Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Roden]

I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie. I think their frustration with this Day phase is also genuine. Going back further, though I don't think STD is scum, I do think Mena's case on him came from a solvey mindset.

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

i have an iso >.> but basically, thinking mena is town for [meta reasons that seem to not vibe with anyone other than skitter], ari is town for the way she played d1. have been thinking skitter is most likely scum in the coalition for a while (but i've kinda liked her more recent posting i guess??? jury's still out), and getting increasingly nervous about irrel

outside the coalition, thinking fire is town but fuck if i know about the other three -- std is more likely to be town than the other two i guess but i am v low confidence on all of those

I actually did read your ISO, I just wanted an updated take since EoD is approaching and you've been fence sitting.

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum, and everyone here is competent enough to coach him to not flail with his reads/solves going into Day 2. Fire is null to me only because they didn't seem to have the spotlight at all so far. I agree with STD likely being town, but disagree with your Skitter scum read, consensus nominations tend to be town and nothing in her ISO sticks out as scummy to me.

I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari, and while I agree, I think it's odd that no one really seemed to push you two. It's too late in the day to do it now, but you two should've been leading wagons imo, that would've given everyone plenty of info seeing who would push who and if your wagons would naturally dissipate. If you were both town, I believe scum would see you two as the optimal push on Day 2, and if I'm right on NK15 being town then scum likely would've backed him when he scum cased the two of you. I just don't see how there could be zero momentum towards wagoning either of you if you're both town and part of the coalition.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

quoting these two posts, again, for emphasis

this is still just really hard for me to see as town.

before bloodhail: vaguely says that there's probably 1 scum between datisi and ari, but wants to vote irrel (and the nk read is still probably tmi lol)

after bloodhail: says that irrel slot is now town, and is glad to see bloodhail agreeing with his reads (??), and votes datisi

that's just not a town progression. that's scum quickly trying to reposition after a replacement massively changes the gamestate

Actually I'll respond to this because the answer here is obvious and I already answered this before

Do you think town!me can 1v8 Datisi at the last 24 hours of the Day when there are already two leading wagons and everyone has already made it clear that they're terrified of hurting Datisi's feelings by voting him

[Roden]

Can anyone explain why they think I bus Datisi instead of just voting out Elephant and setting up Mena as the next mis-elim?

bc once bloodhail comes in with a scumread on datisi, datisi like almost always dies there? based on gamestate and how people were responding to him, even if he dies first datisi prob flips next, and you would want to be on that early

your trajectory was heading towards irrel until bloodhail showed up, and then you followed him onto datisi

Nah, Datisi lives without my vote there. Blood would've been at 4 votes at EoD if I voted there instead. I'm the only one who actually kept my vote on Datisi, without that momentum Blood just dies.

Also let's not pretend you all were itching to vote Datisi. You weren't. And if you think really think Datisi couldn't work his way back into being a town read then you're massively underestimating him. Especially since Mena literally always dies after an Elephant mis-elim, if you disagree then show the posts that were against that yesterday.

Y'all were absolutely terrified of voting Datisi yesterday and hurting his feelings if he actually flipped town. If that weren't true the leading wagons wouldn't have been Mena vs Elephant.

[Roden]

Show me a scum game of mine where my partner was town read and I was scum read and decided to game theow by bussing my partner despite them having a much higher chance of winning

[Roden]

viewtopic.php?t=87700&f=54&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Oh hey look, a game where I did the complete opposite and bussed myself to save my partner who was about to get eliminated, who then went on to win the game

[Save The Dragons]

I don't see the game that way

[fireisredsir]

me neither

in this setup you're never going to die before datisi so the counterexample isn't even relevant

let's say you elim bloodhail. nightkill, idk, me or std. you maaaybe can get a mena elim next, but people are going to remember the bloodhail scumread on datisi and will be itching for that. even if you manage it, then you nk another outside the coalition.

i don't think that datisi ever will outlast skitter/ari in that situation, and after he dies you have, what, you and nk left? after you explicitly saved datisi by being the deciding vote to elim bloodhail, silencing someone who was scumreading scum?

i just don't really think that game path looks very promising for you two as a scum team

[fireisredsir]

also we're literally all outside the coalition and voted datisi. so somebody bussed.

[fireisredsir]

what reads specifically did bloodhail agree with you on?

[fireisredsir]

I'll respond when you guys actually talk to and question each other

this also isn't town mentality. town would know that one of us is scum. you're just shading both of us equally as if we're teamed up against you

you're not trying to solve or even caring about if we're solving or not, you're just trying to make us feel like we're playing poorly without any consideration to the fact that, from your town pov, one of us is town

[Roden]

I don't see the game that way

Go on.

me neither

in this setup you're never going to die before datisi so the counterexample isn't even relevant

let's say you elim bloodhail. nightkill, idk, me or std. you maaaybe can get a mena elim next, but people are going to remember the bloodhail scumread on datisi and will be itching for that. even if you manage it, then you nk another outside the coalition.

i don't think that datisi ever will outlast skitter/ari in that situation, and after he dies you have, what, you and nk left? after you explicitly saved datisi by being the deciding vote to elim bloodhail, silencing someone who was scumreading scum?

i just don't really think that game path looks very promising for you two as a scum team

Why would you or STD die first? NK's would be Skitter > STD.

I don't see how the example doesn't work. You're claiming I bussed Datisi, the example shows I'd save him. Do you seriously think it's impossible for me to...not, vote him? Is it impossible for me to vouch for him and just vote out Elephant? Even if Blood replaced in first, it wouldn't have been hard to force the elim through since the Day was almost over.

And if people doubted Datisi afterwards...so what? Blood's reads were only relevant because he flipped scum and stuck around for most of the game. If he dies sooner, why does anyone believe his reads so passionately that they wagon out Datisi?

Did anyone take anyone else's legacy reads into account? What about NK15, who correctly deduced that Datisi was scum? What about Mena, the first one to die?

Without any information, nobody has any reason to take Blood's legacy reads any more seriously than anyone else's. We all know this, and it's ridiculous to try to claim otherwise.

[Roden]

what reads specifically did bloodhail agree with you on?

I think all of them except NK15. I made my reads list before Blood replaced in.

[Roden]

I'll respond when you guys actually talk to and question each other

this also isn't town mentality. town would know that one of us is scum. you're just shading both of us equally as if we're teamed up against you

you're not trying to solve or even caring about if we're solving or not, you're just trying to make us feel like we're playing poorly without any consideration to the fact that, from your town pov, one of us is town

Maybe because one of you is playing poorly. Maybe I'm fucking frustrated that I played out of my fucking mind with almost perfect reads for the first in a very long time after a string of bad town games, and now I'm getting shit on for it. Maybe I'm mad that I offered to fucking die yesterday to avoid this stupid Elo and y'all said no and you're doing exactly what I said would happen.

[fireisredsir]

what reads specifically did bloodhail agree with you on?

I think all of them except NK15. I made my reads list before Blood replaced in.

his top scumreads were datisi/mala/nk15.

your top scumread was him. you said that nk15 was obvtown. the only other suspicion you had mentioned was that you kinda thought there was 1 among datisi/ari. your mena townread was based on preflipping irrel as scum.

those aren't very similar reads

[Roden]

what reads specifically did bloodhail agree with you on?

I think all of them except NK15. I made my reads list before Blood replaced in.

his top scumreads were datisi/mala/nk15.

your top scumread was him. you said that nk15 was obvtown. the only other suspicion you had mentioned was that you kinda thought there was 1 among datisi/ari. your mena townread was based on preflipping irrel as scum.

those aren't very similar reads

I didn't scum read Elephant or Blood, the fuck?

[Save The Dragons]

I think bloodhail pushed datisi with enough force to get it done

I think no one was scared of hurting datisis feelings and no one was not voting him for that reason

I think if town you thought it was datisi then saying you were going to vote elephant makes little sense

I don't think because you did it once is a good indicator of what you'd do in this situation

[Save The Dragons]

You said you were going to vote elephant

[Roden]

I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie. I think their frustration with this Day phase is also genuine. Going back further, though I don't think STD is scum, I do think Mena's case on him came from a solvey mindset.

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

i have an iso >.> but basically, thinking mena is town for [meta reasons that seem to not vibe with anyone other than skitter], ari is town for the way she played d1. have been thinking skitter is most likely scum in the coalition for a while (but i've kinda liked her more recent posting i guess??? jury's still out), and getting increasingly nervous about irrel

outside the coalition, thinking fire is town but fuck if i know about the other three -- std is more likely to be town than the other two i guess but i am v low confidence on all of those

I actually did read your ISO, I just wanted an updated take since EoD is approaching and you've been fence sitting.

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum, and everyone here is competent enough to coach him to not flail with his reads/solves going into Day 2. Fire is null to me only because they didn't seem to have the spotlight at all so far. I agree with STD likely being town, but disagree with your Skitter scum read, consensus nominations tend to be town and nothing in her ISO sticks out as scummy to me.

I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari, and while I agree, I think it's odd that no one really seemed to push you two. It's too late in the day to do it now, but you two should've been leading wagons imo, that would've given everyone plenty of info seeing who would push who and if your wagons would naturally dissipate. If you were both town, I believe scum would see you two as the optimal push on Day 2, and if I'm right on NK15 being town then scum likely would've backed him when he scum cased the two of you. I just don't see how there could be zero momentum towards wagoning either of you if you're both town and part of the coalition.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

Where does this say I scum read Elephant or Blood

[Roden]

You said you were going to vote elephant

Quote it.

[fireisredsir]

I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie.

you said that mena was town bc he wasn't partnered with irrel. later in that post you were planning to vote irrel. how else should that be interpreted?

[fireisredsir]

You said you were going to vote elephant

Quote it.

you just did...

[Save The Dragons]

it's on this freaken page quoted by you and the previous page quoted by me

[Roden]

I think bloodhail pushed datisi with enough force to get it done

I think no one was scared of hurting datisis feelings and no one was not voting him for that reason

I think if town you thought it was datisi then saying you were going to vote elephant makes little sense

I don't think because you did it once is a good indicator of what you'd do in this situation

Yeah I don't believe that.

sorry I just don't think those things are alignment indicative for him

ii just can't see it that i way. i understand what you're saying but i don't think it's as bad for him as you say it is

but again you actually took the time to talk to me about it so i appreciate it it's datisi and skitter who have just ignored all attempts irrel and i had to make cases against mena and who the hell knows where NK15 is at

the fact that mena is being townread by both replacements is devastating because maybe i'm just wrong and i don't really know what to do from there

I'm willing to do Mena still if that's an option but I dunno if theres enough desire there and I just don't know if I'm just wrong even though I agree with your points

What's the count

I dunno I dunno I dunno

[Save The Dragons]

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today,

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: Roden

[fireisredsir]

im town