Mini Theme 2244: 3d20 uRoll – Somewhere In New Jersey [End]

[Dwlee99]

The other possibility is that scum STD is lying about seeing "loftwing" (where we are drawing the bus drive from) visit Enchant

That or someone else visited enchant and was bus driven with Loftwing, but that isn't possible cause then we would need two doctor protections

[Loftwing]

Come to think of it, maybe StrangeMatter killed Dunnstral. I would imagine that this would be optimal for any scum member who's also a PGO. Anyone who tries to stop you will, but at the cost of their life. Anyone who investigates you will also die.

[Bingle]

I'm currently trying to find ways that owl could target every one night one. And how bingel lived after targeting enchant. And who killed dun . And also how loft lived after being tracked to enchant.

Why? Night 1 is solved, my guy.

Owl Swapped Me and Bingle.
Bingle Visited Enchant.
Save The Dragons (and presumably a protective role) target me, and get redirected to Bingle.
Save The Dragons, who is now targeting Bingle, sees that Bingle visited Enchant. It is important to note that Save The Dragons originally targeted me, and so thinks that they are seeing me visit Enchant.
(A protective role presumably targeted me as well, and was redirected into Bingle, protecting bingle from dying.)

We don't know who kill Dunnstral, and we probably won't know until the end of the game.

^occams solution.

There are other explanations for N1, but they are more complicated and also don’t give us more useful information.

I’d actually forgotten STD getting a track result of Loft -> Enchant. That means in order for enchant to have been bus driven we’d need two people who were fakeclaiming not protective as protective or std/loft/owl/reg to have been a 4 person scum team. I don’t want to live in a world where we’re considering either of those.

My phone wanted me to type “I don’t want to live in a world where we’re considering Twitter.” For once, my phone knows how I feel.

[Dwlee99]

Spoiler:

Okay so the conclusion here though is that one of loft/STD/Bingle is scum, right?

Cause a doctor only protects loftwing if they're scum with them right? Or if they are swapping loftwing and bingle and are scum with bingle so protect loftwing to protect bingle

And the doctor can't be me or mama ru cause we were roleblocked.

The other possibility is that scum STD is lying about seeing "loftwing" (where we are drawing the bus drive from) visit Enchant

That or someone else visited enchant and was bus driven with Loftwing, but that isn't possible cause then we would need two doctor protections

Summary: I think one of Bingle/STD/Loftwing has to be scum here

Anyone disagree?

[Loftwing]

I don't think that we'd need 2 players fakeclaiming prot, but I would find it rather hilarious if STD was a Mafia Double Doctor. That would've been perfect.

In any case, do we have any evidence that Cyrus is an even night Jailkeep?

[Loftwing]

Spoiler:

Okay so the conclusion here though is that one of loft/STD/Bingle is scum, right?

Cause a doctor only protects loftwing if they're scum with them right? Or if they are swapping loftwing and bingle and are scum with bingle so protect loftwing to protect bingle

And the doctor can't be me or mama ru cause we were roleblocked.

The other possibility is that scum STD is lying about seeing "loftwing" (where we are drawing the bus drive from) visit Enchant

That or someone else visited enchant and was bus driven with Loftwing, but that isn't possible cause then we would need two doctor protections

Summary: I think one of Bingle/STD/Loftwing has to be scum here

Anyone disagree?

Could you walk me through your thinking? I don't quite understand it at all.

[Dwlee99]

What isn't making sense in my logic?

[Loftwing]

I'd just like it laid out plainly, like a logical formalism or something.

[Dwlee99]

Proof that one of Loft/Bingle/STD is scum:

Assume STD is town. If not, we are done.

Assume Bingle is town. If not, we are done.

Then Loftwing must have been swapped with Bingle by the bus driver per STD's result. This implies that Loftwing was targeted with a heal, but the heal comes from scum, and scum would only want to heal scum, so loftwing is scum.

[cyrus62]

Proof that one of Loft/Bingle/STD is scum:

Assume STD is town. If not, we are done.

Assume Bingle is town. If not, we are done.

Then Loftwing must have been swapped with Bingle by the bus driver per STD's result. This implies that Loftwing was targeted with a heal, but the heal comes from scum, and scum would only want to heal scum, so loftwing is scum.

So we should all vote loft and hope std and bingel ain't scum.

[Dwlee99]

Well I don't want to dismiss the chance of bingle and or STD

I also think it might be possible to actually reach a contradiction on STD and Bingle town so I'm gonna keep working on this

[cyrus62]

Proof that one of Loft/Bingle/STD is scum:

Assume STD is town. If not, we are done.

Assume Bingle is town. If not, we are done.

Then Loftwing must have been swapped with Bingle by the bus driver per STD's result. This implies that Loftwing was targeted with a heal, but the heal comes from scum, and scum would only want to heal scum, so loftwing is scum.

So we should all vote loft and hope std and bingel ain't scum.

If loft flips scum and game doesn't end we should lock up bingel and std if no death then one of the two are scum.

[Loftwing]

Proof that one of Loft/Bingle/STD is scum:

Assume STD is town. If not, we are done.

Assume Bingle is town. If not, we are done.

Then Loftwing must have been swapped with Bingle by the bus driver per STD's result. This implies that Loftwing was targeted with a heal, but the heal comes from scum, and scum would only want to heal scum, so loftwing is scum.

Yeah, I think this is solid.

Of course, if I am scum, then I am never scum alone here, or else there would be no one to heal me.

[Dwlee99]

Correct. Which is where I'm going with this loftwing

[Dwlee99]

Okay so let's assume loftwing is scum and bingle and STD are town. Then we know mama ru and I aren't the doctor cause roleblocking shenanigans and me being obviously unpartnered with Loftwing, but there is a doctor out there that healed Loftwing. So that doctor must be cyrus, because STD/Bingle/me/mama ru aren't the doctor. But Cyrus and Loftwing aren't paired, so loftwing can't be scum while Bingle and STD are town imo.

So therefore at least one of bingle and STD have to be scum

[Loftwing]

Wait, what if me and the scum doctor were on different teams?

[Loftwing]

If we were on different scum teams, that would mean that they must either be a Mafia member (which implicates Bingle). or a werewolf (who would very much not want to heal their PGO teammate). The only alternative is that they're an alien, but then they must have failed to perform their night action on Night 2.

[Loftwing]

So, let's look at the cases for the scum doctor.

If the Scum Doctor is Mafia, then Bingle is directly implicated, as the scum doctor would have known where their final action would end up, mainly on Bingle.
However, this would also mean that there were 3 eligible mafia members who could have killed, one of them being protected (Bingle), and yet we only got 2 kills, from the Serial Killer and from the Werewolf. This is unlikely.

If the Scum Doctor is a Wolf, then they would have negative incentive to target their partner (they would die.) Therefore, they either target someone at random, or they target their other scum partner, which implicates me. In either case, I am targeted, but the bus driver swaps me and Bingle, so Bingle is protected. While improbable, this makes more logical sense than 3 mafia members all refusing to kill.

If the Scum Doctor is an Alien, then they would target their other alien friend. However, if I were an Alien, then I would be the superior protection, so they would instead target me, which would swap onto Bingle. In this case, I am also implicated. However, if I am not an Alien, then the scum doctor is also never an alien.

[Loftwing]

If a scum Doctor is Neutral, then we either have a Serial Killer on our hands, or a Jester.

[Save The Dragons]

This is mech soup and I dont eat a lot of soup

Tell me what to do and I'll do it

[Bingle]

In any case, do we have any evidence that Cyrus is an even night Jailkeep?

No.

If there is a single scum remaining, that scum is not Ru* (proven rolecop) or Dwlee (proven jk).

I don't think it's possible for Loft to be last scum here, based on N1. Loft protective targets me -> Tracker shouldn't see Enchant. Loft protective targets Owl -> Owl can't self busdrive, tracker still shouldn't see Enchant.

If STD is the sole remaining scum here then he is a protective, which means he guessed/used scum knowledge to fake tracks on all of his targets. The confusion regarding the Loft track going to Enchant does not support this.

If I am sole remaining scum there is no protective and I fakeclaimed a guilty N1 based on not actually targeting a player with an ability I actually had and could have safely used, then kept a full cop claim going into night to make myself a much more attractive NK to otherscum than I would be as a JoaT.

If cyrus is the sole remaining scum, it literally solves all of the issues.

If there are two remaining scum, either paired or unpaired, no one is hard cleared, but there still needs to be scum in STD/Bingle/Cyrus.

*Technically, Ru could have fakeclaimed the 1/400 cop finder result, a believable "I was blocked" result, and Dwlee's role, but that's even more bonkers than STD being not-a-tracker.

[Bingle]

If a scum Doctor is Neutral, then we either have a Serial Killer on our hands, or a Jester.

Jester cannot be last scum, Jesters are endgamed by town.

[Loftwing]

Well, that would be in addition to whatever scum actually exists.

[Bingle]

This is mech soup and I dont eat a lot of soup

Tell me what to do and I'll do it

There are three options:

Safe option: find protective by repeatedly no limming until Ru can check every player. Lim me then Ru if no protective is found.

Slightly less safe option: Lim me to confirm that there is a protective, then see above. This loses if there are two scum and they successfully NK through whatever action plan we have to let Loft and Dwlee stop kills.

Slightly less safe than the slightly less safe option: Lim cyrus.

We pick one of these options, and then you target whoever you're told to target. I'm fine with any of the options, still.

[Bingle]

Well, that would be in addition to whatever scum actually exists.

Yeah, there could theoretically be a Jester Doc in cyrus/STD, but considering I demonstrated the Jester win was trivial on D1 I don't know why they wouldn't have claimed by now.