I have no problems with the plan at all, but it does get complicated there are night kills.
DragonsofSummer wrote:That kill worries me, and I agree that we have now found the hole in the plan. The biggest problem is we gain no information from that night because of it. Basically an entire day was wasted imo.
DragonsofSummer wrote:
send SlySly
send Orangepenguin
Do I even need to point out the contradictory scuminess here? Usually I stay away from lurkers, but this one has boldy complained about the lack of effort from everyone.
I have not complained about a lack of effort from anyone. All I have commented on was the fact that the scum nk denied the town information. Tell me where in any post I have complained about a lack of effort from any player, please, because I guarentee it isn't there.
But we did gain a little info from the nk in that we know that Spring's plan doesn't work because nk's like the one that occurred last night can happen. It means the game can't be broken that easily, and we have to be slightly more methodical about it.
unsend OP
.
I still feel SlySly is fairly scummy especially after his completely baseless accusations against me. Creating a case based on something that doesn't even exist is scummy, its as simple as that.
"I want you to hit me as hard as you can."
-Tyler Durden
ABR wrote:1. Of course I didn't vote on D1. The day was unnecessarily rushed. We gained little to no information.
2. No, the implication was that the day was being rushed.
3. So your argument is that scum write responses rather than make original content? That is a very minor charge against me...
1. If you thought that, why didn't you speak up? Why were your only contributions basically along the lines of politicking for your own jailing?
2. I disagree, that's not what I got out of that at all. But I hope the town rereads this post in its context and makes up their own mind. I think you and CarnCarn are jumping on this idea that you were these two mavericks in trying to stop the town from lynching so quickly D1, when the fact of the matter is nothing of substance was done to slow us down.
3. From my experience some scum try to act like they're involved in the game by making plenty of posts... except most of them aren't really saying or contributing anything.
I only skimmed the thread at the time. I assumed players who actually read it would probably know what they are doing better than me. Therefore I didn't try to "stop" it, instead I asked "why", because I didn't see the reasoning behind voting TM. And instead of answering my question, you just bandwagonned someone else and ended the day. What can I do.
When I'm unsure of what to do, I don't get involved. How simple is that?
(Most of the time I am sure of what I'm doing, so don't worry.)
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
icemanE wrote:
We send two suspected TOWNIES to jail every night - they both pick no until they come up with guilty reports - we continue to send those townies, and they pick the 50% daykills, then use them on the guilties. This, to me, seems more effective than sending scum to jail where our only chance is a gamble.
With that in mind I'm going to
unsend - everyone
while you guys digest.
PS - I would be willing to go to jail to test my theory.
Erh, you do realize that that is basically my plan and the one we put to use yesterday right? You do realize that you not a moment ago you were criticizing me for it right?
spring wrote:
Erh, you do realize that that is basically my plan and the one we put to use yesterday right? You do realize that you not a moment ago you were criticizing me for it right?
More or less, but my point is we should actively avoid sending scum if at all possible. So in that way it's quite different.
No, spring. Yesterday we sent two players we "trusted".
Iceman, your plan won't work. Because...when will we kill the scum lol? Once they've had majority? There's no time to day-cop everyone one by one...ffs.
Its better to just play without a plan and let the chips fall where they may.
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
spring wrote:
Erh, you do realize that that is basically my plan and the one we put to use yesterday right? You do realize that you not a moment ago you were criticizing me for it right?
More or less, but my point is we should actively avoid sending scum if at all possible. So in that way it's quite different.
Iceman, your plan won't work. Because...when will we kill the scum lol? Once they've had majority? There's no time to day-cop everyone one by one...ffs.
Here's the thing: we don't need to day cop everybody. As long as people keep dying at night, we'll have less people to investigate. Since it's daycop, we don't have to worry about wasted investigations since we'll be investigating people who are alive during the day. Once we get a good number of people investigated, and in reality we'd only need to check two people outside of the investigators themselves, we'll have very good odds of catching scum. How do we kill them, you ask? With this, if both prisoners pick no:
Setup wrote:Both X and Y chooses one of these: daycop investigation, doc protection (may self-protect), 50% daykill next day.
So that's how.
Anyways, like Spring says:
What do you make of the NK then?
I have no idea what to make of it. Obviously if our prisoners are going to continue to get murdered while in jail there's no way for us to win, so I'm gonna go ahead and assume that's not happening every night, and investigating OP to see if he's scum who has some sort of ability to secretly kill once he's in jail will help clear that up. That's why I don't want to send him anymore, we should investigate him instead. Honestly I cannot envision an in-jail NK happening every night, or else what the heck are we supposed to do?
Anyone who's got a better idea, speak up. I'm not sending anyone until we've got this figured out.
iceman, your plan doesn't work all that well if there are NKs, even if they are outside of prison. For example, we are already down to 11 players, with one dead townie.
If we assume 1 NK/night, and minimum of 2 scum (possibly 3):
then after tonight we would be down to 8 town, 2 scum (maybe 7, 3)
So, after a round of investigations, if we pick randomly, the chances of getting a guilty on at least one scum are only 1-(0.80)(0.80)=0.36, assuming we rolled dice on who out of the 10 players to investigate.
So, on the relatively low probability that we do find scum, we have to repeat this process, suffering another NK:
after a third night we would be down to 7 town, 2 scum (possibly 6, 3)
Then, given the daykill is only 50% chance, the chance of killing that scum is 1-(0.5)^2=0.75, which is a decent chance, but 1/4 times we don't succeed.
Assuming we don't get a guilty tomorrow (1:2 odds that we don't), that does narrow down the list of suspects:
After a third night we would be down to 7 town, 2 scum, with probably 1 definately confirmed town (as the other might get NK'd; we'll go with the worst case scenarios here). Then, randomly investigating gives odds of finding scum are 1-(2/3)^2=5/9=0.56, which is somewhat favorable. However, we would have to repeat the process and suffer another NK, etc.
Also, this assumes that the prisoners are telling the truth about their investigations, which is not easy to confirm. Furthermore, if we assume 3 scum the chances of finding scum are obviously higher, but I choose to calculate things using only 2.
Anyway, I think there are a lot of "if's" in this plan; that is why I am hesitant.
DragonsofSummer wrote:
I have not complained about a lack of effort from anyone.
This is what I was referring to...
DragonsofSummer wrote:
Basically an entire day was wasted imo.
I assumed this meant that due to the lack of effort in day 1, it was basically a wasted day. That could be taken an accusation of everyone. Since then, you have not contributed much more than votes. That combined with apparent lurking has me a little suspicious. As you can see from my previous posts, you are not at the top of my list of most suspicious at the moment but what I mentioned was well worth pointing out, and look, it seems to have helped motivate you to post.
"SlySly is the scummiest player on the site." ~DrippingGoofball
Well if the general town concensus is that my plan is invalid, so be it. But ABR, what do you mean by "play it as we go?" How are we going to get anywhere? What do we do from here?
Then, randomly investigating gives odds of finding scum are 1-(2/3)^2=5/9=0.56, which is somewhat favorable.
Oops, I should correct this; minor mistake in my thinking. The chances are actually 1-(3/4)^2=7/16=0.4375, so they are actually not much better than the previous day's chances.
Anyway, it just seems like this plan seems to fail, and that's even before we add in all the "unless otherwise stated" stuff.
Albert B. Rampage wrote:I am sure the post above is sound but I will not read it.
This is an example of my philosophy. Let the people who know what they're doing do it.
I don't know anything more about this than you (I think). Everything I said is based off stuff ITT.
icemanE wrote:Well if the general town concensus is that my plan is invalid, so be it. But ABR, what do you mean by "play it as we go?" How are we going to get anywhere? What do we do from here?
I mean we play like normal mafia, as if this was a normal setup, except we lynch 2 people and they have a chance of surviving. No crazy macro-strategy.
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
But the problem is there's all kinds of strategy that goes on at night. Both players have to evaluate - do we think the other player is scum? What should I pick, yes or no? I mean, don't we have to have some kind of basic plan?
We tried sending innocents to jail day one, I think it's an intelligent decision to now attempt the opposite of that and figure out who seems the likely candidates for scum.
Besides ice, even if we get our picks wrong today and send innocents to jail, would your/spring's plan better serve as a backup?
