Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[furtiveglance]

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

1) To suggest I am acting disingenously is very offensive and slander. I am pointing out the situation, which is that I am the only player with any votes. So a pivot isn't gonna happen now, even if I wanted one.
2) I don't want to eliminate. For the very simple reason that town always get voted day 1.

[furtiveglance]

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

That's because he doesn't want something. He wants the game to stagnate and have no information.

Someone should die tonight. If we had any real discussion whatsoever then we'd at least have data from someone who mafia thought was skilled town.

This is blatantly accusing me of being mafia. I strongly object to this gross mischaracterisation of my valid viewpoint. I think what you're suggesting is that 2 dead town is better than 1 dead town today because we'd get more 'information' and 'data' - I already explained how these buzzwords are a common tool of the mafia to further their agenda.

Does no one else think this post is incredibly scummy? It's outright telling someone else that I'm scum.

[Alianna]

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

1) To suggest I am acting disingenously is very offensive and slander. I am pointing out the situation, which is that I am the only player with any votes. So a pivot isn't gonna happen now, even if I wanted one.
2) I don't want to eliminate. For the very simple reason that town always get voted day 1.

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

That's because he doesn't want something. He wants the game to stagnate and have no information.

Someone should die tonight. If we had any real discussion whatsoever then we'd at least have data from someone who mafia thought was skilled town.

This is blatantly accusing me of being mafia. I strongly object to this gross mischaracterisation of my valid viewpoint. I think what you're suggesting is that 2 dead town is better than 1 dead town today because we'd get more 'information' and 'data' - I already explained how these buzzwords are a common tool of the mafia to further their agenda.

Does no one else think this post is incredibly scummy? It's outright telling someone else that I'm scum.

Agreed with all of this.

[Alianna]

I also think 173 clears Dunnstral, as much of a strawman as 172 was.

[Alianna]

Also, there are four people on the no-lim wagon at present. Titus has only accused furtive. Obviously, we can't all be scum, but I find it fishy that there are three others (four if you count Malcolm) pushing much the same ideas and she singled out one.

[furtiveglance]

I also think 173 clears Dunnstral, as much of a strawman as 172 was.

I don't understand. Do you think Dunnstral is definitely town for some reason? If so why?

[Alianna]

I also think 173 clears Dunnstral, as much of a strawman as 172 was.

I don't understand. Do you think Dunnstral is definitely town for some reason? If so why?

Sorry, I put that vaguely. If Titus is scum, which is likely, then the 172-173 interaction doesn't look like a scumteam to me. I can't quite explain why, so maybe I'm totally wrong. If she's not scum, I have no idea. So I guess it doesn't quite clear them. I didn't really think too hard before posting 178.

[Dunnstral]

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

1) To suggest I am acting disingenously is very offensive and slander. I am pointing out the situation, which is that I am the only player with any votes. So a pivot isn't gonna happen now, even if I wanted one.
2) I don't want to eliminate. For the very simple reason that town always get voted day 1.

There is going to be an elimination regardless. If we no eliminate here, we still have to eliminate today. Putting it off won't make it go away, and you're likely still going to be voted for by Radical Rat and Titus.

It's not slander. Saying the pivot won't happen and so you have no choice but to no eliminate

is

disingenuous. If you changed your mind, we could probably eliminate somebody else.

[furtiveglance]

Acting like the only choices are you or no eliminate is disingenuous

1) To suggest I am acting disingenously is very offensive and slander. I am pointing out the situation, which is that I am the only player with any votes. So a pivot isn't gonna happen now, even if I wanted one.
2) I don't want to eliminate. For the very simple reason that town always get voted day 1.

There is going to be an elimination regardless. If we no eliminate here, we still have to eliminate today. Putting it off won't make it go away, and you're likely still going to be voted for by Radical Rat and Titus.

It's not slander. Saying the pivot won't happen and so you have no choice but to no eliminate

is

disingenuous. If you changed your mind, we could probably eliminate somebody else.

I know we will eliminate after no eliminating. You can obviously see what I'm trying to say, 2 eliminations is worse than one. Don't twist my words. I don't want this to be another game where it devolves into arguments about semantics. I never said I had no choice but to no eliminate, it's what I want to do.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

There has mostly just been analysis of game mechanics and a lot of it is NAI

And yet I feel you should have more visible reads ...

Can you elaborate on this?

I feel like I should have a little more knowledge on where they stand in this game currently, be that reads, investment levels, or even stance on the current situation.

For example Titus feels detatched and lacking conviction but I know she would much prefer to shoot currently and I know she likely has a PoE where she would shoot.

I got nothing but "meh." from Goldfish and I don't like it.

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination, because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

With that in mind

intent to hammer: No Elimination

, for those pushing to eliminate now's your change to convince someone to hop off the wagon before I hammer it.

As for reads I don't have strong opinions on any players this early, it normally takes me a while to get reads I am confident in. As I've already said Cat.Jpeg is a

slight

scum lean for post 82 I think it was (post number might be wrong) and I'm not entirely satisfied with the response in post 159. I also said that Alianna's tone is null for me, which is unusual and could be an indication of scum.

Later today or tomorrow when I have time I'm planning to go through ISOs so I'll have some reads for you after that.

[Dunnstral]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

[Radical Rat]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

I haven't double checked the math because I'm lazy, but I think this is actually a really good way to go about this. We can popcorn and nominate two townreads each, and then eliminate from what remains.

[Radical Rat]

Even if people still want to no lim, it generates enough content that I'd feel more comfortable going into Day 1 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Dunnstral]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

I haven't double checked the math because I'm lazy, but I think this is actually a really good way to go about this. We can popcorn and nominate two townreads each, and then eliminate from what remains.

Spoiler:

Probability Calculator





Feel free to use your own numbers

The numbers are actually off because it doesn't account for the fact that the first elimination removes a player from the pool. The actual chances are slightly higher than shown.

[Dunnstral]

It certainly helps to reframe the argument.

If you are town, and you have 1 townread, and you exclude yourself. Your chance of voting out mafia in 2 eliminations is greater than 50%.

To argue that the day 1 elimination is completely random is likely incorrect. I challenge people to be able to have 1 townread rather than defaulting to a no-elimination.

If you have a slight scumlean, you should be voting for them instead of voting to not eliminate. 2 eliminations is

not

worse than 1. Eliminations are the towns tool, mafia use the night kills. When have you ever played a game of mafia as town and tried to eliminate as few times as possible?

I pointed out that mafia have the option of forcing the same situation where there's 4 players alive whether we no eliminate today or not. So the only argument left is that we will somehow have more information later, but we can't get information later if we no eliminate. And the information we get later is worth more when there are less players alive, anyways.

[Dunnstral]

I don't like 167 from furtiveglance because they enter the thread saying they have nothing to say and that they're just waiting. That looks like mafia and on top of that they posted 175 and 178 which I also don't like due to the arguments being used such as saying that town always gets eliminated day 1 (not true!), saying that a pivot can't happen because only they have votes (not true!), and phrases like "this is blatantly accusing me of being mafia" which seems evident but is framed as if it is outrageous.

Not sure why Alianna then immediately agreed with those posts or called 172 a strongman (it isn't).
I did understand what Alianna was getting at in 178 and don't like that furtiveglance seemed to be going a different direction with it in 180.

Oh and their reads are the 2 people pushing them are mafia, but they won't push there unless prodded.

VOTE: furtiveglance

[furtiveglance]

Take note of these bloodthirsty vultures surrounding my still breathing body....do not become one yourself. Anyone who has played this game knows it's very rare mafia are voted day 1. I'm not mafia, I' very surprised that anyone voting me thinks I'm mafia, and no clue as to why.

[Dunnstral]

I explained why in the post above

[furtiveglance]

and I can refute all of those baseless arguments. If I was scum with nothing to say, I wouldn't say that. The gamestate was stale and I commented on it. So what. It's a well known fact that town is eliminated day 1 in most games. I also have the added knowledge that I'm town. The most redundant of your arguments against me seems to imply that I was against using the double elimination just because I was the most popular vote. This is false. I always wanted to No Eliminate first, and stated that at the time. As for my outrage at being called scum, Titus' read had no basis or explanation. So yes I was baffled. As for not pushing my current reads, I really don't know what you mean. I've been consistent on voting No Eliminate, and I've also been open with my reads on players, even asking others to comment on them. So I did push there without being prodded.

In other words, get your murderous hands off me you greedy opportunist.

Yes I know I how I sound. I think it's warranted if you actually read the game though, and see how unfairly I'm being treated.

I am sure that town are smart enough not to condemn me here anyway, so have fun being left looking desperate and exposed.

[Alianna]

UNVOTE: for now, I’ll check the math tomorrow.

[furtiveglance]

Alianna do you think I'm town?

[Alianna]

Alianna do you think I'm town?

I don’t know anymore. I was mostly townreading you because you were advancing the game and I agreed with your sus on Titus.
You seem to be playing slightly differently than the last two games (in general, not just recently), but then again, so am I. I’m probably going to do some meta research tomorrow.
191 and 193 have not convinced me you’re town. No further comment.
Could you explain why you asked me this question? This and 25 give me the impression that you really want me to TR you.
Please pardon my late-night stream of consciousness posting.

[Cat.Jpeg]

So currently with the game state I think we should go for a no-elimination,

because it's too risky to hit two townies, which is the most likely outcome.

Just want to point out that there is a 39.5% chance of hitting mafia today if we vote completely randomly with both votes

If we can correctly identify two town players before eliminations then that number jumps up to 48.9%

If you are also a town player and can correctly identify two other town players while removing yourself from the equation, that number jumps up to a 55.5% chance to be pushing one of the mafia today

While this is correct that the likelyhood of voting out a mafia today after voting twice is around 50% (and theres also a possiblity that we vote out the planned night kill which would also stop a 6 player melo) I still don't think it's worth it. If we vote once and don't get a mafia out it kinda sucks but its mostly fine, if we vote twice and fail, it puts us into a dire situation in which we will probably lose, we will only have night kill info from one kill which wont be very useful. (because they chose who to night kill in advance we wont be able to decide who would want that person dead because of what has happened in the game but only from meta analysis.)

Right now I townread Dunnstral even though I disagree with them.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I dont think mafia would want to go against the most popular opinion that much (even if it will allow them to win quicker)

[Cat.Jpeg]

Take note of these bloodthirsty vultures surrounding my still breathing body....do not become one yourself. Anyone who has played this game knows it's very rare mafia are voted day 1. I'm not mafia, I' very surprised that anyone voting me thinks I'm mafia, and no clue as to why.

and I can refute all of those baseless arguments. If I was scum with nothing to say, I wouldn't say that. The gamestate was stale and I commented on it. So what. It's a well known fact that town is eliminated day 1 in most games. I also have the added knowledge that I'm town. The most redundant of your arguments against me seems to imply that I was against using the double elimination just because I was the most popular vote. This is false. I always wanted to No Eliminate first, and stated that at the time. As for my outrage at being called scum, Titus' read had no basis or explanation. So yes I was baffled. As for not pushing my current reads, I really don't know what you mean. I've been consistent on voting No Eliminate, and I've also been open with my reads on players, even asking others to comment on them. So I did push there without being prodded.

In other words, get your murderous hands off me you greedy opportunist.

Yes I know I how I sound. I think it's warranted if you actually read the game though, and see how unfairly I'm being treated.

I am sure that town are smart enough not to condemn me here anyway, so have fun being left looking desperate and exposed.

I don't really like this response, furtive has been slightly different. Definitely not willing to vote for them yet.

The whole 'town is smart enough not to vote for me' is a blatant manipulation tactic and I dont agree that mafia wont get voted out on day one simply

because

it is day one, its less likely but definitely possible. (sometimes early reads can actually be better (not always) because as the game goes on it can get kinda muddled and the mafia can learn what to say to get positive reactions from town and you forget about the mistakes they made early on. Ppl base votes off of who they have become friends with or who is currently agreeing with them instead of of logic)