Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

Hello future ghost.

I think Kovu is the potentially the only player for whom that fact slipped by, if that was in fact legit. If the entire scum team missed it, they deserve to lose.

We also have a living bodyguard claim that should be protecting you

[Enchant]

What bodyguard

[Dunnstral]

I don't particularly believe the claim. I guess I'll just say now I'm a bodyguard. I don't think multiple protectives in a game is full-stop impossible: the first setup had two town bodyguards and one mafia one. But a doctor in combination with a bodyguard is a bit weird, even if the doctor is gated.

It's also why I was...not particularly concerned with being townread when I was getting wagoned, because my role has the potential to be self-resolving if I guess the correct nightkill target.

I was on Lukewarm night 1, because he was in my top townreads after Day 1 (how times change), was reasonably active, and didn't seem to be suspected by many people, so seemed a potential nightkill target. Kicking myself for not protecting LLD after she got N1'ed in DEFCON, but I really didn't think there was any chance she'd be the nightkill target after posting only 12 times, which is also why I was theorizing that most of the day 1 wagons were wrong. My invictus had been on dwlee, because I thought it most useful to resolve the counter wagon with the invictus kill.

Here

[Enchant]

And on 2 night?

[Dunnstral]

That is not claimed

[Gammagooey]

Dunn, you and Fey's posts Day 1 and Day 2 look to me like they could easily share a goal of interacting with marci while not actually applying any pressure to her at all (which I've gone over in my last big reads post with you and Fey in 2441). The other major issue I have is that except for your interactions on page 3 of the game, it doesn't seem like either of you two give any attempt to try to read the other until you come out with a case on her at the start of Day 3. Granted, I don't think Fey was ever a significant wagon on days 1 or 2, but you were, and when you were Fey just continued pushing Dwlee, mentioned that Meuh was an option she'd consider too, and once your wagon had passed you just both mention that you have the other as null.


I'm putting the interactions I found significant between you two below - If I missed any interactions before day 3 between you two that you think are significant, pull 'em up or give a post # and let me know
-You two had a little back and forth discussion on page 3 where you both townread each other
-There's a bit from you about Kovu/Fey being on alts in a different game
-You ask marci some questions that maybe could theoretically in the future lead to a scum read on marci but don't and Fey actively says that marci is town for not freezing up/meta/etc
-Fey puts you as flat null in her votecount analysis of the Day 1 Lavar/Dwlee wagons and doesn't mention you at all
-Dunn wagon starts with more people than gorilla+me around page 66, Fey had voted Dwlee earlier and continues pushing on him here

I was Dwlee’s partner in Geriatric, lmao.

Anyways.

Don’t be feely vote for Dwlee.

-You also don't mention Fey at all in your readslist when I finally drag it out of you day 2 in 1723
-Fey says to Dwlee she's pretty tunneled on them dying and that she'll entertain a Meuh wagon if people want to kill her, asks Dwlee what about the posts he quoted from Dunn are appeasing

Dwlee can you now explain how what you post in 1711 relates to this game

So you've pointed out something in another game, but where does it come up in this game? The so-called derisive OMGUS, as it were.

Also I'm interested in what the tonal differences you mentioned in 1660 are

You are being more differential I think. Like posts like these feel very appeasy is the way I would put it, which is also what Noraa has described as being your scum game

What part of these are appeasing...?

-You mention Fey again here

Fey, Enchant are null and I don't have a good grasp on them. Fey stands out as not usually being this reserved, I think.

-Fey mentions you here

Anyways,

Still voting Dwlee, if that wagon's not a thing then RIP. I don't actually know how to read Dunn.

If Meuh flares up I'll go there. Sure. Why not.

And I think that's it until Day 3 starts and you start with a case and a vote on her.

[Dunnstral]

I think your analysis fails to consider that we were both low posting on day 1, so you say "look, they ignored each other" a few times but it doesn't mean anything. Likewise I didn't push anybody strongly on day 1, and you're pointing to that for me being aligned with Marci. I don't mention Fey in my reads list because you asked me for my townreads and Fey was not one of those. Later I say they are null which explains why I also haven't pushed them either.

The page 3 stuff and the alts in a different game stuff I don't think are good points. Fey acting shady around me might be true, but that's not on my hands.

I don't think 1745 or 2061 are significant. Or rather, you haven't assigned any meaning to them. 1745 is a dig at Dwlee and also pointing out the obvious flaw in Dwlee's argument

[Dunnstral]

You said earlier that sircakez and fey are not likely to be aligned. Why? In fact Fey mentions SirCakez ONE TIME in the first 2 days of the game, and it's here:

Also I do think the Dwlee wagon is probably all pure, at max one scum on it. I'm working off the assumption that there are 4 scum in this game so maybe one on the Dwlee or not voting, the rest on the Lavar wagon to push it through because it really wasn't going anywhere. Probably in Gamma/Cakez if there is one but eh. I don't really feel like Kovu as scum just decides to start an EOD competing wagon to a town one. Just doesn't... feel like her from experience, but this is without a lot of back referencing.

The next time they mention SirCakez, it's today, on day 3, and it's a vote with little explanation beyond looking at the vc. And then they say to invictus shoot SirCakez after they flip, but that doesn't mean anything if they flip mafia, obviously. And then they move their vote from SirCakez from Gamma -> Unvote -> Enchant, even though they were talking about SirCakez definitely needing to go earlier.

So I'd say this is pretty plausible. At the very least there is

Cakez doesn't make sense as scum with my two strongest scumreads of Fey/Dunn

Why?

also if you swap Fey and enchant we're at almost the same place

also I think Val was towny even before the claim, what're your issues there? I still think you can easily be scum btw but S_S thinks you're pretty hard town so I'm deferring to him

~Rhyme

Fey & Dunn have both been going after Cakez from Day 2 and have continued to go after him today, Cakez has been pushing Dunn pretty solidly and repeatedly pushed to kill marci - i guess it's technically possible that their solution to salvage the game is/was "turn it into a big bussing clusterfuck" but I feel like it's rarer for scumteams to actually go for that than maybe it should be?

Val I also had as a town-lean and I haven't done much rereading on, though I don't think from memory that there's a ton to go on in previous days, just a few comments to marci that I think were meh contrasted with his day 2 posts seeming town but not outstandingly so. Regardless I'm confident on my Fey+Dunn reads that at least one of them is scum there and I personally think likely both, whereas assuming that I'm right on both of them my 4th scum read is more guessing than anything I'm willing to stake on atm.

OK, I'm going to do the thing.

Quote where Fey goes after SirCakez on day 2.

[Dunnstral]

I'll save people the effort. Day 2 starts at post 1154 and ends at 2225. Here are all of Fey's posts during day 2:

Spoiler:

You should probably explain that.

The info we get from it, the people behind the push and the nature of it being a flashwagon all point to it being a better wagon than Dwlee.

I don't think so. How are any of the factors you mentioned different between my wagon and the dwlee wagon?

(gorilla, Lukewarm, fireisredsir, Val89, Meuh, Dwlee99, Datisi, Bell) are the Lavar voters.
(Kovu, Fey, Lady Lambdadelta, Gammagooey, VP Baltar, SirCakez) are the Dwlee voters.

Now that's from Lukewarm's votecount and it was different at the time you asked, but the general idea stays the same. People I generally townread more and trust their judgement more on Lavar than on Dwlee.

I guess the Dwlee wagon was kind of a flashwagon? Though it seemed less fast, and is less good in response to another flashwagon if that makes any sense :lol:

People have more clearly defined their positions regarding you than regarding Dwlee. Thus, it gives more information.

The lack of re-evaluation in the face of a townflip and having said this is an atrocious look. You generally townread and trust them more, and they were wrong. But instead of considering "hm, these people I voted with, we killed a townie, what's going on there..." you instead choose to ignore that and go "yeah I think scum was farming towncred"?

That's the least charitable stance I think you could take; it's logical but in the context of a townflip you're just continuing down the same path you laid out yesterday which so far hasn't went so well.

Why do you think I'm scum on Dwlee's wagon, again? Why is Dwlee even town to begin with?

VOTE: Meuh

Val, I'd like to hear more of your thoughts now that Datisi is dead.

Same for you marci, since you both kind of tunneled there to the exclusion of a lot else yesterday.

Oh ok, you’re scum

Baltar immediately taking advantage of the death to shade other people

Equally I think this is an uncharitable evaluation of VP's post. Datisi is dead, people had takes around Datisi, some strong. It's natural to want to see how these people view things differently now that a slot that took up a lot of their thoughts is dead.

Player	Votes
LavarManos (11)	gorilla (790), Lukewarm (796), fireisredsir (800), Val89 (803), Meuh (822), Dwlee99 (953), Datisi (962), Bell (1014), Dunnstral (1090), VP Baltar (1123), Enchant (1134)
Dwlee99 (5)	Kovu (1009), Fey (1011), Lady Lambdadelta (1013), Gammagooey (1022), SirCakez (1034)
Datisi (2)	LavarManos (950), marcistar (1116)
Not Voting (2)	Malakittens (130), Rhyme and Reason (964)

I'm about here right now, readwise; I feel like a lot of these null ones will go one way or another throughout the day.

Few thoughts:

I don't think Dwlee's posts that you just quoted feel like town, Meuh. It's just justification for the Lavar votes and a bit of reconciliatory posting in 1054, but those don't do anything for me.

I also think LLD dying here means that she was the nightkill who shot Datisi, rather than the other way around. I think that points to what content she did give having been either 1) pointing correctly to Dwlee/Bell or 2) a frame, which... eh? I'm less inclined to think mafia wanted to frame than just kill someone who could exert a great deal of pressure on them when she's town.

Also I do think the Dwlee wagon is probably all pure, at max one scum on it. I'm working off the assumption that there are 4 scum in this game so maybe one on the Dwlee or not voting, the rest on the Lavar wagon to push it through because it really wasn't going anywhere. Probably in Gamma/Cakez if there is one but eh. I don't really feel like Kovu as scum just decides to start an EOD competing wagon to a town one. Just doesn't... feel like her from experience, but this is without a lot of back referencing.

Feels like I am doing some preflipping mentally so I'll sort that out through the day (Meuh scum attacking VP -> point to VP town but this is flimsy).

That's about it right now.

p-edit: I highly disagree with the idea that Lady's posting points to the people she voted being town. That seems backwards to me.

p-edit: I highly disagree with the idea that Lady's posting points to the people she voted being town. That seems backwards to me.

huh in what way? in my mind scum would avoid killing people who scumread them, so they don't die

Despite the Invictus shot being a threat, I don't think that people are going to just say "well, they -might- shoot us, so we can't kill them". It's probably on their minds the same way that catching any PR is, but... you can't just let them float along. Something about Lady's posting has to be threatening enough, I believe, to give them a reason to want her dead beyond just "well she's not gonna Invictus any of us so let's get her."

I’m struggling to word this but I think it’s a dangerous assumption to think a dead person’s scumreads are clearing; there is always the potential to be shot at night the same way you can be tracked/copped/etc, but like.

For LLD specifically I’m willing for now to accept that Bell is cleared for now by virtue of his actions. Sure. Bell was one of the people she suspected and did so with more... interaction? To it. Oomph. I think it is perhaps reasonable to assume she would have shot Bell... a town clearing PR.

But why exactly in this situation would a mafia Dwlee be cleared?? Like everyone’s kind of hand waving it imo. “Cleared because scumread” is such an insane thought process to me even factoring in the mechanics.

Also because “clearing” LLD’s scumreads narrows down the POE for a wagon that flipped town D1 and that is...???

Like to me this is indulging a bit in WIFOM I guess which, nose wrinkle, but everyone is kind of just going “yep they’re alllll cleared” and isn’t that... a risk worth taking for mafia if they can feel confident they won’t get shot, let alone any role that could protect people from a shot/stop it/etc?

Like if anyone has a ~really strong towncase~ or something for Dwlee I’d actually appreciate it versus just giving the pass for reasons I don’t think are strong. Meuh gave some at day start but I didn’t find it compelling.

Also it’s pretty hurtful even though it shouldn’t be to be told that because I don’t come to the same conclusions that I am... not trying to apply my logic even if it goes against the logic being seen as “correct” which is uh, perhaps why I might seem upsetish right now.

(Yes whatever random “AtE” but whether or not people agree with me I think it is just bad to clear on night kills alone and basically just feels like an entire aspect of why people die is being thrown out entirely.)

A Bell one was more telegraphed imho given her final posts which put more meat to the idea she disliked his posting versus a vote on Dwlee. Also that she had voted Bell before.

I do actually think though this might be more emblematic of my mafia game funnily enough because on Ydrasse I’m pretty go with the flow-y and throw thoughts out there but don’t try to do as much as I do here whereas as scum I am almost always doing something.

Maybe this is just a more lowkey FFXIV for me or something. But shrug I do t think that I can offer more than self rambling without back checking my games.

The strength it takes of me to open this game.

VOTE: Dwlee

Avengers assemble.

Arguments about who I'd kill are interesting given I certainly wouldn't be the one making the decision for who to kill given my activity

I've skimmed, ish, will try to be around later.

Idle thought that I had before but this post is weird. Kinda feels like wrong reasons irritation or not even irritation but like. *Hand waves.* Something in that world to me.

Arguments about who I'd kill are interesting given I certainly wouldn't be the one making the decision for who to kill given my activity

I've skimmed, ish, will try to be around later.

Idle thought that I had before but this post is weird. Kinda feels like wrong reasons irritation or not even irritation but like. *Hand waves.* Something in that world to me.

Wrong reasons irritation implies I'm town because the kill spec was all to say I was town

Irritation isn’t the right word but it’s the closest I can find to say this post feels like you’re looking at the town speculating about the night kill you would or wouldn’t make and this quip is like a bit... TMI I guess is better wording, that you know you didn’t have input on a night kill but you were witness to it all.

Sure, that’s a possibility too.

But the vibe I got erred towards it being out of place/weird feeling because it just was like... “Of all the things to comment on?”

Literally anything. You haven’t really given much as to your reads/thoughts/...anything beyond a few fleeting posts that aren’t helpful in terms of like. Solving. (Why am I partnered with/nightkill comments are interesting/the tell thing with Gamma.)

Like you just don’t seem to care... at all about doing so much as voting and I don’t see a reason not to pressure you. I get that you’re busy IRL but even the popins you do throw in are... tepid.

I was Dwlee’s partner in Geriatric, lmao.

Anyways.

Don’t be feely vote for Dwlee.

Dwlee can you now explain how what you post in 1711 relates to this game

So you've pointed out something in another game, but where does it come up in this game? The so-called derisive OMGUS, as it were.

Also I'm interested in what the tonal differences you mentioned in 1660 are

You are being more differential I think. Like posts like these feel very appeasy is the way I would put it, which is also what Noraa has described as being your scum game

What part of these are appeasing...?

Skimmed blah blah still want kill Dwlee. Kinda feel like Meuh has +equity if Dwlee flips maf or whatever the kids say for the back and forth on Dunn and Dwlee but now “reconsidering” and then going to Dwlee at the end where their elim feels a lot more probable. Or maybe Meuh is just a waffle wolf. Whom knows!

Skimmed blah blah still want kill Dwlee. Kinda feel like Meuh has +equity if Dwlee flips maf or whatever the kids say for the back and forth on Dunn and Dwlee but now “reconsidering” and then going to Dwlee at the end where their elim feels a lot more probable. Or maybe Meuh is just a waffle wolf. Whom knows!

Help me bus question mark

Three dots followed by thinking emoji.

I’m pretty tunneled in on you dying today.

If people want to kill Meuh I’ll entertain the wagon.

@Dwlee I’m like half paying attention but I think that your vibes here aren’t what I’m used to from you being town and it did harken a bit to the Geriatric. I disagree with the appeasy characterization and overall Im just eh I guess.

Can give more attention l8r.

Scum me has fun and goes wild.

As it is I'm waiting 'till tomorrow to get into things, yes I have a reason, yes you can ask me about it tomorrow.

I sure did.

Unwnd's my little scrunkly.

Scum me has fun and goes wild.

As it is I'm waiting 'till tomorrow to get into things, yes I have a reason, yes you can ask me about it tomorrow.

I don't actually remember scum you ever having fun. But I'm glad you probably had fun as scum at one point and I hope this is true irregardless.

I'm powerful now and openwolf.

Awoo.

Anyways,

Still voting Dwlee, if that wagon's not a thing then RIP. I don't actually know how to read Dunn.

If Meuh flares up I'll go there. Sure. Why not.

Fey mentions SirCakez one time during day 2. This is the full post:

Player	Votes
LavarManos (11)	gorilla (790), Lukewarm (796), fireisredsir (800), Val89 (803), Meuh (822), Dwlee99 (953), Datisi (962), Bell (1014), Dunnstral (1090), VP Baltar (1123), Enchant (1134)
Dwlee99 (5)	Kovu (1009), Fey (1011), Lady Lambdadelta (1013), Gammagooey (1022), SirCakez (1034)
Datisi (2)	LavarManos (950), marcistar (1116)
Not Voting (2)	Malakittens (130), Rhyme and Reason (964)

I'm about here right now, readwise; I feel like a lot of these null ones will go one way or another throughout the day.

Few thoughts:

I don't think Dwlee's posts that you just quoted feel like town, Meuh. It's just justification for the Lavar votes and a bit of reconciliatory posting in 1054, but those don't do anything for me.

I also think LLD dying here means that she was the nightkill who shot Datisi, rather than the other way around. I think that points to what content she did give having been either 1) pointing correctly to Dwlee/Bell or 2) a frame, which... eh? I'm less inclined to think mafia wanted to frame than just kill someone who could exert a great deal of pressure on them when she's town.

Also I do think the Dwlee wagon is probably all pure, at max one scum on it. I'm working off the assumption that there are 4 scum in this game so maybe one on the Dwlee or not voting, the rest on the Lavar wagon to push it through because it really wasn't going anywhere. Probably in Gamma/Cakez if there is one but eh. I don't really feel like Kovu as scum just decides to start an EOD competing wagon to a town one. Just doesn't... feel like her from experience, but this is without a lot of back referencing.

Feels like I am doing some preflipping mentally so I'll sort that out through the day (Meuh scum attacking VP -> point to VP town but this is flimsy).

That's about it right now.

p-edit: I highly disagree with the idea that Lady's posting points to the people she voted being town. That seems backwards to me.

And here is Fey's day 3 push on SirCakez:

Quick glance at EOD VC, I’ll support a Meuh wagon too.

VOTE: SirCakez

If you’re going to fucking vote me put your Invictus shot on SirCakez.

If you’re going to fucking vote me put your Invictus shot on SirCakez.

I will put this on every single page.

Friendly reminder SirCakez should be shot tonight.

VOTE: Gamma

If this was Gamma playing well and slipping I am So Sorry.

Laaaaaaame.

UNVOTE:

So we should vote Enchant.

VOTE: Enchanr

We should just stop saying blah blah Invictus Enchant he will be taken care of and just kill him.

Which starts out with little explanation being given, just a push and saying to kill SirCakez after them (which as I said, doesn't actually mean anything if Fey flips scum, it certainly doesn't mean the two can't be scum together). And ends in smoothly transitioning to somebody else when given the chance. Nobody even called them out on it! If they're so sure SirCakez is flipping scum, why are they voting for Enchant right now and going completely silent as I almost get eliminated?

I know I talked about fey a lot there but don't let that distract you from the fact that Gammagooey is making things up as they go along. Something that I've proven I will almost always spot and call out, by the way.

Heck, they spend hours meticulously crafting their walls of text in their private topic, but they didn't spend a few minutes using the search function in Fey's iso and just winged it and said these two can't be scum together

without actually checking

?

[Dunnstral]

Or is Gammagooey arguing that posts 1178, 2282, 2368, 2377, 2466 combined is enough to say that they "don't make sense" as scum together?

[Dunnstral]

Can someone scumcase me further than "Enchant is scum", i love reading jokes.

@Gammagooey
@SirCakez
@Fey

You are the designated someones, as the three pushing Enchant in some capacity today. Give us some reasoning and don't just ignore this.

[Enchant]

VOTE: Gorilla

Imo, probably will again be solo, but will stay here before gorilla claiming n2.

[Fey]

Most of this game is vibes for me.

Just feels like Enchant is being very noisy and loud. And not contributing too much. Which while I think some people might go “yeah duh” from past experience I’m reminded more the scum!Enchant who repped into PYP and just yelled a lot and did... about the same frankly here as there.

Tangentially he’s also being defended by Gamma. I try not to preflip thoigh even if it’s tempting.

Also r.e SirCakez I think I got more into the idea of him being scum today when I got the sense that he was avoiding the game a bit, hands off, etc. I’ve got my Invictus shot at him still and that probably won’t change but again, echoes of games past. FFXIV was different circumstances in that I had a hard guilty on him so he had to react more aggressively there and here it feels softer so... eh still thinking about that. Willing to cede ground a bit and let him do the neighborize thing.

[Enchant]

Most of this game is vibes for me.

Just feels like Enchant is being very noisy and loud.

*Inhales*
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Fey]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Enchant]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Sheep me on Gorilla pls

[Fey]

I can’t I’m sorry.

UNVOTE:

[Bell]

That was pretty funny yeh.

[Bell]

Can sircakez die now since he is not producing anything.
And thereby he is not reaching mena’s request to town tell.
Pinkie swear this is the last time I’ll be insistent this game.

[Val89]

Imo, probably will again be solo, but will stay here before gorilla claiming n2.

What are you hoping to achieve by having gorilla claim their N2?

Can sircakez die now since he is not producing anything.

+1.

[Enchant]

Imo, probably will again be solo, but will stay here before gorilla claiming n2.

What are you hoping to achieve by having gorilla claim their N2?

Can sircakez die now since he is not producing anything.

+1.

Understand why people don't protect claimed vigilantes.

[Val89]

Why didn't you protect X is a legitimate question, although not to speak for gorilla, I think the answer to that one is rather obvious, given the interactions between the two D2.

Asking gorilla to claim who they were on instead seems to risk leaking info that might be useful to scum for not a lot of town benefit, to me.

To be clear, I harbour a little bit of paranoia toward gorilla myself, but it's not someone I expect to endgame with that claim. It's one that is likley to resolve itself either way and soon.

[gorilla]

VOTE: Gorilla

Imo, probably will again be solo, but will stay here before gorilla claiming n2.

I already said it was on Kovu at the start of this day. I'm not sure what you were hoping to get out of this.

Can sircakez die now since he is not producing anything.
And thereby he is not reaching mena’s request to town tell.
Pinkie swear this is the last time I’ll be insistent this game.

VOTE: cakez

Sure. I'm perfectly willing to follow you and trust you more than most here.

[gorilla]

Imo, probably will again be solo, but will stay here before gorilla claiming n2.

What are you hoping to achieve by having gorilla claim their N2?

Can sircakez die now since he is not producing anything.

+1.

Understand why people don't protect claimed vigilantes.

Because he was shielding my scumreads and generally not being helpful, and I found it far more important to protect a strong townread whose judgment I actually found trustworthy. We had a number of likely town players off the flip yesterday and I wanted to protect one that would actually be useful.

[Enchant]

Imo, probably will again be solo, but will stay here before gorilla claiming n2.

What are you hoping to achieve by having gorilla claim their N2?

Can sircakez die now since he is not producing anything.

+1.

Understand why people don't protect claimed vigilantes.

Because he was shielding my scumreads and generally not being helpful, and I found it far more important to protect a strong townread whose judgment I actually found trustworthy. We had a number of likely town players off the flip yesterday and I wanted to protect one that would actually be useful.

My vote is locked.