Mini Normal 2271 - Game Over

[MathBlade]

The main issue I have is if Malcolm is town and scum don’t have two PRs then

Town would have on N1 a gunsmith that would be able to guilty 2/3rds if not 3/3rds of the game
A simple Jailkeeper that could stop the kill 2/3rds of the time with scum likely sending a goon to do the kill if all they have is one uber PR
Then a lazy tracker than can guilty in the same way a jailkeeper can and if it hits the uber PR then that Uber PR has to have a reason.

I’d have to calculate the odds but the odds of all three not getting a guilty on N1 is extremely low.

We know it’s unlikely scum have a blocker.

An ascetic would be a guilty.

Like help?

[Gamma Emerald]

The main issue I have is if Malcolm is town and scum don’t have two PRs then

Town would have on N1 a gunsmith that would be able to guilty 2/3rds if not 3/3rds of the game
A simple Jailkeeper that could stop the kill 2/3rds of the time with scum likely sending a goon to do the kill if all they have is one uber PR
Then a lazy tracker than can guilty in the same way a jailkeeper can and if it hits the uber PR then that Uber PR has to have a reason.

I’d have to calculate the odds but the odds of all three not getting a guilty on N1 is extremely low.

We know it’s unlikely scum have a blocker.

An ascetic would be a guilty.

Like help?

okay yeah this puts it in a different way that I think is more valid, basically a 1 PR team would be smashed by town's PRs if malcolm is town, and with 2 PRs malcolm is essentially useless. The issue there is useless at night doesn't make him a good vote-off. I'd rather hit scum. So like, do you have a particular reason why kitty is town by play?

[MathBlade]

The main issue I have is if Malcolm is town and scum don’t have two PRs then

Town would have on N1 a gunsmith that would be able to guilty 2/3rds if not 3/3rds of the game
A simple Jailkeeper that could stop the kill 2/3rds of the time with scum likely sending a goon to do the kill if all they have is one uber PR
Then a lazy tracker than can guilty in the same way a jailkeeper can and if it hits the uber PR then that Uber PR has to have a reason.

I’d have to calculate the odds but the odds of all three not getting a guilty on N1 is extremely low.

We know it’s unlikely scum have a blocker.

An ascetic would be a guilty.

Like help?

okay yeah this puts it in a different way that I think is more valid, basically a 1 PR team would be smashed by town's PRs if malcolm is town, and with 2 PRs malcolm is essentially useless. The issue there is useless at night doesn't make him a good vote-off. I'd rather hit scum. So like, do you have a particular reason why kitty is town by play?

No I don’t have a good reason Kitty is town by play. As I said I would be willing to consolidate there but I just can’t think of a way Malcolm is town.

It’s more than just useless at night. It’s useless at night if town. It’s because of the probability above the claim is just so bad Malcolm is very likely scum. I think it’s much more likely that Malcolm is scum who tried to keep reads/spew to a minimum with the PR claim rather than the PR actually existing.

My concern with going with Kitty or HEM (who are more likely scum by play) is that if either flip town then Malcolm becomes almost a forced elim at elo.

In other words, if Malcolm is town and this is somehow the setup that passed review, I’d want to know now and use that to sort between HEM and Kitty (where I think scum are by play) versus the contrast of picking wrong in those two today then between Malcolm and the other tomorrow and there I feel we would have to pick Malcolm as town and if Malcolm is town that’s a loss.

[MathBlade]

I just think we have to be okay with that risk to elim elsewhere.

[Gamma Emerald]

If we're thinking Mala is safe, then the game is essentially a lock, but I don't feel 100% about that, especially after what I pointed out very recently.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think Math is seeming townie here by their willingness to sort/explore different ideas, even if they are sceptical about my status. It's still theoretically possible I guess, but I'd be very surprised if we're dealing with a Math and Mala or Gamma town and if we are, they probably deserve to win.

[MalcolmTucker]

Note Roden and Kitty are both staying firmly away from these gameplay discussions for the most part, because the current state of the game likely suits them so long as I am at risk.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm sorry Italiano but you shouldn't have pushed NK15 after the claim. That's just sus amogus.

Well I still think there's at least one scum between HEM and Mala.

I now wonder how much of this game is just the town cannibalizing each other meanwhile scum just ride out the waves trying to stoke that fire.

Yeah same, town self-destructed with that day 1 mass claim.

Roden prob town. At least one scum between Mala and Malcolm. HEM not that scummy anymore now that I look at him again.

This is pretty much the extent of Kitty's D3 play that is either not exclusively about me likely being scum, or defending themselves from my reads. Does this look like a player who is genuinely interested in the gamestate as town or who is trying to figure out my alignment genuinely?

[MalcolmTucker]

D4 play, sorry.

[MalcolmTucker]

Can somebody who's good at set up spec explain why caught scum would claim ungated Vig instead of Doc?

Somewhat unrelated, but I think with JV's flip it's pretty likely scum have a Rolecop, and that's why Andres claimed Vig. I think they checked JV on Night 1, since two other people already claimed roles and they wanted to know what he was a backup of.

Mala, can we talk? I need your perspective on something.

?

From what I understand, you town read me and scum read HEM. Do you think this is similar to Control and that I'm just pocketed here?

what do you think Roden

why dont you stop flirting with the idea of shading me and confront me directly

I'm trying to work through my paranoia after getting pocketed multiple games in a row, I want more outside takes. But also I'm trying to understand why we're not getting paired by anyone at this point. We're only getting scum read individually, but no one's coming to either of us telling us to wake the fuck up and reevaluate. The implication with solves like Roden/Kitty or HEM/Kitty is that we're pocketed in some way, but no one's outright said that.

Also I don't think Gamma or Mala are controlling the game state in any particular way. I don't think they've been active enough to do that.

yes but i'm more entertaining a gamestate where town is self-cannibalizing and scum is playing a low-key game. right now, scum's winning strategy is to secure two miselims. that's it. that's what they need to do. who do you think is inching towards that finish line?

In that case then the Day 1 suspicions towards them were right and the resistance towards their wagons came purely from town. Those same townies have suspected you/me/Kitty for most of this game. And this also has to mean Malcom is town and really is a Simple Jailkeeper, but I don't see how that fits the set up.

Ughhhhhhh I'm gonna be really annoyed if Leaf faked a meltdown and tactically replaced out

i'm 50/50 on malcolm right now because while that claim is sus, he backed down off my slot and pushed you instead and i think that's out of nowhere and unstrategic for scum to do when humaneatingmonkey is sitting right there being the #1 scapegoat.

This is actually a really good point...

Why the hell do we have a Simple Jailkeeper and two investigatives then? I mean yeah most of the PRs claimed on Day 1 but still, I don't think the mod predicted that during set up. Maybe scum have two PRs? A Rolecop and something weak to avoid the Simple check? The Lazy Tracker would help avoid swing here maybe.

What's fucking with me is that we basically get to unleash three scum-finding PRs all at once on Night 1, yet scum don't have a Roleblocker. In the hands of a less claim-happy town, I don't see how that doesn't steamroll scum.

i'm 50/50 on malcolm right now because while that claim is sus, he backed down off my slot and pushed you instead and i think that's out of nowhere and unstrategic for scum to do when humaneatingmonkey is sitting right there being the #1 scapegoat.

This is actually a really good point...

Why the hell do we have a Simple Jailkeeper and two investigatives then? I mean yeah most of the PRs claimed on Day 1 but still, I don't think the mod predicted that during set up. Maybe scum have two PRs? A Rolecop and something weak to avoid the Simple check? The Lazy Tracker would help avoid swing here maybe.

Been ruminating on this more and I can’t figure out what two PRs work.

Maybe a named scum? Is that normal?

Anything that can be tracked is left open for guilty on N1.

Bulletproof scum would work but without a vig that’s trolly on a setup already punishing to scum.

So like ??? *confusedi

When Andres claimed Vig I initially thought scum were worried about one because one of their scum buddies were Bulletproof. But yeah, with the current claims that feels a little weak for scum. But, they didn't spend N3 looking for a Vig, so I'm not sure why they fished for one instead of a Doc...

And here's the same for Roden. A bit more involved in that regard and not completely focused on getting me out. Less certain on this slot than Kitty, but reading back D3 I'm struggling to see Kitty/HEM as a team despite my longstanding suspicion of HEM.

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't feel like Roden is scum, the way he went against IVD felt very towny

[MathBlade]

If we're thinking Mala is safe, then the game is essentially a lock, but I don't feel 100% about that, especially after what I pointed out very recently.

I agree with this thought. I am not sold on Mala town but you Me and Roden is a pretty good town block.

Mainly I think with the fact Malcolm hasn’t been turbo yeeted means Malcolm is scum or scum don’t want to elim Malcolm for some reason.

Like it’s weird.

Is there a reason you townread Malcolm Gamma?

[Roden]

Note Roden and Kitty are both staying firmly away from these gameplay discussions for the most part, because the current state of the game likely suits them so long as I am at risk.

You're joking, right?

I'm the one who brought set up discussion to the forefront. I've been actively trying to parse how your role fits into the set up and theorizing why Andres fished for a Vig instead of a Doc.

[Roden]

I feel like Kitty has been getting heat all game, but it never really seemed like they were in danger of getting eliminated.

[MathBlade]

Roden I would love you to answer my prior thoughts about elimming Malcolm as well please.

[Gamma Emerald]

If we're thinking Mala is safe, then the game is essentially a lock, but I don't feel 100% about that, especially after what I pointed out very recently.

I agree with this thought. I am not sold on Mala town but you Me and Roden is a pretty good town block.

Mainly I think with the fact Malcolm hasn’t been turbo yeeted means Malcolm is scum or scum don’t want to elim Malcolm for some reason.

Like it’s weird.

Is there a reason you townread Malcolm Gamma?

Why would Malcolm have been turbo yeeted as town?

[Roden]

I'd rather vote Malcolm, yes. I don't see much resistance to his elim though, which means if he's scum then he's getting bussed.

I think...maybe he's a Mafia Doctor, and that's why scum didn't fish there. So that he could claim a protective role later if necessary. It would also imply to the scum team that town have a Vig, so it would give multiple reasons for them to Vig hunt early on. It would also escape a guilty from the Gunsmith.

[MalcolmTucker]

Done all I can here, happy to self-hammer if someone moves me to E-1. Kitty should go next day though since I'll come back town. Remember Kitty all game voted on the basis of perceived anti-town play and then sat on a player with a role (even if it's been an entirely ineffectual one).

[Roden]

There's not really any way we can go wrong here as town unless HEM were town and to gain some unique insight from rereading the whole thing. If HEM comes back town we go for Jackson next. If HEM is mafia then we're all good and we eliminate Jackson surely?

If HEM is mafia then we're all good and we eliminate Jackson surely?

Is this a slip?

Nah that was a typo. Meant if Jackson isn't.

Where does "if Jackson isn't" fit into that post?

In case I die, please don't forget this tomorrow, because Malcolm never responded.

Also, if you think the voting patterns are alignment indicative, then why aren't you suspicious of Gamma? He was also on both mis-elim wagons.

I'd still like for Malcolm to respond to this btw.

Still waiting for Malcolm to answer this.

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah I feel like a mafia doctor probably exists because of Andres fishing for vig

[MalcolmTucker]

Getting rid of me is still silly given I'm very much not mafia (my plan demonstrates that quite clearly) but probably little more I can do to make that obvious to the doubters. Scum being able to take the piss here it feeels like quite frankly but it happens I guess. Suppose there's a world where I'm wrong and it's Mala/Gamma or something and I've been on the wrong track all game so it can happen.

[MalcolmTucker]

There's not really any way we can go wrong here as town unless HEM were town and to gain some unique insight from rereading the whole thing. If HEM comes back town we go for Jackson next. If HEM is mafia then we're all good and we eliminate Jackson surely?

If HEM is mafia then we're all good and we eliminate Jackson surely?

Is this a slip?

Nah that was a typo. Meant if Jackson isn't.

Where does "if Jackson isn't" fit into that post?

In case I die, please don't forget this tomorrow, because Malcolm never responded.

Also, if you think the voting patterns are alignment indicative, then why aren't you suspicious of Gamma? He was also on both mis-elim wagons.

I'd still like for Malcolm to respond to this btw.

Still waiting for Malcolm to answer this.

Quite frankly I've TR'd Gamma most of the game but I'm aware I could end up being wrong on that, as I've acknowledged in my most recent post. The difference in Gamma's slot is they (FL and Gamma) have pushed a range of different players for a variety of reasons, Kitty has exclusively focused in on what they perceive to be anti-town play to get rid of other town slots to win the game as scum.

[Roden]

Mala, can we talk? I need your perspective on something.

?

From what I understand, you town read me and scum read HEM. Do you think this is similar to Control and that I'm just pocketed here?

I'd also like for Mala to respond to this.

[MalcolmTucker]

Roden is transparently doing all they can here to clear Kitty, who is about to be heavily involved in a townie wagon for the third time in the game, this time for an identical reason to the exact logic they gave for their decision to eliminating Italiano still being a sensible one.

[MalcolmTucker]

@Roden if you think I'm mafia, time to vote. I'll hammer.