Open 832: Nightless Exploder Pandemonium III - Game Over

[charlemagne]

i think strange has a significantly +rand chance of being scum here because not a single one of their posts provide game advancing content. they have justified their complete and total lack of reads by saying "idk what is going on." 237 is increasing my confidence that they aren't trying to closely read the game or even the posts that they're responding to, and they're doing kind of handwavey setup spec to seem like they actually have points of contention when they really don't have arguments at all.
the only reason they aren't like.. lockscum to me is that i don't have enough mafia experience (and may never have enough) to say conclusively that a lack of game advancing content is unidirectionally scummy; in fact, i suspect that that's untrue and it can potentially come from town. but i think that just the sheer amount of fluff in their posts—especially the longer ones like 236 and 270—points them towards +scum because it doesn't mesh with what a townie's motivations are; i'm relatively comfortable eliminating them today.

[schadd_]

236 strikes me as a little bit +scum

[StrangeMatter]

@ strange matter:

are you more interested in solving or in planning around the setup during this day phase

Right now I'm interested in figuring out who scum is, and then eliminating them today. Granted, this game I've been feeling like I haven't been able to do that (or get a good read on people) compared to other games I've played on this website.

Read on that as you will I don't care.

[StrangeMatter]

236 strikes me as a little bit +scum

Okay, can you explain this a little more?

[charlemagne]

@IV:

I would rather we got over the "we hope to get Scum on D1" plan and started planning for the explosion phase. Here's what I think:

I would assign YOU (because you ARE my only confident TR) to list 3 ordered pairs, as in:

A to explode on B
C to explode on D
E to explode on F

I would also recommend that you take into account that Clemency, A50 & Pooky have volunteered to be the 3 suicide bombers, so your task would be to assign each a target and order the pairs.

Should one of the suicide bombers refuse to fulfil their duty the "target" should then nuke them (ex: A refuses to explode on B, B should explode on A). You should also probably assign a vice-leader in case Scum went out of their way and tried to nuke you before the 3 explosions were done with. That vice-leader does NOT have the right to edit your original pairs, but can decide what's next. (Of course if the Scum who exploded on you is on your original 6 that means assigning the "now free suicidal bomber" a new target)

Think about it and let me know what you think

iv isn't a universal strong townread. they might be the closest thing to it but i don't think that iv has massively -rand chances of being scum, and the consequences of them potentially being scum are literally just straight up game over for town (unless multiple of pooky/a50/clemency are scum, which i don't believe is likely)
i'd actually prefer the baseline strategy of "chaotic suicide bombers" to this (i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum)
that being said, i do like an element of a50's strategy which is the 3 ordered pairs aspect. i think everyone in the town should list their three biggest scumreads on d1, from which we create a map of the most scumread players at the end of d1 and have "whoever gets to the trigger first" out of the three suicide bombers go first.

[innocentvillager]

^ i actually like this post lol

[schadd_]

236 strikes me as a little bit +scum

Okay, can you explain this a little more?

it reads to me a little bit like you're making excuses for Potentially sounding wolfy + this idea of worrying about whether people are being serious or joking is sort of a classic sign of tmi (i.e. already knowing that people are town, so all that's left to figure out is whether they're joking/being cagey/whatever). like maybe people are deliberately making it unclear whether they're joking and maybe there's alignment-indication to come from that. (sort of a weak point just because i don't think people do that very often)

[Enchant]

I don't think scum will just refuse, they simple explode some on random.

[schadd_]

i like a world where clemmy + pooky + a50 are designated blowers and they operate on a general vig best-practices principle where they tend to prioritize near-consensus scumreads with a little bit of their own discretion sprinkled in (if they have one). that said the reason you would prefer a chaotic explosion world is to avoid letting scum blow up a preferred nightkill target and i don't notice anyone yet that really needs saving (if i. villager is town then sure him i guess)

[numberQ]

@charlemagne, 2 questions

1) Not sure I'm grokking what the -rand and +rand syntax means that you keep using, can you clarify?

2) Your case on Strange feels very similar to my case on Pav. ISO full of either null, fluff, or scumlean posts. Do you get the same impression from my analysis on 13067125?

---

As for this D2 strategy talk, I don't know. A50's proposal that we should pick 3 ordered pairs isn't a terrible one, unless the person picking them is scum. I mean hell, if we accidentally give scum that power, I could see them totally bussing one of their teammates since it'll no longer be insta-lose and that would give them massive town cred. This isn't me saying I necessarily think IV is scum, to be clear.

charlemagne's idea of building a map of the most scumread players does mitigate that risk, though D1 scumreads are... iffy at best I'd say, without any flips to build associations. It could make sense to rebuild that map on D2, though then the strategy is tainted somewhat. What I like about the original proposal is that it sort of "locks" us in without it immediately killing us if we're wrong. Commitment hurts scum imo. Bleeding the map over into D2 reads makes that less pure.

[numberQ]

double post edit: I do not understand post tags, I keep fucking them up. Question #2 in my last post should have pointed towards 248 (url tags are much easier)

[schadd_]

i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum

how do u figure about the quality of their reads

[charlemagne]

@charlemagne, 2 questions

1) Not sure I'm grokking what the -rand and +rand syntax means that you keep using, can you clarify?

2) Your case on Strange feels very similar to my case on Pav. ISO full of either null, fluff, or scumlean posts. Do you get the same impression from my analysis on 13067125?

---

As for this D2 strategy talk, I don't know. A50's proposal that we should pick 3 ordered pairs isn't a terrible one, unless the person picking them is scum. I mean hell, if we accidentally give scum that power, I could see them totally bussing one of their teammates since it'll no longer be insta-lose and that would give them massive town cred. This isn't me saying I necessarily think IV is scum, to be clear.

charlemagne's idea of building a map of the most scumread players does mitigate that risk, though D1 scumreads are... iffy at best I'd say, without any flips to build associations. It could make sense to rebuild that map on D2, though then the strategy is tainted somewhat. What I like about the original proposal is that it sort of "locks" us in without it immediately killing us if we're wrong. Commitment hurts scum imo. Bleeding the map over into D2 reads makes that less pure.

1) +rand = more likely than random, -rand = more likely than random. i try to always keep that in mind because having a 50/50 that someone is scum is a Really Strong Scumread on d1, for example.
2) Yeah, I think that i can draw similarities. I think pav has a signal-to-noise ratio that's somewhat higher than strange's, although i agree with your overall reasoning there.

[charlemagne]

i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum

how do u figure about the quality of their reads

oh, it wasn't really a diss about the quality of their reads, i think their reads are probably better than average. i'd say the same for any player that doesn't have either RC reads or Creature levels of conftown.
for 3 reads from iv to be better than the "chaos strategy," iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of {pooky, a50, clem} to offset the chance of them being scum, which i think is unlikely. for 3 reads from iv to be better than democratization, iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of the entire town to offset the chance of iv being scum, which i think has probability ~0.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

cows l.s.r.:

did you start to approach the game differently when you got a bunch of people voting you? do you feel like you're in the clear now?

yeah, but i don't exactly have strong feelings over me being put at e-1 in seconds (which you don't have to believe, iunno how to convey that feeling)
i think the only difference between my play before and during the wagon is that i purposefully post at a higher rate/ give actual content to see how those people respond and attempt to justify their votes

i don't see how i could think im in the clear right now

[schadd_]

i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum

how do u figure about the quality of their reads

oh, it wasn't really a diss about the quality of their reads, i think their reads are probably better than average. i'd say the same for any player that doesn't have either RC reads or Creature levels of conftown.
for 3 reads from iv to be better than the "chaos strategy," iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of {pooky, a50, clem} to offset the chance of them being scum, which i think is unlikely. for 3 reads from iv to be better than democratization, iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of the entire town to offset the chance of iv being scum, which i think has probability ~0.

oo

[cowsloveSushirolls]

that said i can't try to do that today because my whole day's kinda busy
just don't get too antsy, smile

why is pooky in the POE again?

[innocentvillager]

I also don’t think scum sui’ing at me is a world I’m super concerned about tbh

And I wouldn’t trust my own reads that much let alone ask you guys to trust them

The only reason I think you should trust my reads is the fact that I am just very towny this game and so I’m unlikely to be scum

[T3]

My eyes are glazing over reading the therapy

[Not_Mafia]

VC 1.06

Pavowski (1)-

numberQ

schadd_ (0)-

T3 (1)-

StrangeMatter

innocentvillager (0)-

charlemagne (0)-

cowsloveSushirolls (3)-

PookyTheMagicalBear, Pavowski, T3

PookyTheMagicalBear (0)-

Enchant (0)-

numberQ (3)-

innocentvillager, schadd_, Almost50

StrangeMatter (2)-

cowsloveSushirolls, charlemagne

Almost50 (0)-

Clemency (0)-

Not Voting (2)-

Enchant, Clemency

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to instantly eliminate.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-10-30 21:00:00)

- Oct 30th 21:00 GMT

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

lets just get our sushi so we can play the game

[Clemency]

VOTE: cows
this is by far the most comfortable elim on the list for me so im down

[innocentvillager]

we should decide on a strategy whether that’s chaos or people voting for top scumreads to bomb each other or me choosing

Pooky whats your take on that

[innocentvillager]

yea im gonna shoot first instead of trying to coordinate cuz aint nobody listening anywY lolol

chaotic shooting is what you advocate?

[innocentvillager]

I’m potentially fine with chaotic shooting and not trying to organize this it’s just not clear to me any organized strategy is better although I haven’t thought about this that much yet