Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

Would you be comfortable with having Ceph choose between checking fua or you on nQ townflip?

Hmm, on town flip?

I totally would but just to be clear, if I'm scum I would be taking advantage of you guys with that. If NQ flips town and you get a guilty on me, it would be kinda suboptimal rather than for example an inno on Fua to confirm that the team is GL/Shirou.

Of course knowing my alignment...I know that an inno on me here on a NQ town flip would simply confirm it to be Fua/GL and from there the game would be basically over (if we aren't wrong on Enchant), but yeah, it relies on me being town to be a good idea, and that isn't public information now is it...

[Shirou]

also hm...sorry I feel like I'm being too bossy. I may be quick to suggest stuff but I also like to not be too stubborn on compromising. At least I feel it doesn't make me an entirely problematic person to deal with, just half problematic.

[GuiltyLion]

I think what's making this game weird is it seems to me either

1) whoever is scum in the usual suspects is not trying for a viable endgame plan and is just playing how they think town in their spot would play it, or
2) scum is some wildly unsuspected team like Enchant/fua or something and just laughing at all of us lost townies trying to outmech each other.

but I don't want to paranoia about the unsuspected teams because if it really is just like nQ/Shirou then this is their only way to play it being boxed in without just outing themselves by pushing conspiracy theories, and because I just kinda fundamentally TR Enchant and Ceph (and even fua I suppose)

[Shirou]

1) whoever is scum in the usual suspects is not trying for a viable endgame plan and is just playing how they think town in their spot would play it, or

Hm, I agree so hard with this if NQ is the scum.

I feel like, if they were scum they had such a good shot on eliminating me today and throwing town on chaos tomorrow but they would have missed momentum by trying to play how they think they would play as town, and now it would be making they pay the price.

But I also feel like scum!NQ wouldn't do that maybe...? I don't know NQ well enough.

I guess the same could be said for me maybe but I personally know I'm not scum so...

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, the thing that's making me feel most optimistic about nQ scum is that his play/solviness really has fallen off in terms of effort/energy as the game has gone on. and I didn't especially like his D1 all that much. so I am hoping/thinking he's scum until proven otherwise

I guess the nightmare scenario is nQ/Enchant team

[GuiltyLion]

Shirou imagine we're both town and we get nQ scumflip and fua inno and we spend f5 arguing that we should each be the lim ourselves lmao

I don't mind being miseliminated if it correctly POE solves but I hate being the game-losing miselimination, so uh... fun times ahead for us if Enchant is scum I guess lol

[Shirou]

Spoiler: useless meta trivia from me

metawise I can affirm that I never played for town wincon more than mafia wincon like I'm doing here, but I know no one cares and neither they should technically speaking. Just trivia info for postgame I guess?

When I suggest something as scum, even if at times (quite frequently in fact) it was truly pro-town and optimal, it often relied on suggesting it when I was immensely distrusted or in a way that would make me distrusted, just so that even if it was optimal, people wouldn't actually follow it and therefore later when the game is a mess, I could say "well, my suggestion was gonna leave us on a better state than this" for town credit.

The distrust part would be kinda on point this game but...I kept pushing for it until it was accepted as the correct play right? I could have given up on that much sooner if I didn't want everyone following it. At the beginning no one even cared that much about it but I kept insisting.

p-edit: I think if Enchant is scum this game would be funny so I'm fine losing to them to be honest. It would be a defeat due to...everyone's fault so technically no one fault? That's an acceptable outcome I think.

p-edit 2: kkkkkk

That would be quite funny.

Honestly I don't scum read your play as much as by process of elimination I think you are the most likely scum. Other than the redtea insistence I guess, that's still creepy to me on hindsight.

[Tejate Raichu]

I don't think it's worth being paranoid about. We all just need to collectively say now that we're willing to take the L if Enchant is scum. Because it really doesn't matter who they're buddied with if they're scum, we just lose to it no matter what.

[fua]

Yeah, if Enchant is scum I'll just take the L because that would absolutely blow my mind and I would give HUGE props to both him and Ydrasse because. Wow.

Anyway, NQ flipping confirms we'll kill one scum by tomorrow, so...

VOTE: NQ

That's 5.

[GuiltyLion]

Honestly I don't scum read your play as much as by process of elimination I think you are the most likely scum. Other than the redtea insistence I guess, that's still creepy to me on hindsight.

eh, I still don't like how you were so insistent on not limming redtea for multiple days and then didn't even investigate me to clear me when you had the chance

[Tejate Raichu]

Is that hammer?

[fua]

That's 5.

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, while we're still here I guess, I just want to say that if nQ flips town I'm okay with letting him choose between Shirou and fua investigation. Up to his discretion.

[GuiltyLion]

I still gutfeel I would rather the investigate be fua or myself to cover more paranoia scenarios, but I guess I also just have to accept that if nQ flips town and Shirou is town then we've just lost. heck we've lost in that world even if I am cleared cause I'd probably cast a game losing vote on Shirou lol

[Shirou]

Honestly I don't scum read your play as much as by process of elimination I think you are the most likely scum. Other than the redtea insistence I guess, that's still creepy to me on hindsight.

eh, I still don't like how you were so insistent on not limming redtea for multiple days and then didn't even investigate me to clear me when you had the chance

Yeah, it's fair to suspect me for that yeah.

Do you know what it's funny though?

If I hadn't checked redtea meta, I probably would have simply shrugged off and voted the slot like everyone else. That adds to truly like...the tenth or so time where checking a player "meta" made me get their alignment wrong even if normally I may have got it right without checking.

I really think I'm cursed with this meta stuff. I don't know, maybe I've no ability for it, I rarely ever get a meta read correctly so I've been thinking about stopping using it in most cases altogether (I did even argue for people not using on meta in DK on Team Mafia, which by the way was the correct play because DK was also scum there even if ~towny~ by meta arguments by their friends/acquaintances). Redtea was so hard to read that I thought maybe, just maybe, meta would finally help me, but oh...how wrong I was.

kkkkkk

This game may have been a town win simply by me never defending redtea here, because I probably wouldn't have started the chain of events that did lead me to dropping from one of the highest consensus town read to one of the highest consensus scum read, therefore we would perhaps have an extra elimination than we do now, and that would be a lot. I may use this game to explain why I don't like using meta personally in the future (even if I think it's a good tool when used by the right people in the right way).

[Shirou]

I still gutfeel I would rather the investigate be fua or myself to cover more paranoia scenarios, but I guess I also just have to accept that if nQ flips town and Shirou is town then we've just lost. heck we've lost in that world even if I am cleared cause I'd probably cast a game losing vote on Shirou lol

Same to me if both you and NQ are town. We kinda already lost the game in that scenario in my opinion.

[Shirou]

If you're town though GL, even if I was right on implo, I still think you kinda deserve that scum hunting hat we discussed on Day 2 or so due to getting redtea right here and insisting on it from Day 1.

[Shirou]

Implo was my iconic "I town read them but everyone else thinks they may be scum" read here, except redtea also did fit the bill, and most of the time I only have one of those reads, so no surprise I was wrong on redtea huh! kkkkk

In the future if I end up with two of those reads I may rethink defending them.

It's also funny that I did look at a lot of redtea games and got they wrong, but merely followed my gut on implo and got it right.

[Cephrir]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

"hey friends, who should i kill tonight?"

-_-

[Tejate Raichu]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

"hey friends, who should i kill tonight?"

-_-

Flashback to Shirou silently removing himself from cop pools.

[Shirou]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

"hey friends, who should i kill tonight?"

-_-

uh...sure.

Flashback to Shirou silently removing himself from cop pools.

If I remove myself from cop checks you guys see it in a negative light, but if I want to be copped now it's also bad.

What do you guys want exactly...

[Cephrir]

i mean, you claim it's an important question but how is it an important question to town-you when there is nothing you can do about it anyway.

[Tejate Raichu]

If I remove myself from cop checks you guys see it in a negative light, but if I want to be copped now it's also bad.

What do you guys want exactly...

Do you want to just let Ceph choose between you and fua regardless of flip result?

[Shirou]

i mean, you claim it's an important question but how is it an important question to town-you when there is nothing you can do about it anyway.

I could have refused to kill NQ and killed myself if everyone thought I was scum no matter what, that's what I was considering when I did unvote NQ, but the mathematical chances of us winning here by that kind of chain is kinda...lower even if I do believe maybe it could have worked. Also NQ is perhaps just scum and it would be just a waste if that's the case.

Also²...everyone belittles me when I begin my "actually maybe I should just die" thing here so I kinda didn't want to go for that route again because if it failed to come to fruition, it would lower even more our chances of winning here if I'm to be in the final day against someone.

p-edit: Yeah?

[Shirou]

If I remove myself from cop checks you guys see it in a negative light, but if I want to be copped now it's also bad.

What do you guys want exactly...

Do you want to just let Ceph choose between you and fua regardless of flip result?

Basically: Yeah very much so.

It's actually a scummy thing from me even if you may not think it is, but I would like to be one of the possible targets for a cop check from Ceph because I personally know the result is always an inno on me and it would be very, very helpful.

Dare I say, the game winning move in some scenarios.