Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Frogsterking]

448 is a good catch by the way Vivax

2635 is AI for Vivax!Town I think

[geraintm]

Prince felt so obvious that I was planning to first post maul him on day 6 before Mala was even flipped on day 5. The arguments felt virtually flawless, and the only reason I had for defending this guy was argued away by Owen in what looked to be solid reasoning. Prince had already spent the vast majority of the game on my scumlist as it was (you seem to gave ignored this part, and I'd like to ask why). He's on my shortlist both at the start of day 2 and day 3.

i didnt look back through all your posts, i looked at today, yesterday and was srolling back through the day before and i didnt see any of your normal wall type posts (like you have done today on frogster). you have too much to go through to find it all, but i felt like i hadnt spotted anything at the end of the day

Am I wrong to assume that you reacting to my case on FP in that way back in Day 1 is something I should usually read as AI for you but not in this game?

I'm sorry, I'm jot sure what this means

[Vivax]

Prince felt so obvious that I was planning to first post maul him on day 6 before Mala was even flipped on day 5. The arguments felt virtually flawless, and the only reason I had for defending this guy was argued away by Owen in what looked to be solid reasoning. Prince had already spent the vast majority of the game on my scumlist as it was (you seem to gave ignored this part, and I'd like to ask why). He's on my shortlist both at the start of day 2 and day 3.

i didnt look back through all your posts, i looked at today, yesterday and was srolling back through the day before and i didnt see any of your normal wall type posts (like you have done today on frogster). you have too much to go through to find it all, but i felt like i hadnt spotted anything at the end of the day

Am I wrong to assume that you reacting to my case on FP in that way back in Day 1 is something I should usually read as AI for you but not in this game?

I'm sorry, I'm jot sure what this means

Looks like you changed your opinion of me there after I listed reasons for FP to be scum, but you didn't follow up with changing your opinion of them as well

VOTE: bugspray

Come along, let's pressure this player into giving some opinions.

VOTE: BUGSPRAY

OBVSCUM DIE

VOTE: Bugspray

Disclaimer: Not a scumread, but killing not_mafia or people who could be them is always fun.

did bugspray claim maf? what did I miss?

This quick wagon sure seems interesting. Gonna note it for later

This looks like you knew it was on town

Are you scum for extra knowledge? I can't find a rational explanation for your reactions if you aren't

[Vivax]

VOTE: geraintm

Taking a peek then if you don't mind

[Vivax]

Wouldn't mind a higher temperature around here

[Enchant]

Should i bring firethrower?

[Vivax]

Should i bring firethrower?

I’m looking for reasons to get angry at something for the kicks but can’t find any, only imagine them
Was still enough to hurl a few curses at things I don‘t like today
And living here is tough with the avg temperature being low, so I suppose I‘m not opposed to more heat
Inner or outer

If you can crank up the inner for me it helps

[Enchant]

Your avatar outdated.

[Crescent]

My work internet is barely working today I'll have more to add later

[Crescent]

To specify I'm back to where I started the day with it being Enchant or Gera because I realized something specific but I don't have time to elaborate now

[Crescent]

Ok anyways. I referenced that other game of mine, and that specific player, and at work I was thinking about it, and several things dawned on me. Sultan and Gera are practically the same player, which is an uncommon sight there. I initially town read Sultan on day 1 for popping in to make a potentially crucial unvote (Which is the exact thing I did with Gera here), something I did not think he would have the wherewithall to do as scum, and for a single post that followed (Seems familiar). On days 2 and 3, I was confbiasing him like crazy. I only figured out what I was doing because I townread every single person in the entire game, and rebuilt my reads from the ground up. It was then that I realized my stance on him was more my own hype than anything else. I looked for reasons why Sultan was on so many townlists, but I could not find any legitimate ones. The game was allowing him to effectively coast.

So I was pondering these questions about Gera at work, and I started to wonder: Has anyone given a truly

good

reason to town read him all game? My gut response was no, without even having access to the topic at the time. Fire said he townread him a couple of times, but I don't believe he ever gave a reason for it, and he left the game town reading everyone currently alive. Owen said he townread him, but would reapproach his read on him in final 5 if it got there. He also I don't believe actually gave any discernable reason for this townread. If I ISOed myself, I'd probably see that I was, just like that game with Sultan, confbiasing on Gera. The parallels between this game and that game are beyond uncanny.

I have to concede it is possible my townread on him is functionally broken. Just like that other game, it took all of two day 1 posts I liked to essentially never put the low-volume player under any real scrutiny again (I even mentioned this in my big post on day 4 that he's a player I've essentially been ignoring). It's possible that he snuck into a blind spot of mine the same way Sultan did. I ask myself in contrast: Have people given truly good reasons to town read Fire and Vivax this game? Absolutely. Even Enchant, as scummy as I've found like half the things he's done this game, has more explicable reasons on his side for a town read than Gera does.

I wagered earlier that scum was avoiding bussing whenever possible, given the seeming purity of how Meg and Mala's trains looked at the end of the day, and I looked something up now that I'm home. Guess what? Unsure's train on day 2 was also pure. I then ISOed the three flipped scum.

He never appears in a single post either DWlee or Mala make.
Meg basically says "Let him sort out later". Nothing else.
Unsure immediately "+1s" my Gera might be town post, but almost entirely ignores him all game. Gera's name appears just 17 times in this entire ISO, and he only ever interacts with Gera twice... Mostly when trying to rally support to kill Enchant. He says Gera "could" be scum in the same post he tries to pair Mala and Enchant as the last two.. But he also lists virtually everyone in the game as possible scum in that post as well. Gera is someone scum drew a lot of attention to in 2272 and someone scum has almost completely ignored in this game.

Imma do a quick VCA on Gera...

Day 1: Lowell, Fred, Meg, off of Meg when he hits -1
Day 2: Fire (I remember offhand he gave Fred a "naughty point for voting Fire... Then also voted Fire, for some reason).. Holy crap he spends a significant amount of day 2 wasting his vote on Fire.

Day 3: Basically doesn't vote for a long while. Prince/Enchant both get a train and Gera parks on... Vivax for a while, despite his #2 in Enchant actually having a train and being a useful vote.. Which is also something I noted, I think (gg me not pushing this further). He ends as the second vote on Malcolm, but he started as the -1 vote on Malcolm. He only votes Unsure when Unsure is confirmed scum. This guy's VCA is actually completely awful holy shit.

So yeah, I'm going to ask everyone else alive.. Is there actually a legit reason for a townread here or did I just allow this game to fall into the exact same trap as that game?

But seriously I'm kinda feeling like there's no way Vivax and FK are allowed to be voted off here, and if it's Gera I have a blind spot for players like him I seriously need to address.

[Enchant]

Eh. I believe if you really try, you can find reason to scumread/townread anyone.

If you want to townread someone, you will find why.

About Gera can't comment, but i don't remember any attention.

Imo, if you so assured in Vivax/MT innocence, you can afford two kills on me/Gera. If so, i would put question more in if should we really believe in you three.

[Crescent]

Good writeup, shouldn't even assume you are yeetable for it, why?
Question is if you'd rather presume Gera or Enchant

Because paranoia of me should be at maximum at this point and for good reason. I'm planning as if I've only got one shot.

[Crescent]

Ok so checking Unsure's ISO again definitely showed something interesting. I mentioned that 2284 seemed like something he might not do if Enchant is scum, and then I was laying there in bed now and suddenly pondered "just how long was Unsure trying to kill Enchant. It started way earlier than I thought.

The answer is: Since day 2, shortly after.. I went off on Enchant. Unsure was also lazy sussing Mala at the time just for existing, but she had no real pressure. Going after both other scum on day 2 after a scum vote on day 1? Probably not. Let's move further.

Unsure quotes.. Exactly two Enchant posts in his entire ISO, and never at any point even stops to, say, ask Enchant a real question about reads or anything. No good reason is given for Enchant appearing on his scumlist. He asks Enchant why he got off MT.. Like 300 posts after he switches to Fred. Unsure has several posts in this timeframe where he ignores this unvote.

When does he inquire? Immediately after I double down on Enchant for his scummy unvote on Fred in post #1234. Enchant then stays on Unsure's scumlist for virtually the rest of the game for almost no given reason. He jumps onto the momentum I create on Enchant, and it looks super opportunistic in the process.

Unsure's ISO on Enchant reeks of scum tunneling town. The way he tunnels on Enchant is also very similar to the way he tunnels on Malcolm. He directly quotes almost no Malcolm posts either, and barely asks him a single direct question of any kind. Unsure seemed to kinda just.. Not actually care what the people he was tunneling on were posting.

Like I seem to be doing all the actual work today but sure why not. I'm still keeping it to a pace I can handle in my current state. Unsure's ISO is a trove of information yay.

[Frogsterking]

Do not underestimate the amount of work I've put into this day lol

[Frogsterking]

I townread Enchant for a completely different reason if you want me to post it. I don't disagree with what you found, I just didn't think to look there.

[Vivax]

Your avatar outdated.

lol rude, but not surprising at this point. Had the hunch floating for about a week.
Aphelios? Kinda taking a shot in the dark here, more advisable than the i-typo version.

Imo, if you so assured in Vivax/MT innocence, you can afford two kills on me/Gera. If so, i would put question more in if should we really believe in you three.

MalcolmTucker/me? What?

Good writeup, shouldn't even assume you are yeetable for it, why?
Question is if you'd rather presume Gera or Enchant

Because paranoia of me should be at maximum at this point and for good reason. I'm planning as if I've only got one shot.

Still want to think that Ench is town and gera scum for today

[Frogsterking]

Like I seem to be doing all the actual work today but sure why not. I'm still keeping it to a pace I can handle in my current state. Unsure's ISO is a trove of information yay.

Do not underestimate the amount of work I've put into this day lol

I townread Enchant for a completely different reason if you want me to post it. I don't disagree with what you found, I just didn't think to look there.

Fine, be like that! The tell is called elimination by pathing and it involved you.

[Frogsterking]

Still want to think that Ench is town and gera scum for today

I was hoping there would be a huge fight over which one is the last scum and we all get super tilted, then one of them would get hammered and flip red after like a week of fighting, and the game would just keep going into final 3, and we learn they were both scum the whole time!

[Vivax]

Still want to think that Ench is town and gera scum for today

I was hoping there would be a huge fight over which one is the last scum and we all get super tilted, then one of them would get hammered and flip red after like a week of fighting, and the game would just keep going into final 3, and we learn they were both scum the whole time!

Tell me Cres is maf without telling me that, in other words

Elimination by pathing, if I had to guess it'd mean I'd look at anyone getting thrown around as maf the least and being on the sidelines the most

While another bunch plants reasons to look guilty

[Vivax]

I don't see yet why you should be treated as the exception here

[Frogsterking]

Beginning of Path

Spoiler:

I now suspect crescend for big post, it was average before "if Unsure is town", which is not possible considering Unsure literally claimed mafia even before hammer. Therefore this bullshit was writed without real look at the game and is worthless.

Wdm, you writed that just today

So you don't recheck what you send?

Do you even care?

I don't need to get EXACT WORDINGS of your shitposts

Stop trying to speculate because i used "is" instead of "was", it's serious business here.

This line still shouldn't had exist.

Instantly destroyed, lmao, by pointing that i misplaced one word.


Why send outdated post at first place? To show off. I am not falling for this charade.

For me Mala is 99% mafia, but liming her first allows Crescend bullshit wagon on me tomorrow and decapitate me, so i prefer removing potential teammates first.

Sad that i need support from mafia at these times.

I am now 98% sure Crescent is mafia.

Ironically i can't do shit about it.

So I was sitting there at lunch and something just dawned on me.

Enchant is calling Mala and I scum.. So why is he voting Prince?

Because no one will vote you.

Nightkill Greeting
Nightkill Lowell
Nightkill Owen

Spoiler:

Not good.

I am now 98% sure Crescent is mafia.

Ironically i can't do shit about it.

Enchant can you scum case Crescent?

No, i can't. I am not sure about it anymore.

I am now 98% sure Crescent is mafia.

Ironically i can't do shit about it.

Enchant can you scum case Crescent?

No, i can't. I am not sure about it anymore.

What changed your mind?

I am now 98% sure Crescent is mafia.

Ironically i can't do shit about it.

Enchant can you scum case Crescent?

No, i can't. I am not sure about it anymore.

What changed your mind?

I expected Prince to flip maf obvs, i just lose confedence overall.

Oh wow it's morning already. Follow up question: Enchant are you an early bird?

Not really, i wake up late.

End of path

[Vivax]

Ba-dum-tsss

[Vivax]

So if we continue that line of thought and lim gera and he flips town, you or Ench get to smother a pillow in the night?

[Frogsterking]

I'm determined to answer. I'm sloooooowly interpreting what you're asking.