curiouskarmadog wrote:set up would be 14/4/4/1/1+(cult)
armlx wrote:That would not balance CKD. Too much night related variance.
How would 14/4/4/1/1+(cult) give more variance than 16/3/3/1/1+(cult) ? It's the same amount of nightkills, right?
Regardless of the setup, I think we ought to focus on finding more members of the Greek mafia more than on finding a possibly remaining Japanese mafia, simply because the Greek mafia poses more of a threat.
Electra only had three posts of substance (posted immediately after eachother). I'll quote them here so people don't need to look back too far:
Electra wrote:This is just the first part of one post, I have to go now, but if I don't post it, I will lose it.
armlx - attacks Stef for WIFOM, votes stef after ooba has meta, pursues Stef for a little bit, but then votes P-T after a while; scummyrelation level: low
blakadder - random votes Stef(!!scum partner random vote?), finds P-T and Stef suspicious, the infamous "Since your scumminess relies on the assumption that you and tajo are partners, you'll be partially cleared if tajo flips town. " which I don't find to be much of a read unless BlakAdder is newbie scum. (is he?) a lot of stuff about how he wasn't defending Stef. scummyrelation level: midhigh
CKD - calls stef out for too much random voting (cautioning partner?), pursues BlakAdder a lot, scummyrelation level: medium
Cybele - votes blakadder for seeming like stef's scumbuddy, but never addresses stef? level: midhigh
Empking - likes the pt bandwagon more, does not address stef. a bit too obvious for a scumbuddy? level: midlow
Erratus - does not address stef, level: medium
Ghostwriter - does not address stef or post, level:medium
Haschel - does not find stef suspicious due to small sample size, level: medium
Jebus - does not address stef, level: medium
Ku_F - random votes stef(!!) is also random voted by stef (!!), does not address stef otherwise. level:midhigh
massive - does not address stef, level: medium
ooba - pursues stef a lot, uses meta against him, etc. shifts to pt later, but still, level: low
Rush - does not address stef, level: medium
sekinj - defends stef a little bit, attacks PT, doesn't really mean much, although the amount of defense is the amount that scum would do. level: medium
Seraphim - does not address stef, level: medium
Shadowgirl - does not address stef, level: medium
Sierra - says that pressure on stef is good but does not go any further, asks stef about his experience, is pressured about his semi-support of the wagon, level: medium
skitzer - tells stef that people on the site are commonly insulted and that he should adapt, level: medium
Tarhalinder - votes stef because he has a problem with questions? (why would he do this?) jumps to Sierra because of his defense-ish of stef, but then stops caring about stef very soon after, lists stef with pt and sierra (rule of three?), level: midhigh
Electra wrote:@ curiouskarma dog - This isn't a list of who I find scummiest given all factors, it's a list of people in their likeliness of being scumpartners with Stef.
Also, I knew ooba was dead, but I forgot ;O But I ranked him as low, and we know that he wasn't a scumpartner
@ Ku_F - If people didn't address Stef and didn't give any other tells, then I can only rank them as medium. Also, defending Stef doesn't necessarily mean anything, because a mistaken townie is just as likely as scum to defend (since scum are sometimes more reluctant to defend in case they can be associated). It's mainly in the way Stef was defended, if it seems more like a serious defense, I'm more likely to believe it's town.
Also I missed that SGirl random voted stef, but it's not really enough to go off of considering she didn't address stef again.
Here is the rest of the post:
TheSweatpantsNinja - did not address Stef the day before, but doesn't like BlakAdder today, level: medium
Stef: addresses a few people, doesn't really give any tells as far as I can see, except he says, "Empking, Elektra, BlakAdder, Jebus, Rush: More activity and/or content from you guys! What do you think about the latest developments in the game? What are your 3 top suspects and why? " so obviously one of these five is scum (not me :p)
So anyway, ultimately, it does seem like BlakAdder is a good choice, however, it almost seems too obvious? Cybele's one move is very suspicious to me, but since he didn't do anything else, I can't say for sure. Ku_F's response is kind of weird, it seems almost like fake-indignant. Not sure if the double random vote is less or more suspicious than a single random vote. I also find Ku_F's posting to be Mafia-ish aside from interactions with Stef, no examples, just a general read. Tarhalinder's actions are very very interesting, and could definitely be a scumbuddy, but aside from stuff relating to Stef, I don't find his actions too scummy. Thoughts on these four?
Electra wrote:Ku_F wrote:Electra, now I'm confused.
I'm midhigh as I random voted Stef and Stef me. In your next post, you say that you don't know if the double random vote is less or more suspicious than a single random vote. But in that same post you say that eventhough SG random voted Stef, it doesn't change her level as she doesn't adress Stef afterwards. Then tell me why I'm midhigh and SG medium.
Also you say that one of the following five is scum: Empking, Electra, BA, Jebus and Rush.
Of those players, BA is the only one who has a midhigh level. Then why aren't you voting him? You're only excuse is that it seems to obvious.
However, we don't know what the scum could have planned for this day to try and save Stef (and BA if he's scum) as Stef was killed last night. Their whole plan was suddenly destroyed.
Also what does BA have to do with the connection of each player with Stef (see TSN)?
I guess the main difference is that there was the double random vote, but you didn't address Stef otherwise, so it seems extremely coincidental. On the other hand, Shadowgirl single random voted Stef, but didn't address stef, but that's fairly common if it was truely a random vote. My commont on the one vs. two votes is sort of like asking if other people think it's actually more suspicious, or does the lack of reason for scum to so obviously vote each other override it?
As for voting, I'm not ready yet. xD Does no one think this BlakAdder thing is too obvious? After all, even though Stefdeath was a surprise, they would have had to know that Stef would still be under suspicion today and possibly be lynched? Which would have the same effect on BlakAdder. Does that make sense?
She looks to be getting ready to see BlakAdder lynched, but saying "I told you it was too obvious" the next day. While BlakAdder could still be that possible last Japanese mafia, judging by Electra's posts, he's not part of the Greek mafia so should not be the lynch for today.
Other people she classifies as 'midhigh' are Cybele, Ku_F, and Tarhalinder. Even though the possibility of bussing exists, I think it's more likely Cybele and Ku_F are not Japanese mafia. The fact that she put armlx down as 'low' is a null-tell as far as I'm concerned.
Electra's posts are not linking to a possible scum-buddy. It might be good to look back at the suspicions of other players that were killed last night. What I get from the scene is that Electra was killed by GhostWriter (Jap mafia). Unfortunately, I can't tell who else is responsible for which other kills. It would help if we figured this out. If we can figure out which kills belong to the Greek mafia, we might be able to reason about why they killed a certain player (possibly getting too close to the truth?). Same for the SK.
There seems to be some consistency in the way people are killed.
15- Stef - japanese mafia member -
on Night 1
16- ooba - cult leader -
on Night 1
09- Electra - greek mafia member -
on Night 2
13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member -
on Night 2
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member -
on Night 2
21- Tarhalindur - tracker -
slain
on Night 2
The Night 2 'murder' is colored red in post 1, but I gave it purple here to match the Night 1 'murder'. Obviously, the Japanese mafia 'assassinate'. If we assume the vig didn't kill Night 1, the vig 'slays' his targets and was the one who killed Tarhalindur. That leaves the Greek mafia and the SK 'killing' and 'murdering', but which does what exactly is still unclear. I first thought Stef was killed by a vig, but knowing this it was probably the SK. That would mean the Greek mafia is responsible for ooba's and sekinj's death. I will be looking at who ooba and sekinj were accusing later.
