Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

I do wonder if there's a reason for Enchant dying rather than Tejate, or if it's just WIFOM.

[fua]

Actually, Shirou is right. Ceph believed I was town (and has for a while) and that GL and Shirou were both doubtcasting me in order to get further. If he believes I’m town and he has the option to end the game mechanically by checking Shirou/GL (Kill the one that doesn’t flip town then kill me if that doesn’t work) then why would he select the person who he suspects the least out of the three?

I think Ceph is just scum here.

[fua]

Ceph needs GL and Shirou to both be miselimmed and not checking either of them aligns perfectly with his wincon.

[Shirou]

Hm, I think Implosion died because they had NQ in their pool as well, maybe?

Which...actually also makes it weird if GL is scum, kinda?

*Maybe* Implosion would check NQ, but that was a maybe. There was also Morph that was fairly suspected.

However I was almost leashing myself to GL...for two days.

Amazonian also died rather than Ceph on N2.

I know that if I was scum angling for Ceph would be my job, but like, I'm genuinely a bit surprised that this game kinda makes more sense if Ceph is scum than if GL is.

p-edit: yeah kinda

[fua]

Yeah, Ceph not mechanically ending the game from his POV is just damning because there’s no reason not to even if he wanted to make sure I was town.

[Shirou]

Also I know this is self-defense but yesterday if I was scum I also did intentionally tried to get Ceph off checking fua (which was the best result to me since it means I need to duel GL/Ceph rather than risk a guilty on me or to duel Ceph/Fua). I even did try to bait them into checking me by posting acting sus by the end.

My unique question about this game if it's Ceph/NQ is...why the hell was NQ trying to get fua eliminated? It sounded like desperation but I don't think they had to despair like that...

Although initially we planned to just assume fua is town rather than cop check, so that guaranteed Ceph/NQ to lose as well by my plan, therefore that's where the desperation came from.

[Shirou]

2809 leaves such a bad taste in my mouth. I don't know what a good way is for town to justify their poorly-received gambits, but this did not look like that. The gambit itself is totally disproportionate in terms of risk/reward, and everything Shirou has said about it afterwards has just been scum desperate to paint it in a better light. I really struggle to see it as anything but that. Shirou was pretty high on my reads list up until the GL thing yesterday, and the aftermath today is just making me feel worse and worse about the slot.

VOTE: Shirou

At this point I don't see a reason to see out their cop claim. It will just muddy the waters more when they do turn out to be scum. Unless we have a strong contender for who their partner is and people think there's value in letting the cop claim go through for some reason.

There are sour opinions on morph's alignment so maybe somebody will argue that they're a better lim today. I'm not getting those same vibes, morph's felt null-town for most of the game and as I go back and look at the reaction to fua's fake-claim I do think it's +town.

Actually I think everyone should keep claiming. Why listen to Shirou?

ouch...

sigh

numberq

please

I'm begging you and anyone with the same idea...

it's fine to eliminate me and scum read me even if I come up with a guilty tomorrow, but please not today.

If you are scum, I think it would be a bad idea to let you live another day. It will mean a wasted day as we mull over your fake result. Even if we quick lim you, what does that gain us over getting rid of scum today? And I don't like the idea of giving you another chance to NK someone to try and turn perception away from limming you tomorrow.

If anyone has a compelling reason to want hear the results of Shirou's investigation tomorrow I'll listen, but to me it just feels like setting ourselves up to muddy the waters further.

For what it's worth, the way he tried to get me eliminated before I could get my cop shot, but on a later day completely rethought their read on me, is kinda the same thing he did to fua, and we now know fua is town?

:thonking:

(Yes I'm shamelessly trying to convince you I'm town here)

[Shirou]

I'm curious to see what GL has to say.

It also pinged me that yesterday he said something that seemed to only make sense for him to be scum, if NQ was town, but NQ flipped scum so I wonder if that's an extra reason to think from my pov that it's Ceph rather than GL the final one.

[GuiltyLion]

Fua is innocent

You really checked fua when from your POV it would be better to check the most suspicious person (aka me) on a NQ scum flip?

Like, if you really are that confident I'm scum, you could have just checked me and ended the game right there from your PoV. The fact you didn't is really weird.

I agree with this, I probably made things muddier than they needed to be yesterday when I was paranoia'ing about fua but I really mostly wanted fua checked if we flipped

town

yesterday, since the thing I was most worried about was hypothetical scum!fua flipping me to net them the win in 5p.

Given nQ scumflip I think checking either myself or Shirou would have made a lot more sense, so I'd like Ceph's explanation on if he was trying to hit scum or town with that check and why

[GuiltyLion]

I do wonder if there's a reason for Enchant dying rather than Tejate, or if it's just WIFOM.

this is also odd to me - Tejate was already conftown after nQ's scumflip, but Enchant was technically still uncleared. I would think for any of us as scum, a F3 without conftown would be slightly better than a F3 with a conftown in it, which is guaranteed now

The only thing I can think of is WIFOM as well, in the sense that maybe this gives scum flexibility to kill in fua/Tejate based on their reads and try to spin it with wine if need be. but yah idk if that's who I would have killed as scum

[GuiltyLion]

I also think you all were already kinda discussing this but for a small point in my own defense, if I were scum with nQ and Ceph is cop, our team would

definitely

rather have Shirou flipped over nQ yesterday. It's prob fair to be paranoid of me being a smooth operator and acting like I didn't care and just hoping Shirou went down instead without incriminating myself, but I do want to point out that yesterday was really bad for me if I were scum.

Similar reasoning applies to Shirou as well if he is scum, though he was a little more boxed in mechanically since I had my N5 doc role to take myself out of the limpool. but then I think back to D4 where Shirou posted a whole ton of mechanics analysis and a lot of it bad for scum!Shirou, it's effectively the plan we followed, and I wonder if he really can get this far and expect to win just by trying to play mechanically as if he were town

I need to reread some of D4 with this in mind where Shirou was talking about changing the plan and try to refresh myself what exactly he was suggesting

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, D5* when Shirou was suggesting changing the plan

[Tejate Raichu]

Aw man, I'm conftown and I'm not dead? Alright, let's do this.

I do wonder if there's a reason for Enchant dying rather than Tejate, or if it's just WIFOM.

Doubtful. No one was ever going to vote for Enchant anyways, only reason to keep them around was good ol paranoia.

[GuiltyLion]

idk overall I still think if I had to bet on it I'd pick Shirou over Ceph given a lot of Shirou's earlier play, but Ceph explaining the motivation behind his check would be helpful, and I should probably reread some critical parts of the game again.

I did check overnight when on D2 nQ outed his Ceph result and it was after everyone else had already posted, so it was safe to do if the team was Ceph/nQ and they didn't want to risk another cop CCing the result. nQ's D1 tunnel on Ceph was really weird and I remember calling it out at the time, regardless of Ceph's alignment I think that claim was to enable nQ to back off of his projected "scum!Ceph" trajectory

[GuiltyLion]

[

numberQ's

] vote has been parked on Ceph but I don't see him engaging with any of Ceph's later content nor working to convince people to also vote there, instead his vote is just kinda languishing.

I also think this is one of the most indicative things I called out in my giant reads post and I want more people to think about / engage with this as well

numberQ is not behaving like someone who still thinks Ceph is the best vote for today

this being what I'm referring to in 3963

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

[fua]

I just don't understand why Ceph wouldn't check GL or Shirou when it literally ends the game no matter what the flip is if he's town.

[Tejate Raichu]

In his defense, I had some lingering paranoia about you. I might have checked you if I was a night 5 cop instead of a night 3 doc. Regardless, fua, do you have an opinion on my proposal? Does everyone in the pool look too scummy for this to work?

[fua]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

I would vote for Ceph before I vote for either of GL or Shirou. If it's the final three then I GUESS I would rather vote for Shirou because I would feel a little weird about letting him win if he is scum + his game is just a little more scummy than GL's from a holistic standpoint. But I think Ceph is just scum here so we should win.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm a firm believer that D1 and D2 with the sum totality of knowledge of the alignments of all the flipped players will probably ultimately be more helpful than D4/D5 when scum have more of an endgame plan, so I'll likely reread those days again at some point this weekend and try to decide which of Shirou/Ceph I think is scum

[Shirou]

it's effectively the plan we followed, and I wonder if he really can get this far and expect to win just by trying to play mechanically as if he were town

*nod*

this was literally the plan:

One of the cops check one of Shirou/NQ, and we eliminate the other. Who we eliminated was based on who in Meg/Ceph dies, so since Meg that had to check NQ died, we eliminated NQ. If Ceph had died, it would be me. Effectively making impossible for a Shirou/NQ team to win.

What I wanted to change back on D5 was that if it was GL/Fua the team, it was better to eliminate ME first, and have Ceph check NQ. I never tried to change the plan to do if we eliminated NQ first, which would be for the cop to check me, but since we were in 6:6 on claims, it was also viable to check you.

I think even if you believe in me playing for WIFOM, there's a difference between WIFOM and just digging the hole yourself single-handedly you know...

If Ceph/Tejate had done what I said yesterday to do if NQ flipped scum (and had also said since D4), I would have already lost this game.

[Shirou]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

Your idea sounds good I think...

except I know I'm town and probably never picked as the assumed town here so basically from my PoV we either win today or likely lose

WHICH IS WHY I DIDN'T WANT A FUA CHECK IF NQ FLIPPED SCUM.

[fua]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

Your idea sounds good I think...

except I know I'm town and probably never picked as the assumed town here so basically from my PoV we either win today or likely lose

WHICH IS WHY I DIDN'T WANT A FUA CHECK IF NQ FLIPPED SCUM.

If it's any consolation I won't vote for you today.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm a firm believer that D1 and D2 with the sum totality of knowledge of the alignments of all the flipped players will probably ultimately be more helpful than D4/D5 when scum have more of an endgame plan, so I'll likely reread those days again at some point this weekend and try to decide which of Shirou/Ceph I think is scum

I was thinking a lot about day 1 between praying that I'd be the night kill so I could say hi to Amazonian. If I had followed up on my nQ or even redtea push harder, we might not be in this situation in the first place... I have a bad habit of sometimes losing a lot of confidence in my reads.

Regardless, I'm still not sure who I think the third scum is. I'm honestly not that sure if there's a good reason for scum!Ceph to clear fua. I think fua was still miselim potential. That doesn't necessarily make them town, but hm. Right now if I had to pick someone to not vote, it would probably be between GL or Ceph.

[Shirou]

Well, let's see, if my math isn't off we have 2 eliminations and 3 suspects. Maybe instead of trying to scumread someone today, I might have a better idea.

Let's try to think of who we absolutely will not vote for in the pool of Ceph/GL/Shirou. If we get one good townread in this pool, we win the game. And it should theoretically be easier than trying to scumtell at this point.

Your idea sounds good I think...

except I know I'm town and probably never picked as the assumed town here so basically from my PoV we either win today or likely lose

WHICH IS WHY I DIDN'T WANT A FUA CHECK IF NQ FLIPPED SCUM.

If it's any consolation I won't vote for you today.

kkkk

thanks?