15 want that then?
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Post Post #857 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:27 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 849, shiki wrote:
In post 846, MathBlade wrote:
In post 845, shiki wrote:
In post 839, MathBlade wrote:If anyone can, please give a two second version of why each wagon exists. I don’t care if you support it or not, but that history would help.
marashu wagon exists because not known 15 (non-cced cop) wanted it and asked for a readslist - marashu has been working on this for two days now i guess?

the votes on narrow parking were largely because narrow parking’s reaction to the cop claims i believe
And why exactly did NK15 claim cop?

And why is the other wagon not on NK15?

I don’t see how a third wagon flows from that.
i am not sure i follow

why would there be a wagon on a cop who is not counterclaimed (anymore)
There are two wagons now. Neither NK15

I’d expect two wagons it’s a weird situation.

I will have to review that
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Post Post #858 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:28 pm

Post by Freedom »

Why should there be a wagon on the unCCed Engineer claim?
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Post Post #859 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:29 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 853, Enchant wrote:
In post 846, MathBlade wrote:
In post 845, shiki wrote:
In post 839, MathBlade wrote:If anyone can, please give a two second version of why each wagon exists. I don’t care if you support it or not, but that history would help.
marashu wagon exists because not known 15 (non-cced cop) wanted it and asked for a readslist - marashu has been working on this for two days now i guess?

the votes on narrow parking were largely because narrow parking’s reaction to the cop claims i believe
And why exactly did NK15 claim cop?

And why is the other wagon not on NK15?

I don’t see how a third wagon flows from that.
Because NK15 hoped for GA+Engineer chain.

Because it's suicidal.

wha
I am more tempted to believe a counter claim.

I don’t see how any of that follows.

I guess I will have to ISO NK 15 later
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Post Post #860 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:30 pm

Post by Freedom »

But there's no CC now.
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Post Post #861 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:32 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 858, Freedom wrote:Why should there be a wagon on the unCCed Engineer claim?
Because real cop may be hiding

I think NK15 should be sorted and analyzed.

If NK15 seems town then we can back off but that doesn’t add up how he’s both hunting a cop and a cop
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Post Post #862 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:41 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 855, beeboy wrote:I just looked at the setup and it's weird...
Town is so powerful in this setup but also like, this ratio is so bad for us lmao 10:4:1 where the 1 can side with scum.
It actually can be really powerful at the end game.

The beginning of the game is raw instinct.

As elims happen you build a narrative.

Then you confirm that narrative with elims.

We get NKs of conf town and then can apply them looking at VCs and wagon movements

It’s more about treating the game as a replace in each day.

It’s definitely going to hurt your brain if not used to it but it is doable
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Post Post #863 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:44 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I gotta go Crit Role break is over but mainly I can support leaving NK15’s likely bogus cop claim to D3-D4 but then probably ask him to info dump along with any CCs.

Then after D3/D4 we elim all cop claims. I will do math later to figure out which.

Depends on this freezing thing.
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Post Post #864 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:44 pm

Post by Freedom »

In post 861, MathBlade wrote:
In post 858, Freedom wrote:Why should there be a wagon on the unCCed Engineer claim?
Because real cop may be hiding

I think NK15 should be sorted and analyzed.

If NK15 seems town then we can back off but that doesn’t add up how he’s both hunting a cop and a cop
I see.
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Post Post #865 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:48 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 850, shiki wrote:there was a wagon on not known 15 when there was a counterclaim

but then enchant dropped the counterclaim

so now there is only one cop claim
Cool

To me I see no cop claims then.

Anyone who is a cop claim on D3/D4 with results and push your own elim.
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Post Post #866 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:59 pm

Post by shiki »

i really don’t think we have elims to give for things like ‘push your own elim’

like we are working with very very few misses
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Post Post #867 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 6:08 pm

Post by Enchant »

If there's real Engineer who didn't CC he threw and i don't care to win this game then.
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Post Post #868 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 6:29 pm

Post by FakeGod »

I think MathBlade is scum.
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Post Post #869 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 6:36 pm

Post by MathBlade »

You’re welcome to think so but it’s kinda silly.

I mean if I am right and NK15 is not cop then my theory is correct and just wait on real cop to claim after results. Protown.
If I am wrong and NK15 is cop and lives and gets results then that is protown.
If I am wrong and NK15 is cop and dies then no worse than when I voiced the suggestion.

So I mean sure go ahead and push me. I have a good long chunk of experience in F2F flipless so I mean go for it.

Your premise is false
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Post Post #870 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 6:40 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 866, shiki wrote:i really don’t think we have elims to give for things like ‘push your own elim’

like we are working with very very few misses
It’s why I have to number crunching later

If cop wants to be really conservative D2 works.

The main thing is to build a block and work together and not get bogged in mech.
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Post Post #871 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:08 pm

Post by Not Known 15 »

In post 861, MathBlade wrote:
In post 858, Freedom wrote:Why should there be a wagon on the unCCed Engineer claim?
Because real cop may be hiding

I think NK15 should be sorted and analyzed.

If NK15 seems town then we can back off but that doesn’t add up how he’s both hunting a cop and a cop
Yeah this is not how it works in this setup. Cop always claims Day One, and counterclaiming right away is mandatory if you are the cop(or scum who doesn't want an uncc'd cop). Any later cop claims are scum claims. This ship has sailed. I am already confirmed cop now.
Now we need the coroner to claim to get another conftown or a 1v1(or 1v2).
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Post Post #872 (ISO) » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:02 am

Post by MathBlade »

And the reason this plan doesn’t work on D2 is because….?

It feels like you’re either sold something in a prior game that is false or you’re cop hunting versus playing mafia.
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Post Post #873 (ISO) » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:07 am

Post by Not Known 15 »

In post 872, MathBlade wrote:And the reason this plan doesn’t work on D2 is because….?
Flipless.
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Post Post #874 (ISO) » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:12 am

Post by MathBlade »

In post 873, Not Known 15 wrote:
In post 872, MathBlade wrote:And the reason this plan doesn’t work on D2 is because….?
Flipless.
No shit.

Cop claims D2 with result. The cop is uncc’d and therefore that and a result is true
Why doesn’t that work on D2?

Yes it’s flipless but unless someone does something silly like claim cop on D1 it’s inherently better D2 for reasons already explained.
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