Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

[Klick]

Pagetop

[Klick]

Kyoko can you give me a more full look at your reads atm

[Klick]

I would bet the game on cat.pdf being town

Then tell me about it

[Klick]

I have a townlean on Mohab, she has a very towny vibe and I liked her vote on BloodBOt after they seemed completely fine with the coalition of active players. I think that in this stage of the game most people would want themselves in the coalition, later there will be compromise, so the acceptance is strange. Hutmeils coalition now means 3/5 people needed have the same coalition 'just so we can move forward' which is sus. I think we can win day 1 but i dont think that will happen if we decide our coalition off of who posted in the first 2 pages.

FYI this is the exact reason i voted bloodbot.

that's also why I sussed bloodbot cat also mirrored my feeling on hut
definitely have a good feeling on cat.gif rn

Like this isn't exactly a hardball opinion for scum to fake
Bloodb0t's play was weird af and really easy to see as scummy

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma with the takes I'm not vibing with at all

First of all, we're voting in the coalition today. With 30% chance of hitting scum in the coalition and 12.5% chance of hitting scum outside of it, voting outside the coalition is a very poor choice.

Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are both the obvious people to sus at this point but neither of them are who should be focused on right now. Hutmeil's content that isn't the coalition vote just feels genuine to me.

All in all your catchup has a lot of empty statements and things you could easily double-back on and I read it as really scummy. But that conflicts with my townread on Hyped.

Mala I'm interested in your read on Gamma's replace-in

VOTE: Klick

This is scumclaim, Klick seems to be informed that there's exactly 1 maf in coalition, not 2.

I believe Gamma is a better vote.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I believe voting inside the Coalition is correct.

idk id this is a GOOD reason to TR penguin but I somewhat TR him because he has a similar aura to in Terminator
so in terms of voting inside the coalition, I'd go with UD

Gamma saw that I had voted them in 167 before outing this read in 172.

Okay and? That doesn't change the fact that I can draw comparisons to a recent towngame of Penguin's while I can't really do the same for you.

[UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri]

Kyoko can you give me a more full look at your reads atm

With Mohab, I believe the reasons for Healing myself and Penguin in 40 are unlikely to be manufactured by scum. Mohab's reasons for both players are subjective and have meaning only to Mohab, so they seem unlikely to boost Mohab's credibility in the eyes of the other players. This made it appear to me that Mohab doesn't have an agenda behind their posts. I also believe that both of their reasons are unlikely to be lies: for example, Mohab's avatar appears to be from a storyline within a similar genre as Danganronpa, and it makes sense that Penguin really did send Mohab their first PM because Penguin is a moderator. Similar to my reasons for Townreading Hyped, I believe in 42 Mohab demonstrated assertiveness by voting themselves into the Coalition, both of which I believe are more likely to come from Town.

My scumread on Gamma is based only on their behavior since replacing in, I had no reason to suspect that slot based on Hyped. I originally believed the assertiveness about being voted into the Coalition in 17 to be slightly more likely to come from Town.

[Gamma Emerald]

My scumread on Gamma is based only on their behavior since replacing in, I had no reason to suspect that slot based on Hyped. I originally believed the assertiveness about being voted into the Coalition in 17 to be slightly more likely to come from Town.

This seems like a lot of words to say basically nothing.

[UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri]

Kyoko can you give me a more full look at your reads atm

I prefer Gamma over Penguin because I believe Penguin may be lazy Town:

i should probably read the setup better

HEAL: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: PenguinPower
HEAL: Mohab500
HEAL: Hyped

this day is too slow

excited for your final opinion now

I feel like these quotes come from a player who plays the game with the sole purpose of being entertained.

I also like that Penguin follows up on their question in 116 from 109.

[UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri]

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

This seems like a lot of words to say basically nothing.

[Gamma Emerald]

PenguinPower has been un-prodded due to weekend V/LA.

I took out Penguin because they have been contributing the least out of everyone already in my coalition.

jeez - wonder why that is

Taking someone out of your coalition isnt like voting for them, its just a lack of townread, and you havent done anything towny so to me this still makes sense.

I didnt think it was too scummy that you just went with the coalition but I thought Hutmeils was a bit more suspicious because they followed you and actually put it dangerously at 4/5.

To be clear even though I didnt think it was very scummy it was still a little and I understood the thought process and my first instinct when I saw it was sus. So I still townread mohab.

It’s hard to find things to point to that aren’t just mindmelding but these feel like actually nuanced thought and lean towny for me as a result.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

This seems like a lot of words to say basically nothing.

That’s kinda the point of 171!

[Alianna]

Jake The Wolfie replaces Mohab500.

[Jake The Wolfie]

What is up my guys, who's ready to partaaaay

[Gamma Emerald]

Do you have any thoughts atp?

[Cat.Jpeg]

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

Although I haven't really looked into it in more depth either lol, I think the real figure comes out to 32.5% of hitting scum simply because there are more players in the coalition than outside of it

Anyway

Actually I agree that it is 30% not 32.5% because to get 32.5% you are taking the definite 20% of voting scum 1 and adding half of 1/4 as the possibility of voting scum 2 but you need to add half of 1/5 because, while figuring out the chance of scum 2 being in the coalition you can ignore scum 1 as its confirmed there is a scum there and you can just look at half of 8, but with the chance of voting scum 2 you cant ignore scum 1 because they could still be voted. Either way theoretically it would be ideal to vote in the coalition, but if theres someone more than 2.4 times as scummy outside of the coalition then that would be a better choice.

[Cat.Jpeg]

In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

I don't like how rigid this is. I appreciate math as a guide but I dont think its a good idea to follow it this surely. Also if you were scum right now saying that we will only vote in the coalition until we hit scum is an easy way to protect a non-coalition, scummier-acting partner from being voted, then you would only have to worry about not getting voted yourself.

[Klick]

The odds of hitting scum in coalition over not would make me very hesitant to vote outside the coalition
The most compelling part of it for me is that there is guaranteed to be scum in the coalition, but there might not be any scum outside of it. I'd rather search for the theoretical scum we know exists first.

[Malakittens]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

[hutmeil]

It's more to do with the easy pass and the fact you only voted it to "move the game along"
IN all honesty that logic is just about a scumclaim because there shouldn't be a next stage to move along to if the coalition is properly done, other than the postgame.

By move the game along, I want to get more info on who could be scum or not. I don't the stats, but does anyone know the percentage of town winning on D1 for coalition games?

Kyoko can you give me a more full look at your reads atm

I prefer Gamma over Penguin because I believe Penguin may be lazy Town:

Or lazy scum. He was like this too the last time I played with him and he was scum. So I think the point I'm making is current "lazy" play is NAI.

In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

I don't like how rigid this is. I appreciate math as a guide but I dont think its a good idea to follow it this surely. Also if you were scum right now saying that we will only vote in the coalition until we hit scum is an easy way to protect a non-coalition, scummier-acting partner from being voted, then you would only have to worry about not getting voted yourself.

I'm with Klick on this. I think it's better to vote in-coalition (at least for now), because we're 100% sure there's scum in it. There's also the chance that all of the scum are in the coalition so chances of hitting scum is higher if we go vote in-coalition.

[Gamma Emerald]

Idk why but gamma is bugging me but I don’t wanna be wrong :/

I think I get why but I don’t feel like I should bring it up yet

[PenguinPower]

idk id this is a GOOD reason to TR penguin but I somewhat TR him because he has a similar aura to in Terminator
so in terms of voting inside the coalition, I'd go with UD

so would I!

[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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