Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[numberQ]

I mean, I know you're being sarcastic but there are situations where I'd be okay letting myself die for pro-town reasons. I just think it's arguable whether this is such a situation.

[Enchant]

I need to wrap my head around this. There's a lot of plan discussion flying around and it keeps changing, and I haven't been able to stay current in the conversation. So here's what I think people are saying, please correct if wrong.

Plan 1

Lim me (numberQ).

Ceph investigates fua.

Lim fua on a guilty, GL on inno.

If fua/GL is a mislim, we're at 3p ELo out of [fua/GL], Shirou, Tejate, Enchant, and Ceph (minus 2 nightkills).
Otherwise, we have one more mislim to hit the last scum.

Plan 2

Lim Shirou.

Ceph investigates fua or GL.

On a guilty result, we get an obvious lim.
Innocent result: inno!fua means lim GL. inno!GL means lim... fua? me? Unclear.

? from here

Plan 2 is less complete than Plan 1 but in some ways that's preferable, to allow for flexible thinking as the days arrive. Plus, Plan 1 involves an immediate mislim and a stronger possibility fmpov of ELo in a very WIFOM-y gamestate. I do think we should just be trying to hit scum instead of banking on mech confirms, because of that ELo possibility.

The more I think about it the less I like me being the lim, and I was already iffy on it. Obviously this is partially from me already knowing my alignment (and Ceph's), but still. Am I looking at this wrong?

There's issue with plan 1, where GL just doesh't care and kills Ceph.
Then we elim GL and on night will be GL/Shirou/Me/Fua with still knowing nothing.

So yeah. Probably not smart thing for me to suggest.

[Tejate Raichu]

Alright I take it back, making flowcharts takes forever.

[Tejate Raichu]

Plan 1

Lim me (numberQ).

Ceph investigates fua.

Lim fua on a guilty, GL on inno.

If fua/GL is a mislim, we're at 3p ELo out of [fua/GL], Shirou, Tejate, Enchant, and Ceph (minus 2 nightkills).
Otherwise, we have one more mislim to hit the last scum.

If you are town and fua is town, neither myself nor Ceph can be scum. Which would just leave Shirou if we're still assuming the metaread is correct and Enchant is in fact town.

Plan 2

Lim Shirou.

Ceph investigates fua or GL.

On a guilty result, we get an obvious lim.
Innocent result: inno!fua means lim GL. inno!GL means lim... fua? me? Unclear.

? from here

This would be pretty much what I'd propose for a Shirou lim yeah, although I'd like to workshop it if we go that route.

[Tejate Raichu]

I haven't committed to a vote yet, so if you guys wanna switch to Shirou I'd like to properly figure out a plan of action. We don't need to commit to specific elims, but I'd at least like if we had some idea of what to do after Shirou's flip, no matter what it is.

[Enchant]

I am still strong acolyte of "Fua is town" cult.

Therefore, i don't mind at any order between NQ/Shirou (not Guilty, because one of Cops MUST be scum, while GL is... WEll there's just reason to keep him alive for now), because as long as Fua is town, it's just winning.

Let's elim Shirou if she really wants. Regardless of flip, Ceph should check... Someone between Fua/GL/Me from useful to least useful.


That's all i quess.

[Shirou]

Shouldn't I be the one to decide what to do upon my flip though? I would be the confirmed town here, fua isn't strictly confirmed yet.

It's fine to decide what to do in a hypothetical scum flip on me, but can I get to decide what to do if we flip town?

Ceph checking GL is kind of a really bad idea. If they claim a guilty you'll have literally almost 0 new info. If I flip town it should naturally be GL vs NQ (and consequentially Ceph). scum!Ceph could claim a guilty there and sit on it for the rest of the game, you would have no way to confirm it without risking losing the game.

Honestly, on a town flip on me, I believe Ceph checking NQ isn't a bad idea. Either that or fua, since if they claim a guilty on fua it's a Fua vs Ceph/NQ dayphase, which is risky to them so they may think twice before faking a guilty there if they are scum.

[Shirou]

Probably checking fua is a better idea though...it's just that, hm wow, that's a very messy gamestate. The game can be over by tomorrow and that actually never happens unless Enchant is scum if NQ is eliminated rather than me. At the very least we get an free extra scum by the NQ chain, so we at maximum only would need to find the last one.

By doing me first though, you'll need to find 2 scum, with no room for error, in a 4 players pool [Fua, GL, NQ, Ceph]. Good luck I guess?

[Enchant]

Probably checking fua is a better idea though...it's just that, hm wow, that's a very messy gamestate. The game can be over by tomorrow and that actually never happens unless Enchant is scum if NQ is eliminated rather than me. At the very least we get an free extra scum by the NQ chain, so we at maximum only would need to find the last one.

By doing me first though, you'll need to find 2 scum, with no room for error, in a 4 players pool [Fua, GL, NQ, Ceph]. Good luck I guess?

It's useless to elim Ceph if NQ is alive. So Fua/GL/NQ.

[numberQ]

Shouldn't I be the one to decide what to do upon my flip though? I would be the confirmed town here, fua isn't strictly confirmed yet.

It's fine to decide what to do in a hypothetical scum flip on me, but can I get to decide what to do if we flip town?

Ceph checking GL is kind of a really bad idea. If they claim a guilty you'll have literally almost 0 new info. If I flip town it should naturally be GL vs NQ (and consequentially Ceph). scum!Ceph could claim a guilty there and sit on it for the rest of the game, you would have no way to confirm it without risking losing the game.

Honestly, on a town flip on me, I believe Ceph checking NQ isn't a bad idea. Either that or fua, since if they claim a guilty on fua it's a Fua vs Ceph/NQ dayphase, which is risky to them so they may think twice before faking a guilty there if they are scum.

Why is Ceph checking me not a bad idea? Feels like a waste.

And I'm not convinced by this post that checking GL is a bad idea. It's weird to frame a guilty result as 0 new info, because it's a guaranteed scum kill. Seems pretty valuable to me.

[GuiltyLion]

Shirou do you

actually

think Ceph is scum though

you're trying to get us to worry about losing to Ceph/nQ team on your townflip, but nothing in Ceph's play feels like it's all that likely that he's scum here, and a hypothetical nQ/Ceph team made an extremely weird/ballsy play on N1 of all times

[GuiltyLion]

Shirou flipping scum heavily indicates GL.

this is incorrect, but it doesn't really matter if Shirou flips scum. I agree with the rest of your posts in this chain

[GuiltyLion]

FMPOV flipping Shirou/nQ first still matters little to me - the only team I'd be afraid of on Shirou scumflip is fua/nQ but if Ceph checks me then they can't miseliminate me for the win and if Ceph checks fua it confirms fua as scum (in that world).

ceph/nQ could win if Shirou townflips, that is the only risk we are taking here going Shirou first, but I don't think that's the team, I think Shirou is scum.

[GuiltyLion]

the only team I'd be afraid of on Shirou

scumflip

townflip is fua/nQ

EBWOP

[Cephrir]

I dont really see the point in me investigating nq. It makes more sense to get a result that comes with less doubt.

[GuiltyLion]

yah wait isn't that just a meaningless idea/point? if Shirou's worry is scum!nQ faked an inno on scum!Ceph, how does Ceph telling us he has an inno/guiilty on nQ resolve that worry or provide any new info either?

[fua]

An inno on anyone else is completely true. If we don’t wlim NQ and Ceph comes up with a guilty it could honestly be a ploy to win the game for a hypothetical team of those two. So my main paranoia here is if we elim Shirou who is somehow town and then Ceph checks and fake guilties me or GL since we’ve been at each other’s throats then that would be a big play. Although I’m not really sure how likely that is I feel like NQ being killed at least confirms Ceph’s result while Shirou townflip might open the gate for mad WIFOM in limlo.

[fua]

I actually think an NQ scumflip would help a lot more than a Shirou one.

[GuiltyLion]

I'll follow you wherever you go fua as a token of my townie goodwill

[fua]

Bruh.

[Cephrir]

i feel like it's remarkable that players who need to doubtcast fua in order to win if they are scum are like, all doing that

[Cephrir]

& tbh i feel like the lack of doubt against me could me attempts to pocket me & indicative that they know nq will flip town

i guess i could be reading too much into that though

[Tejate Raichu]

I still feel like nQ flip is just mechanically the better option unless we're really that sure that Shirou is scum. Outlook on nQ townflip is not the worst it could be, outlook on Shirou townflip is really bad.

[Tejate Raichu]

Ceph, since there's no way we can be on the same team, do you have a preference for elim? And if we went with Shirou, what do you think of his townflip plan?

[Tejate Raichu]

No way we can both be scumbuddies* Jesus Christ I need a coffee