Mini 2251: Triplicate! GAME OVER!

[Amy Dunne]

I am self-aware that I am not thinking critically but I do believe Dunnstral is also a good elimination for Game B at least. I've seen nothing to contradict being Mafia in A.

My reasons for scumreading Cheeky in A is best described as gun. I draw a blade dipped in poison but I don't want another haph-hazard conclusion precent a 3/3 town win.

I have distaste for T3's play if he is town in B.

I do not feel moved by the constant back snd forth between mastina, Amy, and Titus.

I wish Lady Alyssa had tea with me.

I’m not sure what back and forth you think I had with Mastina today other than I’m obviously agreeing with her on a few things?

I’ll have you know I can make a pretty mean cappuccino with whipped cream and sprinkles.

What specifically is bothering you about T3’s play in B?

[Titus]

House is town.
I wonder if Titus agrees.

Need more data.

[Radical Rat]

I just got off work, I'll post more detailed responses when I get home, but before that some quick corrections:

Demon Lord, per Dunnstral's claim, is NOT holding the previous alignment as Titus said. Town > DL > Scum would be two changes. This makes sense because it's not actually a player, and thus is neither Town nor Scum, regardless of which faction has control over it. It is still possible Dunnstral just straight lied about that, but so far nothing has contradicted it.

Also, I use They/Them pronouns please. It's not a huge deal so I don't normally go out of my way to correct it, but it's been happening a lot from several people lately and it is starting to bother me. Thank you for your consideration.

[Titus]

My apologies RR.

[Radical Rat]

Dunnstral ALSO claimed that he asked Jingle and the Demon Lord vote counts as unaligned, which negates all that.

Where? I just ISO’d him and couldn’t find that post.

@CheekyTeeky

Demon Lord doesn't have an alignment

So it's not necessarily House

[Radical Rat]

Ok. RR explain to me the Demon Lord and how it implicates House in B if Dunn is town?

Demon Lord is (or was) an anonymous extra vote controlled by Dunnstral. According to Dunn, this vote is unaligned, so we can expect an alignment change to count on either side of it in the wagon.

It does not necessarily implicate House if Dunn is Town, but rather if Dunn isn't lying about Demon Lord being unaligned, House is the only other possible scum on Meg's wagon. It doesn't necessarily mean he IS scum, just that he isn't confirmed Town.

[Radical Rat]

Why am I being paired with Dunn and not with House/Alyssa/RR/T3? I would seriously love someone to explain this?

I received a result that there were four alignment changes on Dwlee's wagon.

Dwlee's wagon was:
Amy Dunne,

Lady Chloe

,

Demon Lord

, Dunnstral,

T3

,

mastina

Demon Lord has one change before, and one change after, no matter the alignment of the surrounding votes. LC > DL and DL > Dunnstral makes two.
mastina would be similar as 3P, but she was the hammer so there is no vote after her. T3 > mastina makes three.

So where is the fourth change? It can only be between Amy and Chloe, which can only happen if Amy isn't Town, OR between Dunn and T3, which could happen if either were scum BUT since we already know T3 is Town because of Cheeky's result, it's really only possible if Dunnstral is scum. HOWEVER it cannot be both, because then I would have received a five result instead of four.

[Radical Rat]

RR you literally argued that me being town in one game would allow me to be in my town meta in solving all 3 games. You said this multiple times in fact.

So why the clear on A50 for the very thing that you tried to go out of your way to say wasn't town for me?

Because A50 didn't make up alibis that aren't actually alibis, and while I only have the one game experience with him personally, everyone in AI UPick 2 said he pulls similar shenanigans regardless of alignment.

In this game he made a conscious effort to NOT pull such shenanigans because it would be too confusing in an already overcomplicated setup. If he were scum in even one game, I'd imagine he would just go ahead and do his monkey business, because it's not out of line for Town!A50, and he could benefit from the chaos as scum, while still mostly playing the Town games as he does any other.

[Radical Rat]

Do we have any basis for Dunnstral's extra vote being unaligned other than him saying that he messaged the mod?

Because that is exactly the type of role I would expect scum to have to fuck with Cheeky's role

Nope! We have only his word, which actually kinda contradicts Cheekys. Which is among the reasons why I think that he's scum in G2/B.

How does it contradict Cheeky? Cheeky said Demon Lord counts for her analysis, but didn't say which alignment it counts as, at least as far as I recall

[Titus]

MegAzumarill (E-0):[/b]

Demon Lord

, House, mastina, CheekyTeeky, T3, Radical Rat, Dwlee99, HAMMER!

We know 4 alignment changes. Let's run it supposing Demon Lord is (1) auto scum, (2) never a change and (3) always a change. I'm excluding autotown based on Dunn's claim.

If DL is scum we get...

Scum to House (?)to mastina (?1) to Cheeky (?2) to T3 (?2?) to RR (?2??) to Dwelee (?2???).

If we suppose House is town then...
Scum to House (1) to mastina (2) to Cheeky (3) that's impossible. If the Demon Lord registers as scum in the chain, House is scum.

If House is scum and DL scum then
mastina (1) Cheeky (2) T3 - scum (3) RR - town(4) Dwelee
Or
Swap T3 and RR.

So the only way the DL vote can process as scum is if Dunn is lying or mistaken town and the team is House+T3/RR.

DL processing as scum is highly unlikely given how Dunn has played the claim and the logic therefrom.

DL stays the same

House to mastina (1) to Cheeky (2) to T3 (2?) to RR (2??) to Dwlee (2???)

If town House, then we don't get enough changes.
If scum House, then we don't get enough changes.

DL must change or have an alignment

IF DL autochanges

DL to House (1) to mastina (2) to Cheeky (3)

One of RR and T3 should be scum to net the 4th change...

[Titus]

RR answer your analysis on how T3 must be town here step by step

[Titus]

Ignore that.

*throws paper at wall*

I had Dwelee as town in my notes.

Recalculating

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I am self-aware that I am not thinking critically but I do believe Dunnstral is also a good elimination for Game B at least. I've seen nothing to contradict being Mafia in A.

My reasons for scumreading Cheeky in A is best described as gun. I draw a blade dipped in poison but I don't want another haph-hazard conclusion precent a 3/3 town win.

I have distaste for T3's play if he is town in B.

I do not feel moved by the constant back snd forth between mastina, Amy, and Titus.

I wish Lady Alyssa had tea with me.

when life isn't kicking my ass sure

[Titus]

MegAzumarill (E-0):[/b]

Demon Lord

, House, mastina, CheekyTeeky, T3, Radical Rat, Dwlee99, HAMMER!

We know 4 alignment changes. Let's run it supposing Demon Lord is (1) auto scum, (2) never a change and (3) always a change. I'm excluding autotown based on Dunn's claim.

If DL is scum we get...

Scum to House (?)to mastina (?1) to Cheeky (?2) to T3 (?2?) to RR (?2??) to Dwelee (?2???).

If we suppose RR is town, then we get

?12??3

Sub assumption Town House means T3 town.
Sub assumption Scum House needs scum T3.

If the DL processes as scum and RR is town, then Dunn would have to lie as town. Not happening.

If RR scum, then we get not enough changes.
Town House we get to Cheeky with 3 changes. Either way T3 unknown.
Scum House then we get to Cheeky with 2 changes which leaves not a possibility.

RR and House cannot be scum together if the DL resolves as scum.

If DL is not a change

Then the only scenario that fits is RR and T3.

If the DL is an auto change...

Dl to h1, h to m2, m to c3, c to D4.

If Autochange RR and T3 must be town.

[Titus]

Yeah, so I was a Universal Backup, and I'm Cheeky now.

Dwlee wagon once again has 4 alignment changes. Before and after Demon Lord accounts for two, and mastina's hammer for three. So that's one change unaccounted for.

[Titus]

Dwlee99 (E-0):

Amy Dunne, Lady Chloe,

Demon Lord

, Dunnstral, T3, mastina,

If RR town, 4 changes

[House]

House is town.
I wonder if Titus agrees.

Need more data.

^ see this?

Yet she hammered me without so much as a single interaction in game A.

I don't see how it's not obvious she's scum in A.

[Titus]

If autochange like RR says (and Dunn can verify) then

A to L ?, L to DL 1, DL to D 2, D to T3?, T3 to mastina 3.
If A town then, A to L 0, L to DL 1, DL to D2, D to T3?, T3 to m3. If A town D scum.
If A scum then, A to L1, L to DL 2, DL to D3, D to T3?, T3 to m4.

If autochange for DL is in place (like claimed by Dunn) then RR and T3 must be town.
This makes RR's claim true as he wouldn't gamethrow as to the number of changes.

The only way A and D can share an alignment is if D is somehow lying or mistaken about the DL.

[Titus]

House is town.
I wonder if Titus agrees.

Need more data.

^ see this?

Yet she hammered me without so much as a single interaction in game A.

I don't see how it's not obvious she's scum in A.

That was an accident.

[Titus]

What are your thoughts on game A House?
Your thoughts on Game B?

[Jingle]

Prodding Dunnstral and CheekyTeeky.

[Titus]

We can rule out any such nonsense of autoflipping scum for DL because that would require an outright lie by Dunn.

An outright lie by Dunn nets the only possible setup in Cheeky's result is scum House and scum T3 or scum RR with town House. An outright lie by Dunn means he's only partners with RR. Putting Dunn lying in astronomically low territory.

We might have #misunderstoodDunn, which nets RR and T3.

So we have #correctRR/Dunn which leads to the prevailing theory.

Long story short, here are the only universes I'll accept in no particular order

Amy and Alyssa
Amy and House
Dunn and Alyssa
Dunn and House
Dunn and RR
RR and T3 (pending confirmation from Dunn, this will likely be impossible)

[Titus]

Scratch that, there are two other moonlogic scenarios I will take, Amy or Dunn with mastina lying about 3p. I highly doubt this one but it's Math valid.

[Titus]

Sorry for the transgression, but we're flipping Dunn.

[Amy Dunne]

Hey Titus, Who are the scum in A? We’re at freaking elo in A, so why are you are you paying attention almost exclusively to B when one wrong vote could hand scum the game?