Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[ribwich]

Greeting everyone. I'll let everyone know my thoughts once I get caught up.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
Santos (8): ZazieR, Moses le fou, Save the Dragon, ZTR, ribwich, oEJo, hp [leaves], Sineish, armlx
Battle Mage (1): SocioPath
Riceballtail (1): Battle Mage
armlx (1): Riceballtail
hp [leaves] (1): CarnCarn
ZTR (1): Empking

Not voting (2): Thunder, Santos

With 16 alive it is 9 to lynch.

Lynch Method Vote Count:
Rope (8): Save the Dragons, Riceballtail, Empking, Moses le fou, CarnCarn, Santos, ZazieR, ZTR
Gun (7): hp [leaves], oEJo, ribwich, SocioPath, Battle Mage, armlx, Sineish

Not voting for a lynch method (1): Thunder

If a lynch were to happen without any change in lynch method votes, the Rope would be used.

[ribwich]

But first I'm going to go ahead and

Unvote

Looks like a lynch could happen pretty soon. I don't want my predeccesor's vote to get someone lynched without first knowing if I agree with it.

[Santos]

If you honestly believe I am scum, then tell me which lynch method to vote for and I promise I will do it. What do YOU have to lose? I already know I'm lost.

[Santos]

Unvote: Rope

, TBD.

[CarnCarn]

I'm really not buying the Santos wagon ATM. It's quite likely he that just played poorly early on and is not scum at all. I really don't see the symmetry argument by armlx. Why was he so eager to believe oEJo when he said Santos was scum? Then, when I asked him about oEJo, his opinion was only that he didn't have enough info to give an opinion. I'm really finding armlx suspicious again in his wavering opinion about oEJo and his symmetry argument with little explanation.
I'm beginning to think BM is right about the Santos wagon being really opportunistic. In fact, at least two of the votes are blatant bandwagoning of the most basic kind (ZTR, hp [leaves]).
I'm still thinking hp [leaves] is much more scummy.

[ribwich]

I'm currently working on a post by analysis of the game. I'm writing summaries of what people have said in their posts, and on certain ones I've written my comments on them. To make it as if I were actually in the game the whole time, I'm typing my comments at the same time as when I first read it. I'm at post #70 at the moment. I'll try to get this done as quickly and efficiently as I can.

[armlx]

Why was he so eager to believe oEJo when he said Santos was scum?

I actually brought up the idea first, several pages ago.

[CarnCarn]

I actually brought up the idea first, several pages ago.

I know this, but why are you going to take oEJo's word for it? Think about it from his perspective. He is either a townie thinking Santos is scum or another scum thinking santos is rival scum. But why wouldn't he think that both he and Santos are town?
Can you explain this:

He's scum, based on symmetry stuff.

This. More lynch plz.

Why do you trust it?

[armlx]

But why wouldn't he think that both he and Santos are town?

I've explained the symmetry thing enough times already.....

[oEJo]

There are two claimed neighbor pairs. Yes, I know this is outguessing the mod, but it seems, to me, the most logical.

I am a neighbo

u

rs with Santos.

armlx and CarnCarn are also neighbo

u

rs.

As armlx has already pointed out, this setup of neighbours is most likely symmetric. It just makes sense.

If Santos, for some obscure reason flips town, I'm assuming armlx and CarnCarn are scum - I doubt this though.

I'm quite sure one of armlx and CarnCarn are scum.

Somebody on the rope wagon should vote gun now.

[oEJo]

EBWOP: Neighbour

s

[Moses le fou]

I put my vote on Santos a while back for the reasons armlx keeps reiterating. Granted, I have my doubts about him being scum, but nobody else comes close to being on my scumdar like he does at this point.

Furthermore, I think it'll do us good to get information on these neighbors. Armlx's symmetry argument is spot-on, simply because of game balance. But here's what happens if we lynch Santos:

If he's town -- Our aim goes directly to oEJo. He's either scum or both armlx and CarnCarn are.

If he's scum -- Once again, our aim goes directly to oEJo. Either he's scum and both armlx and CarnCarn are cleared or oEJo is scum and one of the two is as well. Furthermore, we know what whichever one is scum is on Santos's opposing team. If we lynch Santos with rope and he dies, we know to kill the other neighborscum with a gun and vice versa.

Granted, this is what armlx has been saying all along, but by lynching Santos (and finding out for sure whether he's scum), we're cutting the number of theoretical possiblities in half.

If somebody can give a foolproof reason why we should lynch another of the neighbors, I might do it (though the arguments for lynching armlx haven't been as convincing as those against Santos), but today, nothing will help us more than lynching one of the neighbors.

[Santos]

Hmm, I'm not convinced on this plan. Why?

Oh, because its my neck in the noose (or gun to the head) at this point!

[Moses le fou]

Hmm, I'm not convinced on this plan. Why?

Oh, because its my neck in the noose (or gun to the head) at this point!

Could you give us a solid defense, explaining why armlx, oEJo or CarnCarn would make better lynch fodder?

[hp [leaves]]

I don't agree with Moses' plan. His plan won't get far because there aren't just two Neighbor groups. There are three. That's because I'm a neighbor too. My partner can come and reveal himself when he wants.

Also I had placed a hint in one of my previous posts (even before Santos had claimed he was a mason of some kind)

I also unvote and vote: moses because I'm thinking he's trying too hard and pointing out ideas is a neighbor's duty.

Since there are at least three mason-like groups, the symmetry can be like S1-t, S2-t (these two have the most chance to be in the game), S1-S2 or T-T

[CarnCarn]

Since there are at least three mason-like groups, the symmetry can be like S1-t, S2-t (these two have the most chance to be in the game), S1-S2 or T-T

Wow, this is what I've been thinking all along; there was probably a third pair. I didn't understand what you were talking about in that post you quoted, but it does make sense now.
I'm going to

Unvote: hp [leaves]

[oEJo]

Whoa... Nice breadcrumb.

Now there's something to think about.

...We're not all neighbours right?

I'm going to

Unvote

for now and re-read over a day or two.

[Battle Mage]

There are two claimed neighbor pairs. Yes, I know this is outguessing the mod, but it seems, to me, the most logical.

I am a neighbo

u

rs with Santos.

armlx and CarnCarn are also neighbo

u

rs.

As armlx has already pointed out, this setup of neighbours is most likely symmetric. It just makes sense.

If Santos, for some obscure reason flips town, I'm assuming armlx and CarnCarn are scum - I doubt this though.

I'm quite sure one of armlx and CarnCarn are scum.

Somebody on the rope wagon should vote gun now.

*facepalm*

You do realise, that if Armlx and CarnCarn are BOTH scum, they are not 'neighbours', but 'mafia'?

From where i'm sat, the symmetry Armlx is referring to, applies to both groups. As such, if Santos comes up town, you will be lynched next by your own logic. To that end, why have you chosen to make YOURSELF the test subject pair and leave those two potential scumbags with 2 mislynches, when, if you are town, you GUARANTEE a better result by lynching them first.

But, kudos for good spelling.

BM

[CarnCarn]

BM, oEJo, the spelling is wrong. Doesn't really change anything, but w/e.
And BM, Neighbor is the acual role name, but even mafia can be Neighbors, I think (unless they are only told they can night talk, and their role name is something different, like Goon or something; they could of course be both Goon and Neighbor, for example).

[CarnCarn]

Also:

...We're not all neighbours right?

[armlx]

Hmm..

Well, 3 pairs is still probaby 2 scum among them, and its pretty clearly T-T, S1-T, and S2-T now.

I think this needs to be considered more at this point.

Unvote

I'm awaiting a claim from HP's neighbor.

[Save The Dragons]

Waiting for a dead Santos.

This.

QFT.

My next post will contain the case on Santos.

The post after that will discuss everything else.

So don't lynch anyone yet.

[Save The Dragons]

Vote: Gun

I am pretty sure I voted for gun.

Fixed.

Putting the mod edit aside, Santos clearly decides he wants gun. This is a weak tell that suggests that he wants the gun more than the rope or over nothing, and the only reason he'd want one over the other is if he was scum.

Of course, this could also just mean he wants his vote counted. But trust me, it gets better:

Rope lynches scum, gun kills townies. Why would it be the other way around?

Much later in the game, he says this. Then why the hell would he vote gun in the begining if he thought this?

Can we make a list of priorities?

1) Lets hold off methods until we decide to lynch someone.
2) Lets pick a method and have a good reason to choose just that method.
3) Lets pick a method and someone to vote for immediately.

Option 3 just seems too hasty, IMO. The other two are satisfactory, and perhaps more preferable.

As for my 'bandwagon' vote I didn't want to be redundant in saying 'to add some pressure'.

I am not going to vote for a rope or gun at the moment because now it just seems to mess with other player's abilities to find scummy tells when they have become much too reliant on these abrasive lynch methods.

STD, I don't think the order really matters that much because if we lynch a scum immune to the method, then it will be obvious. Unless it becomes clear that someone is scum of a definate group, I don't see how it matters which order we settle on method and player.

This is about the most legitimate and concrete thing I have seen this entire thread.

However, these posts suggest that he does in fact understand the concept behind the two lynch methods.

Vote: Moses le fou

He places a bandwagon vote on Moses.

As for my 'bandwagon' vote I didn't want to be redundant in saying 'to add some pressure'.

In his next post, he says he didn't want to say "he's just adding pressure."

Pressure is a bullshit reason. I'm sorry, it is. It's easily used as a seemingly legit reason, when in reality, it's a way for scum to slide onto a bandwagon (not that I'm particularly happy with the way that people have been sliding onto the Santos wagon).

Unvote: Moses le fou

.

Then, all of a sudden, he unvotes. Why?

I have been examining Riceballtail's play and I am impressed with his performance. I'm not sure whether I want to follow it or not. There is nothing ambiguous at all in his posting skills. Its either a very good scum poster, or a very careful power role. I aspire to play this way :p

But he still appluads RBT's play. Why is he following him if he's not sure whether he's scum or town? Is that why you unvoted?

I can't help myself. The claim for having a mason and NOT knowing the other mason's alignment bugs me. Is there more we can break from this? Obviously the plain fact that they're masons we would naturally assume they would both be town aligned, but adding in the fact that they do not know each other's alignment makes me a lot more skeptical. I mean, what good is having this ability? EX: If I were in CarnCarn/armlx's shoes why not just talk in the game thread to each other?

He has the exact same role! How can he say that them having something he doesn't have bothers him?

Seriously. Armlx and CarnCarn, masons, are like Santos and oEJo. So why is he doubting something their role doesn't have if he doesn't have it himself? If he sees that they have the exact same details as him, that should help confirm them as their role (not alignment, of course, but their role).

There are no discrepancies I have made unless someone can point them out to which I can better explain them (although I have multiple times :/ )

I don't see any explaination about the lynch method or the mason doubting, both of which are contradictions he's made.

Sure. If that's what you think when you touch yourself at night :p

I would vote for myself if I was scum. Put that in your pipe and smoke it :p

I see posts like this as the response.

So, Empking, BM, and all the other naysayers, there never was no reason for this wagon. There were bandwagon hoppers, and I assure you that I'm aware of them, and if I am wrong about Santos, I'll be looking their direction too (and you all should look my way). But I do not think that Santos's actions have been pro-town, and I have already given my reasons several times.

[Save The Dragons]

FOS: Moses

.

Sounds like you're more sure of oEJo than Santos, considering he's likely to be scum in your eyes regardless of Santos's alignment. So why not vote him?

Goddamnit. The Santos wagon is riddled with scum.

ZTR, HP [leaves], oEJo, Moses, even armlx blipped my radar for something minor.

My partner can come and reveal himself when he wants.

Sup. I was like, "WHOA WHAT THE HECK DID YOU JUST DO" at first...but then I realized it was a breadcrumb, and I was like, "Oh. cool."

Hp and I are neighbors

.

There would be no S1-S1 or S2-S2 neighbor groups. And fakeclaiming masons on day 1 is really bad, especially considering they know one of the two can be killed. Especially without foreknowledge of other pairs.