Mini 697: Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia {Game Over!}
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CarnCarn
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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Because the plan technically works, given time. I think springlullaby (sl) is town and the plan catches scum if they try to take out townies by faking guilties anyway.Why else would he be so eager to send himself first, along with the person who cooked up the plot to clear townies.
I'm sending myself because I'm the only other person who I know is definately town at the point.-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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That, along with:Machiavellian-Mafia wrote: 5. While imprisoned, those players cannot target others and cannot be targeted by others.
Yes, yes you are... even if I were GF, I couldn't possibly fake a guilty on someone else. If I did, I would get axed the next day.icemanE wrote: Maybe I'm an idiot, but I reread the rules and didn't see anything about night kills. Maybe you can point it out for me, godfather?
I'm pretty sure you're scum, btw.-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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You don't get investigated when you go to jail; you get investigative powers if both of you choose "No"I meant you going to jail and getting investigated would turn up an innocent on you if you're godfather.
If I were GF, or any other scum for that matter, I wouldn't be able to fake a guilty because it would get me killed the next day.
Well, with doc protection and the fact that the prisoners can't be night targeted, I assumed it was clear there would be NKs.There is nothing about NKs implicitly stated in the rules. Just because there are "other" actions to protect from besides investigation does not mean they're night kills.
The more I think about this plan, the more I think it will fail because of NKs since it is really slow.-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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Ah, OK. Well, that's true, but it technically wouldn't do the town any harm by itself, unless I come back the next day with a fake-guilty that gets killed. btw, I am not a GF, that's just hypothetical.What I'm saying is, following spring's plan (unless I'm misreading it or misunderstanding it), when you and spring (if you're the two that go to jail) cross investigate each other, spring will find you innocent if you're the godfather.
But, the problem is, just to get to that step takes about 2-3 nights, which, if there are NKs, is a terrible plan for the town.
If you don't think there are NKs, then what is doc protect for? It's possible that it is only against the 50% chance of daykill, but I doubt it would be that limited.
Mod: Is the doc protect benefit choice applicable for day, night or both?-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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lol, I'm not even the one who brought it up. I have no idea if there is a GF and whether they would test innocent.CarnCarn, with all your GF talk, it sure seems you are convinced there is a GF in the game. Perhaps you have some inside information that needs to be shared with the town?
Also, if you think both spring and I are scum, why are you sending both of us into prison? You do realize that two scum in prison can both just choose the daykill option and randomly kill townies the next day?-
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I really think this means NKs, despite the lack of an outright statement by the mod. I may be missing something, though.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:CarnCarn wrote:Mod: Is the doc protect benefit choice applicable for day, night or both?The doc protection bonus from those PD scenarios can only be used during the night.
Anyways, with NKs, and reconsidering how long spring's plan seems to take to do anything, I'm going to:
Unsend: springlullaby
Unsend: CarnCarn-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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If we go with this plan, do we decide beforehand who we want investigated? I think that should be a requirement, especially if there are NKs.
If not, here is what can happen:
A scum gets into prison and only "investigates" someone they know is not on their team. Then, that prison trip is basically wasted and another night of killing ensues. Or, the scum can pull a fake-innocent on their scum buddy.
I think this plan really won't work because of the loopholes for scum, especially with NKs.
I think this should be more about townhunting and sending those people to prison to vote No-No and then letting them day kill the scummiest suspects. I really don't see a way to break this game.-
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Are you sure it's random?icemanE wrote:send: Crazy
send: OP
Those two seem random enough to justify sending. I don't think we should send spring tonight, as she came up with the plan.DragonsofSummer wrote:send Crazy
send OrangePenguin
I have no problems with the plan at all, but it does get complicated there are night kills.-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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Oh, right, good point.Tony Montana wrote: They get Daycop ability for the next day. We can discuss it then.
Also, you mentioned punishments for people who choose "Yes" in prison. How exactly are they going to be punished? Do we actually have to waste a day sending people to prison, trusting them both to choose "No" and picking the daykill (only 50% btw) option to get rid of that person the next day? That's a really drawn out process and it basically wastes two days/nights even if that one scum gets punished.
Or, are you thinking there is some vig that will handle the punishment? But what happens if/when that vig dies? There is unfortunately no easy way to punish after that.-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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I'm just going to throw this out there:
The original Prisoner's Dilemma was created by law enforcement to get criminals to confess (giving them a dominant strategy to choose Yes over No). Do you think that there might be some hidden penalty if we throw 2 scum into prison?
It would make sense in real life, since the method tries to get scum to confess. I'm thinking there is something the scum know about the setup of the interrogation that we don't, and that they really don't want to end up in prison together.
Your thoughts?-
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RedCoyote wrote: I don't understand. This would clearly help the scum because they know who it's their partner that's going in with them. If anything this is the worst scenario, because then both of the scum will get the benefits of a double "no" vote and completely throw this town into disarray.
You guys missed the point. What I'm saying is that the flavor would make sense to punish both scum in jail vs. giving them a bonus, so yeah I think there is a hidden penalty that only the scum are probably aware of.springlullaby wrote: I'm not sure why the mod would hid a mechanism like that, because sending in two scums at the same time is pretty difficult a goal to achieve.-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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Huh? How did you come up with that? And why did you use 2 6-sixed dice?!SlySly wrote:
Finally, a plan I can understand and a plan I can keep up with!!TonyMontana wrote:Maybe we all should just roll dice...
Original Roll String: 2d6(STATIC) 2 6-Sided Dice: (4, 1) = 5
The dice say:
send: Tony Montana-
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CarnCarn Mafia Scum
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Tony Montana wrote: Dice rolls are unfixable, and I'm guessing you previewed your post, thinking that was the result you would get.
Well, even on previewing, it would be impossible to come up with your name, unless he's using some other chart. Definately want to hear this explanation.Tony Montana wrote: Seeing as he sent me, I don't think avoiding me was a reason.
I'm not gonna speculate into what on earth sly was thinking with his roll, I wanna hear him explain it.-
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Well, according to the original mod list of players given below by spring, your dice roll says you should vote SlySly (8) and Tony Montana (1):Crazy wrote:Original Roll String: 2d12(STATIC) 2 12-Sided Dice: (8, 1) = 9
There. I dunno what you want me to do with that. I'm happy to just wagon anybody... since we are going with SL's plan, right?springlullaby wrote: 1.TonyMontana
2.Crazy
3.Albert B. Rampage
4.CarnCarn
5.humscunter
6.springlullaby
7.Seraphim
8.SlySly
9.orangepenguin
10.DragonsofSummer
11.icemanE
12.RedCoyote-
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Why would someone kill the prisoner? This game makes even less sense than it did to begin. I am really clueless right now.
We were all going under the assumption that the prisoners would be safe from any night targets, but apparently this is not the case. If this scenario can repeat, then sl's plan is surely busted.-
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I really don't think the mod would lie to us, despite what the Police Chief claims to have happened.Machiavellian-Mafia wrote:5. While imprisoned, those players cannot target others and cannot be targeted by others.
Mod: Did you lie to us?
^^Eh, we'll see where this goes^^
This makes me think the kill had to somehow be conducted from within (either OP, or someone subsituting for OP, or some other character that has access to the interrogation room).-
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Why shouldn't OP just claim at this point? Even just a soft claim would help pin him down the rest of the game if he's scum. I don't really understand the rush to send him back, especially if you think he's scum and the NK was part of his doing.
I will elaborate on my position about why sending 2 scum into prison is a good idea for town, and bad for scum. First of all, it simply makes no sense for theme to actually reward scum when they are put in jail by town (when does that ever make sense??); those who argue otherwise are either really short-sighted, without an eye on the big picture, or scum trying to confuse town.
Second, I actually asked the mod about this in the pregame phase. I wondered why scum wouldn't want to be in prison, since (and he has confirmed this to me), scum do indeed know each other's identities and could seemingly manipulate the system to get put in jail and gain abilities. When I pointed this out, the mod replied, essentially, that it is not that simple (ask him about this, I dare ya).
This leads me to believe that there is indeed some penalty to scum for ending up in jail together. So, basically, we need to scumhunt as usual and make the best effort to send the two scummiest players to prison each night.-
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The spring=scum story is interesting, but I doubt it's correct. For one thing, I just don't see a scum trying to pass off a plan that only helps them for one night (and only the first night, at that). Also, spring seemed genuinely unsure about NKs, like a lot of other people (even though doc protects and night targeting were mentioned in the rules); I doubt you could say they are all scum.
We haven't heard from humscunter in a while. What are your thoughts on N1 and the current situation?
Also,
Unsend: SlySly; I think this day is being rushed with no reason.-
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@Sly - I wanted to play along and not let the scum know I figured out a weakness early on? It's not like we were going to be able to send 2 scum day 1, anyway. It hard enough to find one person, let alone 2.
Your case against me is pretty weak. I'm not lying about this; just ask the mod yourself (in fact, I encourage everyone to). There is no reason for me to put the information forward if I were scum.
In fact, after the random stage yesterday, I started mentioning this exact thing. The posts you mention are VERY early in the game; I didn't want to throw it out there too early because scum would realize I was on to something and change their early behavior.-
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What makes you so sure?OP wrote:But if you really want me to claim, I will tomorrow when it will benefit the town.
It helps the town because, if your claim makes sense and you are indeed town, then there is no reason to send you back to jail. You do realize that you appear suspicious from the events N1?OP wrote:I am surely not going to claim Day 2. I don't really see why it would help the town- it would just give the mafia more info, which I don't want.
The day scene is fine, but it doesn't mean that you're not scum and that in fact, your team is allowed to break in and NK if only one of you is in prison.
Also, it's not true that both of you will die if you answer yes. That is only one possible outcome of the rock paper scissors match.
Anyway, I have a gut feeling that you're not scum, but I'd like this to be supported by some evidence especially after that crazy N1 (pun intended ).
Also, Sly, can you explain your TM vote from yesterday? I know it's been asked a couple times already but you've ignored it every time.-
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TO EVERYONE: I do not have absolute "mod confirmed" info about the setup; never said I did (and why the hell would he directly tell me something about the setup just because I asked?). Sly you are twisting words left and right. All I said is that, based on the response I got from the mod pregame, I was lead to believe there is some penalty for scum ending up in jail together, but I wanted to keep this speculation to myself in the early stages of D1 for obvious protown reasons.
But ISlySly wrote:This is ramblings of scum trying to justify misleading the town to rush through day 1. If you know that sending 2 scum to prison is protwn, especially knowing that from the mod, you revealing that on day one would have been protown. It would have generated more desire to discuss and expose scum. Your withholding of protown mod confirmed information was not protown, it was downright scummy.DIDmention it day 1. And NO, it would not be terribly useful D1 to go into more detail (mentioning the mod) then because there is little info to catch 2 scum with. Why would I waste this info when it wasn't important?
Actually, your surprise at my initial comment about sending two scum being bad for town is kind of scummy.
Har har. Make a post that makes no sense in retrospect and dismiss it as a joke; that is an excellent defense!SlySly wrote:There is no logic in a ridiculous joke. I made a sarcastic comment followed by an obviously not serious roll. How could I possibly decide to send Tony based on a roll of two 6 sided dice and getting a 4 and 1? I couldn't, it was a post entirely in jest.
And to both SlySly and RedCoyote, how does my revealing this info make me scum? It simply doesn't, and you two wish I'd never mentioned it; there's absolutely no reason for anyone to be upset with my revealing this information, except for the scum, of course. Guess what that makes you.
Unsend: Seraphim
Send: SlySly
Send: RedCoyote-
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iceman, your plan doesn't work all that well if there are NKs, even if they are outside of prison. For example, we are already down to 11 players, with one dead townie.
If we assume 1 NK/night, and minimum of 2 scum (possibly 3):
then after tonight we would be down to 8 town, 2 scum (maybe 7, 3)
So, after a round of investigations, if we pick randomly, the chances of getting a guilty on at least one scum are only 1-(0.80)(0.80)=0.36, assuming we rolled dice on who out of the 10 players to investigate.
So, on the relatively low probability that we do find scum, we have to repeat this process, suffering another NK:
after a third night we would be down to 7 town, 2 scum (possibly 6, 3)
Then, given the daykill is only 50% chance, the chance of killing that scum is 1-(0.5)^2=0.75, which is a decent chance, but 1/4 times we don't succeed.
Assuming we don't get a guilty tomorrow (1:2 odds that we don't), that does narrow down the list of suspects:
After a third night we would be down to 7 town, 2 scum, with probably 1 definately confirmed town (as the other might get NK'd; we'll go with the worst case scenarios here). Then, randomly investigating gives odds of finding scum are 1-(2/3)^2=5/9=0.56, which is somewhat favorable. However, we would have to repeat the process and suffer another NK, etc.
Also, this assumes that the prisoners are telling the truth about their investigations, which is not easy to confirm. Furthermore, if we assume 3 scum the chances of finding scum are obviously higher, but I choose to calculate things using only 2.
Anyway, I think there are a lot of "if's" in this plan; that is why I am hesitant.-
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Oops, I should correct this; minor mistake in my thinking. The chances are actually 1-(3/4)^2=7/16=0.4375, so they are actually not much better than the previous day's chances.Then, randomly investigating gives odds of finding scum are 1-(2/3)^2=5/9=0.56, which is somewhat favorable.
Anyway, it just seems like this plan seems to fail, and that's even before we add in all the "unless otherwise stated" stuff.
I don't know anything more about this than you (I think). Everything I said is based off stuff ITT.Albert B. Rampage wrote:I am sure the post above is sound but I will not read it.
This is an example of my philosophy. Let the people who know what they're doing do it.-
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For all the BS cases that Sly tried to put together, he only gave you a cursory look, as if to hedge his bets.
Like I said, I think scum get some benefit from sending in 1 and ONLY 1 member into prison, so the fact that you are voting Sly and me is not that surprising.
I'm much more convinced that he is scum than that you are scum, but I'm still thinking that sending you back is necessary to find out whether last night was a one-time thing or you may actually be scum.
To TCS and icemanE: Why do you think this game is any different from normal mafia, where we try to hunt for scum? Is your view based on the interrogation chart on page 1? If it is, please remember the huge "unless otherwise stated" caveat. Also:
This is an idea.CarnCarn wrote:Has anyone else asked the mod about how sending two scum to jail, given that they know each other's identities, is seemingly bad for town?
If not, don't do it ITT, do it via PM. I've already told you how he answered me pregame, but I'd like to know what responses others get.-
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But Crazy was town...The Central Scrutinizer wrote:if we get the same result as Night One, we can be more positive that orangepenguin and one of our sendees are scum together;
I agree with this.The Central Scrutinizer wrote:As I write I'm becoming increasingly certain that we have the two most probable possibilities here. A scum-town combination lets scum "sneak" a person in to kill the townie, or scum had a one-shot "superkill" that they decided was most beneficial to use on day one in order to confound us. Any other ideas, I'd like to hear and consider of course.
Why not send Sly and OP? If one of them dies, then we know the N1 mechanism is not a scum sneaking in to get a kill (unless Sly dies and he turns out to be town). If OP dies and is town, then it proves the "scum get a kill by sneaking one in" theory wrong. If they both survive, they could be town or scum together (I think they would probably be town; I don't see two scum surviving intact after being sent to prison). I think this pairing would give us the most insight into the game mechanics and has a good chance of locking up 2 scum.The Central Scrutinizer wrote:In conclusion, I'd suggest a combination of SlySly and Spring. I believe SlySly to be scum, and Spring has strong town leanings in my view because of his attempt to game the system, but he might still have been scum trying to get us to waste time (though unlikely, in my opinion).
A logical way is to send them to prison, counting on the "unless specified otherwise" clause.icemanE wrote:This is clearly different, Carn. At the moment I see no reliable way of dispensing with scum even when we do find them. Finding out how to do that should obviously be our first priority.-
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ABR plz explain. Not liking my wagon, here.Albert B. Rampage wrote: One of CarnCarn and TCS is definitely scum.
So, the scum might not kill tonight and you think this is a bad thing??icemanE wrote: Now that I think of it, we probably aren't going to learn anything if OP goes again. I highly doubt he'd be ballsy enough to kill while in prison again on two consecutive nights.unsend: OP.FoS: icemanE-
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1. I never liked humscunter (who TCS replaced).Albert B. Rampage wrote:
1.You both agree a lot. Generally scum agree with a town to look better when said townie dies.CarnCarn wrote:
ABR plz explain. Not liking my wagon, here.Albert B. Rampage wrote: One of CarnCarn and TCS is definitely scum.
2. You both want some sort of "plan". Which helps the scum.
2. No, we're trying to figure out how to eliminate scum.-
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And indeed this is exactly the Prisoner's Dilemma. If I think I know what he will answer, then I can use that info to form my own decision. If in fact there is no "unless specified otherwise" clause here, you have no way to punishAlbert B. Rampage wrote:Sly you have no choice but to vote yes as well.eitherof us for choosing "No."-
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