Mini 679 - BSG: The Basestar (Game Over!)

[Knight of Cydonia]

...What?

It's simple. Lynch Macavity today. He turns up scum. end of.
Alternatively, lynch me today, find out I am a one-shot day-scanner, then lynch Macavity.
As a role, I have expended my usefulness, and am now essentially another townie.
If I have to die to prove my worth, and Macavity's scum-dom, so be it - my task would be fulfilled.

[iamausername]

Oh, I forgot the one-shot part. That takes away the usual reasons for lynching the guilty result over lynching the claimed cop even when you think the cop is lying.

Unvote, Vote: Knight of Cydonia

[Knight of Cydonia]

Very well. Let me help the knife slide home, hmmm? Make the plunge a little easier.
Just remember this, when you finally lynch me - MacavityLock is a Number Four. He is dangerous to the alliance.

unvote; Vote Knight of Cydonia

[Flask of Pestilence]

Hmm. Patrick hasn't responded in awhile, and I haven't exactly talked to Patrick yet since I'm still at work. Didn't we essentially have two protective roles claim (a roleblocker and a jailkeeper)?

I think I'm leaning towards believing KoC for obvious reasons (I still think MacLock is scum), but I'm gonna need to discuss this with Patrick to see what he thinks.

For now a question: KoC, which "him" were you referring to in this post?:

If it makes anyone feel any better about switching to Fark from Mac - I'm scanning him. You can have your answers tomorrow.

- Incog.

[Elmo]

Do you think he's lying, Iam? Why? You didn't seem to suspect him at all before now.

Unvote

:

Grimmy

. I think we should be lynching one of those two. I would lean towards disbelieving KoC, but I'm thinking perhaps Macavity is the smart lynch either way. This would seem a very odd gambit, and we'll know immediately if KoC's lying. I think the best-worst-case is mislynching Macavity and trading 1:1. C'est enteressant. But I can't get over how much KoC seems to know when the rest of us are fumbling around in the dark.

.::] Rules [::.

Voting, Lynching and Deaths

12. On death, a player's rolename, race and affiliation will be revealed.

I held back on this earlier, but unless this is close to a no reveal game, we need some way of knowing things about dead people. I originally noted the fact that race and affiliation were distinct; I would guess that affiliation is "sort of" like alignment. At least, I would imagine scum are inclined to lie about it.

Have both of you claimed/paraphrased your affiliation, yet? (I don't think Tar ever directly did so.)

[Farkshinsoup]

Huh. So it's Mac or KoC. I'll try to look a little closer and have a vote by tomorrow morning.

[Tarhalindur]

Placeholder - I should have time to post later tonight.

[iamausername]

Do you think he's lying, Iam? Why? You didn't seem to suspect him at all before now.

Not true. See Post #507. And my question in Post #577; the reason I asked that was to see if I could catch him out claiming to have a night power when clearly everyone else's powers are used during the day. Clearly, he cottoned onto that, but as you pointed out, that still shows him up, because he'd actually already claimed his power was used at night.

That's twice he's backtracked on his claims when they were shown to be inconsistent with everyone else; the day/night power, and also the part where he originally said he knew for certain that there are two Cylon factions - Cavil's and D'Anna/Natalie's - then later claimed that this was pure speculation on his part based on the fact that his role PM says he aims for the peaceful unity of human and cylon.

I think the best-worst-case is mislynching Macavity and trading 1:1.

How is this better than the scenario where we mislynch KoC and trade 1:1?

[Elmo]

I'm probably turning in for the night. I suggest you both post your affiliations, and indeed every piece of information you possess in excruciating detail, and any arguments against each other you feel haven't been covered yet; I'll probably reread and vote tomorrow morning. I'm also going to throw out a

FoS

:

iamausername

here for no apparent reason.

Honestly, considering how this day has gone (and even in a vacuum), I struggle to think of a single reason KoC would be gambiting right now. But a whole bunch of things seem weird and inconsistent. But is there anything short of claiming scum that makes KoC the lynch over Macavity in this situation? (yawns) I'll sleep on it.

[Elmo]

Ah, those two noted. I do remember those now; I was thinking a little further back, but of course Pants was epic lurking until KoC hopped in.

The worst case of lynching KoC was that KoC was telling the truth and we've lynching a very-probably-innocent, albeit we still trade 1:1.
The worst case of lynching Macavity is that we lynch a roleblocker and trade 1:1.
Actually, I had forgotten Macavity claimed power for a minute, there. Hum. I suppose you're right, given that if one of them's scum, the other is very-probably-innocent and Macavity-town is a power role.

[forbiddanlight]

FL, why are you voting Fark?

I reiterate, this wagon sucks.

character of roleclaims. Grimmy's felt more real than fark's. If we have to choose between them, I prefer fark. Mac was getting scanned.

As for KoC's result...I don't think he's lying...just a feeling, to be honest.

Unvote, vote MacavityLock

[Flask of Pestilence]

Checking in, after skimming my initial reaction is that I'm believing KoC and MacavityLock is scum. KoC just strikes me as really sloppy rather than scummy. No doubt me or Incognito or both of us will come back with some more detail later.

Patrick.

[Elmo]

Voted based purely on feelings is pro-town and made of win!

> >

EBWOP my last: By roleblocker, of course, I mean Macavity claimed jailkeeper. Fark is the one who claimed roleblocker. Needs more sleep.

I was going to say something but have no forgotten what it was. Ah, yes. I would like both you two to post a mini-summery of your suspicions, on everyone in the game, preferably with some kind of ranking. I would be content with anything down to a sentence per person, but odds on even if we lynch right, you're both dead by day 2. So time to contribute your thoughts.

It occurs to me to wonder about the chronology of when Macavity claimed jailkeeper vs. when KoC claimed essentially-guilty on him. Humma.

Zzz.

[destructor]

.::] Vote Count [::.

MacavityLock (3)

- Tarhalindur, Flask of Pestilence, forbiddanlight

Grimmy (1)

- Rishi

No Lynch (1)

- camn
*

Knight of Cydonia (3)

- MacavityLock, iamausername, Knight of Cydonia

Not voting (4) - Farkshinsoup, andersonw, Grimmy, Elmo

Seven

votes to lynch.

The

deadline

is about 26 hours away.

[forbiddanlight]

Voted based purely on feelings is pro-town and made of win! > >

Well, I'm assuming there is a justification for the feeling that I'm too lazy to find. And I think that KoC really has no reason to lie about Macavity. Even downing a town jailkeep isn't worth one out of potentially three scum. (though there could be scum factions I guess :S?)

Also, do NOT clear KoC even if Mac flips scum. Bussing, scum factions, there are several reasons KoC could be scum even if he's telling the truth.

[camn]

...What?

It's simple. Lynch Macavity today. He turns up scum. end of.
Alternatively, lynch me today, find out I am a one-shot day-scanner, then lynch Macavity.
As a role, I have expended my usefulness, and am now essentially another townie.
If I have to die to prove my worth, and Macavity's scum-dom, so be it - my task would be fulfilled.

QFT.

UNVOTE
Vote Macavity

Mac.. do you still insist you are a #6?

c

[MacavityLock]

Hello all. Sorry I didn't have time to post much earlier. I saw KoC's result on me and then had to run to class.

Yes, I am Natalie, a Number 6 model. I'm the leader of the cylon faction looking to unite with the humans. I pretty much gave all I have in my full claim.

The only other stuff I have is what I mentioned about Number 3. Honestly, I'd still prefer to hold that back until tomorrow if I stay alive. So, here's what I ask: If the town consensus is to lynch me, just put me at a stable large amount of votes without a hammer so that I'd be lynched at deadline. I promise to check in before deadline tomorrow, and if I'm consensus lynch, then I'll post what I have. It's all flavor, so I doubt it would sway your opinions of me one way or the other.

I have no idea what KoC's purposes are in lying. I really wonder why if it's one-shot, he claimed immediately and gave up his power when the chance of actually picking someone lying would be so low. I know that if I were a townie with that power, I wouldn't claim, I'd hope that cylon model claims would come up organically, and then I'd use that power later in the game, when there are fewer cylons to choose from.

Anyway, it's obviously me or KoC today. If you do decide to lynch KoC then:
a) If KoC is town, then I guess I'd have to be tomorrow's lynch.
b) If KoC isn't town, you'll be losing a Jailkeeper.

[MacavityLock]

EBWOP:

Anyway, it's obviously me or KoC today. If you do decide to lynch KoC then:
a) If KoC is town, then I guess I'd have to be tomorrow's lynch.
b) If KoC isn't town, you'll be losing a Jailkeeper.

Sorry, that last bit didn't make sense, but you know what I mean. Mislynching me will have a higher cost of choosing wrong.

[andersonw]

First, sorry for not posting that much, I should be better now because ultimate frisbee practice is over until spring. Also, I'm posting this at midnight, and my mother is yelling at me to go to sleep, so my brain is kind of fried.

Next, Elmo's questions (although it's kind of late).

andersonw: What do you think of Iam's play? Flask's stance on Macavity? Tar's jump onto me?

Currently not that sure. I liked his play at the beginning of the game, he was trying to scumhunt, and asked a bunch of questions that mostly seemed like trying to figure out something. I can provide examples if you want, later.

Okay, my mom's in my room, and she really wants me to go to sleep now, I'll finish tomorrow if I get home before the deadline.

[Tarhalindur]

Bleh, my time today is more limited than I thought (time to comment but not reread), and I need to deal with my modded games ASAP, so I don't have time to answer any outstanding questions (I seem to recall there are some outstanding, but I've forgotten who and I don't have time for a full reread). Given the way things are going, I'll have mull over asking for replacement once day ends.

Now, for what appears to be the current debate, Macavity vs. KoC: I'm torn here. Logic dictates one response, but my gut is telling me the latter is more accurate.

Options:

Lynch Knight of Cydonia first:

- If KoC is lying: We catch a scum and (hopefully) get to keep our jailkeeper alive.
- If KoC is telling the truth: We lynch a now-vanilla and lynch MacavityScum tomorrow. Vanilla for Mafia (and a likely power role - see below) seems like a good trade in my book.

Lynch MacavityLock first:

- If KoC is lying: We lose our Jailkeeper (and probably our only protective role) and lynch KoC tomorrow. This is a fairly bad trade, especially as it leaves me wide open tonight (no "will he jailkeep Tar" WIFOM).
- If KoC is telling the truth: We mostly confirm KoC and nail a Mafia (and probably one of their power roles - see below)

Factors to take into account:

- Macavity is fairly new and he claimed Jailkeeper. I doubt that he's experienced enough to make that claim without personally having a power that can simulate it - if he is scum, I suspect he's a Mafia Roleblocker or similar.
- KoC's claimed guilty is very, very odd if he's Mafia, since he's practically doomed himself if he's wrong, especially since as far as I can tell he wasn't under heavy pressure when he first claimed the role and he does not, to the best of my knowledge, have a history of Tarhalindur-style (high-risk to the point of being suicidal) scum play.*
- KoC has the weaker claim; I have some difficulty believing that a Centurion is in the game.
- Macavity has been on my scumdar for a while, while Knight of Cydonia has not.

* - There is one situation I can think of where KoC's play makes somewhat more sense as a scum role: if he's a Mafia Traitor, he might have elected to take down the claimed protective role to give the full Mafiosos a clear shot at the jailkeeper.

I'm currently weakly inclined to take the less risky play and lynch Knight of Cydonia first, but I'm not convinced yet.

Unvote, Vote: Knight of Cydonia

I should be able to make at least one short post tomorrow, so I can switch back to MacavityLock if needed.

[camn]

Crap.

It's true.. and I am inclined to Follow Tar's lead, as crazy as he has been, with this talk of abandoning us... BUT... If KoC is lying.. and Mac IS a jailkeeper... does he not die tonight at the Mafia's hands?

Anyway .. here are the outcomes.. as far as I can see.
It seems pretty equivalent to me. Except for option E.

a) KoC is lying.

We lynch Koc,

losing 1 scum. the Scum kill Macavity, we lose a power role. Tomorrow we are down 2 (1PR, 1

scum

)

b) Koc is Lying..

we Lynch Mac

, a power role. The scum kill one of us. Maybe a PR, maybe vanilla. Tomorrow we are down 2 townies. (1PR, 1 townie)... BUT we have a clear lynch tomorrow.

c) Koc is telling the truth...

we lynch Koc

, Losing a Vanilla townie. the scum kill one of us. Maybe a PR, maybe vanilla. Tomorrow we are down 2 townies. (1 vanilla, 1 townie)... BUT we have a clear lynch tomorrow.

d) Koc is telling the truth...

we lynch Mac

, losing scum. the scum kill one of us tonight.. . maybe a PR, maybe not. We wake up tomorrow with 1 scum dead, 1 townie dead.... (1

scum

, 1 townie.)

e) KoC is confused. Maybe insane. Maybe damaged. We lynch a townie. We waste tomorrow lynching a confused townie. We are fracked.

Odds are they both die anyway. If we lynch KoC... and he is lying OR he tells the truth.... Mac is dead by tomorrow night.
So I say we lynch Mac... he has been a less-helpful player in general. And if KoC is telling the truth.. we benefit.

Plus... Athena Shot Natalie.

[MacavityLock]

camn, given the circumstances, I don't mind anything you said, except this:

So I say we lynch Mac... he has been a less-helpful player in general.

I've been less helpful than Awesome Pants/KoC? That's ridiculous.

[camn]

Maybe helpful was the wrong word.

What do you know about #3?

[camn]

Ah.. I take back the 'unhelpful' comment. I was thinking of Grimmy.
Sorry for mixing that up. I have been drinking.

But the rest stands.

c

[destructor]

Bumping vote count to next page.