Mini Normal 2248 | A Member Of The Arsonists | Town wins

[Not_Mafia]

viewtopic.php?p=12051786#p12051786

Here's a normal where scum claimed "2-shot compulsive commuter" and I didn't believe it but got talked out of it and we lost. I won't be making the same mistake here, unless someone can give me some precedent for a back-up of an x-shot role in a normal I'll be voting Darby in 24 hours

[DArby]

Really though, has a back-up of an X-Shot role ever appeared in a normal before?

Why would I deliberately choose something outlandish?

[Not_Mafia]

Maybe you just thought a back-up whatever would sound convincing and fucked up/got unlucky with T3's flip

[DArby]

Spoiler: Context

Also, I do feel like you should claim atp StD.

vt

Egix post is exactly why I don’t think it’s NM/Egix.

I don’t think you would intentionally forget to mention your scum partner.

yes im totally poeing my partners here thats definitely it egix

explain your reads so i can actually attack what i expect is bad logic on my slot.

ben - I like 61 and posts such as 27, 175, 190 seem invested in moving the game along.
This is not something I would lock in but it's the best I've got.

T3 - Similarly to ben, attempted to get the ball rolling on page two. Also I kinda don't feel like scum posts 232.

Darby - Town feels from 249 and 297, more so from the latter.

Mozamis - Mild T feels from 101, 186.

Dragons - Just gut here really, he should be more like null but he's posted more than Thy/NM have.

Klick - Entrance to thread was awkward, posts like 233 and 280 feel like not wanting to state something until someone else already has.

cookie - reasons I stated before, plus 129 feels like scum waxing philosophical as a distraction tactic.

Smierc - Hard defends Why/NM slot despite seemingly only having a minor reason to TR them (62). 150 seems too nonsensical to be a sensible strategy.
256 also feels like a distraction tactic.

Like its so wild when im opewolfing and refuse to explain my reads i breeze through to limlo or close to it but when im town and i am trying my best to explain shit in a way others will undertand its like hurr durr scum koba!!!
Just admit u suck at using meta and move on!

To be clear, my read on you has nothing to do with meta and you outing your main did not affect my read.

I would have really liked a Why/NM read at this point...

Fuck okay, I really hate doing meta but when I have time after the holidays, I want to look at Egix scum games. I want to see how much Egix busses their partners and who they end up nking.

Actually, this is why I think the scum team is StD/NM (fmpov as town):

There’s 2 camps left. The solvers (StD/LQ) and the lurkers(NM/Egix).

I can see NM not caring as scum, but Egix not caring with her partner is really taking all power away as scum. That leaves the team as LHF. I don’t think that’s the scum team.

The solvers are on a harmony wavelength — not the same but similar enough that it feels really genuine. That’s an unnecessary amount of planning. If both were scum, all they need is to do is seem towny and vote, NM would probably hammer. That has yet to happen, so the scum team is not here either.

That means the scum team needs to be one part lurker and one part solver.

Given the nature of the deaths, and Egix post, I’d reason NM is closer from the lurkers to be scum. Given a more complicated read, StD fits the bill better than LQ. That’s where my read lies anyway.

Actually the second argument could be made about any of us actually. NM HAS to be scum.

Scum could simply vote and NM would hammer because NM.

…Unless NM is the informed and the other is a traitor, meaning the other scum doesn’t know NM is scum. But still.

Not really getting why NM HAS to be Scum here? Like this seems like jumping to conclusions which I haven't really seen from DArby so far. So far DArby has been fine with weighing their options. But all the sudden in Elo when DArby

should

be more cautions they throw caution to the wind.

I feel like this move is based on fear. StD just claimed VT. Both StD and I have been finding Egix Sus. This seems to be the order and why DArby all the sudden makes a very uncharacteristic "Fuck, Okay" post. DArby hasn't really used this kind of language. They were very polite to Pan who was actually quite harsh with DArby, but DArby never retaliated. Just don't get this expressed emotion from DArby here. Seems like it's made to cover something up.

Also, the line where DArby says, "Scum could simply vote and NM would hammer because NM." is basically saying they don't think NM plays to wincon. But we already talked about this here:

NM would probably hammer.

I may have said NM would hammer to bait you. Sorry about that.

I'm aware of how NM plays. I'd imagine it'd carry over to ELo?

I think NM still plays to win con or they would have been banned a while ago, me thinks.

Huh. Well I guess that proves NM/me aren’t s/s.

Which isn't really an answer.

It's like DArby is expecting NM to do something they don't like. I have my suspicions about this, but I will wait to talk about that for now.

I had this saved as a draft in case NM claimed PR, but I guess it's bunk at this point.

Let me say f*ck

I don’t really thinks that’s a strong argument. I’ve been lead to believe NM typically had a specific MO and so far in my interactions with him he’s followed through with it. You brought up that he would otherwise be banned, which is new information to me. Again, I think you assume I know more then I do. I’m also not sure what I’d get out of making that post as scum. If I was scum and was honest with that post, wouldn’t I at least try to test it out myself? If I’m lying and trying to bait town into something, what is it?

My SvS post still stands. It should be obvious that at the very least NM and I are not the scum team.

Also what did you want out of posting that if you felt it was bunk?

i'm hesitant to believe darby's claim for that reason but i think his play is townie so i'm torn

Who is Group Scum with DArby tho?

I sorta feel like DArby isn't the Lim for the day because they were well placed on Gamma, and I buy their explanation that they were just not here when Gamma was going to eat dirt. It lines up with their pressure vote on Gamma pretty well actually.

Could you compromise on NM?

Did I say I would?

Oh yeah the meta reading.

None of these are good responses.

DArby, why is NM Scum?

I don’t think you’re scum. Egix I’m working thru but I’ve never used the site he linked so it’s foreign to use on mobile.

NM, I feel, is one you sort by process of elimination. He makes the most sense.

[DArby]

Maybe you just thought a back-up whatever would sound convincing and fucked up/got unlucky with T3's flip

But if that’s the case why not just make another claim like fruit vendor or something that’s easier to fake?

[Not_Mafia]

And "My claim is so terrible it must be real" is not a good defence and I wish people would stop using it

[LicketyQuickety]

Well, DArby isn't Scum with NM. I'm pretty confident of that much.

[DArby]

Well, DArby isn't Scum with NM. I'm pretty confident of that much.

I’ve been saying as much, lmao.

[DArby]

And "My claim is so terrible it must be real" is not a good defence and I wish people would stop using it

Not what I’m saying. I’m saying that I play with the past of least resistance. I don’t really do gambits.

[Not_Mafia]

Your mum is a gambit

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm trying to think about what the Scum motivation is for NM rushing things and I can't come up with anything.

Who does NM think is going to vote DArby here? Like, I put some pressure on DArby, but I was clear it was just to sort them. Seems like suicide for NM to do this as Scum. Can't get my head around it.

[DArby]

I'm trying to think about what the Scum motivation is for NM rushing things and I can't come up with anything.

Who does NM think is going to vote DArby here? Like, I put some pressure on DArby, but I was clear it was just to sort them. Seems like suicide for NM to do this as Scum. Can't get my head around it.

Don’t WIFOM NM.

[DArby]

Your mum is a gambit

Don’t say that that’s how she died :/

[LicketyQuickety]

Setup talk...

TPR (Confirmed):
Neighborizer
2-shot Detective

TPR (Possible):
Backup Detective.

Say there are only 2 Group Scum and no Traitor.

Neighborizer seems pretty powerful in this situation. And Town have a Detective as well. But then I can't really see another TPR being in the game.

Say there are 2 Group Scum and a Traitor.

Then that seems very viable for there to be a Neighborizer + Detective given the Traitor. But what does that say about a Backup Detective?

Scum have an Informed role. I think with Neighborizer + Detective + Backup Detective would mean there would HAVE to be another SPR.

What roles could Scum have that would counter this? Informed + ???
Tracker, Roleblocker, Ninja (+Night Modifier), JOAT, Neapolitan, Role Cop???

A Tracker doesn't seem plausible with Neighborizer. Ninja is too strong (unless Night Modifier). JOAT would be goofy. Neapolitian and Role Cop use up most of their utility once Neighborizer claims, just like Tracker.
The only real option is Ninja + Night Modifier, but that's too strong with just 2-shot.

There are not enough TPR for there to be 3 Group Scum I think.

So, basically, what I'm saying is, DArby's claim is probably bunk.

[DArby]

LQ why did you not account for 3 group scum?

[Not_Mafia]

There are not enough TPR for there to be 3 Group Scum I think.

[DArby]

Or rather why are you discounting it?

[DArby]

The wiki doesn't mention anything about back-ups of X-shot roles but I don't see NRG approving it. Does it inherit the shots of its predecessor? Does it have its own two shots?

The wiki says

Backup is treated as a modifier to a role, causing the role to be unusable and do nothing until another player with the same role (regardless of alignment) has died.

So we basically have a 4-shot detective in an 11p game? Split across two slots. The role just simply does not exist, it is nonsense.

Also to answer your question I have my own two shots. They’re independent of T3’s.

[DArby]

Also NM isn’t trustworthy. How can he post the one I quoted and then quote the post LQ posted which contradict themselves and it not seem sus?

I can’t make a strong mech argument, but I don’t think that sounds right.

[LicketyQuickety]

NM vs Darby
Egix vs LQ
StD

NM, who do you think is more Scummy between Egix and myself? What is your read on StD?
Egix, who do you see more Scummy between NM and DArby? What is your read on StD?
DArby, who do you see as more Scummy between Edix and myself? What is your read on StD?
StD, do you still think the team is Egix/NM?

I'm currently SRing DArby and StD. I think I have the unpopular opinion here, but yup.

[DArby]

NM vs Darby
Egix vs LQ
StD

NM, who do you think is more Scummy between Egix and myself? What is your read on StD?
Egix, who do you see more Scummy between NM and DArby? What is your read on StD?
DArby, who do you see as more Scummy between Edix and myself? What is your read on StD?
StD, do you still think the team is Egix/NM?

I'm currently SRing DArby and StD. I think I have the unpopular opinion here, but yup.

I will compromise on StD.

Egix I suppose is more scummy by default but I still tr him.

[DArby]

Also I’m having trouble figuring out MU on mobile and seeing as its 48d/24n I don’t think the game styles are comparable to what I’m looking for.

[LicketyQuickety]

Also I’m having trouble figuring out MU on mobile and seeing as its 48d/24n I don’t think the game styles are comparable to what I’m looking for.

Look at the top of the thread. There are buttons to press. Like Multi-ISO and such.

[Not_Mafia]

NM, who do you think is more Scummy between Egix and myself? What is your read on StD?

I'm hard townreading StD and I have Egix as PoE scum

[LicketyQuickety]

NM, who do you think is more Scummy between Egix and myself? What is your read on StD?

I'm hard townreading StD and I have Egix as PoE scum

Why are you TRing StD?