Mini 659: The Neighborhood- Game over on Day 6

[Oman]

Ythill has been nailing Crywolf for a while, and if take Bionics logic above (which I will, cause I think he's town) then Crywolf is scum. Therefore, the remaining two scum from bionics set is Rash and flqwhgads unless Ythill is involved in a long and difficult bussing session.


If he wasn't the doc, i'd be happy to go after crywolf today. I'm also willing to sign off Ythill as town for now, on the condition that crywolf is scum, because I just don't see a bussing session being this long, when scum could instead be proactive and screw the town.

[crywolf20084]

I'm in class now but i'll be going to the library in an hr or so... Post comin' then.

[fhqwhgads]

Hmm... re my comment on the vig, I haven't really had much experience with the role, so I suppose it makes sense being cautious on day one. I'd have to reread, though, before I'm going to drop that one.

@bionic: I agree with the sentiment that we shouldn't go for the power rolls at the moment. I also agree with your implication that we should 'get rid of the vanilla rolls' so the big boys can fight it out. This all makes me an eventual target. I am fine with this.

On your 'accusations':

1) Low content: Sorry, I've been busy. That is, however, my problem, not yours.

2) My votes was consistent, so you point to that? While I was wrong with both Lowell and Darox, I wasn't the only one.

3) Little Scumhunting: Sure, I was probably tunneling in on Darox too much. My bad.

[crywolf20084]

M4yhem, did you get any information about elias' nightchoice on N1?

Strange that the vig did not make a choice on night 1?

I find both these comments a little odd. I think it is pretty obvious there was no vigilante kill on n1 (he had already mentioned it anyway).

I also would not expect a vigilante to kill every night - and typically not on n1.

I agree with this statment a lot. N1 is deffinately not the night to be killing somebody as a Vig.

crywolf: big city doc
m4yhem: florist/vig
Rashiminos: crossing guard / vanilla
TonyMontana: Ice Cream Man / tracker
Oman: Librarian / watcher
bionicchop2: Game Shop Owner / vanilla
fhqwhgads: Newspaper Editor / vanilla
Ythill: Postman / vanilla

My thoughts on the claimed power roles.

M4yhem: I'm inclined to believe it, but i really don't have any other sort of a read on him.

Tony: Now I don't believe him. Mostly because I don't think he ever answered the question who was your targe N1.

Oman: I'm not sure about him, and it'll be hard if he does get replaced because of the role and the volume of information we have in this game right now.

As for the vanilla's I think we are very vanilla heavy, and that is where I would like to start looking for the scum. Much easier to hide as a vanilla than a power role, IMO.

The vanilla at the top of my list is Fhq. There's been something about him in the last couple posts that have screamed, I'm hiding something from you. Don't know what yet, but I would love to find out. Thus,

Vote: Fhqwhgads

[Oman]

I will be replaced, regardless.

[gorckat]

Vote Count

(5 to lynch)

fhqwhgads(2):

bionic, crywolf

Tony(1):

Oman

Not voting (5):

M4yhem, fhqwhgads, Ythill, Rashiminos, Tony

[crywolf20084]

I will be replaced, regardless.

I forgot to mention that it's a shame.

[bionicchop2]

Oman - I notice your vote is still on Tony (from before claims), but you expressed an opinion against lynching the tracker today. Is the vote left as an oversight or is it intentional?

[Oman]

Oversight, sorry, I don't want to lynch any claimed powerroles today, we don't seem to have in excess at all (maybe +/- 1).

I'm actually going to leave the voting until I am replaced in two days max, because, well, I don't want a replacement to have to defend a vote I make here.

##Unvote

[Rashiminos]

Revealed special roles: Miller, Neighbor
Claimed special roles: Doctor, Vigilante, Tracker, Watcher
Vanilla count: 2 dead + 4 claimed

6 and 6, hmmm...

Seems special heavy to me...

Special people I think are particularly scummy: Tony for reasons I mentioned yesterday, Crywolf for still being alive and failing to protect one of two players who were killed last night, and Oman for various cop-hinting transgressions that I will soon detail:

On day 1 Oman repeated several times the idea that the presence of a miller tends to suggest a cop when it had already been said well in advance of his replacing into the game.

On day 2, Oman defends Ythill without much substance, and adamantly states Darox is town:

Can I quickly state that I doubt Ythill to be scum right now.

Can I again ask you to expand?

He's acting as I would expect town to and not how I would expect scum to. He's prolly town.

Daroxclaim is not a good idea because daroxscum does not exist.

Guess whose drunk!>!>!

Darox is totally town, dropt his shit.

Also, Crywolf totally has scumtraits, but could be town. He seems to be stumbling more than leading the town in bad directions, so I'll put him down to porkens.

These tweo wagons are bogus.

In addition, Oman was hesitant to reveal his target until after the popcorn, which fits the "I don't want to screw up my claim" aspect involved in mass-claiming. Of course, I tend to believe pro-town players are not so hesitant.

Alternatively special people I think are scummy: Ythill (duh)

I have no compunction against lynching a claimed power role today as opposed to yesterday.

A) We have possible lylo.
B) After massclaiming it stands to give us more information than lynching a vanilla.
C) I have more suspects that are not claimed vanillas than are claimed vanillas.

All that's left is to doublecheck my reasons to believe bionic and fhq are not so scummy (forthright discussion such as consistently answering questions and making unprovoked analysis on the part of the former, lack of direction on the part of the latter), and to decide who gained the most (as scum) from not hammering yesterday.

[Rashiminos]

EBWOP: As long as we're speculating about how the 4 remaining roles fit together, I'd add that with a second killer taking things into his own hands, a doc can also make sense. WIFOM, naturally.

[fhqwhgads]

Wow Crywolf. That's quite a quick jump on a new bandwagon while you are still regarded suspicious by quite a few. May I remind you the only reason you're not a main suspect now, is because of your perceived power role.

I forgot to answer Ythill's question earlier btw. My statement on you continuing your argument on crywolf isn't so much as why it is her, but rather on you still insisting on the 'townies grew up in town' argument. I don't really feel comfortable lynching on that analysis. In this case I have to agree with rash (as much as I hate it )

[Ythill]

If he wasn't the doc, i'd be happy to go after crywolf today. I'm also willing to sign off Ythill as town for now, on the condition that crywolf is scum...

This sounds like you are sure that wolf is scum, but still don't want to hang her. Am I missing something here?

My statement on you continuing your argument on crywolf isn't so much as why it is her, but rather on you still insisting on the 'townies grew up in town' argument. I don't really feel comfortable lynching on that analysis.

You speak as if that's the only reason but, in my latest reply to you #789, I said, "She was my PE#1 before the claim, it sounded suspicious when she made it, and her flavor sticks out like a sore thumb. Plus she survived last night."

The "sore thumb" statement referred not only to the not-from-here bit, but also to the fact that she is the only role without a second job title (ex. miller didn't work at the mill, he was a piano teacher, etc) and that her flavor sounded a little too bland.

Anyway, I suppose we should start working on a wagon or three. I'm still most suspicious of wolf and so will park my vote on her. However, I do see that a few of you are making the hang-vanilla-only argument and I agree that there's most likley at least one scum among the vanillas, so I'll take some time to look them over tonight and let you know what I think.

vote: crywolf20084

[bionicchop2]

Ythill - as you know I am a big supporter of the idea of crywolf being scum as I have been all game. The only problem I see right now is that

if

that lynch ends up being incorrect, it is the most harmful incorrect lynch we could have.

We have 8 players left with an assumed 3 scum. This puts us at a theoretical mylo where if we mislynch (leaves 4 town, 3 scum) and scum night kill, the game is over. Now, not banking on wolf to make a correct save if she is actually doc, but if she is doc, she can protect the vigilante (who I currently believe). The vigilante gives us a chance to rectify a mistake during this day phase. A correct vig shot puts it back at 3 town 2 scum going into tomorrow if we lynch wrong during the day.

With all that said, I prefer to lynch correct today. There are many ways relying on a vigilante can go wrong - none of which I feel are beneficial to discuss now.

[Oman]

Ythill, for my explanation, see bionicchop.

I think Wolf is good to keep alive, because she could keep our NKs down, which could save our arse here. Not only that, but there are two other scum out there we could take down, and our mulititude of power roles really means that any powerrole who is lying is pretty much screwed over the next night or two.


I really think it IS important to decided whether our vig kills or not. I've been a vigilantee, I know the selfishness that occurs when you think you can save the town, and I think that it would be dangerous as hell to rely on a vig to save us when, if Wolf

does

block the NK (though, she's more likely to be committing it IMO, but I have to play the numbers) then we're saved. A misvig would lose it for us again.

I think we should decide a few scenarios, as in: If we lynch wolfscum, vig does/doesn't (can't get the numbers) If we lynch wolftown vig does kill (because thats a loss anyway). If we lynch anotherscum, vig does not kill. If we lynch anothertown, vig does/doesn't.

[Ythill]

Sorry guys, I don't have as much time as I thought I would tonight. I started rereading the 'nillas but didn't get very far. More time tomorrow I hope.

Don't get your panties in a bunch about wolf, she's not in any danger yet.

[bionicchop2]

Oman - I think vigilante definitely needs to shoot and doctor needs to protect the vigilante. If cry is doctor, she only has 1/7 chance of protecting the right person (she could protect scum which is why it isn't 1/4). On the other hand, the vigilante has 2/6 chance of killing scum.

Since I only put a small amount of hope in cry being the doctor, I really don't want to rely on that.

If we do hit scum today, then I say vigilante must not kill. We would be at 2 scum 4 town going into night and assumed 2/3 the following day. A misfire by vig puts it at 2/2 and negates a correct lynch.

[Oman]

Good point bionic. Although directing the cop was a pretty crappy move on your point.

[bionicchop2]

Good point bionic. Although directing the cop was a pretty crappy move on your point.

I am pretty sure you meant doc here. Look at it this way - if we had one cop and one doc, we would all tell the doc to protect the cop. If we mislynch and the vig is our best shot of recovering, then you are damn right I am going to direct a doctor to protect them. If we lynch scum, then I don't care who is protected.

[gorckat]

Vote Count

(5 to lynch)

fhqwhgads(2):

bionic, crywolf

crywolf:

Ythill

Not voting (5):

M4yhem, fhqwhgads, Rashiminos, Tony, Oman

[Oman]

Good point bionic. Although directing the cop was a pretty crappy move on your point.

I am pretty sure you meant doc here. Look at it this way - if we had one cop and one doc, we would all tell the doc to protect the cop. If we mislynch and the vig is our best shot of recovering, then you are damn right I am going to direct a doctor to protect them. If we lynch scum, then I don't care who is protected.

Yeah I did mean cop. Of course, the doctor should be smart enough to know how to play without you letting everyone know. HOWEVER, II do like the WIFOM it develops, so long as the doctor doesn't listen to you, which kind of makes directing the doc pointless.

[fhqwhgads]

Good point bionic. Although directing the cop was a pretty crappy move on your point.

I am pretty sure you meant doc here. Look at it this way - if we had one cop and one doc, we would all tell the doc to protect the cop. If we mislynch and the vig is our best shot of recovering, then you are damn right I am going to direct a doctor to protect them. If we lynch scum, then I don't care who is protected.

Yeah I did mean cop. Of course, the doctor should be smart enough to know how to play without you letting everyone know. HOWEVER, II do like the WIFOM it develops, so long as the doctor doesn't listen to you, which kind of makes directing the doc pointless.

QFT.

I really dislike it when strategy is spelled out in game. The only time this is excused is when there is no mathematical possibility scum can win.

[bionicchop2]

So you are telling me that if crywolf is Doc and given her track record of protections, you would be confident in the night decision?

I choose to not take risks in this case where any alternative thinking by an individual can cost the game. Let's not forget this is crywolf's first game.

Let's just avoid the issue and focus on finding scum today. We now have 1 week to do so and we have 3 votes placed. Those not making any efforts to vote or even discuss the wagons which have started (or new wagons to starts) need to make an effort to do so immediately.

[bionicchop2]

I really dislike it when strategy is spelled out in game. The only time this is excused is when there is no mathematical possibility scum can win.

What about when there is no mathematical possibility town can win if a specific role dies (if we mislynch)?

[Oman]

Bionic, crywolf's choice is nullified if you make it for her regardless. So if she doesn't deserve to make the choice, then it doesn't matter.