Open 99: Mayo Clinic (Game Over!) before 703

[GnKoichi]

Yeah. That makes sense.

[Wall-E]

I can see that, Nameless. I'll withold judgement until more have chimed in. Someone might come up with something else.

Is scumhunting at a crawl with this setup/planning discussion? Or is this part of our scumhunt? There's no way to know (and I like it).

[Mirth]

"The zombies have been driven out, but you all might want to head over to the neurology department to make sure your brain is still in one piece just in case."

VOTE COUNT

Charter - 3 - [Nameless, Wall-E, GnKoichi]

Nameless - 2 - [TonyMontana, charter]
Stef - 2 - [Kiro, Puta Puta]

Kmd - 1 - [Stef]
Wall-E - 1 - [Kmd]
GnKoihi - 1 - [Mana_Ku]
Kiro - 1 - [orangepenguin]

Not Voting - 1 - [Plum]

[Wall-E]

lol wut

is this flavor influencing the game in any way, mod?

ps my brain hurts

I don't know. Are you letting the flavour influence the game? Do I need to get you a referral to someone?

[charter]

What's this idea with rotating protection? We could try it for this round at least. If people claim vig and we get three or four, that's still enough to keep them protected, even double protect two without having to out doctors (if all doctors focus on those four, they'll be protected with some natural overlap). Though I guess the flaw here is that also outs the doctors as easy targets that night. There's really no way to do this yet, is there?

It's not going to work I don't think. Just guessing here, but it would out about three players as 'not doctor'. Two of them will be pro town vigs, so I don't think it will help that much.

I'm in agreement that we shouldn't claim now, unless someone actually shows (with numbers) that it will be helpful. Else I say we wait.

Also, I think we should set a claim order for tomorrow, today, and then stick to it tomorrow. Anyone that messes up will be highly suspect.

[Wall-E]

You're against the claim even though EVERYONE in the game will know they got a power?

I guess both views have merits.

[charter]

All a massclaim will do right now is out the two vigs, and possibly the SK or a scum. I can see both sides to it. If two people claim, and everyone else says they are not a vig, then we have two confirmed innocents, which will be nice. More than likely, in this scenario, I see all the doctors protecting these two, and we essentially let them decide a large portion of the game.

Another point of note. I think it might be very likely we go a few nights with no kills without the massclaim, which seems like pushing the game towards nightless, which is much better for the town.

[Wall-E]

Upon reflection, I agree with charter's last post.

[GnKoichi]

What are we agreeing to? That by not claiming for a few night, we're likely to keep night deaths low? That makes sense if I'm reading it right.

On a side note, who's for lynching Plum if he doesn't say something soon?

[GnKoichi]

edit by way of post: "that by not claiming for a few days, we're likely to keep night deaths low"

[charter]

What are we agreeing to? That by not claiming for a few night, we're likely to keep night deaths low? That makes sense if I'm reading it right.

That is my thinking on it.

On a side note, who's for lynching Plum if he doesn't say something soon?

Is this serious?

[Plum]

What are we agreeing to? That by not claiming for a few night, we're likely to keep night deaths low? That makes sense if I'm reading it right.

On a side note, who's for lynching Plum if he doesn't say something soon?

Hey, I'm a she. Please give me a break for a second, game just started today, and late ending school day + late after school program = I'm just reading this now. Am absolutely not lurking.

FOS GnKoichi

, seriously, lurker lynch for less than one day of lurking when I haven't been on the site yet today = WTH? I'm with Charter's reaction there. Not sure how close we are to the random stage and would like to hear more about this, hence FOS and not vote, for now.

On claiming discussion: I'm with Nameless that

Reasoned scumhunting > statistics, IMHO.

Vig claiming might have merit, as WALL-E's scenario suggests. 1/4 chance isn't bad, but it may lead to Doc overexposure and letting the scum kill off the Docs easily, as also discussed. In all honesty, I'm fairly unfamiliar with deducing game-breaking strategies, so I don't have much more to add at this juncture. My thoughts are this: we scumhunt. Once we get serious and close to lynch we might want to discuss again the feasability of claiming or ordering protection. For now, I would advocate basic strong scumhunting.

[Puta Puta]

Regarding claiming, ti is definitely a no-no since it essentially paralyzes scum-hunting with attention being focused on what's going to happen at night. charter, your psot is definitely very nice and explains it well, so I won't repeat.

Plum, your post (above this one) makes me a bit nervous, you seem to like to put in in our face that you are all for scumhunting/doing the best for town and it comes off a bit fake. "basic strong scumhunting" sounds wrong to me..it's just a gut feeling now, but tiniFoS.

[GnKoichi]

Sorry Plum. The Lynch thing for you was a poor joke. I'd be much more likely to vote for you based on your extremely strong reaction, but that's just me.

I think we're all in agreement on the lack of role claiming. So, where does that leave us?

Apparently, I've got the FOS. So, you know, awesome.

I still have my connect four suspicion on charter, but that's just a hunch among a sea of weak feelings.

Plum had a violent reaction to being called out, but that's seems more like a volatile player than a scum trying to avoid suspicion. Or is that what she wants us to think? (sorry about calling you a he, also)

And then there's my nameless smiley face theory. Jeez, day 1 is hard.

[Wall-E]

The major problem I have with the vigs claiming is that it would completely tell the scum every bit of information in the game. They'd know it all. I'm not liking that situation, so I will hereby denounce a vig claim.

[GnKoichi]

I don't know why I didn't think about this before. Charter was saying that we should try to avoid night deaths, right? He was essentially saying that time, in this setup, gives us a better chance to win. If we keep deaths low, that gives us more time to use our doctors for protection and gather intel to avoid accidentally killing one of our own (since all town are either doc or vig, we're all pretty key for the team).

So, who else is for a NL on day 1, then see what happens tonight?

unvote: charter

vote: NO LYNCH

[Stef]

I think having our vigs claim is plain dumb. We would probably loose one due to a counter claim and even if we won't use the other the mafia will kill our doctors one by one + the misslynches. We would make scumhunting = null and we would just ruin the game.

I am against the claims so early in the game. Unless some1 finds a sound plan i'd keep the MC till later in the game when it would be more valuable.

[Stef]

I'm not liking GnK's posts.

[charter]

I thought about no lynch, but in all honesty, I don't think it's the right option. I would be suprised if we have a kill tonight, so no lynch would put us right back where we are now (in all likelyhood).

[Stef]

I don't know why I didn't think about this before. Charter was saying that we should try to avoid night deaths, right? He was essentially saying that time, in this setup, gives us a better chance to win. If we keep deaths low, that gives us more time to use our doctors for protection and gather intel to avoid accidentally killing one of our own (since all town are either doc or vig, we're all pretty key for the team).

So, who else is for a NL on day 1, then see what happens tonight?

unvote: charter

vote: NO LYNCH

1'st of all you based much of what you said on charter's opinion. Have you forgot he might very well be scum and he might try to influence the town into something that sucks for us? Or isn't your interest to have the town win?

2'nd you use faulty logic. That no-lynch setup doesn't give us an edge. In this game protection doesn't help us gather ANY info since there are 7 damn doctors one of which isn't even town.

3'rd you use yet another faulty logic. The purpose isn't to have docs protecting more. The purpose is to find the scum and kill them and win the game. Nothing else. If you can explain to me any situation in which we should prolong the game and block the scumhunting for the first day or so would be good for the town maybe i'll give you a clap for finding a good fake explanation or maybe i'll believe you.

Right now you're my winning horse!

Vote: GnKoichi

[Kiro]

Topic moving at a decent speed.

I already stated my opinions earlier and still believe we shouldn't do massclaims yet.

No Lynch doesn't seem like a good strategy in this game. That's less discussion. We shouldn't have to rely on the game setup to scumhunt for us so I think Town's approach should be the standard fare and see who we end up giving the rope to on Day 1.

@GnKoichi: Care to share any specific reasons or advantage you see with a No Lynch?

[Stef]

By the way.. RANDOM STAGE OVER!

[GnKoichi]

We're pretty likely to have two deaths tonight, aren't we? There are seven docs, one who can aim his protection, and the other six shooting in the dark, so you're likely to have overlap there. That would probably give us five or six people who are protected (out of 12, so about half). Then you have four kill attempts (1 mafia, 2 vigs, 1 sk), which are less likely to overlap since there are less of them. If there are four attempts on a group of half protected people, wouldn't we expect two of them to go through?

Maybe charter wants to avoid a No Lynch since a lynch would mean the likelihood of us killing one of our own docs (50% chance of this happening).

FoS: charter

.

Also, I know I'm drawing a lot of suspicion myself by talking this much. Just trying to see how people reacted to different things (who would jump on a two-vote first to make it a three vote [also charter] and how people react to being voted for). Since I'm advocating a No Lynch now, there's not much point in testing the water any more.

[GnKoichi]

Sorry that didn't answer everything people asked. Posts came as I was typing.

My idea behind the No Lynch was based on charter's idea, so I did think it was strange he went against it.

However, I do think we can get more info out of the night stage than this part of the scum hunt. If we lynch, we have a 75% chance of knocking out one of our own, and then having a worse night stage (because we'll have less protection from the doctors, or one less kill attempt from one of our vigs). If we make a plan for protection, that would be something to analyze on day 2. Right now, we have nothing but suspicions, and we're more likely to hurt ourselves than help.

If no one wants a No Lynch, I'll put my vote back on charter, for the reasons mentioned before.

[GnKoichi]

Sorry 66% chance to kill one of our own. Still not good odds.