House of the Dragon - Game Over!


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Post Post #4700 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:42 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I made a post in the supporters PT ISO digging on Dann, here's what I had said

Spoiler: GL post on Dann ISO
Andante/fireisred - I think is spewed town by Dann, early push doesn't feel like scum trying to bus/distance, especially 71 strikes me as Dann frustrated that town is being townread, which means small town points to Datisi here too, especially since Dann didn't follow up on his reply.

Contrast with 210 which kinda gives me a S/S vibe, although that might just be me being biased. 214 also fits a "explain to the thread why my buddy is townie" profile if I'm just running with the FB scumread

278 is kinda pockety, more good feelings towards Dats here

nothing in the first argument with LLD makes me think unaligned

617 kinda gave me a townvibe when I first saw that post not knowing Dann's alignment, I think the ultimate goal with it was to just sound town, but now that I'm scrutinizing it more closely knowing he's mafia it feels a little too tentative to give a read on LLD there, I think if she's town and he's afraid to get on her bad side he's probably faking more of a TR? Why specifically call it out as NAI? vaguely partnery

812 again one of those posts where the smart/reasonable side of me thinks is probably NAI if I'm being totally rigorous but my heart wants to say this is a S-S interaction with FB

842 I think the one takeaway I feel good about from this post without trying to dig too deep into WIFOM is there's a scum in LLD/FB, if not both, because they're in his "nebulous" null tier with two flipped townies (three if you count VPB as well) and I am sure he puts at least one scumbud in that tier

1230 - now he wants LLD on the council? Why does he do this if she is town? +++scumpoints for LLD here, I have a hard time seeing this as anything but agendapost

1430 - again with a random soft poke at FB, this is a pattern by this point and if I had no respect for Dann's scum game, like if he were a newbie, I'd say this is definitely distancing but idk, feels almost too obvious? If FB is town, is he really a slot worth chipping away at at this juncture in the game?

1705 - I'd be very impressed with Dann if Datisi is scum here, I think it'd be pretty weird to ask a buddy if they think another buddy should be TRing them, I rarely see that kind of dynamic and feels more like distancing and sucking up to a townie

3073 - both FB's post and Dann's reply just feels so lifeless to me here? It's like they feel obligated to talk to each other but neither is demonstrating a ton of Real Drive to sort each other, in Dann's case we know why but this is just kinda dismissive if FB is town

I still think LLD being bit of a lurksack but then showing up exactly when Dann writes a huge case on her specifically just to argue with it, and do virtually nothing else, is pretty scummy timing from LLD

that's all I got for now, I don't see a ton wrt his associatives to furtive, drapion, Roden that stood out as particularly noteworthy or indicative. there's a couple points of furtive shade but I could see it either way. he actually doesn't engage with Drapion at all, which is a lil odd but could also see that going either way (one trick I try to do as scum sometimes is completely ignore a townie so my buddies can try to paint us as partnered if/when I go down)
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Post Post #4701 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:43 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 4698, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 4697, Firebringer wrote:ill let mastina dorp all the details on night actions.
she seemed like she wanted the honors in council chat
Yeah please do, if we have a town clear courtesy of doc that would be really useful
isnt ur theory theres scum on council.
i.e like myself.
how does the night actions help u get a clear.
I knew the actions.
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his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #4702 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:45 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 4701, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4698, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 4697, Firebringer wrote:ill let mastina dorp all the details on night actions.
she seemed like she wanted the honors in council chat
Yeah please do, if we have a town clear courtesy of doc that would be really useful
isnt ur theory theres scum on council.
i.e like myself.
how does the night actions help u get a clear.
I knew the actions.
Information is information.
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Post Post #4703 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:45 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 4701, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4698, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 4697, Firebringer wrote:ill let mastina dorp all the details on night actions.
she seemed like she wanted the honors in council chat
Yeah please do, if we have a town clear courtesy of doc that would be really useful
isnt ur theory theres scum on council.
i.e like myself.
how does the night actions help u get a clear.
I knew the actions.
Point is I can't think of a scenario in which the council somehow knows something the mafia don't, so you may as well out what happened to the whole game.
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Post Post #4704 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:46 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 4702, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 4701, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4698, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 4697, Firebringer wrote:ill let mastina dorp all the details on night actions.
she seemed like she wanted the honors in council chat
Yeah please do, if we have a town clear courtesy of doc that would be really useful
isnt ur theory theres scum on council.
i.e like myself.
how does the night actions help u get a clear.
I knew the actions.
Information is information.
that doesn't answer how it whatever result becomes a clear when u think theres a plant in the council who would know what actions exist and thus can work around them pretty easily.
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #4705 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:46 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

despite my fighting with him last night, I don't think I'll be voting furtive today
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #4706 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:47 pm

Post by Firebringer »

what if i call u a big stupid doody head.
will that change ur mind GL?
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #4707 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:50 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

you'd have much better odds if you try to flatter me and butter me up :]

but nah, it just feels too much like bait here. I'll go for Drapion probably, maybe Enchant, but not furtive. I think his posts today have felt townie, especially , it's very hard for me to imagine the world where scum writes that post.
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Post Post #4708 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:52 pm

Post by Firebringer »

idk i think drapion more likely to flip town here and we all have egg on our faces than furtive. Like much higher.
Drapion doesn't make sense, but theres a weird consistency to them. I mean he jumped left and right so fast ur like 'idgi how this developed at all', but theres some consistency in what he says that if i squint hard enough. Almost seems like true development of reads. I have to squint very hard tho.
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #4709 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:52 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 4704, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4702, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 4701, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4698, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 4697, Firebringer wrote:ill let mastina dorp all the details on night actions.
she seemed like she wanted the honors in council chat
Yeah please do, if we have a town clear courtesy of doc that would be really useful
isnt ur theory theres scum on council.
i.e like myself.
how does the night actions help u get a clear.
I knew the actions.
Information is information.
that doesn't answer how it whatever result becomes a clear when u think theres a plant in the council who would know what actions exist and thus can work around them pretty easily.
Just say what happened. Why wait for mastina at this point
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Post Post #4710 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:54 pm

Post by Firebringer »

because im scum duh.
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #4711 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:55 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 4708, Firebringer wrote:idk i think drapion more likely to flip town here and we all have egg on our faces than furtive. Like much higher.
Drapion doesn't make sense, but theres a weird consistency to them. I mean he jumped left and right so fast ur like 'idgi how this developed at all', but theres some consistency in what he says that if i squint hard enough. Almost seems like true development of reads. I have to squint very hard tho.
I do think Drapion at times has felt like a real sorting mind behind his posts and reads, I was TRing him up until today and now I'm forced to expand my scum pool a lil bit

I want to check on his Dann progression myself tho cause I do think Datisi may have a point that the scumread/vote on Dann doesn't jive with the rest of his stated reads, and maybe this is unfair but I almost think he was a little
too
consistent with the "VP/GL share alignment" read, I'm a little skeptical town doesn't want to hold onto their previous gamestate view & scumreads there and try to consider a world where I am still scum even if VPB is town.

the whole framing of "Dann scum if GL/VPB town" doesn't really feel like a totally organic thought process either, like why do the three of us have that relationship
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #4712 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:00 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 4711, GuiltyLion wrote:the whole framing of "Dann scum if GL/VPB town" doesn't really feel like a totally organic thought process either, like why do the three of us have that relationship
this and how his mind flipped to me having to be scum. Maybe i sort of see Unowen/FB has to have one scum but he been just throwing me in scum pools and i have no idea how he gets this. It just seems like an aggro read to me in that ive been rude to him so he scumreads me. Like he even said one of my wolf tells is me being a douche or something like that.

like Okay....
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #4713 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:03 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4559, fireisredsir wrote:aight i prob want to go furtive or drap today then personally
I prefer furtive.
VOTE: furtiveglance
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Post Post #4714 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:04 pm

Post by mastina »

(will talk once vcat off kao_
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Post Post #4715 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:10 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

If Datisi's checks are all legit, the gamestate doesn't make too much sense to me. Maybe Roden and Firebringer yeah, but who else? I'm townreading too many people, and it's making me think Datisi is clearing his teammates (or one teammate at least)
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Post Post #4716 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:12 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

I can see that I'm getting voted for. I know that Enchant has an open challenge towards me, which I'm considering. So does Drapion I think. If I was Mafia I would have already accepted one, just on the off case I can smoke a town before being voted.
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Post Post #4717 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:12 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

Off chance*
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Post Post #4718 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4564, GuiltyLion wrote:if all of my townreads are town then the POE is incredibly incredibly narrow and that is worrying me but I am not sure what to do
I mean.

Last night confirmed that the entirety of the town council is town. Shea town, Firebringer town, fireisredsir town, Datisi town, me town, Titus town.
The result on LLD is town--given Datisi town, that is absolute.

That's 7/13 as conftown right now.

Which, yes, means the scum pool is quite narrow--but when scum have been denied a seat on the council the entire game, them's the breaks.

There's 3 scum in 6 names.

{Roden, UNOwen, GuiltyLion, ProfessorDrapion, furtiveglance, Enchant}.

We basically have an autowin here.

But that said, I think Drapion is town here.
I lean town on Roden, too.

So that leaves four scum in {UNOwen, GuiltyLion, furtiveglance, Enchant}.
As you are in that pool, you naturally don't like it.

But that pool is absolute.

The seven conftown are conftown.
We have three scum left.
And that's three scum for six slots and you are a candidate.

My preference is furtiveglance > UNOwen = GuiltyLion > Enchant > Roden > ProfessorDrapion.
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Post Post #4719 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm

Post by mastina »

(cat back, will continue when she gone again)_
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Post Post #4720 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:20 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 4718, mastina wrote:
In post 4564, GuiltyLion wrote:if all of my townreads are town then the POE is incredibly incredibly narrow and that is worrying me but I am not sure what to do
I mean.

Last night confirmed that the entirety of the town council is town. Shea town, Firebringer town, fireisredsir town, Datisi town, me town, Titus town.
The result on LLD is town--given Datisi town, that is absolute.

That's 7/13 as conftown right now.

Which, yes, means the scum pool is quite narrow--but when scum have been denied a seat on the council the entire game, them's the breaks.

There's 3 scum in 6 names.

{Roden, UNOwen, GuiltyLion, ProfessorDrapion, furtiveglance, Enchant}.

We basically have an autowin here.

But that said, I think Drapion is town here.
I lean town on Roden, too.

So that leaves four scum in {UNOwen, GuiltyLion, furtiveglance, Enchant}.
As you are in that pool, you naturally don't like it.

But that pool is absolute.

The seven conftown are conftown.
We have three scum left.
And that's three scum for six slots and you are a candidate.

My preference is furtiveglance > UNOwen = GuiltyLion > Enchant > Roden > ProfessorDrapion.
1) No
2) What, no
3) This makes no sense

Seriously though:
It isn't possible that a result confirms the entire council as Town. I can think of a scenario in which scum could play suboptimally (i.e. lose 1 nightkill) in order to gain towncred, which I'm guessing is what you're talking about (as in the council all agreed to some night action which prevented a death and scum on the council playing optimally would make a different choice).
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Post Post #4721 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:20 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 4627, Enchant wrote:You know what actually

Challenge: Roden
Challenge: fireisredsir
Challenge: Thestatusquo
Challenge: Unowen
Challenge: GuiltyLion
Challenge: Firebringer
Challenge: Datisi
Challenge: ProfessorDrapion
Challenge: furtiveglance
Accept
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Post Post #4722 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:23 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

@mastina, my dislike of the gamestate is really much less that I am in the POE and more that I don't think any of furtive/Drap/UNOwen are slam dunk scum and that is making me nervous.

The council is only conftown if Datisi is town, and FB isn't really confirmed in any universe. I really hope the game is as simple as you think it is, but with each green check I am getting progressively more anxious that it is not
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Post Post #4723 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:23 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 4569, ProfessorDrapion wrote:@Mastina
Who’s your wolf team solve?
Well definitely furtiveglance.

Beyond that, not sure.

I think that GuiltyLion is actually still scum, trying to do his best to carry the team.

Beyond that, I think that UNOwen is scum, too.

Is there any issue with the team just being those three?
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Post Post #4724 (ISO) » Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:24 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I would also argue that Drapion should go first over furtive simply for smoking Baltar. I don't like this furtive/Enchant duel that just happened but let's see where that goes.
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