Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)


User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #32 (isolation #0) » Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:29 am

Post by Moses le fou »

Hola.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #33 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:33 am

Post by Moses le fou »

Oh, and . . .

Vote: Gun
because I've never heard anybody sing "Happiness is a Warm Rope."

and

Vote: Siniesh
because he's next in line. Well, not counting myself.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #38 (isolation #2) » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:52 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Townies can be lynched by both gun and rope, right? So if we lynch somebody by gun and that person does not die, it's safe to assume that person is Sicilian?

The first is correct. For the second, you cannot know for certain why a lynch fails.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #40 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:10 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

I guess it could be something as simple as there being a governor.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #48 (isolation #4) » Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:32 am

Post by Moses le fou »

Don't forget: we use whatever weapon happens to have the most votes (tie goes to the one that got there first) when the lynch goes through. Should we decide to choose the weapon afterward, we have to make sure that nobody hammers our potential lynch victim while we shuffle our votes.

Having said that, I'm not sure it'll matter (at least on the first day). Let's say we vote gun and and the lynch fails. While there are apparently other reasons why that lynch would fail, the most likely reason would still be because that person is Sicilian. Come night, that person's going to get night actioned up the wazoo and likely lynched the next day. Either way, they're screwed.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #60 (isolation #5) » Sat Oct 11, 2008 6:53 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Battle Mage wrote:
Moses le fou wrote:Don't forget: we use whatever weapon happens to have the most votes (tie goes to the one that got there first) when the lynch goes through. Should we decide to choose the weapon afterward, we have to make sure that nobody hammers our potential lynch victim while we shuffle our votes.

Having said that, I'm not sure it'll matter (at least on the first day). Let's say we vote gun and and the lynch fails. While there are apparently other reasons why that lynch would fail, the most likely reason would still be because that person is Sicilian. Come night, that person's going to get night actioned up the wazoo and likely lynched the next day. Either way, they're screwed.
Are you an alt of somebody?

BM
No?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #61 (isolation #6) » Sat Oct 11, 2008 7:18 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

As for the whole CarnCarn/armlx thing, I have a rough idea what CarnCarn is getting at, but if I'm right (I don't want to say it just in case CarnCarn's BSing us and I'm giving him an out), we should probably just ignore it.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #82 (isolation #7) » Sun Oct 12, 2008 9:31 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

I thought I knew what CarnCarn was talking about, but I don't understand what he's getting at now.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #116 (isolation #8) » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:32 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Ugh, the worst part about all this is that we can't go on anything that armlx has been saying. He's been playing the past four pages based off a different PM, meaning that any tells that he might have exhibited are null. Now, if we were to figure out which game he thought the PM for this one was for. . .
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #135 (isolation #9) » Tue Oct 14, 2008 4:47 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Battle Mage wrote:
armlx wrote:
Yeah, this game seems large enough to have 2 scum teams.
The set up itself implies 2 scum groups. considering we have to choose which one is lynch vulnerable each day.....

Going ahead and clearing up any remaining confusion. You know for a fact that there is a Sicilian Mafia and a Corsican Mafia in the setup.
Reading through, Armlx is starting to smell...right up until this comment by the Mod. Why would the Mod post this? It seems fairly obvious to anyone who is paying attention. And it's not like it will really have a major impact on the game if it isnt remembered. That is, i cannot see how the Mod could possibly make this comment if Armlx was scum, because if he did, it could be considering meddling with what could be a ploy by Armlx.
As such, he's pretty much confirmed town.

BM
Battle Mage wrote:
Santos wrote:I am pretty sure I voted for gun.

Fixed.
This is 'why Santos'.

BM
I have no idea what BM is talking about in either of these posts.

Armlx is helping clear up confusion and our dear mod is confirming Armlx's explanation. I fail to see why this would suggest that Armlx doesn't understand the set-up. I'm also concerned that you don't think not knowing that there are two mafias would affect the game. The entire gimmick revolves around that concept.

And why would somebody pointing out a mod mistake on his vote be suspicious behavior?

I'd put an FoS on you, but it feels more like stupid play than scummy play.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #136 (isolation #10) » Tue Oct 14, 2008 4:53 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Oh, and I just re-read the armlx post before the one that BM posted. Armlx states that the game is a two-scum one, which led to CarnCarn's post saying that he thinks the game might be large enough for one. This confirms that armlx never had any confusion as to whether the game had multiple mafias.

However, re-reading that exchange makes me wonder why CarnCarn wouldn't be sure. Like I said, the entire premise of this game's theme is based on our knowledge that there are two mafias, each of them unkillable via a particular method. If CarnCarn wasn't aware of that very important factor, why hadn't he mentioned it earlier? The fact that we have to vote on an execution method should have been enough of a red flag.

Unvote: Sineish
Vote: CarnCarn
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #142 (isolation #11) » Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:26 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
If CarnCarn wasn't aware of that very important factor, why hadn't he mentioned it earlier?
I don't get this.
His post made it sound like he wasn't sure whether there ae indeed two scum groups. If he wasn't sure, I would assume that it would have come up earlier, such as when he was voting gun.

I'm reading it as him feigning too much ignorance. I don't see how anybody playing this game would not be aware that there are both Sicilians and Corsicans in this game working separately from each other.

CarnCarn said, "Yeah, this game seems large enough to have 2 scum teams." I can't imagine a townie saying that. If he'd said something like "I guess it's possible that there is only one group and the whole premise is just to screw us over," then I might read it as town. But it reads too much like somebody pretending to know less than he does. It sounds more like a bad lie set up as empty speculation than a townie that might have forgotten that this is Choose Carefully Mafia.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #144 (isolation #12) » Tue Oct 14, 2008 7:00 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Save The Dragons wrote:I think if he were scum, he'd be more in tune with the setup, and less likely to use this as a ploy.

I don't like when people attack people because they "could be scum making a ploy..." or "if he's lying about this, he could be scum!" It's not a good tell. Scum aren't gambitmongers that try to lie and cheat their way through the game. Scum are people who blend in with the town. If a gambit fails, then you're standing in the middle of the street with your pants off, but if you fail at blending, you're just standing in the middle of the street.
I'm not reading it as a gambit though. I'm reading it as him being mafia and thus knowing that there is a second group, but overplaying the idea that the rest of us might not know that. It was probably a brain freeze on his part, seeing as it's a central part of the theme. But I think it's more likely that the brain freeze was a "forgot that the town knows that" type than a "forgot that it's the whole point of this game and thus has to be true" type.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #156 (isolation #13) » Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:21 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Save The Dragons wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:
Save The Dragons wrote:Santos makes it clear that he wants to be voting gun. It's a pretty weak tell, since it really could be someone correcting the mod, but it also does make me suspect him (very slightly) to be of the mafia that is immune to gun.

If BM got something different from that, he'll have to say it, but that's what I got from it (after he pointed it out).
That's part of it. But the fact the Mod got confused, could be linked to the only extra mechanic in the game- scum who are immune to certain weapons. Perhaps the Mod automatically put Santos-scum as voting Gun, because he is gun-immune, and this is logical. In other words, the mod error reflects badly in either direction.
Eh...I figured you'd say this, but I was hoping you didn't think this. The mod correcting a mistake is not a tell or an error at all. You're assuming that the mod has memorized the setup up, knows which scum group each player is off the top of his head, and that the mod would think that a scum player would automatically vote for the weapon that doesn't kill them.

Big stretch.
armlx wrote:Uhh, that sounds like a gambit to me. "Lets just hope everyone in the game didn't real the sign up thread hur hur."
QFT. Moses, you're saying he slipped up by saying something like, "maybe I can confuse the town if I say something like XXXX."

That's kind of a gambit.

I think it's more likely to conclude that he got confused with the way it is in every other mafia game, where we don't know how many killing groups there are on D1.

I don't want to exclude that from the realm of possibility, but I personally am going to need something concrete before I consider CarnCarn a possibility.
I'm mostly going to concede right now, though I still have my eye on CarnCarn. However, I still want to point out that I'm looking at it as him pretending not to know for sure, rather than convincing us that there might not be two scum groups. His post wouldn't make much sense if it was intended to mislead us.

It's like this. The game is an informed minority vs. an uninformed majority, right? The informed minority has to blend in with the uninformed majority, which includes pretending to be uninformed. My read on the post has him briefly forgetting that we know there's a second mafia and trying to play dumb like the rest of us.

Having said that:

Unvote, Vote: Santos


Not an OMGUS; rather, I'm bothered by his lack of discussion on the matter. It reeks of a bandwagon vote.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #159 (isolation #14) » Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:25 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Unvote: Gun
Vote: Rope


I have to admit, I'm going to be slightly perturbed if BM's hunch turns out to be right.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #162 (isolation #15) » Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:41 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:Just thought I would also throw it out there...

I have been examining Riceballtail's play and I am impressed with his performance. I'm not sure whether I want to follow it or not. There is nothing ambiguous at all in his posting skills. Its either a very good scum poster, or a very careful power role. I aspire to play this way :p
Do you mean in this game? Because the one other game that I've read that featured him was Hot Potato Mafia and I'll have to disagree with your assessment on him.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #165 (isolation #16) » Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:16 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:Yes, I mean this game.

The ability appears worthless; albeit I believe the claim entirely.
In that case, why bring it up? If you think he's powered, why draw attention to him if he's been playing carefully?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #175 (isolation #17) » Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:40 am

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
I don't know what the whole point of this ability is either. My guess is that the mod just wants to throw in extra confusion. I don't really see anything I could talk about at night with armlx that I couldn't during the day.
This. I don't even talk with confirmed alignment masons much usually.

I'm down with the Santos wagon. The last 4 posts have been buddying, going from poking suspicion at my/CC's role to "believing it entirely", and distancing from a wagon.

Vote Santos
Don't forget his raging hard-on for Riceballtail.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #191 (isolation #18) » Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:16 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
Did you 'Choose Carefully' in saying that or did you just completely hop the fence and come to that conclusion?
Realistic Mafia

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7882

That is all.

The general conclusion would be if 4 of us had that role that in order for the mafia groups to be balanced relative to each other either all 4 people with the role would have to be town or exactly 2 scum, one from each group. Its possible that they would be arranged S1-S2 and T-T, but T-S1 and T-S2 is more likely on design principle.
It's possible that all four of you could be scum.

In any case, Santos's quasi-RC doesn't affect my thoughts on his scumminess either way, though it does make me want to lynch him more (though just a little). Lynching one of the four would give us a way to lean on the other three. Obviously, we'd need confirmation on the ID of Santos's partner first.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #193 (isolation #19) » Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:39 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
It's possible that all four of you could be scum.
How? If we were scum such as two groups of S1-S2. that would be dumb as the joke would be obvious and the whole game would be decided by whether the scum wanted to start killing each other at a given point or not (I was in a game like that forever ago, it was not fun, too much swings on how spiteful people are).

The other scenario would be 2 groups of people just straight up lying. Do you believe this is likely?
I think it's very possible that at least one, if not both, of the groups are lovered up, which would give them incentive not to start killing each other like that.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #197 (isolation #20) » Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:39 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
I think it's very possible that at least one, if not both, of the groups are lovered up, which would give them incentive not to start killing each other like that.
That's even worse. Penalizing your win condition for the poor play of another win conditions?
I don't follow you.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #200 (isolation #21) » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:14 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Riceballtail wrote:ROCKS FALL EVERYBODY DIES

Continue?
Thank you for the insightful input.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #205 (isolation #22) » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:34 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
Don't lovers usually know they're lovers?
Right and I have no indication we are. I think Moses le fou is assuming that if we were both scum we would possibly lie about anything.
Yeah, the assumption is that you wouldn't tell us even if you aren't both scum.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #207 (isolation #23) » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:48 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
Yeah, the assumption is that you wouldn't tell us even if you aren't both scum.
Really? Why would I have incentive to lie about that as town?
It'd make both you and Carn targets. If you're both town, either mafia can target either one of you and take out two enemies. If one of you is scum, the other mafia can do likewise.

And I wouldn't look at it so much as lying as withholding information for the moment.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #313 (isolation #24) » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:23 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Save The Dragons wrote:Really? Because there are a lot of ambiguities I have not seen answered.

Why did you vote Moses, citing as your evidence for voting him a bandwagon/pressure vote, when Moses had no votes at the time, and you didn't give any reason for wanting to pressure Moses?
Actually, Riceballtail had voted for me when Santos jumped on. Actually, that's what brought my eye to Santos -- it felt like he was trying to get a wagon on me because pressure had just begun to shift his way because of the lynch method discussion BM brought up. Coupled with his lack of explanation for the vote. I read it as him going "Errr, enough about me -- let's talk about somebody else!"
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #380 (isolation #25) » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:02 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

I'd like to hear from everybody not voting for Santos why they are not doing so. That is, I want somebody besides Santos to plead a decent case for him.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #406 (isolation #26) » Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:05 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:Corsicans lynched by one method as opposed to the Sicilians being lynched by another. So I voted for rope because if you're going to lynch a townie, I might as well vote for how a townie should properly die: lynch.
So you're saying that you've been running around in circles for the sake of write-up flavor?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #418 (isolation #27) » Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:13 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Riceballtail wrote:
Riceballtail wrote:
UNVOTE; VOTE:Armlx
FoS:Moses


Thought: Armlx is trying to get a name out of him to see if it's a scumbuddy, so he can figure out if CC is also therefore scum or not.
This doesn't spell out why I'm voting Armlx?
Armlx's given reason for doing what he's doing seems valid enough, so I doubt you're right. And even if he is, doesn't it help us for him to scumhunt? Even if he's scum himself, him taking out opposing scum still helps us.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #426 (isolation #28) » Sun Oct 26, 2008 8:19 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:Waiting for a dead Santos.
This.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #462 (isolation #29) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:48 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

I put my vote on Santos a while back for the reasons armlx keeps reiterating. Granted, I have my doubts about him being scum, but nobody else comes close to being on my scumdar like he does at this point.

Furthermore, I think it'll do us good to get information on these neighbors. Armlx's symmetry argument is spot-on, simply because of game balance. But here's what happens if we lynch Santos:

If he's town -- Our aim goes directly to oEJo. He's either scum or both armlx and CarnCarn are.

If he's scum -- Once again, our aim goes directly to oEJo. Either he's scum and both armlx and CarnCarn are cleared or oEJo is scum and one of the two is as well. Furthermore, we know what whichever one is scum is on Santos's opposing team. If we lynch Santos with rope and he dies, we know to kill the other neighborscum with a gun and vice versa.

Granted, this is what armlx has been saying all along, but by lynching Santos (and finding out for sure whether he's scum), we're cutting the number of theoretical possiblities in half.

If somebody can give a foolproof reason why we should lynch another of the neighbors, I might do it (though the arguments for lynching armlx haven't been as convincing as those against Santos), but today, nothing will help us more than lynching one of the neighbors.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #464 (isolation #30) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:23 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:Hmm, I'm not convinced on this plan. Why?

Oh, because its my neck in the noose (or gun to the head) at this point!
Could you give us a solid defense, explaining why armlx, oEJo or CarnCarn would make better lynch fodder?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #483 (isolation #31) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:30 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Save The Dragons wrote:
FOS: Moses
.

Sounds like you're more sure of oEJo than Santos, considering he's likely to be scum in your eyes regardless of Santos's alignment. So why not vote him?

Goddamnit. The Santos wagon is riddled with scum.

ZTR, HP [leaves], oEJo, Moses, even armlx blipped my radar for something minor.
hp [leaves] wrote:My partner can come and reveal himself when he wants.
Sup. I was like, "WHOA WHAT THE HECK DID YOU JUST DO" at first...but then I realized it was a breadcrumb, and I was like, "Oh. cool."

Hp and I are neighbors
.

There would be no S1-S1 or S2-S2 neighbor groups. And fakeclaiming masons on day 1 is really bad, especially considering they know one of the two can be killed. Especially without foreknowledge of other pairs.
Don't get me wrong. I feel like Santos is the best lynch choice for today. But I think that from there, we take what we know and apply it to his neighbor. Howeber, there being a third neighbor group completely throws my original logic out the window.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #531 (isolation #32) » Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:31 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

CarnCarn wrote:I guess, but that basically amounts to giving scum a safeclaim. Not that that is anything strange in itself, but, for some reason I doubt it would be given that way.

I really don't think Santos is scum because his claim was the actual role name (capitalized N, spelled exactly the way it is in my own role), not like oEJo, who not only only choose not to capitalize, but also to use a different spelling. Even if he didn't think that is the way it should be spelled, why would he use something different from what the mod gave? Unless he didn't realize that Neighbor is a role name claim, and not just an ability.

I don't think scum would know the role name of their mason partner; it just seems unfair. More likely, the scum are just latching on to the "neighbor" term and trying to subtly pass it off as their own role name.
Remember way back at the beginning of the thread when you expressed "mild suspicion" towards armlx because, as your neighbor (neighbour, whatever), he was your unconfirmed mason? Or remember all those places where we discussed the various formats in which mafia could be allotted amongst the neighbors? Why on earth would you suddenly suspect that neighbors can't be scum?

And don't forget, a scummy neighbor almost definitely does not know the alignment of his neighbor. Theoretically, scum-neighbor could just as likely be masoned with opposing scum as town.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #555 (isolation #33) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 9:12 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

I doubt there's an SK. How would it work exactly? He'd have to choose whether his kill works on townies, Sicilians OR Corsicans? And what would kill him at night? Or lynch him for that matter? I guess it's in the realm of possibility, but I think an SK (or any third-party role) would make the game too convoluted
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #579 (isolation #34) » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:06 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:Save the Dragons just sounds really annoyed that I am not dead yet. What could be more suspect?
For what it's worth, I'm annoyed by your continued survival. But that's partially because I think night actions would shed some light onto what's going on.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #590 (isolation #35) » Thu Nov 06, 2008 11:35 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:
For what it's worth, I'm annoyed by your continued survival.
So you've just been ready to lynch like something 15 pages ago, amirite? :p
But that's partially because I think night actions would shed some light onto what's going on.
Well, I believe you're right, but what about speculating on what can ALSO happen at night? -
Does anyone want to fathom the odds that the Sicilians and Corsicans will be hacking each other up tonight as well as town players? Is it possible to work out some percentage factors there since we have already cranked the numbers on the hypotheticals regarding the mason groups?
You jumped to #1 on my scumlist 15 pages ago and you've only confirmed my suspicions. So, kinda-sorta?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #611 (isolation #36) » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:40 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Umm, sorry I was wrong, Santos?

Vote: oEJo
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #682 (isolation #37) » Mon Nov 10, 2008 8:00 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Is BM trying to play this like Stump Mafia?

BM: The problem is that if oEJo is town and gets himself modkilled, he WON'T BE TOWN ANYMORE. By "being protown" by posting his PM, he will forfeit his invested interest in wanting the town to win.

Furthermore, you're assuming that bird would continue to keep day running after the second modkill. There's nothing keeping him from ending day once he performs his second modkill.

And ribwich: we might as well try to lynch oEJo anyways. If the opposing mafia wants to kill him THAT badly, they could do so if the lynch fails due to improper weaponry.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #731 (isolation #38) » Wed Nov 12, 2008 9:48 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:What has been decided on the symmetry theory? I don't trust it, but I wouldn't want to ignore it either. Its really hard to decide. The only thing that really put me off was oEJo's lack of effort to explain his vote, but that has already been discussed and I'm over that issue. Ah well.
Most everybody is for the idea of symmetry on the principle that it favor one mafia over the other if it weren't. If it were, say, T-T T-S1 S1-S2, that would give the first mafia two people to potentially manipulate compared to the second mafia's one (which would be especially unfair in that instance because the second mafia would be trying to manipulate scum instead of town).

On another note, I'm going to
FoS: ribwich
, though I still think oEJo is the better candidate.

And while I have your attention. . . ribwich, why did you say earlier that you had reason to believe that there was a fourth set of neighbours? Do you really think that HALF the players would be in some sort of neighbour set?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #733 (isolation #39) » Thu Nov 13, 2008 12:14 am

Post by Moses le fou »

For the sake of a paper trail:
ribwich wrote:Alright, first off I'm going to apologize for not delivering on the post by post analysis I had previously promised. I was working on it, but it was just taking way too long to do.

Regarding the neighbor roles, I don't think we should go too much into it.
There's just too many possibilites for what could happen even with 3 groups (And I have suspicions that there could be a fourth group as well.)


1. T-T T-S1 T-S2
2. T-T T-T S1-S2
3. T-T T-T T-T
4. T-S1 T-S2 T-SK
5. T-S1 T-S2 S1-S2

There's some that are much more likely than others, but in the end it turns into a matter of outguessing the mod. Where I do think this will come in handy though is in trying to figure out which lynch method to use later on in the game. Once we have somebody that is confirmed scum, if we suspect another person in the neighbor groups, we can use the symmetry to find out what they're immune to. I don't think we should use the symmetry to find out WHO to target, but instead should use it to figure out HOW to target them.

I don't think there's anything that we can get out of the mod edits. The mod has made other mistakes in the vote count, and I think trying to analyze what caused his mistake will lead us nowhere.

I do believe Santos is scum for many of the other reasons people have brought up. There is one post he has made though that everyone else seemed to have disliked for an entirely different reason than me though.
Santos wrote:I have been examining Riceballtail's play and I am impressed with his performance. I'm not sure whether I want to follow it or not. There is nothing ambiguous at all in his posting skills. Its either a very good scum poster, or a very careful power role. I aspire to play this way :p
Other people commented on how this looks like Santos is just trying to buddy up to Riceball, but to me it looks like subtle rolefishing. If it was rolefishing, I don't think it did a very good job, because there didn't seem to be any reactions from Riceball to imply that he has a powerrole. But it does look to me that this was Santos's intentions: To get Riceball to slip about having a power role.

As for which lynch method to use, I believe the gun would be the best option. Santos's initial vote was most likely little more than a random vote. But his vote for rope later on seemed like he was trying to trick everybody into thinking that only rope will kill scum. Of course, WIFOM is involved, but I honestly think he was not thinking that far ahead. His post to me looked like he saw pressure was being put on him, so he attempted to find whatever reason he could to get people to vote for rope.

Vote: Santos
Vote: Gun
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #753 (isolation #40) » Thu Nov 13, 2008 10:21 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Unvote: Rope

Vote: Gun


If I were scum and jumping on a strong bandwagon, I'd vote for the method that would kill me. If we lynch town, it works either way. If we lynch opposing mafia, the lynch would fail and it'd basically force the town to try the same lynch again the next day.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #764 (isolation #41) » Fri Nov 14, 2008 10:14 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

I think the cop has to investigate somebody and specify whether he wants to see if the target is Corsican or Sicilian. So, the cop could investigate oEJo to see if he's Sicilian and the result could come back negative, but that doesn't dismiss him from being Corsican.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #787 (isolation #42) » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:06 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

SocioPath wrote:
Empking wrote:I expect this will be a boring day..
armlx wrote:oEJo is obviously the lynch today, but there's no reason to just rush to it without letting everyone make a comment or 2 about stuff.
Like for example, how STD is scum, and Santos MK II is his scum buddy.

All of day 1, STD his play was pretty good townie play...right up until it was revealed he was a neighbor. From that point, it was less of an uninformed majority viewpoint from him, to a more of knowing what was going on.

The blatentness of trying to look as uniformed as he did, while every other neighbor didn't even try to feign ignorance, rubs me the wrong way.

Most likely scum trying to appear as uninformed as possible, but not knowing where to draw the line.

His guity conscience only became more apparent with his reaction to me saying his name.
Do you think STD is buddies with oEJo or on the opposing mafia?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #789 (isolation #43) » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:20 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Oh, and
Vote: Gun


I'll put my vote on oEJo after we've had more discussion.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #799 (isolation #44) » Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:54 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

oEJo wrote:
ribwich wrote:
Unvote: oEJo


There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.


oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?
Yes, I don't have a night action.
Y'know, this would have been a good time to mention that you were unlynchable.
oEJo wrote:
Moses le fou wrote:I think the cop has to investigate somebody and specify whether he wants to see if the target is Corsican or Sicilian. So, the cop could investigate oEJo to see if he's Sicilian and the result could come back negative, but that doesn't dismiss him from being Corsican.
I'm being lynched today.

Anyway, IMO, stop directing the cop, he'll investigate the right person i'm sure
And this would have been a good time to say that you WEREN'T being lynched.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #823 (isolation #45) » Mon Nov 24, 2008 7:40 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

CarnCarn wrote:Moses, can you clarify on this post from yesterday? What made you change to Gun?
Moses le fou wrote:
Unvote: Rope

Vote: Gun


If I were scum and jumping on a strong bandwagon, I'd vote for the method that would kill me. If we lynch town, it works either way. If we lynch opposing mafia, the lynch would fail and it'd basically force the town to try the same lynch again the next day.
Let's say I'm Sicilian and thus immune to guns. There's a big wagon piling up on you. I know you're not part of my mafia, but don't know whether you're scum or town. If we lynch you with gun (which again, I'm immune to in this hypothetical situation), I can be certain it will kill you. However, if we lynch you with rope, you'll only die if you're town. I think it might be in scum's best interest for lynches to fail initially, because it forces us to repeat them the next day, like we're doing to oEJo.

My theory is based on the idea that the town is less prone to effectively scumhunt when there's such an obvious lynch on the table. Look at how sparse our conversation has been today and how we're already at L-1.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #826 (isolation #46) » Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:22 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

CarnCarn wrote:
Moses le fou wrote:
CarnCarn wrote:Moses, can you clarify on this post from yesterday? What made you change to Gun?
Moses le fou wrote:
Unvote: Rope

Vote: Gun


If I were scum and jumping on a strong bandwagon, I'd vote for the method that would kill me. If we lynch town, it works either way. If we lynch opposing mafia, the lynch would fail and it'd basically force the town to try the same lynch again the next day.
Let's say I'm Sicilian and thus immune to guns. There's a big wagon piling up on you. I know you're not part of my mafia, but don't know whether you're scum or town. If we lynch you with gun (which again, I'm immune to in this hypothetical situation), I can be certain it will kill you. However, if we lynch you with rope, you'll only die if you're town. I think it might be in scum's best interest for lynches to fail initially, because it forces us to repeat them the next day, like we're doing to oEJo.

My theory is based on the idea that the town is less prone to effectively scumhunt when there's such an obvious lynch on the table. Look at how sparse our conversation has been today and how we're already at L-1.
That's an interesting idea, sure. Although I'm not sure why mafia A would prefer a no-lynch to a lynch of mafia B or town. It
could
provide one more night kill, but the no-lynched person would also make good vig-fodder. I'm not sure why mafia A would try that D1.
This is perhaps getting off track and speculating about scum's decision-making behavior, so I think I'll leave this issue for now.

I also think it's time for a hammer:
Vote: oEJo


I will wait for ZTR, STD and ZazieR's comments tomorrow, since I don't foresee them changing my mind today.
Well, they would get a town-lynch no matter what method they choose. However, if we try to lynch somebody and it fails, it benefits the opposing mafia because that person will be the town's focus the following day. And while you point out the idea that a vig could take that person out, I should note that it didn't happen last night with oEJo, and even if it did, that still works for the opposing mafia as that means the vig wasn't going to target one of their own.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #852 (isolation #47) » Mon Dec 01, 2008 3:50 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Don't forget that power roles are weakened in this set-up. As bird explained, power roles have to specify which scum group they want their actions to work on. A doctor could protect Player X from the Sicilians, but if the Corsicans try to kill Player X, the doctor is useless. A cop could investigate scum every single night, but if he does so assuming the wrong mafia, he's going to get nothing but innocent results.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #868 (isolation #48) » Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:29 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Why would have Puta signed up for a game with ZazieR in the first place?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #874 (isolation #49) » Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:20 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
Moses le fou wrote:Why would have Puta signed up for a game with ZazieR in the first place?
Elaborate plz?
Kairyuu wrote:Second, I have a fairly good idea as to why PutaPuta flaked here and not in other games. I think it's ZazieR. I remember randomly stumbling accross a game with the both of them in it, and PutaPuta expressed displeasure right off the bat upon discovering that ZazieR was there too. I believe that the accusation was something like PutaPuta accusing ZazieR of 'being a dick' to him/her in previous games. It's just speculation, but I see that as the most likely reason, especially considering no one had suspected any of them when they left.
I would think that if somebody had that big of a problem with another player (where that person would quit games the player was in), that person would not replace into a game where said player was playing.

I'm not necessarily saying that I buy BM's theory that Puta dropped from this game because he's scum, but Kairyuu's counter-theory that he dropped because of ZazieR doesn't hold much water.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #875 (isolation #50) » Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:40 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

armlx wrote:
So you are saying that we can't use anything he does as a tell because he's new?
No, I'm saying the tell that is being relied on just off that post is weak at best, even more so in context of his game experience.
What do you think about his follow-up post where he says that he signed up for a game that he doesn't understand at all? Santos didn't get the whole choosing a kill-method thing and he turned up town, but how much of a free pass can we give him?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #895 (isolation #51) » Sat Dec 06, 2008 9:34 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

CarnCarn wrote:
hp [leaves] wrote:Detspeed, could you name the win condition for the town, please?
I don't know exactly what you are hoping to achieve with this question, but it has potential to get someone modkilled.
FoS: hp [leaves]
This. It sounds like he's trying to trick the newbie into walking into a kill.

Vote: hp [leaves]
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #914 (isolation #52) » Mon Dec 08, 2008 9:18 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:So hp leaves is on the suspicious list now because he asked for information that everyone should essentially already know?
He asked for information that could have gotten Detspeed modkilled. You do remember your first run at this game, right?

And Kairyuu brings up a good point: Why were you suggesting we not lynch oEJo?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #925 (isolation #53) » Tue Dec 09, 2008 5:25 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:Idea: Cop investigates oEJo tonight and if he is NOT scum, then we move on. If he is scum, then we lynch him tomorrow?

Thoughts----
This is the post in question. Why wouldn't we lynch him that day? Why would you have our cop out himself to confirm a player that we were all fairly confident on being scum? Who would have preferred we lynch that day? Or would you have preferred we go into a no-lynch?
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #946 (isolation #54) » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:31 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:Apparently people don't realize I was taking the role of TWO different roles.

1) I was lynched as a townie
2) Now you're saying that I'm scum

Where is your proof? You keep showing me quotes from when I was 'Santos I' not Santos II. Hello?
No, that quote is after you came back, but still in Day 1. You argued that instead of lynching him, we have the cop investigate him and if the cop gets a guilty result, he tells us.

The thing is, I don't even think you're oEJo's scum buddy. I just think you're playing well. But you obviously don't understand the argument that's being presented to you, so I'm trying to help you clear your name.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #1179 (isolation #55) » Fri Jan 23, 2009 2:23 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

Santos wrote:I claimed scum because I was trying to divert the attention away from the other scum. I just wanted a scum victory.
You do realize that they weren't on your side, right? So you went out of your way to lose. For the second time this game.
User avatar
Moses le fou
Moses le fou
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Moses le fou
Goon
Goon
Posts: 157
Joined: October 8, 2008

Post Post #1182 (isolation #56) » Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:02 pm

Post by Moses le fou »

CarnCarn wrote:
Moses le fou wrote:
Santos wrote:I claimed scum because I was trying to divert the attention away from the other scum. I just wanted a scum victory.
You do realize that they weren't on your side, right? So you went out of your way to lose. For the second time this game.
That.

Also, I would have assumed the cop would investigate the neighbors for the opposite mafia of oEJo (Corsican). That way, you could definately clear someone as town (unless one neighbor pair happened to be S1-S2, which wasn't likely).
I thought about that, but I thought S1-S2 was still a definite possibility. Also, I thought catching definite scum was more important than clearing townies (that is, if I were to claim, the former would be more worth announcing than the latter) and it'd take three nights to go through the other neighbor pairs.

Return to “Completed Large Theme Games”