Newbie 682 - Mayhem in Umore - Game Over, Scum Win!

[Mirth]

actually, nur, there is a way to play it. do a no-kill one of the nights, force a 4 person lylo, claim a guilty.

[nureins]

I wouldnt follow an "uncleared" cop in mylo. At this moment, I would ask the fourth player if he/she is doc. The fourth townie has no reason to lie. The truth reveals and mafia loses.

[Corvuus]

Wait. Things seemed to go a bit fast for me to understand.

First of all, this is a newbie game right? So we 100% know the various possible setups. So because of mafia RB dying we know we are in game setup A.

I don't know how we would have posted asking for cop to come out in day 2 since
1. we didn't know there *has* to be a cop until RB was lynched.
2. When the mod reported the RB mafia lynch, he said it was night and locked the thread.

So i don't remember there being a 'twilight'.

I don't get the whole mafia-cop type conversation. You are saying the final mafia member (this is a newbie game) would have claimed cop if I asked cop to claim? Wouldn't they get counter-claimed and thus auto-hung in the next 2 days at some point?

So it would have been a win for us no matter what if cop wasn't lynched.

-------

It might be a scummy question to ask you why you claim town instead of doc but I just wanted to understand something.

Let me put it another way then. I already thought of the scenarios that Nur outlined and what a person would do in each. So regardless of what your alignment is, it doesn't really make much of a difference regardless of what you claim.

but then you claimed ANYWAYS. You said because you are at L-1 but still, I just don't see why you would post that at all since regardless of what you claimed (doc or townie) it wouldn't really change that much.

So that is what I want to understand. if it doesn't help, then why do it?

Corvuus

[Mirth]

no, cor, in this setup it is possible for there to be an rb without a cop, hence a risk-taking scum player could fakeclaim.

i claimed because it is what is done at l-1. even if its a token claim like the one i made, it is still done.

[nureins]

...

Lets simplify. After RB dies, we can be in setup with cop and doc or in setup without them. Imagine you ask publicly:

Any cop ?

a) if there is a cop and doc, then it goes as u imagine.
b) if there is none, then mirth suggests that mafia could use the chance by claiming cop.

But in case b), this ends up with an easy win for town. If mafia survives until the last day and

i) 3 players. Then it is absurd. The other two players are villagers and not docs, so they can only think that Mafia is mafia and claimed falsely cop.

ii) 4 players. Then, if Mafia tries to lynch an innocent (X), X says, hey, im townie. If you want to lynch me, who is the doc ???? so they realize that Mafia is mafia-cop.

In any case, town wins. So I think your idea was good. Unfortunately, Mafia killed our cop.

[Mirth]

except that nur is forgetting to take into account how gullible some people can be and the importance of timing. it is a risky gambit, but it is possible to pull off. [seriously, you sometimes might be surprised with how people are in regards to claimed powerroles, and impatience once won me a game where i pretty much was obviously scum since day 1 in the past]

i just prefer powerroles stay hidden until it becomes completely necessary to come out

[massive]

The Ostensible-Yet-Effluvious Vote Count

Mirth (3) » nureins, Corvuus, seb456zig
caf19 (1) » Zeppo007

With seven alive, it takes four to lynch. caf19 didn't pick up his prod, so I'm replacement-hunting.

[Corvuus]

no, cor, in this setup it is possible for there to be an rb without a cop, hence a risk-taking scum player could fakeclaim.

i claimed because it is what is done at l-1. even if its a token claim like the one i made, it is still done.

Oh I get it.

Mirth's main point is that I am already using knowledge of Fancy's alignment to know it is cop-doc and RB when if we lynched RB and random non-town power role then it could be all townie situation.

Then I would ask cop to claim and if we were in a cop-doc situation and the remaining scum did a 'cop claim' then he would be killed fairly quickly.

BUT

If I ask cop to claim and we are all townies, then the final scum can claim cop and no one would auto counter-claim him and we wouldn't know he was lying about the setup since no cop or doc. We would find it unusual that there is no doc but then we wouldn't know since doc wouldn't claim, etc. etc.

...

but in the end, at some point the cop will have given several wrong investigations, mislynch so we would kill him eventually so I don't see it as being a winning move for mafia either way.

Corvuus

P.S. are we waiting for replacement before voting/ending day?

[Zeppo007]

At this point I am waiting. Although I could see the same thing happening that happened when myself and Corv replaced (Caf's replacement Hammering). I would advise Caf's eventual replacement to avoid this tactic since Caf has got some suspicion on him right now and if Mirth is telling the truth it would look rather scummy.

[dejkha]

dej 397; im going to say something that nur will surely take out of context here, but if i were scum, i wouldn't even dream of killing him after yesterday's exchange. to off someone just because they suspect you is poor strategy. especially when theres a good change to get them lynched.

Exactly. I think it goes without saying that if one of you were NKed, then the other would've been lynched, thus making it a bad move if either of you are scum.

At this point I would like to hear Mirth's thought on who she sees (other than Nureins) as likely scum. I would also like to hear more from Dej, Seb and Caf on what they think of the possible Mirth lynch and also their thoughts on myself and Corvuus since there wasn't much to go on from Day 1.

As I said earlier, seeing how things are going, it would be bad if they were both lynched/NKed and neither of them were scum. They both have a fairly high amount of suspicion on them from most people, from what I gather. Mirth being lynched, would likely mean that Nur is next and hopefully it would end by that time.

As for you and Corv, neither of you seem very scummy to me and you're both active participants in the game, so that's good.

Mirth:
So why didn't you claim doc (whether you are townie or mafia)?

That would be a huge problem if she is just a normal townie. Claiming doc would likely make the real doc to reveal himself in order to get the lynch and win the game. But the problem is, claiming doc (as a townie) would bring out the real doc and more than likely get him NKed in the process.

[nureins]

I would advise Caf's eventual replacement to avoid this tactic since Caf has got some suspicion on him right now

Caf is likely townie for most players up to now. "some suspicion" on him is a vague term that does not reflect his current position. Moreover, if the only source of suspicion is the fact that he is not writting in day 2, this can be easily explained. Since october 22nd, he has posted only one 2-line post in all mafiascum. Consistently, he is going to be replaced. Therefore, I do not see at all suspicions around him.

[Zeppo007]

I would advise Caf's eventual replacement to avoid this tactic since Caf has got some suspicion on him right now

Caf is likely townie for most players up to now. "some suspicion" on him is a vague term that does not reflect his current position. Moreover, if the only source of suspicion is the fact that he is not writting in day 2, this can be easily explained. Since october 22nd, he has posted only one 2-line post in all mafiascum. Consistently, he is going to be replaced. Therefore, I do not see at all suspicions around him.

True. What I was advising against was for his replacement to come in and Hammer with little or no explanation on his/her thought process. When I hammered on Day 1 we had a player who had claimed mafia and further discussion was moot. At this point I just want some thoughts about who the likely suspects are just in case we lose this player to a NK like we lost Fancy.

[caf19]

Ahem. Hello, everyone. Apologies for my absence - I got called away unexpectedly due to family matters a few days ago, and never got the chance to post my thoughts (I've written most of them down on notepad, incidentally, so all is not lost). If it's not too late for me to keep playing, I can still post them.

[massive]

No complaints here, I'll take down my replacement request.

[Zeppo007]

Welcome back Caf. Hope everything is OK.

[Mirth]

I would advise Caf's eventual replacement to avoid this tactic since Caf has got some suspicion on him right now

Caf is likely townie for most players up to now. "some suspicion" on him is a vague term that does not reflect his current position. Moreover, if the only source of suspicion is the fact that he is not writting in day 2, this can be easily explained. Since october 22nd, he has posted only one 2-line post in all mafiascum. Consistently, he is going to be replaced. Therefore, I do not see at all suspicions around him.

except you're misrepresenting what i said about caf entirely. he has been rather bleh and fence-sitty in his posts, which is why i think he should be at least watched and not written off like you're doing now. unless you know for a fact he's town.

[nureins]

I would advise Caf's eventual replacement to avoid this tactic since Caf has got some suspicion on him right now

Caf is likely townie for

most

players up to now. "some suspicion" on him is a vague term that does not reflect his current position. Moreover, if the only source of suspicion is the fact that he is not writting in day 2, this can be easily explained. Since october 22nd, he has posted only one 2-line post in all mafiascum. Consistently, he is going to be replaced. Therefore, I do not see at all suspicions around him.

except you're misrepresenting what i said about caf entirely. he has been rather bleh and fence-sitty in his posts, which is why i think he should be at least watched and not written off like you're doing now. unless you know for a fact he's town.

My words were an answer to zeppo's.
I said Most, not ALL.
Watch him...prepare a case and present it...

[seb456zig]

Okay, im back.
PC works now.
I should be able to go on at least once a day now.

I don't really have anything to say about this, I just want people to know that I'm here now, so if anyone thinks I'm scum ill be more than happy to answer any questions you throw at me, but as for the current situation the only thing I know is that there is a doctor and a mafia goon among us. I would suggest that if someone claims doctor and then someone else counterclaims then i guess we should kill both (just to be on the safe side). Until someone mentions me directly I'll be lurking.

[Mirth]

lurking is never a protown thing to do. what do you think is the best course of action after i am lynched

[caf19]

I still have some reading to do, but here's an outline of my opinion so far. It's late, and some of this was copy/pasted, so apologies if it fails to make sense at points (feel free to ask questions, obv).

We lost a cop last night, which is somewhat unfortunate, but it does mean we also have a doc. Not much else for us to go on there. Moving on...

What we're looking for here is players with connections to Chuck. Have to say, I buy nureins' defence that he wouldn't just bus his scumbuddy out of the blue. In that hypothetical situation, town-seb would have been an obvious lynch for the mafia to push. Obviously nur being scum isn't impossible, but the evidence is enough to push him down my current suspicion list.

The problem with Chuck's full-blown admission of scum role is that nobody could even try to defend him. As he basically had a 100% chance of being lynched from the point he made the admission, his buddy is just as likely as everyone else to be calling for his blood - we can't look for players being reluctant to lynch him in the later stages. To that effect, I believe the earlier stages of Day 1 may be important in determining our next move. Some notes on yesterday:

- Post 31: Chuck's townie-scum list. This should probably be relegated to a minor piece of evidence due to people not being active at that point, but it's worth noting that nur is on the scum list even way back here. This just makes it less likely that nur is scum, in my mind.
- 93, 147: Chuck's FoS and vote of seb. He doesn't shy away from joining the fast-assembling wagon, foregrounding his suspicion with the repeated FoSing and so on. Seems more like scum trying to sink a townie than bussing.

To me, chuck was probably exercising the classic scum strategy of attacking townies while staying away from mentions of his partner. People Chuck expressed suspicion of on D1: nureins (multiple occasions including a vote), seb (multiple occasions including a vote), Mr. A (post 31, then 195),

cute.without.e

(post 152). To that effect, I can begin to narrow down my preferred lynch list to Mirth, Zeppo, dejkha.

Looking through Mirth's posts, I can't help but echo what others have said, that she focused a lot of her criticism/suspicion on him but seemed to hold back when it came to actually doing something about it. Such as this line from 154:

I don't think Chuck deserves an FOS yet, but I am not happy with his action.

Between post 200 and the admission in 264, Mirth makes (by my count) seven posts to/about Chuck, and never gets particularly harsh. Posts 201, 207, 220 and 223 are confined to game mechanics-related complaining; posts 225 and 238 are questioning (Chuck answers the questions and Mirth doesn't react to the answers), and 240 is a sarcastic remark related to Chuck's vote on nur.

Compare that to her quickness to chastise and vote the previous time someone in this thread was being stupid, seb456zig. A vote is placed pretty immediately and Mirth makes comments such as these:

Second of all, wtf? What is this post supposed to mean? In your next post you say you missed the second page, so you're wagoning for the sake of wagoning here. This bothers me immensely since you're ready to kill this early in the game before everyone has even turned up. And "you can die so I don't" is in no way protown. Your unvote also bothers me since you admit to not paying attention and then vote Nur without giving a reason ready to kill him off. If you think we should give everyone a chance, why are you ready to kill now?

Understand what exactly? That you're not addressing my critique of your actions and instead uttering platitudes that are rather irrelevant?

Compare also to Mirth's reaction after Chuck gives in, i.e. when there is no saving him: (the below is selected quotations from 270, I encourage you to go read the full original)

Now this here is crap logic. Anger is not necessarily scummy and not all scum get angry when voted. You lose. Thank you for playing. Enjoy your year's supply of turtle wax.

WTH? If you're going to vote him can you explain to us in small clear word what makes him worthy of a vote. Also please refrain from the cursing at other players thing. It is rude.

this reaks of craplogic (he's scum because he's attacking me) and appeal to emotion (wah he's mean) I do not like it one bit.

Scathing stuff.

I will say that Mirth is not

obvious

scum, as she was somewhat justified in her hardness towards seb and post-admission Chuck, and also she's been a fairly helpful player outside of her connections to the scum. However, said connection is currently looking quite strong. Prior to his admission, Mirth seemed to want to distance herself from Chuck while not being at all eager to actually vote for him. On the other side of the equation, Chuck wasn't interested in attacking her either. It may sound like I'm just following nureins on this one, but to me there is solid evidence for it.

That's all on Mirth - I need to read more fully on dejkha and Zeppo before pronouncing any further judgment. At this stage, the Mirth lynch gets my support, but let's delay it for a bit while I get fully up to date.

Regarding me, I don't think I have played an obvtown game so a bit of suspicion is to be expected I guess. From as objective a point of view I can manage, however, there are better choices than me for killin'.


PS go Obama!

[seb456zig]

lurking is never a protown thing to do. what do you think is the best course of action after i am lynched

I dunno, if you are innocent (which you're not) i would most probably vote nureins because of your hunch (lol, i shouldnt be voting based on an IC's hunch alone but nur does sometimes act anti-town {not pro-mafia tho}.)

Anyway i think you should say something before you die
eg:If i am proved innocent I will lower taxes, and give $10,000 to single parents. VOTE ME, Sebastian

PS: McCain ftw

[Mirth]

i'm not? you're sure of this? hammer me then. and never go off what another player tells you, ic or not. what d YOU think

and can we please not get into politics here.

[Corvuus]

.... so tempted to change vote to sebastion for the 10,000!!!!

just kidding.

Yes, it is election day in the U.S. so get out the vote, but we don't need to say more than that.

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I still don't like the 'chain' voting that we are doing.

I.e.

We hang mirth.

If wrong, then we hang Nur.

If wrong, then we hang rand(player), etc.

I think we should stay away from "spin the bottle" mafia where we hang based on that.

So while I do think Mirth is the lynch for today (and I do agree with various reasons put forth), I am worried about the attitude of "playing the whole game out to it's conclusion" and just stating things as a forgone conclusion.

town should never 'willingly' let themselves be led into this type of situation and it bothers me. If mirth is the scum, then this discussion is perhaps moot, but if she isn't, then tomorrow it will be really hard to not lynch Nur (despite my thinking that he isn't scum) and then we have a town with 'none/little information' and only a turn or so before lylo.

So.... that bothers me. Even though seb, caf all posted in, I don't know any of them better than before (since just saying that they agree with Mirth lynch) and that isn't a good thing.

So I think seb, caf, and the rest of us (including myself!!!) should say what we think if Mirth isn't scum. Just in case so we have something to think about for tomorrow.

Corvuus

[Mirth]

cor, you're again forgetting that chuck claimed nur was his partner. this is not something to ignore.

[Corvuus]

I think I stated in one of my previous posts that once Chuck had claimed scum and 'given up' on the game, I decided to ignore everything he said after that point since it is all WIFOM, nonsense, etc.

Chuck said it himself. He just wants to watch, laugh and have fun with how this game goes, blah blah blah.

He could have said Nur is *not* his partner and Seb was, or a myriad of other things, I still wouldn't give it weight compared to everything else.

In terms of Nur actually being Chuck's scumbuddy... that is a crazy meta idea that is hard for me to swallow. Nur would have had to bus his scumpartner when it wasn't necessary and his partner was roleblocker and he would have to somehow plan on the rest of us *not* killing him when his actions are contrary to that goal.

So either he is a smart crazy player who is manipulating us all... or he is just a 'townie' who outed scum. Even if you aren't scum Mir, I would have a hard time voting to lynch Nur after you.

Corvuus