Babylon 5 Mafia: Severed Dreams - Over

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, remember your 1 town, 1 scum, 1 non-town theory?

You're Minbari. Nat and KoC are also Minbari. One was scum and the other is non-town. That leaves you as AoL.

Of course I remember my own theories. But you should remember all the other things I said. You know, like that it is UNTESTED, UNPROVEN, and that I have been wrong before. I feel strongly in my theory, but there is no way that I'm going to use it as my only barometer for detecting scum until it is completely proven. You shouldn't either.

Not to mention, you're not following your own logic.

Narn (1 town, 1 scum, 1 non-town)

malt (gunsmith-like town role)
dybeck (confirmed non-town)
pop (left to be scum)

If we all think that Malt is cleared, then pop is definitely scum. Why not lynch a scum instead of someone non-town?

Wait, he is MIA. And can't counter-claim.

I see this as you flailing. Trying to grab onto anything to keep from drowning. You're tightly holding onto the theory, but then in less than a page are disregarding it.

There is just something wrong with your logic and I can't accept anything you're saying.

Anyone who blindly follows this theory before such a time as it is proven is scummy. Using it as additional evidence is all well and good, but it should never be the only reason.

Wikipedia also says I'm a Psi-"Corp". It seems like Tar made another spelling mistake =/

No, Tar is right in this instance. The Psi-Corps is the organization, and P-12s or higher can become Psi-Cops, which is a position within the Psi-Corps.

Anyway, I'm unsure exactly what to do... There is some question exactly how true malt's readings are.

We still have a decent amount of time, and I think that I would like TheInternet to make a claim. He's been floating around too much and was very casual when placed under pressure earlier.

Vote:TheInternet

[forbiddanlight]

Anyone who blindly follows this theory before such a time as it is proven is scummy. Using it as additional evidence is all well and good, but it should never be the only reason.

Well, it works for additional evidence since I do feel TI's reaction was weird earlier, but to be fair, how can a theory really be tested without a lynch?

[hp [leaves]]

I believe in your theory as it is pretty much perfectly balanced.

[Kinetic]

Anyone who blindly follows this theory before such a time as it is proven is scummy. Using it as additional evidence is all well and good, but it should never be the only reason.

Well, it works for additional evidence since I do feel TI's reaction was weird earlier, but to be fair, how can a theory really be tested without a lynch?

Like I said, I'm voting TheInternet based on his reaction to previous pressure. The best way to test the theory is a lynch, and he seems to be by far the scummiest candidate.

[DrippingGoofball]

I believe in your theory as it is pretty much perfectly balanced.

Doesn't that mean an easily breakable game?

Then it's just a matter of mechanically going through the motions.

[forbiddanlight]

Doesn't that mean an easily breakable game?

Then it's just a matter of mechanically going through the motions.

Well, I'm assuming there's a curveball somewhere. But I don't think it's with TI.

[armlx]

Doesn't that mean an easily breakable game?

Then it's just a matter of mechanically going through the motions.

Well, I'm assuming there's a curveball somewhere. But I don't think it's with TI.

Why?

[Tarhalindur]

"It should come as no surprise. We knew the warrior caste was unhappy with our activities."
"Unhappy?! Delenn, he's planning to kill you!"
"That is…one interpretation."
"He said he would use any and all means necessary. I respectfully suggest that he intends to go far beyond harsh language." - Delenn and Lennier

MacavityLock replaces populartajo. Dybeck, in a second incarnation, replaces farside22. Both are effective as soon as they post in the thread. Welcome them (back, if applicable) to the game!

Still searching for a replacement for RandomGem and cr3t1n. (I had to reject one possibility when I concluded that he would probably flake.)

I'll hand out prods now, if needed. - Tar

The Thirtieth Vote Count (aka the "All Alone In the Night" Vote Count):

Vote Count:

VisMaior (0)
Empking (0)
malthusis (1) - Mana_Ku
Kinetic (rep. MBPikamon) (0)
MafiaSSK (0)
armlx (0)
forbiddanlight (0)
MacavityLock (rep. populartajo) (0)
Mana_Ku (0)
Natirasha (0)
veerus (0)
The Internet (2) - forbiddanlight, Kinetic (rep. MBPikamon)
DrippingGoofball (0)
cr3t1n (rep. Blitzer) (0)
pacman281292 (0)
RandomGem (0)
hp [leaves] (6) - malthusis, armlx, DrippingGoofball, Natirasha, veerus, MafiaSSK
dybeck II (rep. farside22 who rep. Tovarish) (1) - Empking

Not Voting (8): VisMaior, populartajo, The Internet, cr3t1n, pacman281292, RandomGem, hp [leaves], dybeck II

Votes required to lynch: 10

FoS Count:

VisMaior
Empking (1) - veerus
malthusis
Kinetic (rep. MBPikamon)
MafiaSSK (1) - veerus
armlx
forbiddanlight
MacavityLock (rep. populartajo)
Mana_Ku
Natirasha
veerus
The Internet
DrippingGoofball
cr3t1n (rep. Blitzer)
pacman281292
RandomGem
hp [leaves]
dybeck II (rep. farside22 who rep. Tovarish)

Current Deadline:

November 21, 2008 at ~6:00 P.M. (GMT -6)

First Mod Deadline Review:

November 14, 2008 at ~6:00 P.M. (GMT -6)

[MacavityLock]

Hello everybody. I'm replacing in for populartajo. I've been following along a bit and done a read/skim of late day 1 and day 2. Given what I've seen so far, I'll probably want to do a closer re-read on Malt, hp, farside, and internet.

Also, please be kind. This is my first large theme :}

[VisMaior]

What I dont see is why the perfect balnce theory should stick. I have seen very feew (if any) games where each player had thhesekind of similarities.

[MacavityLock]

OK, after an admittedly quick full re-read, I have a question for Malt: Did your result on hp say that he was "dangerous", that he "can kill", or both? You've said both in thread, but I think that the difference is pretty large.

Also, if anybody has the current list of player-race mappings, I would love to get a post with them. Given all the claims/retractions/etc, I could do it myself, but it would take a while.

[hp [leaves]]

I'll post my list for you:

Centauri:
RandomGem
The internet
farside

Unaligned:
Armlx
MafiaSSK
cr3t1n

Earthforce(<3):
hp [leaves]
DrippingGoofBall
Pacman###

Minbari:
Kinetic
Nat
KoC (dead)

Narn:
malt
pop
dybeck (dead)

b5:
Mana-ku
veerus
ForbiddenLight
Empking
VisMajor
(two are lying and are survivors)

[armlx]

What I dont see is why the perfect balnce theory should stick. I have seen very feew (if any) games where each player had thhesekind of similarities.

This.

[forbiddanlight]

Why?

TI's reaction when we started voting him the day before.

[malthusis]

@Mac: My result said he was dangerous, which meant that he could kill.

[MacavityLock]

@Mac: My result said he was dangerous, which meant that he could kill.

How sure are you that "dangerous" means "able to to kill"? If you're 100% sure about this like you seem to be, and hp has said that he cannot kill, then it seems pretty clear to me that we should be choosing between hp and malt today.

[malthusis]

When one's ability says (You can investigate someone and see if they are able to kill) I'm pretty sure.

[pacman281292]

When one's ability says (You can investigate someone and see if they are able to kill) I'm pretty sure.

hmm... SO WHAT?! DANGEROUS OR KILLER?!

[malthusis]

Hp can kill. That's the message I've been trying to get across for the last two pages.

[MacavityLock]

OK then.

Vote: hp [leaves]

.

[pacman281292]

If hp shows up as a non-killer, I'll slap you, malth.
(And lynch you, though)

[Kinetic]

If hp shows up as a non-killer, I'll slap you, malth.
(And lynch you, though)

How will we know? None of the current reveals have told us EXACTLY what someone is... If HP comes up as scum or as XXXX Killer, that would be one thing, but what if he comes up as Psy-Cop? Will that mean that he was telling the truth or that he was lying?

[malthusis]

pacman281292 wrote:
If hp shows up as a non-killer, I'll slap you, malth.
(And lynch you, though)


How will we know? None of the current reveals have told us EXACTLY what someone is... If HP comes up as scum or as XXXX Killer, that would be one thing, but what if he comes up as Psy-Cop? Will that mean that he was telling the truth or that he was lying?

That's why I'm supplementing all this with the fact that [hp] hasn't exactly been the most pro-town person and if we lynch him, we aren't losing a AoL member. Simply if anything differs from what [hp] says, I'm going to take it he was lying.

[pacman281292]

If hp comes up as a Psi-cop, then:
a) he is "dangerous" in any weird way (possibly a "kill miller")
b) malth misinterpreted his role PM/his results
c) any weird role screwed the results
d) malth is lying
Using Occam's razor, it would reduce it to a) and d), but that razor is not enough reliable, and I might be wrong.
If not:
a) hp lied.

[Kinetic]

If hp comes up as a Psi-cop, then:
a) he is "dangerous" in any weird way (possibly a "kill miller")
b) malth misinterpreted his role PM/his results
c) any weird role screwed the results
d) malth is lying
Using Occam's razor, it would reduce it to a) and d), but that razor is not enough reliable, and I might be wrong.
If not:
a) hp lied.

A) Malt is claiming to be a Binary Cop. His binary results are either 'This person can kill' or 'This person cannot kill'.

The miller idea is interesting, but using your 'Occum's Razor' idea, the Miller is not the most likely occurrence. In THIS case, Occum's Razor says either Malt or HP is lying.

B) According to Malt, and we have asked for clarification for just this very reason, his only results are either someone can kill, or someone cannot kill.

C) Very unlikely. In my opinion the only reason the Bus role is coming up is because Nat pulled it. Nat couldn't have done it last night. The other possibility is dybeck, and I know this is a meta response, but if he did I doubt Tar would let him back in the game with that information. (Unless the role dybeck is coming into is scum of the same group that he targeted the night before. And even if so, I doubt tar would give that scum group that advantage either)

The other possibility is if somehow the scum have a Bus Driver type role. That is possible, and sort of goes in line with the possibility that Nat's role copies a random scum power which I thought might be fun. But if they DID have a Bus Driver role, I cannot imagine them doing what they did and not using the opportunity to kill hp since he wouldn't be able to be protected.

Additionally, the scum having a Bus Driver role would pretty much make their kills unstoppable by a doctor role.

D)/A2) Here is your Occum's Razor.