Mini 2251: Triplicate! GAME OVER!

[mastina]

I have a guess for House's role anyway.

Please elaborate since's he's unwilling to claim.

It's pretty obvious he's the neighborizer.

Somebody made a neighborhood at the end of N1 with a bunch of people--the names chosen fit with being selected by House. Given his previous move as a neighborizer, it seems to just fit.

We know that something caused the neighborhood to form.

The options are:
A mod mechanic that was completely random;
A scum mechanic where they needed to choose the members (maybe with restrictions);
A role mechanic where it is a specific player's role. (Said player can be town or scum, but if scum I consider this still separate from the above as the second option is not tied to a specific scum role whereas this option is.) You can subdivide this into "town role" or "scum role", but it's the most likely of the three imo.

Mechanics where the scumteam has to choose things is more of a schadd_ mechanic than a Jingle mechanic (most MBOS games have it); mechanics which are completely random triggering at the end of N1 are possible, but unlikely; roles causing this effect seem to fit with Jingle's design modus operandi much better.

It can't be RR, you, or me; Alyssa and Amy have now claimed VT; as a consequence? Process of elimination, it's House.

Setup spec wise, I'll admit that my assumption of the gamestate is probably at least partially wrong: it doesn't make sense for House and RR to both be town with you as town, Titus, but it also doesn't make much sense for House and RR to both be scum, either. The town's too strong imo with both as town, but too weak with both as scum. If I had to pick one tho, well, if the hilariously-scumsided Mini Normal is anything to go by, the more likely of the two is both-scum imo. (Basically, we had one game that was tremendously scumsided beyond what's acceptable, and while both House and RR being scum would mean the town has a grand total of two PRs meaning they're tremendously underpowered, if I had to choose between the setup being townsided with both as town or scumsided with both as scum, I'm choosing it being scumsided every time given the Normal.)

So if I were to rank the options, by mechanics-speculation alone, it'd be:
One of {House, RR} scum, the other town > both {House, RR} scum > both {House, RR} town.

By PLAY, it'd be both {House, RR} scum > One of {House, RR} scum, the other town > both {House, RR} town, tho.

mastina, what if Titus HAD died? Who would you suspect in that case?

Genuinely? House. He has the most incentive to kill her. While he

could

keep her alive, for orchestrating a deliberate Titus v House fight (as a sort of distraction from RR vs Amy), nobody has as much reason to kill Titus as House would. Amy might be a close second and Alyssa a close third, but the player with the least reason to kill her is you.

A50 protected RCE night 1, so I'm inclined to view Alyssa as town. That creates the problem of three people that might have been shot night 1.

VERY important question: Did A50 claim the bodyguard BP protection

on RCE

during N1?

Take a look at the timestamps since this is

very

important.

Almost50 ordered the RCE kill in game 1. If he made an RCE protect in game two, it meant he knew that there was a chance the scumteam from game 2 would kill RCE and eliminate RCE's voice from the game (keep in mind that N1 was before the formation of the neighborhood PT).

(Btw this makes me like 100% sure Titus is town as I can't see that as a fakeclaim and can't see it as anything as true from A50 since this tracks 100% entirely with what he would be likely to do so the scumteam cannot be Titus + RR.)

I tend to agree that it makes it very likely that Alyssa is town especially if A50's protection was not announced until after N1 in the theme game had ended.

Which would make the possible scum be limited to {RR, House, Amy Dunne}.

Gonna pagetop this as I feel it's important.

[Radical Rat]

[Titus expressed intent to protect me last night. If I'm scum, I no kill there and play it as if scum had attacked me. We miss out on the kill, yes, but I get mostly confirmed and can make up whatever results I need and interpret them in plausibly deniable ways.

The problem with that is that a failed kill gives the town an extra mislim. You v Amy Dunne is a 1v1. With an extra mislim, we'd be able to eliminate Amy Dunne for free. And then you'd be outed as confscum for having lied. And you couldn't win because you gave the town an extra elimination.

We're on evens now. A no-kill after an elimination would've brought us up to odds again. With a no-kill, today is seven alive rather than six. With two scum left in the game, that means we can safely kill Amy Dunne today and then tomorrow, it's 5p lylo but you're outed as confscum.

So no.

You could not no-kill last night.

Doing so would've been gamethrowing.

Only if I'd claimed the same results I did truthfully here.
As scum with knowledge of an extant protective role, I know that we're only in fake MeLo here, and as such would fabricate results that expand my allowed misses.

[House]

Prodding House.

Sorry. Been reading along... just nothing with saying when nobody is listening.

[House]

Prodding House.

Sorry. Been reading along... just nothing worth* saying when nobody is listening.

EBWOP

[Amy Dunne]

[Titus expressed intent to protect me last night. If I'm scum, I no kill there and play it as if scum had attacked me. We miss out on the kill, yes, but I get mostly confirmed and can make up whatever results I need and interpret them in plausibly deniable ways.

The problem with that is that a failed kill gives the town an extra mislim. You v Amy Dunne is a 1v1. With an extra mislim, we'd be able to eliminate Amy Dunne for free. And then you'd be outed as confscum for having lied. And you couldn't win because you gave the town an extra elimination.

We're on evens now. A no-kill after an elimination would've brought us up to odds again. With a no-kill, today is seven alive rather than six. With two scum left in the game, that means we can safely kill Amy Dunne today and then tomorrow, it's 5p lylo but you're outed as confscum.

So no.

You could not no-kill last night.

Doing so would've been gamethrowing.

Only if I'd claimed the same results I did truthfully here.
As scum with knowledge of an extant protective role, I know that we're only in fake MeLo here, and as such would fabricate results that expand my allowed misses.

The only thing that is “truthful” about any of this, is that you did fabricate bullshit results to get both Dunn and me miselimed.

[Amy Dunne]

On reread I see something was really off about the Dunn push. That it was obvious you were faking that result but he was obviously a much easier miselim than me. It’s pretty ingenious actually. You position two townies, claiming one of them has to be scum. Push the more mislimable one first, then the more obvious town next. How this isn’t clear to absolutely everyone yet, is mind blowing.

[Titus]

Mastina, if we survive and flip, I am voting House. I'd rather flip him today but it's not happening. So I don't get where your concern about me gamethrowing is coming ftom.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

What was the order of the claims?

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Ircher has issues with the claims out there being balanced if RR is town

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I think i forgot to mention this before, but Dunn thinks Amy is scum

[Titus]

Ircher has issues with the claims out there being balanced if RR is town

This is part of the reason I am willing to change my vote, despite RR being a tonal townread. I feel like House's early vote may have been distancing especially given he won't put it back regarding the mechanics of the situation. The way RR claimed it, he could have been a universal backup including a scum role as well. I don't expect RR to be lying about being a universal backup unless he knew no one could catch him in the lie.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Idk

Like I said before, jingle setups with novel ideas like this tend to be broken in general from my experience, so that isn't all that convincing to me

[Titus]

What was the order of the claims?

Cheeky hinted at his role Day 1 when under pressure in the day game. RR reassured him almost immediately there after that he was a universal backup. I didn't claim until much later as I didn't feel it strategically advantageous to do so. My claim was largely motivated by what I felt were strategical errors in our assumption that scum shot an outed third party bulletproof.

[Titus]

Idk

Like I said before, jingle setups with novel ideas like this tend to be broken in general from my experience, so that isn't all that convincing to me

This might be that situation. This feels like the role was particularly forced to get a result of some sort if RR is town. If Cheeky gets killed, then RR comes by and gets a result. If scum try to shoot an outed role, then the bodyguard should have protected them. *side eye A50* The only situation I see with that is scum should have a counter to follow the investigation unless the investigation doesn't feel gamebreaking to Jingle. Wagon sensor and similar roles tend to be some of the most controversial on mafiascum.

[Radical Rat]

I agree with Ircher that the balance is fucked here, which is a significant part of why I thought it had to be Dunnstral scum over Amy, despite Amy's play heavily pinging me.

I don't agree with Ircher that I need to be eliminated here, but as I've said, I'm okay with it if that's what has to happen, and we still have a chance as long as everyone plays perfectly from then on.

[House]

Mastina, if we survive and flip, I am voting House. I'd rather flip him today but it's not happening. So I don't get where your concern about me gamethrowing is coming ftom.

What. A. Surprise.

[House]

That should hold me for 24 hours.

[Amy Dunne]

Anyway, I need to go to work now.

Dunnstral is the best elimination in both games, but T3 needs to be the next vote for Game 2 wagon purposes. I suppose if Cheeky, Chloe, or Dwlee want to vote as well, they can, but no one alive in Game 2 except T3, please and thank you.

[mastina]

Only if I'd claimed the same results I did truthfully here.
As scum with knowledge of an extant protective role, I know that we're only in fake MeLo here, and as such would fabricate results that expand my allowed misses.

???

You claimed on D4 that there was a scum within Amy Dunne and Dunnstral.
We eliminated Dunnstral--he was not scum.
If there was no kill last night, we go up to seven alive, and can eliminate Amy Dunne safely. And if she flipped town?
Then we know you were lying come 5p lylo, and you get eliminated. Clearing Titus does nothing to change the outcome of that--being a proven liar is something you can't work around.

The only way for you to avoid that is to have not said there was an alignment change between Amy Dunne and Dunnstral on D4. Which is before Titus hinted at protecting you.

[Amy Dunne]

I agree with Ircher that the balance is fucked here, which is a significant part of why I thought it had to be Dunnstral scum over Amy, despite Amy's play heavily pinging me.

I don't agree with Ircher that I need to be eliminated here, but as I've said, I'm okay with it if that's what has to happen, and we still have a chance as long as everyone plays perfectly from then on.

Because I just didn’t fully trust you after you sounded the same as in game A and it turned out I was right about that but I’m sure you’ll find a way to flip that around on me to fit your narrative.

[mastina]

I don't get where your concern about me gamethrowing is coming from.

Well if RR were scum and you refused to vote him, then it'd be gamethrowing, but you've since reassured me that isn't the case, so I am a lot less concerned.

This might be that situation. This feels like the role was particularly forced to get a result of some sort if RR is town. If Cheeky gets killed, then RR comes by and gets a result. If scum try to shoot an outed role, then the bodyguard should have protected them. *side eye A50* The only situation I see with that is scum should have a counter to follow the investigation unless the investigation doesn't feel gamebreaking to Jingle. Wagon sensor and similar roles tend to be some of the most controversial on mafiascum.

Well, Dwlee did have hated/loved, and I am a 3p (on a site that tends to policy-eliminate 3ps so I can theoretically have incentive to not claim), and both of those can significantly affect the balance of the wagon sensor.

It wouldn't surprise me if Jingle thought that the 3p wouldn't claim 3p and would lie and say they're town, in spite of the fact that doing so would be harmful to my wincon (because I need two scum dead) and in spite of how it could risk me becoming caught in a lie.

Basically, from my perspective, I had to claim, because not doing so would have ensured a scum win here when I need two dead scum in order for me to have a chance at winning. And if I hadn't claimed, down the line, I wouldn't have been able to. The town would rightly have asked, "if you had claimed earlier, you could've saved (mislims from me having not outted), why the hell didn't you?!?" (and then promptly eliminate me and lose to the scum). Or the town would see that there's X amount of alignment changes and deduce from the flips that it means I cannot be town and eliminate me (and then promptly lose to the scum). From my perspective, that means that it's mandatory for me to have claimed here, because the wagon sensor literally forces it if I am on the wagon that gets sensored. (And as I don't have any information about a wagon sensor, I have no way to know about it in advance.)

But Jingle probably didn't think about that interaction. He probably assumed a 3p wouldn't claim 3p even tho the wagon sensor basically makes it mandatory, because Jingle wouldn't think about how the wagon sensor would make a claim from the 3p on the wagon be mandatory. So he probably balanced it around the assumption that I

wouldn't

claim, because he failed to take into account the interactions above which make claiming mandatory to have a chance at winning.

All that said?

I agree with you.

Bodyguard-BP + unlimited wagon sensor + universal backup is too much imo even if Jingle didn't take into account that I'd be required to claim.

[Amy Dunne]

On reread I see something was really off about the Dunn push. That it was obvious you were faking that result but he was obviously a much easier miselim than me. It’s pretty ingenious actually. You position two townies, claiming one of them has to be scum. Push the more mislimable one first, then the more obvious town next. How this isn’t clear to absolutely everyone yet, is mind blowing.

I like how RR completely ignored this post.

[Amy Dunne]

I don't get where your concern about me gamethrowing is coming from.

Well if RR were scum and you refused to vote him, then it'd be gamethrowing, but you've since reassured me that isn't the case, so I am a lot less concerned.

This might be that situation. This feels like the role was particularly forced to get a result of some sort if RR is town. If Cheeky gets killed, then RR comes by and gets a result. If scum try to shoot an outed role, then the bodyguard should have protected them. *side eye A50* The only situation I see with that is scum should have a counter to follow the investigation unless the investigation doesn't feel gamebreaking to Jingle. Wagon sensor and similar roles tend to be some of the most controversial on mafiascum.

Well, Dwlee did have hated/loved, and I am a 3p (on a site that tends to policy-eliminate 3ps so I can theoretically have incentive to not claim), and both of those can significantly affect the balance of the wagon sensor.

It wouldn't surprise me if Jingle thought that the 3p wouldn't claim 3p and would lie and say they're town, in spite of the fact that doing so would be harmful to my wincon (because I need two scum dead) and in spite of how it could risk me becoming caught in a lie.

Basically, from my perspective, I had to claim, because not doing so would have ensured a scum win here when I need two dead scum in order for me to have a chance at winning. And if I hadn't claimed, down the line, I wouldn't have been able to. The town would rightly have asked, "if you had claimed earlier, you could've saved (mislims from me having not outted), why the hell didn't you?!?" (and then promptly eliminate me and lose to the scum). Or the town would see that there's X amount of alignment changes and deduce from the flips that it means I cannot be town and eliminate me (and then promptly lose to the scum). From my perspective, that means that it's mandatory for me to have claimed here, because the wagon sensor literally forces it if I am on the wagon that gets sensored. (And as I don't have any information about a wagon sensor, I have no way to know about it in advance.)

But Jingle probably didn't think about that interaction. He probably assumed a 3p wouldn't claim 3p even tho the wagon sensor basically makes it mandatory, because Jingle wouldn't think about how the wagon sensor would make a claim from the 3p on the wagon be mandatory. So he probably balanced it around the assumption that I

wouldn't

claim, because he failed to take into account the interactions above which make claiming mandatory to have a chance at winning.

All that said?

I agree with you.

Bodyguard-BP + unlimited wagon sensor + universal backup is too much imo even if Jingle didn't take into account that I'd be required to claim.

You forgot Dunn being town double voter.

[Titus]

VOTE: RR

I really want to side with my tonal reads as they have been more accurate than my mechanical reads but I still vote with hesitation. Setups for the past year or so have largely been townsided. Game A (although you disagree mastina) was largely townsided imo. Getting another townsided setup wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world.

[Jingle]

bump