Mini 702--Serum & Steel(The rust has settled/Game Over)

[Wall-E]

CF Riot: Can I get a response from you on post 307?

[ortolan]

However, I think I see what he is saying about declairing night actions after getting the serum.

I don't know if you misunderstood or simply misspoke. Maybe I'm just reading your post other than you meant it. No one should declare their night actions before they do them. It was debated whether or not they should declare night

results

, which I am against but is more plausible.

The question is does the benefit scum might be less likely to target them that night because they don't know what the serum outweigh the drawback of the fact that the recipient won't have to claim till the day after (i.e. if they are scum, giving them a chance to make something up or just say "oh hehe actually I didn't get an ability). That said, the mod said the power lasts through the night "and the next day", but I'm not quite sure what this means, presumably some abilities can only be used at night in which case they will have to be used the night following the day they are received, which leaves us with the same problem.

Also, ortolan's logic about who to synth is terrible. You don't want to synth a claimed steel or a claimed flesh, which leads to the question, who do you want to synth? You say the choice is people who haven't claimed, but this seems to advocate everyone claiming their steel/flesh status, which I would argue against. At some point, you have to throw someone in regardless of what they told you they are.

What I meant was they have both made claims and I at this point have no good reasons for doubting either of them. I think if we can get a bandwagon going to synth a different player who then can simply claim metal/flesh then we might have something else to go on.

You have no good reason to doubt anyone that claims either on D1. No matter who you bandwagon or whether they claim steel or flesh, you have equal reason to doubt/believe all of them. Simply wagoning everyone one at a time as they claim would be stupid. Taking it to the 3rd in line is no more logical than going all the way to the end.

The difference is that I *believe* both their claims, or at least have been presented no good reason to doubt them. I thought, and still do, that if we got a synth bandwagon going on someone else we might get a claim out of them. I still believe that, in keeping with Timeater's role claim, townies are more likely to be flesh than scum. Thus if we were to get another person claiming steel we should be suspicious of them, and if we get someone claiming flesh we can choose whether we believe their claim of flesh more or less than Wall-E's. That said we don't particularly need to start another synth bandwagon, because as it looks like Seraphim's being targetted for a lynch we will get a claim out of him before the day's through, which will fill my goal.

Also I've been meaning to check this for a while:

Mod: when we put someone in the mycosynth will we find out if they were metal or flesh before going in?

No you will not

coming from the idea that you

believe

that they are metal, there's no point in confirming that they are, especially by wasting a lynch.

This falls into the same category as wanting to synth Wall-E. Do you have any good reason to believe he is scum, and lying about being flesh? If not, why do you advocate wasting a mycosynth on him?

This is not the same in any way. Lynching someone you believe is metal will send the game to night for the scum to kill, while giving the town no information about that persons alignment. If we myco Wall-E, or anyone, we

know

they are now flesh. Whether or not they were before is irrelevant. I do not

believe

Wall-E is flesh like the other people were believing TE was steel. These two situations are only vaguely similar, and I believe my position is perfectly logical.

Ok, why do you not believe Wall-E's claim to be flesh? I have seen you give no good reason not to. Even if *you* apparently have a gut instinct you must give some valid justification if you expect others to go along with you.

Regarding synthing me, I suggest you do not. Wall-E is a much better choice. There is no sweet-talking. I am town, which is all you need to know to not synth me.

This does not follow... Why should we be more likely to think you are town than Wall-E,

You shouldn't. You have equally as much reason to believe him as me.

and even then why is thinking you're town enough reason not to synth you anymore than it is Wall-E?

I do not think Wall-E is town. I know that I am. Also, Wall-E said he was okay with being synthed. I am not.

What you are saying here is contradictory. You are saying Wall-E is a much better choice (than you). You say "there is no sweet-talking" (I don't understand what this relates to). Then you say we have no more reason to think you are town than Wall-E. WHY then, is Wall-E a much better choice than you?

Also, what you have said is ambiguous, are you claiming to be steel here? Otherwise why would you have any particular objection to being mycosynthed? I understand people's points about Wall-E flopping around on whether he is happy to be mycosynthed or not. It is possible (but as I already said kind of unlikely as the risks would seem to outweighh the benefits) that Wall-E is scum metal claiming flesh townie to avoid suspicion, which would explain why he is on the one hand seemingly happy to be synthed and on the other subtly trying to avoid it. However, another explanation for his flopping around is that he is simply town flesh and that, while he is town flesh and thus knows it won't hurt him to be mycosynthed, he would prefer if the mycosynth wasn't *wasted* on him. I understand this, as this is basically the same way I feel.

it seems to me, that assuming Wall-E and Timeater are telling the truth about their roles (which obviously is a big assumption),

This

is

a big assumption. Too big at this point. The rest of what you said doesn't matter to me because I do

not

believe Wall-E's flesh claim with no backing.

I don't understand why you think a flesh claim without any explicit backing is likely to be a lie. I suspect town fleshie is the most common class of people in the game, I can't see it as likely that any other combination is more prevalent. Why then, would you particularly doubt someone's claim that they fall into this category. Simply saying that they "don't back it up" seems a terrible argument, I'd hope you'd have some justification for your suspicions.

I think I should also defend Seraphim at this point. Porkens, in the above post, seems to be arguing we should lynch Seraphim because he wants to "waste the synth on Wall-E". However this is exactly the same thing that CF Riot.

Defending Sera on these grounds is defending him because Porkens is not attacking me. Whether or not Porkens is attacking me has nothing to do with Sera's alignment unless you think Porkens is my scum buddy.

I am not really "defending" him, more saying that logic of the bandwagon against him is internally inconsistent. Porkens says he is voting for him for being willing to mycosynth Wall-E. You are willing to mycosynth Wall-E, and are also voting for him, for different reasons (namely that you apparently don't believe his claim to be "town fleshie"). And to your second sentence: I believe I openly entertained the possibility in my last post that you and Porkens were scumbuddies. The fact that you are both on the same bandwagon with diametrically opposed justifications for being there gives a bit of extra support to this possibility. But be aware I'm not suggesting at this point that you and Porkens are scumbuddies, but merely entertaining the notion in light of your respective positions.

why you picking on wall-e?

I feel like it. He seemed like a good avenue to pursue upon replacing in. Also, I don't know what my quote has to do with what you said about me. (Post 309)
----
TE's post 322 is exactly why I want to Myco Wall-E.

"I feel like it" is a pretty bad justification if you want to convince people and makes you look scummy. And there is the possibility that Wall-E's flip-floppiness on being mycosynthed is evidence of his being scummy, but as I said I believe the risks of pursuing a strategy where he fakeclaimed fleshie seem to outweigh the benefits, and furthermore my alternate explanation that he is a townie not wanting to waste the mycosynth seems more plausible.

[Illumina]

Good point about Timeater's claim, ortolan. I missed that.

Regarding using the mycosynth on Wall-E: I don't have a good read one way or the other about his towniness, but I found it interesting that he was initially neutral about getting myco'd, then started to get agitated about it when multiple people started to get more realistic about doing it. Clearly if he's town, he's telling the truth about being flesh. If he's fleshie scum, it wouldn't make any sense to get defensive the way he did. Mycoing him essentially allows us to determine whether he's metal scum without any penalty (and de-metaling him in such a case). Solid source of info with no penalty = a good play, I think.

Seraphim: could you respond to the questions about your Porkens vote? In particular, why the non-committal language?

[ortolan]

Btw mod, I've been voting for Seraphim since post 225

[Timeater]

Can someone point out to me where Wall-E claimed fleshie?

[ortolan]

Post 215:

Seems suspicious is an awfully weird case.

I'm flesh, so be gentle when you lower me in that vat. I don't want to bruise a knee.

[geraintm]

Vote: geraintm

huh?
what was that for?

[Timeater]

Ahhhh I knew it was in there somewhere, couldn't find it. I guess asking for a full claim will happen after the myco'ing, right? Assuming something happens.

[Wall-E]

Nothing would happen. We'll get no information for mycosynthing anyone.

geraintm: I dislike the cut of your jib.

[geraintm]

ok, bit random there wall-e

[TonyMontana]

I say we just synth whoever we are lynching, as a fail-safe.
Imagine if we try to lynch someone only to fail, and still have good reason the next day, to believe that person to be scum. Then we would have to synth the person, wait another day, then lynch them.

We have a metal claim and a flesh claim, and people doesn't seem to wanna waste a synth on a possible flesh, nor do people wanna risk synthing a town metal.
Well, screw it then, let's just put the synth on the lynchee.

unsynth Mycosynth:Seraphim

[ortolan]

So you want to no lynch, or lynch someone else? Cause we've got a bit of a dilemma if we're gonna end up lynching the *second* most suspected person.

I think Seraphim should claim before we decide whether to synth or lynch him

[Porkens]

I say we just synth whoever we are lynching, as a fail-safe.
Imagine if we try to lynch someone only to fail, and still have good reason the next day, to believe that person to be scum. Then we would have to synth the person, wait another day, then lynch them.

You know what? This actually makes pretty good sense to me.

[Gremwell]

ortolan, I don't see why you are defending wall-e so strongly, the only proof you have to go on is that he said he was flesh and town, not even a role pm. you're so willing to take his word on the matter simply because you ASSUME from TE's pm that most townies are flesh, so by that thinking anyone who just says "hey I'm not metal" should be cleared.

It's just a case of outguess the mod, and a poor one at that. just by the law of averages town is likely to have as many if not more metals than scum have.

I guess I'm just tired of you stating that as fact and no one calling you on it.

oh and I agree with the above post

[Nicol Bolas]

Just a friendly mod reminder:

You may not throw a player into the mycosynth and lynch them in the same day.

[Porkens]

~Mod: Oh! So we can't even TRY to do both to the same person in the same evening. That's a horse of a different color. I was under the impression that if we synthed/lynched the same person, they'd be lynched if they were fleshy or de-metaled if they were steel. Well there goes that idea.

@Gremwell; I don't want to assume that the law of averages applies to metal. Don't read this as outguessing the mod but; I don't think he would assign metal randomly to both scum and town. My gut tells me that most, if not all, of the scum are metal, and the town has few, if any, metal roles. My guts been wrong before, but until proved otherwise, I'll expect a worst-case scenario and go with it.

[Wall-E]

I understand. I used a claim to try to get out of the 'lynch' of mycosynth. I hadn't really thought of things in those terms at the time. It must have been jumpy-looking? So I must assume.

Hey, this is my first time ever being right. Hear this:

It felt wrong for that 'lynch' to be wasted, because at the time, there was conjecture as to whether there were indeed any metal town at all. I worried the setup might require a myco-lynch combo to kill mafia in the lategame if we failed to myco once too many times.

Is that scummy?

I leave the conclusion unspoken.

I have since become more educated.

So, for me, tomorrow, I will vote to serum innocents. I will vote to mycosynth scumbags.

[Timeater]

Oi@ at some of you guys not recognizing the myco/lynch rule.

Nothing would happen. We'll get no information for mycosynthing anyone.

What? If we myco a steel player, we will see the results of stripping of his unkillability. If that were not the case, it would be an extremely easy out for scummer, and they could just all claim fleshie, and would not have to answer about being steel. I think its pretty obvious. Pretty sure you are misinterpreting the answer to Ort's question, which was kind of a silly one, asking if we would find out if they are metal or flesh /before/ they go in, I think the answer should be obvious - of course not. So you are just wrong in that statement.

As for the serum process tomorrow, I'm gonna have to go "STOP RIGHT THERE CRIMINAL SCUM" - I highly recommend we keep on doing the random seruming at least until the endgame. Because on the off chance Tuber is scum, and we just hurfdurf gave him the serum, we need to dedicate ourselves to the random process, so we harvest the greatest benefit from the process - higher probability of a townie receiving a power.

[Porkens]

I worried the setup might require a myco-lynch combo to kill mafia in the lategame if we failed to myco once too many times.

I, too, deeply fear this. I can only assume that the mod has taken this into consideration and wouldnt make a setup where we'd loose my miss-mycoing once or twice.

[Porkens]

As for the serum process tomorrow, I'm gonna have to go "STOP RIGHT THERE CRIMINAL SCUM" - I highly recommend we keep on doing the random seruming at least until the endgame. Because on the off chance Tuber is scum, and we just hurfdurf gave him the serum, we need to dedicate ourselves to the random process, so we harvest the greatest benefit from the process - higher probability of a townie receiving a power.

Blindly commiting to the random serum until endgame is short shighted and wrong headed. Yes, it will always have a higher probablility to be granted to town than to scum, but the effects of granting it to a scum would, theoretically, be much, much worse at endgame.

[Timeater]

Well, assuming we have a townie that is confirmed somehow, or predicting some sort of power intervention or extenuating circumstance, I suggest choice serum somewhere in the endgame process because it might be necessary. I cant see the future, and am merely hypothesizing, but I am pretty sure its a possibility.

[SpyreX]

See, by the nature of the rules, I have to believe we're looking at 1 scum metal. More than that (BP/LP scum) and we're going to be boned really, REALLY quick.

So, I'm going to be that guy. Unless you've got me believing your townosity about 95% and claim metal I want your metal gone.

See timeeater.

All in all I just want us to move forward. We've been focused so much on the serum and the myco the actual part of this that matters - the lynch - seems to be lowest priority.

[Wall-E]

So we're all in agreement. That's boring.

Mod: Hypothetical situation. We mycosynth Batman. Will you tell us whether or not Batman was steel at all, or is the mycosynth more of a guarantee that player is flesh, but we still gotta use it to be sure, and we'll never prove they were metal or flesh beforehand?

I already answered this question in post 326, but I'll answer it again. You get no knowledge of what they were before they went in, but they'll definitely be flesh coming out.

[Wall-E]

There has got to be a better way to phrase that.

[SpyreX]

I'm really thinking that the synth means jack-all until we try to lynch.

I do NOT think its going to give us any information in and of itself.