Gnosia Game over!

[shiki]

[shiki]

guess fakegod is just going to ignore 714

[shiki]

I think Coroner will be shot if he claims because out of the two claimed roles (Cop and Coroner), Guardian Angel will likely protect the Cop because it is a much stronger role. Therefore, Mafia will shoot the Coroner who will have no protection.

any attempt at optimizing via nash equilibrium going to find that this probably isn’t absolutely correct thought process for either side but discussing game theory likely to take us even further from the end goal here

[shiki]

also it kinda feels like freedom just agrees with whoever has just posted about mech stuff which is kinda ???

[shiki]

also it kinda feels like freedom just agrees with whoever has just posted about mech stuff which is kinda ???

also freedom aware the guardian angel can’t claim pointing it out at one point

and then saying the mafia are likely to try to kill the ga or engineer is …???

[shiki]

meh 2.5 days to deadline 4 likely replacements needed (well 1 definite 3 likely)

[Not Known 15]

It seems I'll have to decide the freeze. Just give me a small bit of time...

[FakeGod]

guess fakegod is just going to ignore 714

I used to engage in EV calculations for possible game scenarios such as the one you brought up, but nowadays I simply don't have the time nor the energy. I'm too old.

Methinks assumptions you made in your scenario are unlikely to happen, but alas, I cannot offer up a satisfactory response to your post. My apologies.

[shiki]

It seems I'll have to decide the freeze. Just give me a small bit of time...

i am fairly willing to sheep outside of a few slots

don’t really know how to sort in current state

[shiki]

It seems I'll have to decide the freeze. Just give me a small bit of time...

i am fairly willing to sheep outside of a few slots

don’t really know how to sort in current state

it’s like

we are heavily incentivized to find absolute most likely mafia today

but yeah dunno how

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Marashu

[shiki]

VOTE: marashu

I forget if I said this before but right now I have NK15, shiki, Roden, Enchant as town.

kinda think this is 4 towns tho

[shiki]

also obviously noone end day without claim et cetera can wait for replacements anyway

it’s not like we have no time but it’s low enough where i like

want to do ~something~

kinda wary about the pressure from fakegod but eh not enough so

[Roden]

I apologize, Roden. I'm frustrated that you are not seeing what I'm seeing, so I'm going to try to explain my thoughts as clearly as I can.

I think Coroner will be shot if he claims because out of the two claimed roles (Cop and Coroner), Guardian Angel will likely protect the Cop because it is a much stronger role. Therefore, Mafia will shoot the Coroner who will have no protection.

You're assuming that:

1) Doctor doesn't get CC'd

2) Gnosia would prefer to play in a game state with four confirmed crew (Engineer, Doctor, Guard Duty) while we play Follow The Cop

3) Gnosia see Doctor as a bigger threat than hunting for the GA

4) The entire Gnosia team doesn't understand the set up and play this extremely suboptimally

If you actually think all of the above is true...then what is the issue? If Doctor isn't CC'd and gets killed tonight, that's an extra day that we can play Follow The Cop. And if it's confirmed that the Gnosia team don't know how to play this set up, then it greatly reduces the PoE for the Engineer to check people at night while also reducing the PoE for us to scum hunt during the Day.

[Enchant]

VOTE: marashu

[Freedom]

also it kinda feels like freedom just agrees with whoever has just posted about mech stuff which is kinda ???

also freedom aware the guardian angel can’t claim pointing it out at one point

and then saying the mafia are likely to try to kill the ga or engineer is …???

Do you think that the Gnosia can't hunt for PRs?
If they figure out who the GA is, they'd NK them.

[shiki]

also it kinda feels like freedom just agrees with whoever has just posted about mech stuff which is kinda ???

also freedom aware the guardian angel can’t claim pointing it out at one point

and then saying the mafia are likely to try to kill the ga or engineer is …???

Do you think that the Gnosia can't hunt for PRs?
If they figure out who the GA is, they'd NK them.

well yes the guardian angel would be top priority nightkill for the gnosia if they figured out

hmhmhm

[shiki]

mmmmmmmmm nevermind what i was saying there for now i think

[shiki]

who are the most suspicious to you (freedom) right now?

[FakeGod]

You're assuming that:

1) Doctor doesn't get CC'd

2) Gnosia would prefer to play in a game state with four confirmed crew (Engineer, Doctor, Guard Duty) while we play Follow The Cop

3) Gnosia see Doctor as a bigger threat than hunting for the GA

4) The entire Gnosia team doesn't understand the set up and play this extremely suboptimally.

I just don't see why mafia would bother CC'ing Coroner or "play in a game state with four confirms", when they can just shoot the Coroner.

I think mafia would kill un CC'd Coroner over hunting for GA. They have a 1/9 shot of hitting GA (14 players remaining tonight, 3 of them scum, 1 cop claim, 1 Coroner claim), and 100% of killing the Coroner who is not counterclaimed and is publicly known to be town.

Your last point makes an assumption that your way of playing this setup is the optimal way. Perhaps you can show me in postgame why, but I unfortunately fail to see your points.

[Marashu]

It seems I'll have to decide the freeze. Just give me a small bit of time...

VOTE: Marashu

Cool. It's follow the cop right now anyway so I really don't mind. We probably have plenty of time before replacements, so what would you like from me for now? Character claim? Full claim? You can go back a page to see where I'm at with reads, nothing's really changed.

[Marashu]

I apologize, Roden. I'm frustrated that you are not seeing what I'm seeing, so I'm going to try to explain my thoughts as clearly as I can.

I think Coroner will be shot if he claims because out of the two claimed roles (Cop and Coroner), Guardian Angel will likely protect the Cop because it is a much stronger role. Therefore, Mafia will shoot the Coroner who will have no protection.

You're assuming that:

1) Doctor doesn't get CC'd

2) Gnosia would prefer to play in a game state with four confirmed crew (Engineer, Doctor, Guard Duty) while we play Follow The Cop

3) Gnosia see Doctor as a bigger threat than hunting for the GA

4) The entire Gnosia team doesn't understand the set up and play this extremely suboptimally

If you actually think all of the above is true...then what is the issue? If Doctor isn't CC'd and gets killed tonight, that's an extra day that we can play Follow The Cop. And if it's confirmed that the Gnosia team don't know how to play this set up, then it greatly reduces the PoE for the Engineer to check people at night while also reducing the PoE for us to scum hunt during the Day.

Roden gets it

[Roden]

You're assuming that:

1) Doctor doesn't get CC'd

2) Gnosia would prefer to play in a game state with four confirmed crew (Engineer, Doctor, Guard Duty) while we play Follow The Cop

3) Gnosia see Doctor as a bigger threat than hunting for the GA

4) The entire Gnosia team doesn't understand the set up and play this extremely suboptimally.

I just don't see why mafia would bother CC'ing Coroner or "play in a game state with four confirms", when they can just shoot the Coroner.

I think mafia would kill un CC'd Coroner over hunting for GA. They have a 1/9 shot of hitting GA (14 players remaining tonight, 3 of them scum, 1 cop claim, 1 Coroner claim), and 100% of killing the Coroner who is not counterclaimed and is publicly known to be town.

Your last point makes an assumption that your way of playing this setup is the optimal way. Perhaps you can show me in postgame why, but I unfortunately fail to see your points.

If Gnosia don't CC the Doctor, we are playing with four conftown.

If they shoot the Doctor, then the Engineer either gets a red check and we're down to 3 conftown vs 2 scum, or the Engineer gets another green check and we're back to 4 conftown. Either scenario is auto win for town. Gnosia will never know if the GA is dead because they can't claim and we don't have flips, so we can essentially do this over and over every single day.

My way of playing the set up isn't necessarily optimal, it's just...

literally

, how you're supposed play the set up. The game this set up is based on explicitly teaches this.

Your argument doesn't make any sense at this point. You're arguing that it's bad if scum put us in auto win for free. You're arguing that Doctor shouldn't claim today because they'll just die, but also Doctor can't claim Day 2 onward because we'll just vote them out since we can't trust them. You've all but claimed that we should just ignore the Doctor, a pivotal role that is a central mechanic in this set up, because you don't understand the set up and don't think anyone should listen to the people who do have experience with the set up.

[Not Known 15]

It seems I'll have to decide the freeze. Just give me a small bit of time...

VOTE: Marashu

Cool. It's follow the cop right now anyway so I really don't mind. We probably have plenty of time before replacements, so what would you like from me for now? Character claim? Full claim? You can go back a page to see where I'm at with reads, nothing's really changed.

No I actually can't see ALL your reads.
Please provide a readslist on every single person. With detailed and through explanation on every single read.

[Marashu]

Um, ok. Sure. I'll have that for you this evening.