Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Poorly phrased on my end.In post 644, MathBlade wrote:In post 643, MegAzumarill wrote:There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)
I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit
Post says “Assume Mala VT”In post 642, MegAzumarill wrote:
Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardlessIn post 634, MathBlade wrote:You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.
What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.
And yes a claim would be disastrous here.
For a moment assume I am truthtelling
Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT
Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3
That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.
So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.
If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that
The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”
Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur
Given the four possible responses to a claim, 2 of them aren't helpful to scum, and the odds of one of the other two are exponentially higher if Mala is town.
Additionally the raw odds of Mala being CL before any clears are taken into account is higher than the odds she is JK or Cop (By 3:2 margin)Imprefection is the spice of life.-
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MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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I mean in theory it doesn't hurt but yeah probably not worth the hassel then.In post 645, Not Known 15 wrote:
Only at first glance.In post 643, MegAzumarill wrote:There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)
I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit
If scum acts the CL dies tomorrow, then the scum dies the next, and Cult has a maximum of one person remaining.
4:1 Nightless, with a converted Cop/JK is the best they can get there.
4:1 Nightless Vanilla has a 60% town win rate.
If scum doesn't act the CL has a 50% chance to die today and a 50% chance to not die today and probably not tomorrow.
We cannot distinguish between that and T/T. This doesn't help us!Imprefection is the spice of life.-
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MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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I mean I think we just vote who we think is most likely CL and get this probability headache goneIn post 651, MegAzumarill wrote:
Poorly phrased on my end.In post 644, MathBlade wrote:In post 643, MegAzumarill wrote:There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)
I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit
Post says “Assume Mala VT”In post 642, MegAzumarill wrote:
Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardlessIn post 634, MathBlade wrote:You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.
What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.
And yes a claim would be disastrous here.
For a moment assume I am truthtelling
Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT
Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3
That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.
So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.
If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that
The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”
Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur
Given the four possible responses to a claim, 2 of them aren't helpful to scum, and the odds of one of the other two are exponentially higher if Mala is town.
Additionally the raw odds of Mala being CL before any clears are taken into account is higher than the odds she is JK or Cop (By 3:2 margin)Imprefection is the spice of life.-
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MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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Elements she/herBloopshe/her
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I'm not gonna be back before the end of the day so and I'm not gonna vote myself so
VOTE: Mala
E - 1I agree with everything Elements is posting - Papa Zito
It's scummy as fak tho - Gamma Emerald
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MathBlade He/HimTechnical SupportHe/Him
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Strategically Elements.In post 654, MegAzumarill wrote:Mathblade, between Elements and Mala which do you think is the better lim
I don’t think either is the CL so if this has to be the choice I would pick Elements here. I think an Elements flip gives more to us to solve with. I’d rather not force another claim when the only argument I see for Mala scum is she is lurking.
If I have to pick between the two it would be elements because unless someone presents an airtight case flipping Elements is the best play for town.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade-
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MathBlade He/HimTechnical SupportHe/Him
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I am kinda hoping for a flash wagon here maybe to NK15 or Roden but I don’t think anyone wants them. Those two the case is strong enough for to where a claim would be warranted but not on just “she’s lurking”.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade-
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MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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MegAzumarill She/HerJack of All TradesShe/Her
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MathBlade He/HimTechnical SupportHe/Him
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Kinda where I am at.In post 660, MegAzumarill wrote:There isn't a need for a claim I suppose so might as well avoid it.
Don't think it does as much harm as you suggest but this is still a good elim
Going to give until after work before hammering.
And btw I still consider NK15 on this wagon for analysis.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
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MathBlade He/HimTechnical SupportHe/Him
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Okay hammer without giving people a chance.
That’s sus as fuck.
Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Roden He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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MathBlade He/HimTechnical SupportHe/Him
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A chance to give a case on Mala and respond to the suggestion. You don’t just hammer out of no where.In post 664, Roden wrote:A chance for what? Elements already claimed and NK15 wanted them dead days ago. The only other option is running up Mala, and it looked like we don't want to force any more claims today.
There was absolutely no harm in waiting for people to come online.
You defending NK15 is ewwww.
Rapid hammers = bad = mafia 101
It was openly expected that I hammer.
Then despite his “bad feelings” NK15 hammers
What part of that is good?ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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MathBlade He/HimTechnical SupportHe/Him
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Further reinforces that NK15’s “bad vibes” weren’t genuine
That reads like exasperation.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Disagree on RodenIn post 663, MathBlade wrote:Okay hammer without giving people a chance.
That’s sus as fuck.
Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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MathBlade He/HimTechnical SupportHe/Him
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Why? He’s advocating for obvious scum here?In post 667, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Disagree on RodenIn post 663, MathBlade wrote:Okay hammer without giving people a chance.
That’s sus as fuck.
Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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It is now Night 2.Malakittens is being prodded, if she does not pick up her prod notice during the night phase she will be replaced for inactivity.
The deadline for Night 2 isOctober 8at7:30 PM EST. Submit night actions by PM, if applicable.
Deadline Timer: (expired on 2022-10-08 19:30:00)
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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catboi Jack of All Trades
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