Open 99: Mayo Clinic (Game Over!) before 703

[charter]

Ehhh, like quack mafia can be broke by forming a ring and everyone protecting the person who's name is below them. Here I was thinking kind of the same thing, but I don't think we have enough doctors for it to work. Plus I don't think risking losing the vigs is worth it either. It looks like we might actually have to scumhunt.

@MK, is that vote serious?

[Mirth]

"Attention all personnel, all personnel, there appears to have been a zombie outbreak. Please keep your arms and legs inside the hospital, and remember, decapitate anything that looks dead."

VOTE COUNT

Nameless - 3 - [TonyMontana, GnKoichi, charter]

Charter - 2 - [Nameless, Wall-E]

Kmd - 1 - [Stef]
Stef - 1 - [Kiro]
Wall-E - 1 - [Kmd]
GnKoihi - 1 - [Mana_Ku]

Not Voting - 3 - [Puta Puta, Plum, orangepenguin]

[Wall-E]

charter: I think I see what you mean, but we'd need more docs, and there's no guarantee we'd ever uncover the mafia doc.

[charter]

Yeah, I'm not advocating my idea anymore. Once I thought about it for a few minutes, I realized it's probably not going to work.

[Kmd4390]

The only thing that would work is probably for the viges (what's the proper plural for vig?) to claim, and then the docs protect them. That's probably a horrible idea though. Actually yeah, the docs would die, and eventually viges would die. It's suicide to try anything game breaking in this game.

[charter]

Actually, would the vigs claiming be all that bad? If two of them claim, then we know that they are confirmed town. If three claim, one is either the SK or scum, and two are real, if four claim, we'll be doing pretty good. Five, not going to happen.

The only problem I see with this is protecting them at night. We can tell two people to protect a vig, if a vig dies, we then know a doctor is lying. It also could be useful so that they can both target the same person, that way the mafia doc cannot protect that scum member.

[Kmd4390]

I don't know. When we start losing docs, the Vigs are sitting ducks. Say we mislynch a doc Day 1, and scum claims Vig. Who do we protect? If we are wrong, we lose a vig Night 1. Even if we are right, a doc is NK'd, leaving us at 4. Now, as soon as we lose just 1 more doc, we can't guarentee the saftey of the vigs.

[charter]

Yeah, and I also just thought what if the SK and scum target the same vig one night. It would condemn a possible doctor as well.

[Wall-E]

The doctor can die from protecting a double-killed player?!

[charter]

Hypothetical

No, but say we assign myself to protect Wall-E (who is one of two claimed vigs). I'm a doctor, but I'm the only one who is protecting Wall-E. Scum and SK try and kill Wall-E. Now we're down a vig and I'm the obvlynch for the next day.

/Hypothetical

[Kiro]

Telling two specific people to protect a claimed vig would also mean outing the doctors. And since Town doctors can be treated like Vanillas this game, that's just the safeclaim everyone could choose to use. I don't know if there's a systematic way to do that since you've got 3 Mafians, an SK, an maybe even 1 of the Vigs who won't/can't go along with the plan.

I wouldn't necessarily trust the first person to claim vig anyways. Could be scum trying to gain trust and the only way he would be found out is if the two real vigs both come out. And neither vig would know the first one is fake so they may just wait it out. Claiming vig feels like it could be used to rolefish and out the real vigs.

My general impression of this setup is that nothing too notable happens Day 1, then the first Night's gonna be some crazy crap shoot and we'll use the data from that to find the scum. Trying to plan something from the very start with no voting record/flips just gives scum more wiggle room to outplay us.

[Wall-E]

I think players should be forced to claim targets each day starting tomorrow morning. Thoughts?

[Kiro]

I think players should be forced to claim targets each day starting tomorrow morning. Thoughts?

Maybe... my first impression however, is that the scum can wait to see who claimed doing what first, and thus make an appropriate lie that incriminates them less or shifts blame onto someone else. Knowing that there will be liars in that group will just lead Town on a wild goose chase.

Gonna think about it some more.

[orangepenguin]

I will be a hero,
and will

vote: Kiro

[Wall-E]

I think players should be forced to claim targets each day starting tomorrow morning. Thoughts?

Maybe... my first impression however, is that the scum can wait to see who claimed doing what first, and thus make an appropriate lie that incriminates them less or shifts blame onto someone else. Knowing that there will be liars in that group will just lead Town on a wild goose chase.

Gonna think about it some more.

Then whatever order we claim in D1, we do the opposite D2, and then find a third lineup for D3...

This might take too much coordination.

Why the vote on Kiro?

[orangepenguin]

It was just a vote for the random stage,
I thought we were still in it despite it being on the second page.

[GnKoichi]

unvote: nameless

vote: charter

Going with a kind of connect 4 theory here, on who wants to risk getting closer to a high number this early (yeah, 3 is way not even close to 7, but we don't have a lot to go on right now). Also just trying to keep the votes spread until we get some more tells.

What's this idea with rotating protection? We could try it for this round at least. If people claim vig and we get three or four, that's still enough to keep them protected, even double protect two without having to out doctors (if all doctors focus on those four, they'll be protected with some natural overlap). Though I guess the flaw here is that also outs the doctors as easy targets that night. There's really no way to do this yet, is there?

[Wall-E]

Ok.

[Puta Puta]

oh hai

Vote: Stef

...random, lol

[Stef]

STOP VOTING ME GODDAMIT!!! Going to sleep Good night and have fun!

[Wall-E]

Scenario: The vigs claim. We townie docs all divide our protects over them secretly and randomly (coinflips work), a doc dies that night, the vigs have a pool of 10, of which three are scum, to vig from amongst. The mafia doc is protecting one of those, so the odds are 2/9 to kill a mafia (since one of the scum will be invulnerable: addendum: there is the chance both vigs target the same player and beat the protect, but that's longshot territory). 2/9 odds are fairly good, imo.

I dunno. What says a math person? Anyone here a math person?

[Wall-E]

EBWOP: 2/8 chance to hit a mafia (-1 dead town doc, -3 mafia, one of whom is near unkillable)

1/4 chance to hit mafia is pretty good. Better than 1/11, in a normal scenario with no vig claims.

There might be a gamebreaking strategy buried in this setup. I'm open to conjecture.

[GnKoichi]

It's not great odds, but I guess it's better than the normal odds, which would be... Well... chance of lynching a town by mistake first round is 2/3, right? So, chances are we're looking at being down 1 before the night even begins.

Then, if we don't claim vigs, we're just randomly protecting people, so it's likely we'll waste atleast one doc on a mafia or the sk. Then we're only half protected, and we've got four kills at night (right? 1 mafia, 1 sk, 2 vigs?) assuming we haven't lynched the sk or vigs. But the kills are also random. It's likely two will hit protected people, and two won't. Those unprotected people are more likely to be town, so it would not be very hard for us to end up with three dead docs on the morning of day 1.

If that makes sense, the vig claiming sounds better. But I may be missing something.

[Wall-E]

I have to play devil's advocate here and point out that we are discussing asking the only non-vanilla docs in the game to claim, a provably scummy desire in most setups. I'd like to hear from someone against this idea with a well reasoned case for why it's a bad one.

[Nameless]

I don't think it would be a good idea for anyone to claim this early. The problem isn't so much outing power roles per se, but even if you managed to effectively confirm the vigs it's going to be pretty obvious where most of the docs protection will be aiming. If the mafia/SK know this, they have a MUCH higher chance of their kills going through and even the vigs are now going to be targeting unprotected players. There's a massive amount WIFOM here, but I can't help but think claiming now is just going to end in more NKs and less discussed lynching.

Reasoned scumhunting > statistics, IMHO.